MONTHLY MARKET INSIGHTS AUGUST EDITION 2017

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Aleesha Boyd
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1 AUGUST EDITION 2017

2 USD The U.S. dollar index tumbled to its lowest level in 13-months in July and is down nearly 10% since the start of The dollar s trade-weighted average is down over two and a half-percent in the month of July alone. Given the fact that investors are currently divided on the outlook for another dollar-supportive interest rate hike in the second half of 2017, commentary from Fed policymakers at this year s Jackson Hole symposium will be of particular importance to the dollar s performance. Fed Chair Janet Yellen, speaking before Congressional lawmakers this month, sounded a slightly more cautious tone by saying that lending rates may not have to rise that much more given the less-robust growth and inflation backdrop. Inflation figures will take center stage this month, with the Fed s favorite gauge of price pressures, the core PCE index, as well as CPI for July likely to be pivotal for the dollar. No signs of mounting inflation will likely keep the dollar vulnerable to continued selling pressure. USD INDEX JULY Generally disappointing economic data, which was highlighted by June s cooler than expected inflation report and second-straight month of declining retail sales did little to bolster expectations for another dollar-supportive Fed rate hike in the second half of the year. Political headlines weighed on the dollar this month, with the Senate s failed healthcare bill, the widening scope of the special counsel s investigation in into President Trump s business dealings along with the steady drip of Russia-related headlines adding to the greenback s soggy tone. Jobs figures will, as always, be very important for the dollar. But in addition to continued strong hiring, the dollar could benefit from a further decline in the nation s unemployment rate, currently hovering near its lowest level in 16 years. The steady flow of negative political headlines in the U.S. has undermined the dollar for much of this year. Further signs of policy paralysis, a widening investigation into the alleged Trump-Russia connection and general dysfunction in Washington would dent already low hopes for fiscal stimulus and likely hurt the dollar AUG 1 JUNE CORE PCE INDEX AUG 3 JULY ISM SERVICES AUG 4 JULY EMPLOYMENT REPORT AUG 11 JULY CPI AUG FED S ANNUAL JACKSON HOLE SYMPOSIUM

3 EUR The euro soared to a 23-month peak in late July, benefiting from a broadly weaker U.S. dollar and a slightly more hawkish tone from the ECB, both of which helped make EUR/USD the best performing G10 currency in 2017-, up over 10% year-to-date. The ECB meeting in mid-july was widely interpreted as paving the way for an announcement on tapering the bank s massive stimulus program in the autumn. The seeming lack of concern surrounding the euro s strength or tightening financial conditions was seen as giving traders a green light to continue pushing the single currency higher. Positive sentiment data, dissipation of deflationary pressures and the overall broad-based nature of the recovery in the euro zone economy have bolstered expectations that the ECB is inching closer to reducing monetary stimulus, which could mark the end of the period of divergent monetary policies between the Fed and the ECB. While market momentum is clearly working in the euro s favor, some signs that price pressures across the euro zone may have peaked as well as the recent strength of the single currency could alleviate pressure off the ECB to signal any changes to policy in in the fall. Euro zone economic data his month will be headlined by GDP for the second quarter for both Germany and the broader 19-member bloc. The pace of the bloc s recovery will be crucial in setting market expectations for the timing of when the ECB will begin to taper its monthly asset purchases. Euro zone CPI late in the month will also be very important in setting expectations for the timing of any reduction in monetary stimulus from the ECB. Further signs that inflation in the euro zone continues to moderate will likely weigh on the outlook for ECB tapering and on the euro. Commentary from euro zone monetary policymakers will be closely watched for any clarification on when the bank expects to begin the process of scaling back its monthly asset purchases. German business and investors sentiment will be closely watched for further signs of strength in August. Euphoric sentiment among German firms has helped signal a bright outlook for the broader euro zone economy and has helped propel the euro to near a two-year peak EUR/USD JULY AUG 3 JUNE RETAIL SALES AUG 14 JUNE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AUG 15 GERMAN Q2 GDP (FLASH) AUG 16 Q2 GDP (FLASH) AUG 31 AUGUST CPI (FLASH)

JPY A rollercoaster performance for the Japanese yen in July saw the currency fall to its lowest level in four months against the greenback in early July amid a backdrop of rising U.S.

4 JPY A rollercoaster performance for the Japanese yen in July saw the currency fall to its lowest level in four months against the greenback in early July amid a backdrop of rising U.S. bond yields and steady, low Japanese yields. The yen rebounded to hit its highest level in five weeks in late July after the Fed Chair sounded a slightly more cautious tone in her testimony before Congressional lawmakers, following weak U.S. economic data and continued negative U.S. political headlines, all of which undermined the outlook for further Fed lending rate hikes in The dollar s current weakness notwithstanding, this month s renewed pledge by the Bank of Japan to keep domestic yields anchored at a time when many of the world s major central banks are signaling a shift to a less dovish monetary policy stance leaves the yen vulnerable. While the yen bounced firmly off of its four-month low earlier in the month, the broad flight to riskier assets at the expense of lower yielding and safer assets ultimately kept its gains versus the broadly heavier dollar relatively limited. Japanese economic data this month will likely take a backseat to broader moves in global financial markets. In particular, any sustained rise in U.S. Treasury bond yields is likely to keep the low yielding Japanese yen pressured. Conversely, further doubts about the outlook for a U.S. lending rate hike in the second half of this year, dovish comments from Fed officials at Jackson Hole and a generally depressed tone to Treasury yields would likely keep the yen biased higher against the greenback. A continued flight in to riskier assets like stocks, commodities, emerging market securities and higher yielding currencies at the expense of the lower yielding yen would likely keep the Japanese currency s upside, even against a broadly weaker U.S. dollar, limited. U.S. political discourse will continue to be a major driver of the dollar s direction, particularly against the yen. Continued signs of dysfunction and policy paralysis in Washington will likely keep any hopes of dollar-supportive fiscal stimulus at rock-bottom levels USD/JPY JULY AUG 7 JUNE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE AUG 9 JUNE MACHINERY ORDERS AUG 13 Q2 GDP AUG 16 JULY TRADE BALANCE AUG 24 AUGUST UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

GBP The British pound jumped to a new 10-month peak against the broadly heavier U.S. dollar this month, capitalizing on the greenback s broad decline against a basket of is major rivals.

5 GBP The British pound jumped to a new 10-month peak against the broadly heavier U.S. dollar this month, capitalizing on the greenback s broad decline against a basket of is major rivals. The pound continued to benefit from expectations, moderating though they may be, that the Bank of England could be the next major central bank to follow the Fed and the Bank of Canada down the path of lending rate increases. Sterling was briefly sent lower by U.K. CPI, that moderated from a rate of 2.9%(y/y) in May to 2.6%(y/y) in July, well under the forecast for no change. The surprising drop in consumer inflation, especially if sustained, could dent a key argument for the BOE to raise U.K. rates sooner rather than later. Second quarter U.K. GDP reported at 0.3%(q/q) was a bit of a relief to investors, who given the tenor of recent economic reports, feared an even worse performance. The combination of an asexpected GDP report and a broadly weaker U.S. dollar kept the pound near recent highs into the end of July. The Bank of England s monetary policy meeting early in the month will help set the pound s tone for much of the month ahead. While no change in lending rates is expected, the bank will help set expectations for rates over the coming months- signaling (or not) that it is indeed moving closer to lift U.K. borrowing costs off of record lows. Also on the third of August, dubbed super Thursday, investors will look to the Bank of England s Quarterly Inflation Report for direction. The bank s QIR will be scoured for clues on the outlook for rates and the extent to which policymakers are willing to look past elevated inflation and instead focus on an otherwise lackluster U.K. economic backdrop. CPI, which surprisingly moderated in June, will be closely watched for further signs that price pressures in the U.K. are moderating. Another drop in CPI would further reduce pressure off of the BOE to raise rates in the months ahead and likely send the pound lower. July s U.K. employment report will be analyzed for further signs that wage growth is lagging overall increases in inflation. Another month of lackluster wage inflation would further dent households purchasing power and likely hurt the pound GBP/USD JULY AUG 3 BANK OF ENGLAND MONETARY POLICY MEETING BOE QUARTERLY INFLATION REPORT AUG 15 JULY CPI AUG 16 JULY CLAIMANT COUNT UNEMPLOYMENT AUG 17 JULY RETAIL SALES

6 CAD The Canadian dollar soared to its highest level in 25 months against the broadly heavier U.S. dollar in late July. The loonie benefited from the Bank of Canada s first lending rate hike in seven years this month and from the view that the BOC could have more increases in the pipeline in the months ahead. This month s Canadian economic data will be viewed through the lens of a market that is increasingly pricing in a follow-up BOC rate increase at either the bank s September or October meetings. Consequently, only surprisingly weak economic data will likely be able to meaningfully dull the loonie s newfound luster. The BOC telegraphed this month s interest rate hike at June s annual ECB conference in Portugal, signaling that it s rate cuts last year had done their job in helping underpin growth. The surprisingly hawkish language in June and the rate hike this month added to the loonie s broadly improved tone against the greenback since early May. Canadian GDP for the month of May increased by 0.6%(m/m), three time the consensus forecast. The data came in late July and added to the loonie s resurgent tone as it signaled a solid economic performance in Q2 and likely more BOC hikes to come in the months ahead. Crude oil ended the month of July just under $50/barrel and near the upper end of its broader $40-50/barrel range. The steady rise in crude oil since mid-june has added to the Canadian dollar s solid tone against the greenback. Employment data in Canada has been surprisingly strong of late. Another month of solid hiring would likely bolster the case for another CAD-supportive lending rate hike in the months ahead. Consumer inflation in Canada has been stubbornly low and remains one of the few arguments against higher borrowing costs from the Bank of Canada. Another month of below-consensus CPI and core inflation well under the BOC s target could suggest a more wait-and-see approach to rate hikes from the nation s central bank- a scenario that could hurt the loonie. Crude oil and developments south of Canada s border will continue to drive a good bit of the CAD s direction. A pullback in crude oil prices toward the lower end of the recent range or any broad recovery in the greenback could prompt some profit taking in the CAD USD/CAD JULY AUG 4 JULY EMPLOYMENT REPORT JUNE TRADE BALANCE AUG 18 JULY CPI AUG 21 JUNE WHOLESALE TRADE AUG 22 JUNE RETAIL SALES

AUD NZD & The Australian dollar soared to its best level in two years and put in its best monthly showing in July against the U.S. currency since January.

7 AUD NZD & The Australian dollar soared to its best level in two years and put in its best monthly showing in July against the U.S. currency since January. The Aussie s high yield remained a draw for global investors that increasingly see the pace of the Fed s policy normalization as likely to be extremely gradual. This month s headline event in Australia will be the RBA s Policy Board meeting in early August. Investors expect no changes from the RBA, especially following some dovish commentary from top central bankers over recent weeks. Any overt focus by the RBA on the strength of the Aussie and its potential to harm the economy could send the unit sharply lower AUD/USD JULY The New Zealand dollar put in its third-straight month of gains against the U.S. dollar, also hitting its best level against the greenback in two years amid the broad flight to higher yielding and higher risk assets across global financial markets. The Aussie s stellar performance in July came despite a cooler than expected CPI print for the second quarter and comments from top RBA official suggesting the bank is in no rush to follow other central banks down the path of lending rate increases. The kiwi also shrugged off a cooler than expected Q2 CPI report in July. The data all but eliminated the risk of a near-term RBNZ interest rate increase but was not enough to overshadow the unit s elevated yield appeal. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand also meets this month and is widely expected to keep lending rates unchanged at 1.75%. The cooler than expected Q2 CPI report all but squashed near-term rate hike expectations in New Zealand. Australia s employment data will also be closely watched this month. Strength in hiring has helped underpin the Aussie of late, but even strong data may not be enough to revive expectations for a near-term hike by the RBA. As always, the dollar-bloc and commodity currencies will be driven by broader moves in global financial markets. Relative stability or calm in markets should keep investors in search of yields in higher risk assets and keep this group well supported. Conversely, heightened market volatility could result in a flight to safety out of the AUD and NZD and into safer USD and JPY assets NZD/USD JULY 0.72 AUG 1 RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA POLICY BOARD MEETING AUG 3 AU JUNE RETAIL SALES AUG 9 RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND POLICY BOARD MEETING AUG 16 AU JULY EMPLOYMENT REPORT AUG 23 NZ JULY TRADE BALANCE

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Risk Insight. The Central Bank Tightening Party: Who Will Be Next To Join? What are the chances... Volume 8, Issue th July 2017.

Risk Insight. The Central Bank Tightening Party: Who Will Be Next To Join? What are the chances... Volume 8, Issue th July 2017. Inside this issue Big Picture... 1-2 GBPUSD... 3 GBPEUR... 4 Risk Insight Volume 8, Issue 31 24 th July 2017 EURUSD... 5 USDCAD... 6 Economic Data and Market Indicators... 7 Appendix... 8 The Central Bank