Emerging Markets Where are the Yield Opportunities? Using Demographics to reduce the uncertainty

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1 1 Emerging Markets Where are the Yield Opportunities? Using Demographics to reduce the uncertainty Global Demographics Limited October 2018

2 Can Demographics Reduce Uncertainty/Error in GDP Forecasts For the decade 2007 to 2017 the top 10 counties in this table achieved an average real GDP growth of 5.8% pa. The next 10 achieved an average of 3.4% The remaining 9 achieved 1.1% Could demographics have helped segment them accordingly? Total GDP Using Growth Demographics China 8.3% India 7.0% Bangladesh 6.3% Viet Nam 6.0% Philippines 5.6% Indonesia 5.5% Kenya 5.0% Turkey 5.0% Peru 4.9% Malaysia 4.7% Nigeria 4.3% Egypt 3.9% Pakistan 3.7% Colombia 3.6% Saudi Arabia 3.6% Poland 3.3% Republic of Korea 3.1% Thailand 3.0% Chile 3.0% United Arab Emirates 2.9% Mexico 2.0% Bulgaria 1.9% South Africa 1.8% Argentina 1.6% Brazil 1.5% Czechia 1.5% Russian Federation 1.1% Hungary 1.0% Greece -2.9% 2

3 3 Demographic s Influence on Economic Outcomes Working Age Population Employed Persons Education Profile Propensity to be employed Total GDP and GDP Growth Productivity per Worker Accumulated Fixed Capital Investment per worker Proportion paid in wages Individual Affluence

4 4 The Global Picture of Growth of Working Age Population Appreciate that the Affluent Markets have a different definition of what is working age. Increased life expectancy, better health and wellness and better education all combine together with pension insecurity to encourage people to stay in work longer. 23% of American Males aged 70 to 74 years are still in full time employment. For Japan it is 25%

5 5 Working Age Population Growth Note- China: There is a dichotomy between urban and rural workforces. Urban is growing and accounts for 90% of productivity growth, Note the EU effect free movement of labour is depleting some of the Emerging Markets of their key resource labour and particularly skilled labour. Poland s labour force is down 7% from what it would otherwise have been due to migration and that is probably 10%+ of the skilled labour force lost to that country. Working Age Persons Working age 000s CAGR as % of Total pop Saudi Arabia 24,042 32, % 71% Kenya 28,270 38, % 56% Nigeria 101, , % 53% United Arab Emirates 8,369 11, % 86% Pakistan 119, , % 60% Egypt 60,105 71, % 62% Philippines 66,673 77, % 63% Malaysia 22,150 25, % 70% Turkey 53,843 61, % 67% Bangladesh 109, , % 66% South Africa 37,349 42, % 66% Mexico 85,917 97, % 66% India 887,498 1,003, % 66% Peru 21,062 23, % 65% Indonesia 178, , % 67% Argentina 28,332 31, % 64% Colombia 33,820 36, % 69% Viet Nam 66,722 70, % 70% Brazil 146, , % 70% Chile 12,389 12, % 69% China 999, , % 72% Thailand 49,140 47, % 71% Czechia 6,975 6, % 66% Republic of Korea 37,008 34, % 73% Hungary 6,534 6, % 67% Russian Federation 98,617 90, % 68% Poland 26,120 23, % 68% Greece 7,234 6, % 65% Bulgaria 4,608 4, % 65%

6 6 Workforce Capability - Education Education is a critical enabler but also aligns with Productivity. The 31 countries below 200 all have low productivity as well. But: The relationship with Productivity is not linear. Overall Education Profile is slow to change but can be reliably forecast It has a lagged effect on Accumulated Fixed Capital Investment per worker. The takeoff zone

7 Education Rankings The conundrum It is a reality that countries with rapidly growing working age populations (and typically rapid growth in child and youth populations) are weak on education. All the Emerging Markets with a strong education profile are ones with a declining working age population. But nonetheless a significant number of those with a growing working age population are over or close to 200 on the education index. Education Index - higher is better Working Age CAGR Saudi Arabia % Kenya % Nigeria % United Arab Emirates % Pakistan % Egypt % Philippines % Malaysia % Turkey % Bangladesh % South Africa % Mexico % India % Peru % Indonesia % Argentina % Colombia % Viet Nam % Brazil % Chile % China % Thailand % Czechia % Republic of Korea % Hungary % Russian Federation % Poland % Greece % Bulgaria % 7

8 8 Propensity to be employed This is the probability of a person of working age being in employment. As a general rule it increases with Education and decreases with Affluence. But it is also subject to market forces. The supply of low skilled (poorly educated) persons of working age is substantial. This year approximately 27 million persons in the world will turn 15 years of age, potentially looking for work this year and who have not completed primary education. This means demand for low skill manual task work is high at a time that robotics is replacing it.

9 9 Propensity to be Employed An increasing propensity to be employed increases the potential growth of the labour force over what the rend in working age population alone indicates. Overall the Emerging Markets show a positive trend just two exceptions. Kenya and China. But note that India and Nigeria two very large populations are neutral. Also appreciate that, as shown earlier, countries such as Thailand where the working age population is now in decline, there is a natural pressure to increase overall propensity to be employed. Propensity to be employed CAGR Russian Federation 71% 73% 79% 0.9% Republic of Korea 69% 72% 78% 0.8% Colombia 65% 71% 77% 0.8% Poland 59% 67% 71% 0.6% Peru 83% 82% 87% 0.5% Chile 61% 68% 71% 0.5% Thailand 81% 79% 83% 0.5% Viet Nam 84% 85% 89% 0.5% Hungary 59% 69% 71% 0.4% Greece 65% 55% 57% 0.4% Brazil 68% 62% 65% 0.3% Saudi Arabia 50% 55% 57% 0.3% Pakistan 55% 56% 58% 0.3% Bulgaria 65% 67% 69% 0.3% Argentina 67% 64% 66% 0.3% Mexico 66% 65% 67% 0.3% Indonesia 67% 68% 70% 0.3% Malaysia 63% 68% 70% 0.2% United Arab Emirates 78% 80% 82% 0.2% Philippines 64% 65% 66% 0.2% Egypt 48% 46% 46% 0.1% Turkey 46% 51% 52% 0.1% Bangladesh 59% 58% 59% 0.1% South Africa 45% 43% 43% 0.1% India 61% 57% 57% 0.0% Czechia 69% 76% 76% 0.0% Nigeria 55% 54% 54% 0.0% China 77% 77% 77% -0.1% Kenya 61% 61% 60% -0.1%

10 10 Total Employed Labour Force This table reflects the combination of: 1. Number of persons of working age (15-64 yrs for these countries) 2. Their change in propensity to be employed 3. Which in turn is in part a function of education profile Again the issue here is yield and hence size of workforce is not the focus but rather how rapidly it is growing. So countries are sorted on that basis. Rapidly growing large labour forces CAGR in Working Age Population Propensity of working Age to be employed CAGR CAGR in Total Employe Saudi Arabia 3.1% 0.3% 3.4% Kenya 3.1% -0.1% 2.9% United Arab Emirates 2.8% 0.2% 2.9% Nigeria 2.8% 0.0% 2.8% Pakistan 2.1% 0.3% 2.4% Egypt 1.8% 0.1% 2.0% Malaysia 1.5% 0.2% 1.7% Philippines 1.5% 0.2% 1.7% Peru 1.1% 0.5% 1.7% Mexico 1.2% 0.3% 1.5% Turkey 1.3% 0.1% 1.5% Colombia 0.6% 0.8% 1.4% Bangladesh 1.3% 0.1% 1.4% South Africa 1.3% 0.1% 1.4% Indonesia 1.0% 0.3% 1.3% India 1.2% 0.0% 1.3% Argentina 1.0% 0.3% 1.2% Viet Nam 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% Chile 0.4% 0.5% 1.0% Brazil 0.5% 0.3% 0.8% Thailand -0.4% 0.5% 0.1% Republic of Korea -0.7% 0.8% 0.1% Russian Federation -0.9% 0.9% 0.0% China -0.2% -0.1% -0.3% Poland -0.9% 0.6% -0.3% Hungary -0.8% 0.4% -0.4% Czechia -0.4% 0.0% -0.4% Greece -1.0% 0.4% -0.6% Bulgaria -1.1% 0.3% -0.8%

11 Quantity Growth and Quality The previous slide identifies which counties have the most rapid growth in the size of their labour force. However, capability as enabled by education is an issue, and if we give education equal rating as growth in number employed then a very different picture emerges. CAGR in Working Age Population Propensity of working Age to be employed CAGR CAGR in Total Employe Education Index Saudi Arabia 3.1% 0% 3.4% 221 United Arab Emirates 2.8% 0% 2.9% 217 Malaysia 1.5% 0% 1.7% 223 Philippines 1.5% 0% 1.7% 224 South Africa 1.3% 0% 1.4% 236 Argentina 1.0% 0% 1.2% 241 Peru 1.1% 1% 1.7% 212 Russian Federation -0.9% 1% 0.0% 276 Czechia -0.4% 0% -0.4% 293 Hungary -0.8% 0% -0.4% 277 Republic of Korea -0.7% 1% 0.1% 262 Turkey 1.3% 0% 1.5% 207 Viet Nam 0.5% 0% 1.0% 227 Egypt 1.8% 0% 2.0% 167 Pakistan 2.1% 0% 2.4% 152 Poland -0.9% 1% -0.3% 274 Kenya 3.1% 0% 2.9% 121 Mexico 1.2% 0% 1.5% 179 Nigeria 2.8% 0% 2.8% 121 Chile 0.4% 1% 1.0% 219 Colombia 0.6% 1% 1.4% 175 Bulgaria -1.1% 0% -0.8% 272 Greece -1.0% 0% -0.6% 230 Indonesia 1.0% 0% 1.3% 168 Brazil 0.5% 0% 0.8% 183 Bangladesh 1.3% 0% 1.4% 131 India 1.2% 0% 1.3% 144 China -0.2% 0% -0.3% 189 Thailand -0.4% 1% 0.1% 149 Countries listed by average rank on total employed and education index 11

12 Workforce Empowerment Accumulated FCI 12 First a definition. Fixed Capital Investment (FCI) can be a lumpy variable especially in small economies. As such it is not a good indicator of year on year performance. Accumulated FCI is run over a 10 year period with 10% depreciation applied. So it is 10% of the earliest year + 20% of second oldest year, etc. It indicates the amount of resources available to enable the worker to be more productive. Ideally it should be growing and typically does if education index is above 150 and growing and overall economy is growing.

13 13 The Drivers This chart shows the relationship across all 107 countries between Average Fixed Capital Investment per worker and GDP per worker The relationship is positive as is to be expected and has a reasonable R2. This chart shows the weak but directional lagged relationship between Education and accumulated Fixed Capital Investment. Basically investment is very low as long as education index is bellow 150. It then tends to accelerate. Differences in outcomes above 150 may well be a function of incentives etc.

14 14 Accumulated Fixed Capital Investment per Worker This is a multi dimensional variable both absolute level (higher the better) and projected rate of increase are both important in determining Gross Productivity per worker As shown the two variables do not correlate well but order reflects the average rank on the two variables absolute level in 2017 and projected growth to Please note while historical absolute data is reliable, forecasts are highly subjective and alternative scenarios could be advanced. Accumulated Fixed Capital Investment per workecagr Turkey 29,789 41,198 67, % 5.0% Saudi Arabia 59,550 66,062 94, % 3.6% Republic of Korea 68,715 86, , % 3.1% China 13,036 30,860 49, % 4.8% Czechia 49,858 53,078 72, % 3.2% United Arab Emirates 59,997 63,866 81, % 2.5% Hungary 37,019 32,934 44, % 3.1% Philippines 5,228 7,409 13, % 5.8% Bangladesh 2,984 5,100 9, % 6.0% India 4,135 7,132 11, % 5.1% Indonesia 6,375 12,782 19, % 4.5% Malaysia 19,391 25,014 33, % 2.8% Thailand 10,268 14,215 20, % 3.5% Poland 22,850 28,717 34, % 2.0% Russian Federation 16,363 25,415 31, % 2.0% Bulgaria 15,153 19,413 26, % 3.0% Chile 30,419 39,610 41, % 0.5% Nigeria 1,798 4,667 6, % 3.6% Viet Nam 3,837 4,537 6, % 3.8% Greece 63,446 37,260 33, % -1.0% Argentina 25,411 29,272 29, % 0.1% Mexico 22,318 23,514 26, % 1.1% Colombia 10,612 15,743 17, % 1.3% Peru 7,583 13,882 16, % 1.9% South Africa 17,480 22,733 24, % 0.9% Brazil 17,677 23,225 19, % -2.0% Pakistan 3,276 3,010 3, % 2.4% Egypt 5,071 5,143 5, % 1.2% Kenya 3,252 4,129 4, % 1.7% Countries listed by average rank on total Accum FCI pw and also Growth rate of it

15 Productivity per worker as driven by Accumulated Fixed Capital Investment per worker and Education As indicated on an earlier slide, there is a strong and positive, relationship between education and resources available to the worker and their productivity, Education AFCIpw GDP per Index Worker Republic of Korea ,698 57,419 United Arab Emirates ,866 56,920 Saudi Arabia ,062 51,410 Greece ,260 49,431 Czechia ,078 40,917 Argentina ,272 34,987 Chile ,610 33,058 Hungary ,934 31,082 Turkey ,198 30,722 Poland ,717 29,914 Brazil ,225 22,585 Russian Federation ,415 21,976 South Africa ,733 21,808 Malaysia ,014 20,831 Mexico ,514 20,779 Bulgaria ,413 18,405 China ,860 15,553 Colombia ,743 12,819 Peru ,882 12,222 Thailand ,215 11,752 Indonesia ,782 8,328 Nigeria 121 4,667 7,218 Philippines 224 7,409 7,213 Egypt 167 5,143 7,091 India 144 7,132 5,211 Pakistan 152 3,010 4,510 Kenya 121 4,129 4,366 Viet Nam 227 4,537 3,969 Bangladesh 131 5,100 3,851 15

16 16 Scoring of Potential Working Age Population Employed Persons Education Profile Propensity to be employed Total GDP and GDP Growth Productivity per Worker Accumulated Fixed Capital Investment per worker Proportion paid in wages Individual Affluence

17 17 Historical Test to Forecast 2017 China rates higher if focus on urban labour force situation Loss of labour force and no upside in education or Accum FCI per worker as both already high CAGR CAGR CAGR Actual Real GDP Working Age Pop Educ Index Avg FCI pw Growth Philippines 1.5% 1.3% 5.8% 5.9% Saudi Arabia 3.1% 1.3% 3.6% 9.2% Nigeria 2.8% 1.2% 3.6% 6.7% Pakistan 2.1% 4.6% 2.4% 4.2% India 1.2% 1.2% 5.1% 6.4% Turkey 1.3% 1.1% 5.0% 4.5% Bangladesh 1.3% 0.9% 6.0% 6.0% Kenya 3.1% 1.2% 1.7% 4.4% United Arab Emirates 2.8% 0.9% 2.5% 6.2% South Africa 1.3% 1.7% 0.9% 2.9% Thailand -0.4% 1.3% 3.5% 3.9% China -0.2% 1.1% 4.8% 4.2% Indonesia 1.0% 0.8% 4.5% 4.3% Malaysia 1.5% 0.4% 2.8% 4.2% Egypt 1.8% 1.0% 1.2% 3.7% Peru 1.1% 1.1% 1.9% 4.8% Colombia 0.6% 1.2% 1.3% 1.8% Mexico 1.2% 1.0% 1.1% 2.2% Brazil 0.5% 1.4% -2.0% 1.0% Viet Nam 0.5% -1.7% 3.8% 5.6% Czechia -0.4% 0.1% 3.2% 3.6% Hungary -0.8% 0.2% 3.1% 2.6% Republic of Korea -0.7% 0.2% 3.1% 2.7% Argentina 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2.5% Bulgaria -1.1% 0.2% 3.0% 2.3% Chile 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 2.1% Russian Federation -0.9% -0.2% 2.0% 1.7% Poland -0.9% -0.4% 2.0% 2.2% Greece -1.0% 0.7% -1.0% 0.8% Countries ranked according to average rank on first 3 columns Average CAGR top 10 was 5.0% pa Average CAGR Next 10 was 4.0% pa Average CAGR for last 9 was 1.4%

18 CAGR CAGR CAGR Total GDP Projected GDP Growth Working Age Pop Educ Index Avg FCI pw Growth Philippines 1.5% 1.3% 5.8% 5.9% Rates Saudi Arabia 3.1% 1.3% 3.6% 9.2% Nigeria 2.8% 1.2% 3.6% 6.7% Pakistan 2.1% 4.6% 2.4% 4.2% India 1.2% 1.2% 5.1% 6.4% Turkey 1.3% 1.1% 5.0% 4.5% Bangladesh 1.3% 0.9% 6.0% 6.0% Kenya 3.1% 1.2% 1.7% 4.4% United Arab Emirates 2.8% 0.9% 2.5% 6.2% South Africa 1.3% 1.7% 0.9% 2.9% Thailand -0.4% 1.3% 3.5% 3.9% China -0.2% 1.1% 4.8% 4.2% Indonesia 1.0% 0.8% 4.5% 4.3% Malaysia 1.5% 0.4% 2.8% 4.2% Egypt 1.8% 1.0% 1.2% 3.7% Peru 1.1% 1.1% 1.9% 4.8% Colombia 0.6% 1.2% 1.3% 1.8% Mexico 1.2% 1.0% 1.1% 2.2% Brazil 0.5% 1.4% -2.0% 1.0% Viet Nam 0.5% -1.7% 3.8% 5.6% Czechia -0.4% 0.1% 3.2% 3.6% Hungary -0.8% 0.2% 3.1% 2.6% Republic of Korea -0.7% 0.2% 3.1% 2.7% Argentina 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2.5% Bulgaria -1.1% 0.2% 3.0% 2.3% Chile 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 2.1% Russian Federation -0.9% -0.2% 2.0% 1.7% Poland -0.9% -0.4% 2.0% 2.2% Greece -1.0% 0.7% -1.0% 0.8% Countries ranked according to average rank on first 3 columns 18 Top 10 Projected to grow at an average of 5.7% pa Next 10 Projected to grow at an average of 3.5% pa Last 9 Projected to grow at an average of 2.3% pa

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