2014/15 FIFTH SESSION OF THE AMIS GLOBAL FOOD MARKET INFORMATION GROUP. MEXICO CITY May 2014
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1 /21/214 Market tsituation ti and Outlook: Rice 214/ FIFTH SESSION OF THE AMIS GLOBAL FOOD MARKET INFORMATION GROUP MEXICO CITY 2 21 May Rice production growth to remain subdued in 214 for the third consecutive year million tonnes Global Rice Paddy Production and Area millions hectares Production Area Rice Production: Major Players F 214/21 Change World China (mainland) India Indonesia Bangladesh Viet Nam Thailand Myanmar Philippines Brazil Japan United States Pakistan Countries ranked according to their position in average production. 1
2 /21/214 An El Niño looming in the second half of 214 Early May CPC/IRI Consensus Probabilistic ENSO Forecast Oceanic Niño Index Adapted from: NOAA Climate Prediction Center Weekly ENSO Evolution, Status and Prediction Presentation, 12 May 214. El Niño Neutral La Niña Two important drivers: Thailand and China Thailand: Farm gate prices and procurement under paddy pledging programme Million tonnes Baht/tonne * China (Mainland): Government procurement prices for paddy US$/tonne % Paddy Pledges * Main crop pledges only. Price at farm gate Annual % Change (Yuan) Intermediate and Late Indica Rice 2
3 /21/214 Fast expansion of trade in 214 International Rice Market Deepens Global Rice Trade and Shares of Production Trade in rice forecast to expand by almost % to 9. million tonnes in 214. Trade has been growing at over % per year since 28. Rice trade to account for 8% of world output in 214, against less than 4% on average in the 198 s. Exports Shares of Production Thailand regains competitiveness % Major Rice Exporters' Shares in Global Trade Thailand Viet Nam Others United States Pakistan India F Rice Exports: Major Players F 214/21 Change World India Thailand Viet Nam United States.... Pakistan Cambodia Brazil Uruguay Argentina Myanmar Others Countries ranked according to their position in average exports.
4 /21/214 Purchases by traditional importers to recover strongly in 214 Rice Imports by Region million tonnes, milled eq F EUROPE AFRICA FAR EAST NEAR EAST ASIA LATIN AMERICA & C. OTHERS Rice Imports: Major Players F 214/21 Change World Nigeria China (mainland) Indonesia Iran Isl. Rep Iraq Saudi Arabia South Africa Côte d Ivoire EU Philippines Others Countries ranked according to their position in average imports. Several countries expected to increase imports or keep them high Philippines: i Rice Stocks and Wholesale l Prices China and Viet Nam Price Differential i Million tonnes Pesos per kilogram US$/tonne Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 1 Jul 1 Oct 1 Jan 14 Apr 14 jan 7 jun 7 Nov 7 Apr 8 sep 8 Feb 9 jul 9 dec 9 may 1 oct 1 Mar 11 aug 11 jan 12 jun 12 Nov 12 sep 1 Feb 14 NFA Stock Commercial Stock Price Differential Viet Nam 2%, f.o.b. Household Stock Wholesale price Hunan Indica, wholesale 4
5 /21/214 Global rice production to match utilization in 214/, but world and major exporters stocks to remain high Global rice production, utilization and stocks Five Major Exporters Stocks and stocks to disappearance ratio million tonnes, milled eq. 22 million tonnes, milled eq / 2/ 2/7 27/8 28/9 Stocks (left axis) Production (right axis) 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/1 21/14 214/ Utilization (right axis) Closing Stocks Stocks to disappearance Ratio International rice prices following diverging trends FAO All Rice Price Index in Nominal and Real Terms FAO Rice Price Sub Indices 22 24= = apr-12 jun-12 aug-12 oct-12 dec-12 feb-1 apr-1 jun-1 aug-1 oct-1 dec-1 feb-14 apr Real Value Nominal Value Indica: High Quality Japonica Indica: Low Quality Aromatic
6 /21/214 Thailand behind the decline in Indica prices US$/tonne Selected Lower Quality Indica Prices US$/tonne 7 Selected Higher Quality Indica Prices 4 4 Thailand 2% India IR 2% Pakistan Irri 2% Viet Nam 2% 4 United States N.2 4% Uruguay % Thailand 1% B Viet Nam % 4 Jun 1 Aug 1 Oct 1 Dec 1 Feb 14 Apr 14 Jun 1 Aug 1 Oct 1 Dec 1 Feb 14 Apr 14 Challenges and risks in the short run Exogenous factors: energy prices, exchange rates, prices of other cereals, GDP growth, social and political environment Fundamentals: Risk of possible setbacks affecting crops El Niño Policies: 1. Thai pledging programme and size of releases from government stocks 2. India s National Food Security Act and impacts on the country s export availabilities. EU CAP reform, new US Farm Bill, Japan rice policy reform proposal 4. Announced cut of Nigeria s import tariffs. China s stricter enforcement of the WTO import quota (Indica/Japonica)
7 /21/214 Thank you 1 Historical El Niño and La Niña Episodes Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 22 Most models predict ENSO-neutral (-.ºC to +.ºC) to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (AMJ). After that, models predict either ENSOneutral or El Niño (greater or equal to +.ºC) during the rest of Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center Weekly ENSO Evolution, Status, and Prediction Presentation, 12 May
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TransGraph Research Consulting Technology
Research Consulting Technology Agriculture Metals Energy Dairy Currency Economy Brands Medium term outlook on Lead July 217 2 Market Recap LME Lead remained weak last month but recovered towards the end