Section 1: Introduction

Transcription

1 Section 1: Introduction [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 NW Electric Power Cooperative is a generation and transmission (G&T) electric cooperative based in Cameron, Missouri. As a G&T, the cooperative does not have any residential or commercial customers, but provides electric power to distribution cooperatives. NW has seven member co-ops: Atchison-Holt Electric, based in Rock Port; Farmers Electric, based in Chillicothe; Grundy Electric, based in Trenton; North Central Missouri Electric, based in Milan; Platte-Clay Electric, based in Kearney; United Electric, based in Maryville and Savannah; and West Central Electric, based in Higginsville. Table 1.1 shows the member cooperatives and the approximate number of customers served.the board of directors for NW is made up of the manager and one board member from each of the seven member cooperatives. Table 1.1 NW Electric Power Member Distribution Cooperatives Cooperative Customers Atchison-Holt Electric 2,600 Farmers Electric 12,000 Grundy Electric 6,600 North Central Missouri Electric 4,800 Platte-Clay Electric 20,000 United Electric 10,000 West Central Electric 13,600 NW s primary service area is the region served by its member cooperatives involving 28 Missouri counties: Andrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll, Chariton, Clay, Clinton, Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry, Grundy, Harrison, Henry, Holt, Jackson, Johnson, Lafayette, Linn, Livingston, Mercer, Nodaway, Platte, Putnam, Randolph, Ray, Sullivan and Worth.In these counties, NW has transmission lines, substations and other facilities. In addition, NW has a 161 kv line that runs from Bull Shoals, Arkansas, northward, through eight Missouri counties: Cedar, Christian, Dade, Greene, Polk, St. Claire, Stone and Taney. NW owns the line and contracts with other G&T cooperatives for most maintenance. This plan will include all assets, but focus on the primary service area in the 28 counties in northwest Missouri. NW also has assets in Iowa and Arkansas, but this plan will focus only on Missouri operations. Figure 1 depicts the geographic boundary of the cooperative in relation to USGS local quadrangles within the state of 31-1

2 May 18, 2012 [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] Missouri. (Map sources: Association of Missouri Electric Cooperatives, NW Electric Power Cooperative.) NW transmits power to approximately 118 substations, switching stations, and other key facilities located throughout its primary service territory. NW owns the substations while distribution co-ops own the lines which carry the power from the substations to customers. While substations vary greatly in size and cost, for planning purposes, the facilities are grouped into one category. Table 1.2 provides a summary of substations by Missouri county. NW s offices are located at Cameron, Mo. All personnel are based out of the Cameron office. The co-op has a 24-hour dispatch center and the system is monitored around the clock to identify any potential problems. NW has three types of transmission line with 1,213 miles of 69 kv line; 450 miles of 161 kv line; and 102 miles of 345 kv line. Population density for the cooperative service area is depicted in Figure 2. (Map Source: U.S. Census 2010.) Table 1.2 NW Electric Substations and Facilities by County County Substations Andrew 4 Atchison 4 Buchanan 2 Caldwell 4 Carroll 2 Cedar 0 Chariton 1 Christian 0 Clay 12 Clinton 6 Dade 0 Daviess 4 DeKalb 8 Gentry 3 Greene 0 Grundy 4 Harrison 5 Henry 0 Holt 3 Jackson 1 Johnson 7 Lafayette 8 Linn 4 Livingston 5 Mercer 4 Nodaway 6 Platte 5 Polk 0 Putnam 3 Randolph 0 Ray 2 St. Claire 0 Stone 0 Sullivan 9 Taney 0 Worth 2 Total 118 Source: NW Internal Records 31-2

3 Section 2: Planning process [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 Through a partnership with the Association of Missouri Electric Cooperatives and Missouri Association of Councils of Government, Mo-Kan Regional Council was contracted to facilitate a hazard mitigation planning process with NW Electric. The initial meeting between the two entities was held on January 26, 2011, at the cooperative s Cameron office as part of a regional kick-off meeting for the statewide plan. This informational meeting provided the basic responsibilities for each agency and allowed for initial discussion concerning the project timelines, data collection and other pertinent topics. Two additional planning meetings were held at NW s offices in Cameron. Table 1.3 summarizes the attendees and topics of each meeting. In addition, information was regularly shared through telephone calls and . Meeting minutes are included in the chapter appendix. Table 1.3NW Planning Meeting Synopsis Date Attendees, Title Organization Topics of Discussion Feb. 10, 2011 John Kaiser, NW Staff Engineer Dave McDowell, NW Director of Operations Tom Bliss, Mo-Kan Director Susan Mires, Mo-Kan Planner Matt Schoenfelder, Mo-Kan GIS Specialist NW business structure Service territory Critical facilities Asset inventory Data collection assignments Aug. 17, 2011 Oct. 13, 2011 Public Involvement John Kaiser, NW Staff Engineer John Stickley, NW Director of Engineering Susan Mires, Mo-Kan Planner Matt Schoenfelder, Mo-Kan GIS Specialist Dave McDowell, NW Director of Operations John Kaiser, NW Engineer John Stickley, NW Director of Engineering Susan Mires, Mo-Kan Planner Asset inventory, changes in data collection Ongoing mitigation activities Potential mitigation activities Prioritization of goals, actions and mitigation activities As with all public hazard mitigation plans, public involvement in NW s plan was encouraged through a variety of methods. Print copies of the local chapter were made available upon request at the Cameron office. Comments from neighboring jurisdictions were solicited using an adapted form of the standardized AMEC letter which was mailed to the appropriate contacts, including: Andrew County Commission Atchison County Commission Buchanan County Commission Caldwell County Commission Carroll County Commission Cedar County Commission Chariton County Commission Christian County Commission 31-3

4 May 18, 2012 [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] Clay County Commission Clinton County Commission Dade County Commission Daviess County Commission DeKalb County Commission Gentry County Commission Greene County Commission Grundy County Commission Harrison County Commission Henry County Commission Holt County Commission Jackson County Commission Johnson County Commission Lafayette County Commission Linn County Commission Livingston County Commission Mercer County Commission Nodaway County Commission Platte County Commission Polk County Commission Putnam County Commission Randolph County Commission Ray County Commission St. Claire County Commission Stone County Commission Sullivan County Commission Taney County Commission Worth County Commission Midland Empire Red Cross Chapter As a G&T cooperative, NW provides power to its seven member distribution cooperatives, but does not provide power directly to any critical facilities. The critical facilities served in its territory will be included in the chapter with each distribution cooperative. Additionally, NW s mitigation plan was included in the public comment period for the combined AMEC plan. 31-4

5 Section 3: Asset inventory [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 NW Electric has a wide variety of assets by type. At the headquarters in Cameron, the co-op has an office building, warehouse and numerous vehicles. The cooperative has about 118 substations throughout 28 counties and more than 1,765 miles of line owned and maintained. Table 1.4 provides information concerning total asset valuation. These figures are based on estimated emergency replacement costs, which can vary widely depending on several factors. For most facilities, average costs are used, while actual costs for particular facilities, such as substations, will vary. All NW assets are above ground; there are no underground assets. Table 1.4 NW Electric Asset Inventory Asset Total Replacement Cost Cost Breakdown Estimated Replacement Buildings and vehicles - $15,000,000 Costs $1,621,356,000 Overhead assets - $1,606,356,000 Transmission Lines $994,040,000 Supporting Infrastructure $274,816,000 Substations $337,500,000 Office Building and $10,500,000 Warehouses Vehicles $4,500, kv $464,440, kv $270,000, kv $81,600,000 Fiber - $178,000,000 Transformers - $144,300,000 Meters - $1,320,000 Poles - $76,459,500 Guys/Anchors - $2,039,700 Cross- Arms - $50,696,800 Ensuring quality distribution to its customers, NW maintains not only transmission lines, but also the supporting infrastructure. Table 1.5 lists assets by type, emergency replacement cost per unit or mile, the asset inventory by service county and total infrastructure numbers. 31-5

6 May 18, 2012 [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] Table 1.5 NW Electric Asset Inventory by Service County Asset Emergency Andrew Atchison Buchanan Caldwell Carroll Cedar Chariton Christian Replacement Cost Per Unit or Mile Meters $5,000/unit Poles (1.5 $2,250/unit 1,190 1, , poles every 400 feet) 69 kv $400,000/mile Transmission Line 161 kv $600,000/mile Transmission Line 345 kv $800,000/mile Transmission Line Transformers $975,000unit (all sizes) Guys/Anchors $1,300/unit Cross Arms (2 $1,400 1,269 1, , per 500 feet) Fiber $400,000/mile Substations $2,500, Total Replacement Value by County $48,003,000 $75,674,100 $17,010,050 $27,699,550 $16,915,400 $13,505,200 $45,136,550 $12,852,

7 [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 Table 1.5 NW Electric Asset Inventory by Service County Asset Emergency Clay Clinton Dade Daviess DeKalb Gentry Greene Grundy Replacement Cost Per Unit or Mile Meters $5,000/unit Poles (1.5 poles $2,250/unit every 400 feet) 1,819 1, ,638 2,597 1, , kv Transmission $400,000/mile Line kv $600,000/mile Transmission Line kv $800,000/mile Transmission Line Transformers $975,000 (all sizes) Guys/Anchors $1,300/unit Cross Arms (2 per $1, feet) 1,940 1, ,747 2,770 1, ,484 Fiber $400,000/mile Substations $2,500, Total Replacement Value by County $90,074,050 $77,828,850 $4,052,050 $70,666,200 $133,720,750 $61,105,400 $19,544,300 $69,112,

8 May 18, 2012 [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] Table 1.5 NW Electric Asset Inventory by Service County Asset Emergency Replacement Cost Per Unit or Mile Harrison Henry Holt Jackson Johnson Lafayette Linn Livingston Meters $5,000/unit Poles (1.5 poles $2,250/unit every 400 feet) 1, ,740 1,038 1,085 1, kv $400,000/mile Transmission Line kv $600,000/mile Transmission Line kv $800,000/mile Transmission Line Transformers $975,000 (all sizes) Guys/Anchors $1,300/unit Cross Arms (2 $1,400 per 500 feet) 1, ,856 1,107 1,158 1,240 Fiber $400,000/mile Substations $2,500, Total Replacement Value by County $39,645,900 $19,370,800 $33,078,150 $27,433,800 $93,678,500 $69,540,100 $60,859,850 $55,158,

9 [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 Table 1.5 NW Electric Asset Inventory by Service County Asset Emergency Replacement Cost Per Unit or Mile Mercer Nodaway Platte Polk Putnam Randolph Ray St Clair Meters $5,000/unit Poles (1.5 poles $2,250/unit every 400 feet) 1,052 2, kv $400,000/mi Transmission Line kv $600,000/mi Transmission Line kv $800,000/mi Transmission Line Transformers $975,000 (all sizes) Guys/Anchors $1,300/unit Cross Arms (2 $1,400 per 500 feet) 1,122 2, Fiber $400,000/mi Substations $2,500, Total Replacement Value by County $40,113,900 $123,009,750 $39,253,450 $3,360,450 $32,088,950 $11,026,750 $29,293,650 $17,542,

10 May 18, 2012 [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] Table 1.5 NW Electric Asset Inventory by Service County Asset Emergency Stone Sullivan Taney Worth TOTAL Replacement Cost Per Unit or Mile Meters $5,000/unit Poles (1.5 $2,250/unit poles every 244 1, , feet) 69 kv $400,000/mi Transmission ,213 miles Line 161 kv $600,000/mi Transmission miles Line 345 kv $800,000/mi Transmission Line miles Transformers $975,000 (all sizes) Guys/Anchors $1,300/unit ,554 Cross Arms (2 $1,400 per 500 feet) 260 1, ,287 Fiber $400,000/mi miles Substations $2,500, Total Replacement Value by County $8,127,300 $94,325,650 $9,561,750 $16,985,450 $1,606,356,

11 [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 Section 4: Identified Hazards and Risk Assessment Methodology Natural hazards in Missouri vary widely in regard to intensity, frequency and the scope of impact. Some hazards, such as earthquakes, arrive with little to no warning and do not provide any opportunity to prepare for the threat. Others hazards, such as flooding or severe winter weather, provide a period of warning which allows for public preparation prior to their occurrence. Regardless of onset time, hazard mitigation planning can lessen the negative impact. The following natural hazards have been identified as potential threats for the service region of NW Electric: Tornadoes Severe Thunderstorms, Hail and High Winds Floods and Levee Failure Severe Winter Weather Earthquakes Dam Failures Wildfires Land Subsidence Likewise, a number of hazards may be eliminated from consideration in the local plan due to Missouri s geographic location including tsunamis, hurricanes, coastal storms, volancic activity, avalanche and tropical storms. Additionally, a number of hazards may be eliminated specifically for NW because of asset types and geographic location in the state of Missouri. The following hazards have been eliminated for NW Electric s plan: Drought Heat Wave Landslide Although drought can impact Missouri, water availability does not directly impact delivering electricity for NW. Similarly, heat wave has also been eliminated from consideration because although heat can increase electric usage and potentially tax the system, it does not usually cause infrastructure damage to cooperative assets. The effect of heat wave on equipment should be considered a cascading event rather than damage caused by the hazard itself. For the purpose of this risk assessment, the identified hazards for NW Electric s service area have been divided into two categories: historical and non-historical hazards. Historical hazards are those hazards with a measurable previous impact upon the service area. Damage costs per event and a chronology of occurrences are available in most cases. The associated vulnerability assessments utilize the number of events and cost of each event to establish an average cost per incident

12 May 18, 2012 [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] For NW Electric, hazards with historical data are tornado, thunderstorm/high wind/hail, flood and levee failure, severe winter weather, and wildfire. Non-historical hazards are hazards with no previous record of impact upon the local service area. The associated vulnerability assessments for each of these hazards will have an occurrence probability of less than 1% in any, but the extent of damage will vary considerably. For NW Electric, hazards without historical data are earthquakes, dam failure and land subsidence. Probability of Occurrence In determining the potential frequency of occurrences, a basic formula was used. For historical hazards, the number of recorded events for the service area was divided by the number of years of record. This number was then multiplied by 100 to provide a percentage. This formula was used to determine future probability for each hazard. For non-historical hazards, a probability of less than 1% was automatically assigned because the hazard cannot be excluded from the possibility of occurrence. Likewise, when discussing the probable risk of each hazard based upon historical occurrences, the following scale was utilized: Less than 1% chance of an event occurring in any. 1-10% chance of an event occurring in any % chance of an event occurring in any. Near 100% chance of an event occurring in any. The number of occurrences was further refined to focus on damage-causing events. Those occasions which had reported damages were divided by the total number of recorded events to obtain a percentage of total storms which result in infrastructure damage. (Formula: Number of damage-causing events / total number of events = Percentage of occurrences which cause damage.) Potential Extent of Damage Vulnerability assessment matrices for each hazard are included on the following pages. These worksheets detail loss estimates for each hazard affecting the cooperative s service area. Loss estimates were calculated using the asset summary created by internal NW Electric records. Each hazard has a unique impact upon the service area, requiring each hazard to utilize a different valuation amount depending upon the level of impact. Nonhistorical hazards assume damage to all general assets. For historical hazards, assets were divided into two groups based upon historical impact which were utilized in the hazard damage analysis: Overhead infrastructure assets, substations and buildings o Used for tornado damage assessments o Valued at $1,616,856,

13 Potential Extent of Damage [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 Overhead infrastructure and substation assets only o Used for: Severe Thunderstorm/High Wind/Hail Flood Severe Winter Weather o Valued at $1,606,356,000 In addition, historical hazards with recorded damages were used to identify an average cost per event. (Formula: Total cost of damages / total number of events = Average damage cost per event.) When discussing the extent of potential damages for all hazards, the following scale was utilized: Less than 10% potential damages to total cooperative infrastructure 10-25% potential damages to total cooperative infrastructure 25-50% potential damages to total cooperative infrastructure More than 50% potential damages to total cooperative infrastructure For the purposes of this assessment, the data set from 2005 to 2010 was used. NW Electric has more thorough records for the period, with complete records from 2007 to When exact figures were not available, estimates were used. In addition, NW covers such as a large territory that it quickly generates an unwieldy amount of information to index all major storm events for an extended period of time. Regardless of hazard categorization, the following matrix (Table 1.6) will be utilized to identify the potential damage extent and likelihood of occurrence for each natural hazard type. Table 1.6 Probability of Hazard Occurrence Sample NW Electric Cooperative Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: SAMPLE Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any Near 100% probability in any Less than 10% of damage to system 10-25% damage of system 26-50% damage of system More than 50% damage of system In many instances, natural hazard events occur without causing significant damage to the cooperative s infrastructure. The more significant impact of natural hazard episodes comes in the form of outages. The infrastructure may not be significantly harmed by an 31-13

14 Potential Extent of Impact May 18, 2012 [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] ice storm, but may result in prolonged and widespread outages in the cooperative s service area. Because NW does not have customers in the same sense as distribution cooperatives, outages will be measured in terms of sections of line which lose power. When substations experience outages, significant numbers of end-use customers are affected. Impacts from outages at NW are more regional in nature than those generally experienced by outages on distribution systems. In considering the potential impact of a hazard, loss of function provides a more concise picture for comparison of events and geographic regions of the state. In addition to system damage, each hazard will be evaluated on the average number of recorded or estimated outages per event occurrence. (Formula: Average number of outages / Total number of line sections = Average percentage of outages experienced per event) Table 1.7 Probability of Damage-Causing Hazard Occurrence Sample NW Electric Power Cooperative Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: SAMPLE Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any >Near 100% probability in any Less than 10% of outages 10-25% of outages 26-50% of outages More than 50% of outages 31-14

15 [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 Section 5: Risk Assessment A) Historical Hazards: Tornadoes In the last five years, 49 tornadoes have been reported within the NW Electric primary service territory. There have been 400 tornadoes over the last 60 years. Figure 3 provides a pictorial representation of all recorded tornado touchdown sites and recorded paths. (Map Sources: NOAA, Using the previously described methodology, the probability of a tornadic event in NW Electric s service area is near 100%. (49 events/5 years = 980%). One incident caused damage to cooperative assets, resulting in a 2% probability that any given tornadic occurrence will produce damage (1 event causing damage/ 49 events = 2%). Table 1.8 provides a summary of event dates, EF-scale ratings and damages. Table 1.8 NW Electric Tornadic Event Summary Date County EF Scale rating Damages 5/13/2009 Sullivan EF1 Structure broken Source: NCDC, NW internal records Based on the last five years of historical event records, the average tornado in the primary service area was an EF1 rating. Information is not available to determine the cost estimate for the event, therefore it will be estimated to be less than 10% of total overhead assets and building valuation. Table 1.9 demonstrates the probability of occurrence in conjunction with the potential extent of damage

16 Potential Extent of Impact Potential Extent of Damage May 18, 2012 [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] Table 1.9 Probability of Hazard Occurrence NW Electric Power Cooperative Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: TORNADO Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any Near 100% probability in any Less than 10% of damage to system 10-25% damage of system 26-50% damage of system More than 50% damage of system No outages were reported during recorded tornadoes since When compared with all line sections, it can be projected that less than 1% of all line sections will experience outages during any given tornadic event. Table 1.10 demonstrates the probability of occurrence, with the potential impact on electric service. Table 1.10 Probability of Damage-Causing Hazard Occurrence NW Electric Cooperative Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: TORNADO Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any >Near 100% probability in any Less than 10% of outages 10-25% of outages 26-50% of outages More than 50% of outages 31-16

17 [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 Severe Thunderstorms, High Winds and Hail From 2005 to 2010, NW s primary service area experienced 1,143 hail events and 470 thunderstorm/high wind events. Therefore, the probability of a hail event is any given year is near 100% (1,143 events / 5 years = 22,860%) while the probability of a thunderstorm/high wind event in the NW service area in any is near 100%. (470 events / 5 years = 9,400%). Table 1.11 NW Thunderstorms Event Summary Date Location Cause Damage Estimate Whiskey Junction-Osgood-Medicine Creek Broken crossarm $1,400 69kV line Weston-Gower 69 kv line Tree on line $2, Route Z-Columbus 69 kv line Broken crossarm $1, Avalon-Hale-Indian Grove 69kV line Tree in line $2, Missouri City-Kearny-Summerset 69 kv line Stick on line $1,100 Source: NW Internal Records Material damages associated with each of these events were compiled by NW staff, then cost estimates were determined using the asset inventory valuation. Table 1.11 provides a summary of those thunderstorm events which caused damage to cooperative infrastructure by date and cost estimate of damage. Four of 470 occurrences caused damage to cooperative assets, resulting in a less than 1 % probability that any given thunderstorm occurrence will produce damage. (4/470 =.8511 %). Based on historical records, the average thunderstorm event to affect the cooperative will cause an average damage cost of $1,580 ($7,900/ 5 events = $1,580). This averaged amount accounts for less than 1% of NW s overhead asset valuation. ($1,580 / $1,606,356,000 = %). No damages or outages were recorded in association with hail events. Table 1.12 demonstrates the probability of occurrence in conjunction with the potential extent of damage for both hail and thunderstorm/high wind events

18 Potential Extent of Impact Potential Extent of Damage May 18, 2012 [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] Table 1.12 Probability of Hazard Occurrence NW Electric Cooperative Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: THUNDERSTORM/HIGH WIND/HAIL Less than 10% of damage to system Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any Near 100% probability in any 10-25% damage of system 26-50% damage of system More than 50% damage of system Five of 130 line sections lost power due to thunderstorm or hail events from 2005 to 2010, indicating less than 4% of sections can be expected to lose power from a thunderstorm or hail event (5 outages / 130 sections = 3.846%). Five incidents caused damages in five years, indicating less than 1% probability of damage-causing hazard occurrence (5 damage causing events / 1,613 events =.3099%). Table 1.13 demonstrates the probability of occurrence in conjunction with the potential extent of impact upon customers. Table 1.13 Probability of Damage-Causing Hazard Occurrence NW Electric Cooperative Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: THUNDERSTORM/ HIGH WINT/HAIL Less than 10% of outages Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any >Near 100% probability in any 10-25% of outages 26-50% of outages More than 50% of outages 31-18

19 Flood and Levee Failure [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 Flooding is a natural hazard that presents a recurring threat to NW Electric s infrastructure. Although limited to locations near rivers, flooding presents a danger when power lines cross rivers or when flooding for an extended period puts assets at risk. The Missouri River is the largest river in NW s service territory. The river flows through 12 counties in the primary service territory and involves both federal and non-federal levees. Other major waterways include the Platte, Grand, 102, Chariton, Thompson and Blackwater rivers. Figure 4 depicts the 100-year floodplain in relation to the cooperative s boundaries. (Map sources: FMEA HAZUS-MH, Q3, DFIRM data from FEMA Map Service Center.) Currently, inundation data for levee failure is not available due to issues surrounding mapping, appropriate models and its close association with flooding events. Figure 5 provides the location of known state and federal levees within the cooperative s boundaries. (Map Sources: U.S. Department of Agricuture, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Missouri Spatial Data Information Service.) From 2005 to 2011, NW s service area experienced 396 separate flood events. Currently, no data concerning levee failure damage can be separated from flood damage data. Therefore, the probability of a flood/levee event affecting the cooperative assets in any is near 100% (396 flood events / 6 years = 6,600%). Estimated material damages associated with each of these events were compiled by NW staff. Table 1.14 summarizes flood event dates by date, county and cost estimates. Four of 396 flood occurrences resulted in damage to cooperative assets, resulting in about a 1% probability that any given flood occurrence will cause damage. (4 / 396 = %) 31-19

20 Potential Extent of Damage May 18, 2012 [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] Table 1.14 NW Flood Event Summary Date Location Cost June-August 2011 Holt County $32,629 June-August 2011 Atchison County $35,801 June-August 2011 Clay County $98,819 June-August 2011 Holt County $87,719 Source: NW internal records Flood and levee failure events vary widely based upon numerous factors including, but not limited to, annual precipitation and extent of levee damage. Not all events, however, are as extensive as evidenced in Table Based upon historical records, the average flood/levee failure event to affect the cooperative will cause an average damage cost of $63,742 ($254,968 / 4 = $63,742). This averaged amount accounts for less than 1% of NW s overhead asset valuation ($63,741 / $1,606,356,000 =.0039%). Table 1.15 demonstrates the probability of occurrence in conjunction with the potential extent of damage. Table 1.15 Probability of Hazard Occurrence NW Electric Cooperative Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: FLOOD Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any Near 100% probability in any Less than 10% of damage to system 10-25% damage of system 26-50% damage of system More than 50% damage of system No outages from 2007 to 2011 were recorded as the result of flooding. Flooding, however, has impacted the cooperative. The substation at Phelps City is located in the Missouri River floodplain in Atchison County. The substation was inundated with up to five feet of water during three months of flooding in Structures and poles supporting the line around the substation were washed out. NW continued to operate the substation because it is a critical link in the network. NW worked with the distribution cooperative, Atchison-Holt Electric, to provide power from the substation. Table 1.16 demonstrates the probability of occurrence in conjunction with the potential extent of impact upon customers

21 Potential Extent of Damage Potential Extent of Impact [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 Table 1.16 Probability of Damage-Causing Hazard Occurrence NW Electric Cooperative Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: FLOOD Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any >Near 100% probability in any Less than 10% of outages 10-25% of outages 26-50% of outages More than 50% of outages Severe Winter Weather From , NW s service area experienced a total of 384 severe winter weather events, including significant snowfall and ice storms. Therefore, the probability of a severe winter weather event in the NW service area in any is near 100 % (384 events / 5 years = 7,680 %). Information is not available to determine material damage estimates associated with these events, so it will be estimated at less than 10%. Table 1.17 demonstrates the probability of occurrence in conjunction with the potential extent of damage. Table 1.17 Probability of Hazard Occurrence NW Electric Cooperative Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: SEVERE WINTER WEATHER Less than 10% of damage to system Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any Near 100% probability in any 10-25% damage of system 26-50% damage of system More than 50% damage of system Table 1.18 provides a summary of event dates, line location and causes of power outages. Outages are more common than system damage due to severe winter weather

22 Potential Extent of Impact May 18, 2012 [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] Table 1.18 NW Severe Winter Weather Event Summary Date Line Section Location Cause 12/11/2007 King City-Flag Springs-Savannah Ice 12/12/2007 King City-Flag Springs-Savannah Ice 12/13/2007 Gallatin-Nettleton Ice 12/13/2007 Savannah-Midway Ice 12/13/2007 Midway-New Point Tap-Mound City Ice 12/13/2007 King City-Flag Springs-Savannah Ice 12/13/2007 Mound City-Craig Ice 12/13/2007 Savannah-Fillmore Ice 12/13/2007 Darlington-Stanberry-Conception Ice 12/13/2007 Conception-Skidmore-Quitman Ice 12/13/2007 Sheridan-Hopkins Ice 12/13/2007 Grant City-Sheridan Ice 12/13/2007 Darlington-Albany Tap-Grant City Ice 12/13/2007 Kidder-Nettleton Ice 12/13/2007 Jameson-Gallatin Ice Source: NW Internal Records Based upon these historical records, the average winter storm event caused outages at 15 of 130 line sections, which would be about 12% of sections (15 outages / 130 line sections = %). Damage-causing events occurred approximately 4% of the time (15 damage-causing events / 384 events = %). Table 1.19 demonstrates the probability of occurrence in conjunction with the potential impact on outages. Table 1.19 Probability of Damage-Causing Hazard Occurrence NW Electric Cooperative Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: SEVERE WINTER WEATHER Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any >Near 100% probability in any Less than 10% of outages 10-25% of outages 26-50% of outages More than 50% of outages 31-22

23 [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 Wildfire The incidence of wildfire in NW s service area presents a unique risk assessment. Wildfire events have occurred in all counties. Table 1.20 shows information from the Missouri State Hazard Mitigation Plan that lists wildfires for NW Electric s primary region from 2004 to 2008 by county. Therefore the probability of a wildfire event in NW s service area in any is near 100 %. (2,841 events / 4 years = 71,025 %) For the purposes of this assessment, wildfire and its associated impacts cannot be eliminated from the realm of possibility. Table 1.20 County Wildfire Summary by County Wildfires Average ( ) Annual # of Wildfires Acres Burned Average Annual Acres Burned Total Buildings Damaged Andrew Atchison Buchanan Caldwell , Carroll , Chariton Clay Clinton Daviess DeKalb , Gentry , Grundy Harrison , Henry ,990 1,798 8 Holt Jackson Johnson , Lafayette Linn , Livingston Mercer Nodaway , Platte Putnam Randolph , Ray Sullivan Worth Total 2, ,627 8, Source: Missouri State Hazard Mitigation Plan The potential extent of damage caused by wildfire is difficult to determine. Like earthquakes and dam failure, wildfires have had no measurable impact upon NW s service area. To date, 2,841 fires burned a total of 42,627 acres over the four-year period, for an average of about 15 acres affected per event. NW sustained no recorded damage related in its service area during this time period. Cooperatives assets are located throughout the service area rather than being located at a single central site. With an 31-23

24 Potential Extent of Impact Potential Extent of Damage May 18, 2012 [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] average of 15 acres per fire in the service area, it is unlikely that infrastructure damage would exceed 5% based upon asset location and unlikeliness of uncontrollable wildfire. This initial assessment assumes a limited impact upon electric distribution infrastructure of less than 10%, as shown in Table Further study will be required to create a model for damage assessments related to wildfire. Table 1.21 Probability of Hazard Occurrence NW Electric Cooperative Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: WILDFIRE Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any Near 100% probability in any Less than 10% of damage to system 10-25% damage of system 26-50% damage of system More than 50% damage of system No outages were recorded in conjunction with wildfires between 2004 and Table 1.22 demonstrates the probability of occurrence in conjunction with the potential extent of impact upon cooperative customers. Table 1.22 Probability of Damage-Causing Hazard Occurrence NW Electric Cooperative Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Wildfire Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any >Near 100% probability in any Less than 10% of outages 10-25% of outages 26-50% of outages More than 50% of outages 31-24

25 [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 B. Non-historical Hazards Earthquakes NW Electric s service territory has not experienced an earthquake since the cooperative began operating, but potential threats are nearby. The Nemaha Fault extends from Oklahoma City, Okla., north to Lincoln, Neb. In 1993, the Nemaha fault produced a discernable earthquake that was felt in the northwest part of NW s region, rating a 2.9 on the Richter Scale of Earthquake Intensity. Additional quakes took place Feb. 11, 1995, (3.1 magnitude); July 16, 2004, (3.5 magnitude); March 23, 2003, (3.1 magnitude); and Dec. 17, 2009 (3.6 magnitude). Although a relatively quiet fault system, the Nemaha fault has the potential to produce a damaging earthquake affecting NW s assets. The region is also subject to effects of the New Madrid Fault located in extreme southeast Missouri, which has, according to many experts, the potential to produce the largest earthquakes in North America. This fault has the potential to affect the entire NW service territory. In addition, there have been several small, virtually undetectable earth movements in the region in recent history, which may or may not be attributed to the aforementioned fault lines or other, very small faults located nearby. The New Madrid fault has the potential to cause damage throughout the state of Missouri and the area served by NW Electric. Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Center for Earthquake Research and Information (CERI) at the University of Memphis have estimated the probability of a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake from the New Madrid Fault is % through the year The projected earthquake intensity ratings for the cooperative region changes based upon the Modified Mercalli Scale. Given a New Madrid earthquake with a 6.7 magnitude the region would experience mostly Level V intensity characteristics, but the counties of Chariton and Putnam would experience Level VI intensity characteristics. In the event of an earthquake with a 7.6 magnitude, the region would experience Level VI and Level VII intensity ratings while an earthquake with an 8.6 magnitude would cause Level VII and Level VIII intensity characteristics. In the event of an earthquake with a 7.6 magnitude, the majority of the NW service area would most likely experience minor building damage as well as damage to the electrical distribution system. This damage would be relatively minimal and localized when compared with the southeast sector of the state. However, transmission lines overhead could become disconnected or severed, and transformers could be damaged. Though the probability of occurrence is very small, the potential extent of damage could significantly impact both the cooperative and its member cooperatives as demonstrated in Table

26 Potential Extent of Impact Potential Extent of Damage May 18, 2012 [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] Table 1.23 Probability of Hazard Occurrence NW Electric Cooperative Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: EARTHQUAKE Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any Near 100% probability in any Less than 10% of damage to system 10-25% damage of system 26-50% damage of system More than 50% damage of system Based upon information from CERI, FEMA, and SEMA, it may be estimated that up to 20% of NW s line sections could be affected by any given seismic event. Table 1.24 demonstrates the probability of occurrence in conjunction with the potential extent of impact upon local customers. Table 1.24 Probability of Damage Causing Hazard Occurrence NW Electric Cooperative Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: EARTHQUAKE Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any >Near 100% probability in any Less than 10% of outages 10-25% of outages 26-50% of outages More than 50% of outages 31-26

27 Dam Failure [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 Dam failures have had no measureable impact upon NW s service area to date. According to the Missouri DNR s Dam Safety Division, 1,877 dams currently exist within the cooperative boundaries: 28 in Andrew County, 15 in Atchison County, 32 in Buchanan County, 25 in Caldwell County, 114 in Carroll County, 32 in Chariton County, 41 in Clay County, 26 in Clinton County, 23 in Daviess County, 70 in DeKalb County, 21 in Gentry County, 50 in Grundy County, 261 in Harrison County, 52 in Henry County, 27 in Holt County, 79 in Jackson County, 99 in Johnson County, 192 in Lafayette County, 59 in Linn County, 73 in Livingston County, 53 in Mercer County, 101 in Nodaway County, 29 in Platte County, 73 in Putnam County, 52 in Randolph County, 49 in Ray County, 137 in Sullivan County and 64 in Worth County. Of these dams, one in Andrew County, four in Buchanan County, one in Caldwell County, four in Chariton County, five in Clay County, four in Clinton County, four in Daviess County, 10 in DeKalb County, one in Grundy County, four in Harrison County, 17 in Jackson County, seven in Johnson County, 35 in Lafayette County, one in Linn County, two in Livingston County, six in Mercer County, 13 in Nodaway County, five in Platte County, two in Putnam County, seven in Randolph County, five in Ray County, five in Sullivan County and three in Worth County are regulated by the state due to the fact that they are nonagricultural, non-federal dams which exceed 35 feet in height. Figure 6 shows the locations of all known dams located within NW s service area. (Map sources: There have been 26 dam failures that have occurred within the state of Missouri over the past 100 years. While a few incidents have been within the NW region, there have been no major failures. For the purposes of this assessment, dam failure and its associated impacts cannot be eliminated from the realm of possibility. In order to allow for risk assessment, the probability of this event has been included as less than 1 %. Determining the potential extent of dam failure is currently impossible due to a lack of data concerning inundation zones. Further study concerning existing dams and their impact is required to make a more comprehensive assessment of potential damages. This initial assessment assumes a limited impact upon 31-27

28 Potential Extent of Impact Potential Extent of Damage May 18, 2012 [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] downstream electric distribution infrastructure of less than 10% for both infrastructure damage and service interruption. (Tables 1.25 and 1.26). Table 1.25 Probability of Hazard Occurrence NW Electric Cooperative Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: DAM FAILURE Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any Near 100% probability in any Less than 10% of damage to system 10-25% damage of system 26-50% damage of system More than 50% damage of system Table 1.26 Probability of Damage-Causing Hazard Occurrence NW Electric Cooperative Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: DAM FAILURE Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any >Near 100% probability in any Less than 10% of outages 10-25% of outages 26-50% of outages More than 50% of outages 31-28

29 Potential Extent of Damage [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 Severe Land Subsidence (Sinkholes) Land subsidence or sinkholes are not a concern for NW s primary service territory. However, the hazard is a possibility for the small portion of the assets in southwest Missouri. These areas are underlain by carbonate rocks containing mainly limestone and some dolomite bedrock, making them sensitive to water dissolution. In Missouri, sinkhole problems are usually a result of surface materials above openings intobedrock caves eroding and collapsing into the cave opening. Although sinkholes have to potential to affect NW s operations, there are no documented instances of sinkhole damage. However, for the purposes of this assessment, land subsidence and associated impacts cannot be eliminated from the realm of possibility. In order to allow for a risk assessment, the probability of this event has been included as less than 1%. Table 1.27 depicts the vulnerability of NW s assets to the hazard of sinkholes based on probability of occurrence and extent of damage. Due to the localized nature of sinkhole impacts, it is estimated that less than 1% damage will occur to the system in the event of sinkhole formation. Table 1.27 Probability of Hazard Occurrence NW Electric Cooperative Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: LAND SUBSIDENCE Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any Near 100% probability in any Less than 10% of damage to system 10-25% damage of system 26-50% damage of system More than 50% damage of system Determining the potential extent of impact in terms of outages due to sinkhole formation is difficult to pinpoint; however, is can be expected that such an event would cause less than 10% of lines to experience outages. Table 1.28 depicts the impact measured in reported outages combined with the probability of occurrence

30 Potential Extent of Impact May 18, 2012 [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] Table 1.28 Probability of Damage-Causing Hazard Occurrence NW Electric Cooperative Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: LAND SUBSIDENCE Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any >Near 100% probability in any Less than 10% of outages 10-25% of outages 26-50% of outages More than 50% of outages 31-30

31 [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 Section 6: Mitigation strategies Previous efforts at mitigation For NW Electric Power, mitigation is incorporated in daily business operations. In order to ensure the delivery of a quality product and minimize the service interruptions, a number of mitigation strategies are continually utilized. The cooperative seeks to minimize power outages as much as possible, while maintaining reasonable rates for distribution cooperatives. NW emphasizes mitigation efforts as the most efficient way to deliver a quality project and minimize service interruptions. Routine maintenance and upgrades to existing equipment is completed as part of daily tasks. Vegetation management, for instance, is a priority for the cooperative. Trees are inspected and trimmed for the entire system over a period of four to five years, and more often in areas as needed. Safety and reporting information are disseminated to the public through various types of media. Mutual aid agreements and partnerships create relationships which provide for future support in the event of a natural disaster. Mitigation is considered prior to any expansion of service into special hazard areas. USDA-RUS specifications regarding operation and safety are utilized throughout the process. Steps are taken to minimize the exposure of equipment to loss due to foreseeable hazards, particularly flooding. Existing and potential resources NW Electric includes mitigation strategies as part of regular work activities to ensure service with minimal interruptions. Funding for these activities is provided through the cooperative s normal budgetary process for maintenance. In order to expand mitigation efforts beyond normal maintenance, it is likely that NW Electric will need to seek outside funding sources. These may include private, state or federal programs which provide grant and loan funding.upon passage of this plan, NW will be eligible for funding through FEMA in the following categories: Hazard Mitigation Grant Program Flood Mitigation Assistance Program Pre-Disaster Mitigation Program 406 Stafford Act Development of goals, objectives, and action Establishing mitigation goals, objectives and action items for a business entity requires a slightly different approach than public agencies. Certainly, a number of similarities exist; both entities must consider which hazards most commonly occur and have the greatest potential for causing disruption to members or residents. They must also consider which types of actions will maximize benefits and minimize costs, how mitigation strategies 31-31

32 May 18, 2012 [NW ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE] will be implemented, who will enforce implementation, and how the overall plan will be maintained and updated. NW s mitigation planning committee, with assistance from Mo-Kan staff, worked to identify goals, objectives and actions which addressed hazard mitigation issues. The committee first identified ongoing mitigation strategies as well as potential strategies which seek to improve service and limit disruptions resulting from natural hazards.action items were then analyzed for common characteristics and summarized to create nine objectives. These nine objectives were grouped into similar categories and used as the basis for the four overarching goals. Table 1.29 provides a synopsis of the goals and objectives before prioritization. Table 1.29 Identified Goals Goal 1: Protect the health and safety of the community. Goal 2: Reduce future losses due to natural hazard events. Goal 3: Improve emergency management capabilities and enhance local partnerships. NW Electric Goals and Objectives Identified Objectives Objective 1: Prevent injury, loss of life, and damage to property. Objective 2: Reduce outage time to critical facilities. Objective 1: Protect and maintain existing infrastructure. Objective 2: Research and develop plans for future infrastructure improvements, seeking implementation where feasible. Objective 3: Research and develop plans for future communication and data collection improvements where feasible. Objective 1: Improve assessment of outages and reduce response time. Objective 2: Create or maintain partnerships with outside agencies. Objective 3: Utilize media resources to promote public education through member cooperatives. Traditionally, the STAPLEE (Social, Technical, Administrative, Political, Legal, Environmental, and Economic) method is used to prioritize mitigation actions. These categories, however, do not necessarily align with the private sector in the same way they are applicable to governmental agencies. A number of action items could be included with multiple goals and objectives, for example. As a result, the committee chose to use a different method to prioritize their mitigation strategy. After identifying ongoing and potential action items, the committee created three priority tiers: First tier actions focus on physical infrastructure protection and improvements which ensure continued, quality service and seek to reduce power outages. These types of actions are the highest priority of NW Electric. Second tier actions create and maintain working relationships to reduce and prevent the impact of power outages. These include improvements to safety and 31-32