The State of the World s Macroeconomy
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1 The State of the World s Macroeconomy Marcelo Giugale Senior Director Global Practice for Macroeconomics & Fiscal Management Washington DC, December 3 rd 2014
2 Content 1. What s Happening? Growing Concerns About Growth 2. What s Coming? Old and New Risks 3. How to Deal with It? The Return of Structural Reforms 4. What Are The New Conceptual Issues? 2
3 1. What s Happening? Growing Concerns About Growth 3
4 Percent Rich Countries Are Barely Growing 10 Real GDP (annual growth; ) Advanced (GDP weighted) Emerging Developing (GDP weighted) Low income (GDP weighted) World (GDP weighted) World (Poverty weighted) Source: World Bank using IMF WEO data 4
5 And Too Many LICs and MICs Are Slowing Down Share of countries with decelerating growth (% of the group) 70% 66% 60% 50% LICs MICs 48% 50% 47% 53% 40% 41% 41% 34% 30% 28% 25% 20% 16% 16% 10% 0% Source: IMF WEO data 5
6 Commodity Prices Are Falling 180 Index Jan 2010 = Non-energy Energy Food Metals and Minerals 40 Jan-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Apr-10 Jan-11 Oct-11 Jul-12 Apr-13 Jan-14 Oct-14 Source: World Bank DECPG 6
7 With Oil Prices Tumbling Dollars per barrel Brent Oil Price WTI Oil Price Nov May Nov May Nov May Nov-14 Source: EIA 7
8 Volatility Is Not Getting Better Basis points EMBI Sovereign Spreads Emerging Europe China Emerging Asia excluding China Latin America Jan-10 1-Sep-10 1-May-11 1-Jan-12 1-Sep-12 1-May-13 1-Jan-14 1-Sep-14 Source: World Bank: Developing Trends 8
9 Feb-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 And Appetite for Developing-Country Portfolios is Weak 8 Portfolio flows to developing-country bond and equity funds (6-week moving average, $billions) Source: World Bank: Developing Trends 9
10 So Growth Forecasts for 2015 Are Being Trimmed 8 GDP Growth Projections (%) July '14 Oct ' Advanced United States Euro Area Emerging-Developing China Source: Find My Friends using the IMF World Economic Outlook 10
11 2. What Is Coming? Old and New Risks 11
12 The Global Risks We Know 1. US Raises Rates Too Fast - Capital Flow Reversals 2. Europe Back to Recession No Action/Coordination 3. Japan Can t Fire the Third Arrow 4. Hard Landing in China 5. Conflict Spreads (ISIS, Ukraine, Ebola, etc). 12
13 What They Mean For Developing Countries External environment Smaller buffers Low commodity prices Deterioration in current account balances Slower trade growth Deterioration in fiscal balances Volatility in capital flows 13
14 Buffer I: Worse Current Account Balances Averages Change Advanced Emerging/ Developing
15 Buffer II: Worse Fiscal Balances Averages Change Advanced Emerging/ Developing
16 Buffer III: Slightly Better Government Debt Averages Change Advanced Emerging /Developing (excluding HIPC) Emerging /Developing
17 Buffer III: But Total Debt Continues to Rise Global debt-to-gdp ratio, Note Global debt includes household debt, government debt and non-financial corporates Source: Geneva Report on the World Economy, International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies (ICMB)and Center for Economic Policy and Research (CEPR) 17
18 Buffer III: But Total Debt Continues to Rise Global debt-to-gdp ratio, Note Global debt includes household debt, government debt and non-financial corporates Source: Geneva Report on the World Economy, International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies (ICMB)and Center for Economic Policy and Research (CEPR) 18
19 3. How to Deal with It? The Return of Structural Reforms 19
20 Remove labor market frictions and subsidies Improve the business environment Focus on Structural Reforms Boost public investments, but efficiently Deepen integration Create fiscal space by targeting subsidies 20
21 How Expensive Is to Change Jobs? 21
22 Do We Work where We Are More Productive? Contribution to GDP Growth (Percentage Points) Productivity Growth Within Sectors Reallocation of Resources Across Sectors s 2000s 1990s 2000s 1990s 2000s 1990s 2000s 1990s 2000s Asia CEE LAC MENA SSA Source: IMF (2013) 22
23 Gambia, The Burundi Togo Chad Sierra Leone Haiti Guinea Tanzania Uganda Kenya Benin Cambodia Mozambique Ethiopia Malawi Madagascar Bangladesh Burkina Faso Afghanistan Mali Rwanda Belize Congo, Rep. Solomon Islands West Bank and Gaza Yemen, Rep. Lao PDR São Tomé and Principe Senegal Gabon Sudan Swaziland Nigeria Djibouti Kyrgyz Republic Egypt, Arab Rep. Indonesia Azerbaijan Pakistan Albania Montenegro Jamaica Mauritania Mongolia Kosovo El Salvador Namibia Philippines Côte d'ivoire Ghana Zambia Turkey Lesotho Ukraine Serbia Belarus Jordan Moldova Botswana Kazakhstan Armenia Bolivia Peru Thailand Tunisia Colombia Brazil South Africa How Well Do We Manage Public Investment? 4.0 Public Investment Management Index LICS MICS LIC average MIC average Source: Dabla-Norris, Brumby, Kyobe, Mills and Papageorgiou (2011) 23
24 How Costly Are Energy Subsidies? 2011 Number of countries Total fuel subsidies (US$ bn) Percent of GDP Percent of Revenue Developing Countries Regions East Asia and the Pacific Indonesia Malaysia Brunei Darussalam Europe and Central Asia Turkmenistan Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Latin America and the Caribbean Ecuador Trinidad and Tobago Venezuela Middle East and North Africa Egypt Iraq South Asia Bangladesh India Sri Lanka Sub-Saharan Africa Angola Cameroon Nigeria Net oil trade balance Exporter Non-exporter Source: IMF 24
25 Who Benefits from Energy Subsidies? 70 Percent of total subsidies 60 Gasoline Diesel LPG Kerosene Bottom Quintile Second Quintile Third Quintile Fourth Quintile Top Quintile Source: Arze del Granado and others,
26 Integrate! Trade and FDI Go Together 26
27 Now Is the Time to Treat Investors Well Distance to frontier Ease of Doing Business East Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa OECD high income Starting a business Enforcing contracts Resolving insolvency Source: World Bank 27
28 4. New Conceptual Issues 28
29 New Conceptual Issues 1. Growth & Inclusion, Efficiency & Equity, Markets & People 2. Monetary Policy: Dealing with Divergence 3. The Infrastructure Push : Dreams and Realities 4. The Role of Emerging Markets in Dev. Countries Growth 5. The Elasticity of Trade to Global Growth 6. Debut Issues and Frontier Markets 7. Fiscal Federalism in Low-Income Countries 29
30 Summary, in a Tweet: Slower Global Growth, With More Risks. Structural Reforms Are Back. #BeNiceToYourMacroeconomist 30
31 @Marcelo_WB 31
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