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1 6Months DAILY REPORT Market Comment The eyes in the bank sector 28/5/13 Indices Closing 27/5/13 Chng.% YTD ASE General 1,38.89, % FTSE Large CAP , % FTSE Mid Cap 1, % ATHEX / ALL SHARE INDEX % BANKS , % TELECOMS 1, , % CONSTRUCTION & MATERIALS 1,99.42,5 4.% TRAVEL - LEISURE 1, , % ATHEX STATISTICS (27/5/13) A.G.High/Low 1, ,34.94 Ups/Down/Stable New Turnover 88,749,24 High/Low / Avg. Turnover (ytd.) 72,213,496 Pieces 118,789,579 Market Cap. 62,267,22,96 Market Cap./GDP 32.77% Block Trades 78,314 ASE GEN. IND P/E RATIO (EATAM) P/BV D.Y. FTSE 25 P/E RATIO (EATAM) P/BV D.Y. ATHEX VALUATION FUTURES FTSE Large CAP Set/ment Chng.% Volume ,161 FTSE MID CAP Set/ment Chng.% Volume Indices INTERNATIONAL INDICES Closing* 27/5/13 Chng.% YTD DOW JONES 15,15.12 Close 28/ % S&P 5 1, Close 28/ % NASDAQ 3, Close 28/5 11.9% DAX 8,249.71, % FTSE 1 6,583.48, % CAC 4 3,956.28, % Italy 17, % Spain 8, % NIKKEI , % Hang Seng Index 23, % FX EURIBOR EUR/USD M,112 EUR/GBP, M,23 USD/JPY M,33 EUR/JPY M,491 *Except Asian Markets: Last Update 7:3 - Local Time (GMT+2) BRENT 14,4 GOLD 1568,81 PALLADIUM (euro) SILVER 687,24 PLATINUM (euro) IRIDIUM In the bank sector will be the eyes, one day after the finishing of the right of Alpha Bank, and ahead of the final announcements of Piraeus Bank and the start of trading of NBG shares (and rights) on Thursday. Making a short comment for the banks, after the announcement of the financial results for the first quarter, we see some positive signs in the financial results of Alpha bank and those of Pireaus Bank (for first time after 3-4 years), while we believe that in the first case (Alpha Bank), with the start of Warrants and the new shares it should not be ruled to appear some investments opportunities. More difficult is appearing to be the situation in the case of NBG, were there is negative shareholder s equity 1,9bln euros approximately. Given this fact, it is appearing as a very possible outcome, even in the case that the share capital increase of NBG will succeed, the bank to need a new share capital increase in the next months. Important Corporate & Macroeconomics News and Comments HELEX Q1 213 financial results - 4.m net after tax profits The consolidated net after tax profits of HELEX in Q1 213 amounted to 4m vs. 4.8m in Q1 212, reduced by 16.5%. The net after tax profits per share including bond valuation differences amounted to.6 vs..9 in the corresponding period last year. The total operating revenue of the Group increased by 1.7% to 8.85m in Q1 213 vs. 8.7m in Q On the other hand, total consolidated revenue dropped by 17.3% ( 8.6m vs. 1.4m). It should be noted that in Q1 212 the company booked 2m in non-recurring revenue. The average capitalization of the Greek capital market increased by 24% in Q1 213 compared to Q1 212 ( 36.4bn vs. 29.4bn), while the average daily traded value was 65.3m, compared to 61.5m, a 6% increase. On the other hand, market liquidity dropped by 21.4%, with the average daily volume at 4m shares in Q1 213 vs. 5.8m shares in Q In the derivatives market, the average daily number of contracts increased by 18% (62.7 thousand vs thousand). The operating expenses of the Group were reduced by 13.6% in Q1 213, amounting to 3.9m vs. 4.5m in Q1 212, whereas total operating expenses including new activities, was reduced by 11.9% in Q1 213, to 4.1m vs. 4.7m in the corresponding period last year. The Group s EBT in Q1 213 amounted to 5.3m vs. 6.7m in the corresponding period last year, reduced by 19.8%. Based on data up to and including , the average daily traded value in Q1 213 amounted to 94.1m. Greece modifies DEPA privatisation terms to accommodate Gazprom Greece agreed to change some terms in the planned privatisation of natural gas distributor DEPA, opening the way for Russian energy giant Gazprom to bid for the firm, a senior official directly involved in the sale talks said on Saturday. Privatisation agency HRADF finalised the terms of the sale contract late on Friday, lowering the amount that DEPA s buyer will have to deposit as a guarantee before the deal gets regulatory approval. Continue.. I
2 DAILY REPORT "The guarantee was halved to 1 percent of the purchase price," the Greek official told Reuters on condition of anonymity. HRADF also said it would compensate the buyer if DEPA fails to collect overdue bills owed by recessionstruck Greek clients. "We are guaranteeing up to 18 million euros of arrears if they are not settled by December 31, 215," the official said. Gazprom has been lobbying hard to wring these concessions from Athens, leveraging its position as the only major energy company interested in buying DEPA. Cash-strapped Greece needs the DEPA sale to go through to hit the privatisation revenue targets set in its EU/IMF bailout. Gazprom last year made a preliminary bid of 9 million euros for DEPA, whose 212 net profit stood at 16 million euros. But the Russian firm s role as DEPA s main supplier has raised concerns that the EU, already trying to loosen Gazprom s grip on Europe s energy market, might block or impose stringent conditions on the deal. Under the final terms of the DEPA sale, Gazprom will not lose any of its deposit if the EU blocks the DEPA acquisition, the official said on Saturday. HRADF also pushed back by about ten days a May 29 deadline for the submission of final bids to give DEPA s suitors more time to study the final sale terms, the official said. Gazprom s only rival for DEPA is M&M Gas, a joint venture by Greek energy firms Motor Oil (MORr.AT) and Mytilineos (MYTr.AT). But M&M s initial bid of about 55 million euros was far below Gazprom s and its parent firms owe money to DEPA and compete with it in the wholesale gas market. Sintez, a small Russian energy firm controlled by Russian tycoon Leonid Lebedev, is expected to submit a binding bid just for grid operator DESFA, which is part of DEPA but can be sold separately. Sintez s major rival for DESFA, a regulated business with a steady profit margin, is Azerbaijan s state gas firm SOCAR. Greek-Czech consortium PPF/Terna may also submit a final bid for DESFA. Deputy Development minister holds meeting with China s deputy FinMin: China's interest in investments in Greece was reconfirmed during a meeting held on Monday between Deputy Development Minister Notis Mitarakis and the Vice Finance Minister of the People's Republic of China Li Yong. According to reports, interest by Chinese investors remains strong and is focused primarily on infrastructure, railways, ports and airports Apart from the fact that Greece continues to be part of Beijing's investment plans, discussion focused on the Greek position supporting a proposal for Li Yong to assume duties of Director General of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) It is the second time that a discussion takes place with Mitarakis on the specific issue. Li Yong oversees 18 investment funds in China. Low interest loans for Greek tourism sector as part of EU-funded package Businesses in Greece s tourism sector will be able to obtain loans of between 1, and 3, euros at a low interest rate under an EU-funded scheme announced on Monday. The businesses can apply for the loans at banks from May 31. The loans carry a fixed interest rate of 2.8 percent and are repayable over four years. The scheme is being provided as part of National Strategic Reference Framework (ESPA). Trades in Share Block(s) 27/5/213 Company Time Number Of Shares In Block Price of Share Block Value of Transactions COCA-COLA HBC AG 1:36:5 1, ,644.8 HELLENIC EXCHANGES S.A. 16:42: ,352. MLS MULTIMEDIA S.A. 17:7:59 11, ,5. II
3 DAILY REPORT Global Economic Calendar (28/5/13) Time Currency Forecast Previous 2:am CHF Trade Balance 2.2B 1.89B EUR German Import Prices m/m -.2% -.1% 3:15am CHF Employment Level 4.11M 4.12M 8:3am CAD Corporate Profits q/q 1.4% 9:am USD S&P/CS Composite-2 HPI y/y 1.2% 9.3% 1:am USD CB Consumer Confidence USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 2-6 1:pm GBP MPC Member Tucker Speaks 7:5pm JPY Retail Sales y/y -.4% -.3% 8:pm JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks 8:3pm AUD MI Leading Index m/m.6% Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m 4.2% 9:3pm AUD Construction Work Done q/q 1.1% -.1% *Local Times (GMT+2) * Local Time (Greece: GMT +2 III
4 TECHNICAL RESEARCH BRIEFING GENERAL INDEX - SHORT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Directnl Movement ADX (36.), Directnl Movement +DI (27.), Directnl Movement -DI (2.) MACD ( ) Relative Strength Index ( ) GD(e) (1,38.14, 1,54.9, 1,28.41, 1,35.12, ), Parabolic SAR (1,149.6) July August September October November December February March April May General Index (Weekly Data) - SHORT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Directnl Movement ADX (26.), Directnl Movement +DI (31.), Directnl Movement -DI (12.) 5 MACD ( ) Relative Strength Index ( ) 5 GD(e) (1,158.86, 1,159.97, 1,28.41, 1,35.12, ), Parabolic SAR ( ) Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 29 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 21 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 211 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 212 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 213 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 3 2 x1 1 IV
5 TECHNICAL RESEARCH BRIEFING FTSE 25 - SHORT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Directnl Movement ADX (35.), Directnl Movement +DI (28.), Directnl Movement -DI (24.) 5 MACD ( ) Relative Strength Index ( ) 5 FTSE(e) (352.6, , , 35.65, ), Parabolic SAR (45.373) July August September October November December February March April May FTSE 25 (weekly data) - SHORT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Directnl Movement ADX (22.), Directnl Movement +DI (32.), Directnl Movement -DI (13.) 5 MACD (13.317) Relative Strength Index (56.277) % 38.2% 23.6%.% FTSE(e) (48.3, 41.78, , 35.65, ), Parabolic SAR ( ) Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 29 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 21 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 211 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 212 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 213 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 5 x1 V
6 TECHNICAL RESEARCH BRIEFING BANK SECTOR - SHORT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Directnl Movement ADX (36.), Directnl Movement +DI (35.), Directnl Movement -DI (26.) Relative Strength Index (5.4572) MACD ( ) DTR(e) (212.29, , 211.1, , ), Parabolic SAR ( ) July August September October November December February March April May BANK SECTOR (weekly data) - SHORT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Directnl Movement ADX (32.), Directnl Movement +DI (31.), Directnl Movement -DI (14.) 5 MACD ( ) Relative Strength Index (5.9552) 5 DTR(e) (348.93, 366.1, 211.1, , ), Parabolic SAR (11.877) Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 29 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 21 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 211 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 212 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 213 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug VI
7 TECHNICAL RESEARCH BRIEFING INTERNATIONAL MARKETS S&P 5 - SHORT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Directnl Movement ADX (18.), Directnl Movement +DI (26.), Directnl Movement -DI (21.) MACD (8.9653) Relative Strength Index (6.5585) July August September October S&P-5 Index (1,582.7, 1,598.47, 1,582.7, 1,597.59, ), Parabolic SAR (1,547.63) November December February March April May S&P 5 (weekly data) - SHORT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Directnl Movement ADX (22.), Directnl Movement +DI (25.), Directnl Movement -DI (14.) MACD ( ) Relative Strength Index (69.492) %.% 23.6% 61.8% 38.2% 5.% 5.% 38.2% 61.8% 23.6%.% 1.% S&P-5 Index (1,582.24, 1,598.47, 1,581.72, 1,597.59, ), Parabolic SAR (1,536.52) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 29 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 21 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 211 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 212 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 213 Mar Apr May Jun Jul VII
8 DAILY REPORT Disclaimer Responsibility: KARAMANOF SECURITIES & INVESTMENT SERVICES S.A. is regulated by the Hellenic Capital Market Commission (Licence No 5/62/ ) and is a member of the Athens Exchange and the Athens Derivatives Exchange. Analyst Certification: Michael Karamanof, Certified Equity Analyst Analyst Independence The analysts identified in this report certify that: Ι. All the views in reference with company/ices and securities analysed in this report reflect their personal views II. Do not directly or indirectly relate to or will be related in the future, to any kind of compensation in exchange for specific recommendations or views stated herein or to any kind of investment banking services, however compensation may relate to the revenues of KARAMANOF SECURITIES & INVESTMENT SERVICES S.A. as a whole. KARAMANOF SECURITIES & INVESTMENT SERVICES S.A. as well as its employees may proceed in any kind of legal transactions on stocks either for themselves or for the account of third parties or provide their services to the issuers of the securities mentioned herein. As a result, investors should be aware that KARAMANOF SECURITIES & INVESTMENT SERVICES S.A. may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Securities are subjects to investment risks, including the possible loss of the initial amount invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price, or income of any security mentioned herein. Thus, KARAMANOF SECURITIES & INVESTMENT SERVICES S.A. does not assume responsibility for investment decision based on herein texts or evaluations. This report it is not to be reproduced or copied or reprinted or transmitted for any purpose without the written permission of KARAMANOF SECURITIES & INVESTMENT SERVICES S.A. Important Disclosures The content of this report, view, opinion, evaluation, hasn t been sent to the issuers of the security/ies mentioned in question. For the completion of this report or for the formation of better opinion for the security/ies mentioned herein the research analyst may have received the solicitation of the personnel of the issuer of the security, in the form of access to the internet of the issuer of the security, meetings in private with the management and executive personnel, presentations and press conferences or press releases in the national and international press. This report is for informative purposes only. Thus, under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, hold or a solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe to any security or related financial instruments nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, in part or in whole, any contract or commitment whatsoever. KARAMANOF SECURITIES & INVESTMENT SERVICES S.A. may have assumed an underwriting commitment in the security stated herein and may also perform or seek to perform underwriting services for or relating to that security. While, the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable we have not independently verified all the information presented in this document. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, expressed or otherwise implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this document, or otherwise arising in connection therewith. All the views and expressions of opinion herein are those of the analyst only as of the date of the analysis report or / daily / weekly report and are subject to change without previous notice and are provided in good faith and without legal responsibility. KARAMANOF SECURITIES & INVESTMENT SERVICES S.A. may update or keep current the information contained herein without previous notice in accordance with the press releases, news, market conditions and any other publicly transmitted information. KARAMANOF SECURITIES & INVESTMENT SERVICES S.A research is disseminated and available primarily electronically, and, in some cases, in printed form. KARAMANOF SECURITIES S.A. VIII
Research & Analysis Department
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