Section 1: Introduction

Transcription

1 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] May 18, 2012 Section 1: Introduction Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. (AECI) was established in 1961 to provide wholesale power generation and transmission to its member-owners. Associated is owned by and provides wholesale power to six regional generation and transmission cooperatives (G & Ts). In turn, these six regional generation and transmission cooperatives are owned by and provide wholesale power to 51 local electric cooperative systems (distribution cooperatives) in Missouri, southeast Iowa and northeast Oklahoma. The organization provides power for more than 875,000 customers in three states. Associated is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri and operates on a not-for-profit cooperative basis. The organization employs approximately 660 people at three locations. It furnishes electric power and energy to its members pursuant to the all-requirements wholesale power contracts that extend through The wholesale power contracts require each member to purchase all its electric power and energy needs from Associated. Associated obtains the electric power and energy needed to serve its members from a combination of generation that Associated owns and operates; generation owned by others but operated and/or dispatched by Associated; and purchased power. Figure 1 2-1

2 May 18, 2012 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] The cooperative is run by a 12-member board that is elected to serve and represent Associated s six owner generation and transmission cooperatives. Associated s vision is to be the lowest cost wholesale power supplier. Its mission is to provide an economical and reliable power supply and support services to its members. (Source: Associated s website - Service boundaries for Associated include all of the State of Missouri, with a significant portion of northeast Oklahoma and a portion of southern Iowa. The cooperative owns miles of transmission line and 12 operating power generation facilities. Figure 1 shows the Missouri geographic boundaries of Associated. (Map source: Associated s website The 51 cooperatives that distribute power to an estimated 875,000 homes, farms and businesses, are part of a unique three-tiered system. The distribution cooperatives are the first tier. They own the G & Ts which form the second tier and are responsible for transmitting power from Associated to the distribution cooperatives. G & Ts work on a regional level as construction agents and own the majority of transmission systems from 69-kilovolt to 161-kilovolt. At one time, the G & Ts not only transmitted the power to their member distribution cooperatives, they also generated or purchased power as well. (Source: Associated s website - The six G & Ts formed Associated in 1961 to take care of generation, power procurement, and high voltage transmission. They include Central Electric Power Cooperative, located in Jefferson City, MO; KAMO Power, located in Vinita, OK; M&A Electric Power Cooperative, located in Poplar Bluff, MO; Northeast Missouri Electric Power Cooperative, located in Palmyra, MO; NW Electric Power Cooperative, Inc., located in Cameron, MO; and Sho-Me Power Electric Cooperative, located in Marshfield, MO. Associated and its six G & T owners have built and own an integrated transmission system that consists of 9,621 miles of high-voltage transmission line, as well as more than 850 related substations. The transmission system enables Associated to reliably serve members and transact power purchases and sales for the benefit of its owner systems. Associated has 181 transmission interconnections; 21 transmission interconnection agreements; and transacts business with investor-owned and municipal utilities, electric cooperatives, power marketing firms and regional transmission organizations. AECI Generation Baseload generation includes the New Madrid Power Plant in New Madrid, MO, a coal plant that includes two units of 600 MW for a total capacity of 1,200 MW of generation; and the Thomas Hill Energy Center in Clifton Hill, MO., a coal plant that includes three units of 180 MW, 303 MW, and 670 MW, for a total capacity of 1,153 MW. Table 1 lists all of the Associated power generation facilities, as well as location, type of power, number of units and total capacity. 2-2

3 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] May 18, 2012 Table 1: AECI Generation Facilities Generation Facilities Location Type of Power Number of Units Total Capacity New Madrid Power New Madrid, Plant MO Coal MW Thomas Hill Energy Clifton Hill, Center MO Coal 3 1,153 MW Chouteau I Power Plant Pryor, OK Natural Gas MW Chouteau II Power Plant Pryor, OK Natural Gas MW Dell Power Plant Dell, AR Natural Gas MW St. Francis Power Glennonville, Plant MO Natural Gas MW Essex Power Plant Idalia, MO Natural Gas MW Holden Power Plant Holden, MO Gas/Oil MW Nodaway Power Plant Maryville, MO Natural Gas MW Unionville Power Plant Unionville, MO Oil 2 45 MW Source: AECI records Intermediate generation includes the Chouteau I Power Plant, Pryor, OK, two combinedcycle gas-based units, for a total generating capacity of 522 MW and Chouteau II Power Plant, two combined-cycle gas-based units with a total generating capacity of 540 MW; Dell Power Plant, Dell, AR, two combined-cycle, gas-based units, for a total generating capacity of 580 MW; and the St. Francis Power Plant, Glennonville, MO, two combined cycle gas-based units, for a total capacity of 501 MW. Peaking generation includes the Essex Power Plant in Idalia, MO, a simple-cycle gas-based unit of 107 MW; the Holden Power Plant, three simple-cycle, dual fuel gas and oil units, for a total of capacity of 321 MW; the Nodaway Power Plant in Maryville, MO, two simple-cycle, gas-based units of total capacity of 182 MW; and Unionville Figure 2 Power Plant in Unionville, MO, two simple-cycle oil units for a total capacity of 45 MW. Figure 2 2-3

4 May 18, 2012 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] is a map of the entire AECI system, including the five G & Ts, as well as the general location of all of Associated s facilities. (Map Source: AECI) Of the estimate 2,065,910 customers served by Associated, an estimated 1,632,087 are located in Missouri. Associated has a total generating capacity, including both owned facilities and contracted power of 5,795 MW. Peak loads over the past eight years have varied from 3,678 MW to 4,441 MW for summer usage, and between 3,494 MW and 4,495 MW during winter months. Annual total usage of Associated customers in 2010 was 19,730,263 MWh of service. Population density for the cooperative service area is depicted in Figure 3 (Map source: U.S. Census 2010). Figure 3 2-4

5 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] May 18, 2012 Section 2: Planning process Through a partnership between the Association of Missouri Electric Cooperatives and the Missouri Association of Councils of Government, the Meramec Regional Planning Commission was contracted to facilitate a hazard mitigation planning process for Associated. The initial meeting between the two entities was held on January 18, 2011 as part of a regional kick-off meeting for southwest Missouri. This informational meeting provided the basic responsibilities for each agency and allowed for initial discussion concerning the project timelines, data collection and other pertinent topics. One additional planning meeting was held at the Associated offices in Springfield, Missouri in August Table 1.2 summarizes the attendees and topics of that meeting. All additional planning activities and information exchanges were conducted by and/or phone. Meeting minutes are available in the chapter appendix. Table 1.2 ASSOCIATED Planning Meeting Synopsis Meeting Date Attendees, Title, Organization Topics of discussion August 25, 2011 Rhonda Day, Risk Analyst III, AECI Review of draft plan Jeff Harrison, Supervisor, System Operations, Review of goals, objectives, AECI Teri Nelson GIS Coordinator, AECI action items Identification of on-going/ John Bussman, Manager, Reliability, AECI Randy Murdaugh, Risk Manager, AECI Chris Bolick, Manager, System Operations, AECI Lacie Shook, Associated General Council, AECI potential mitigation strategies Analysis of action items Development of goals Review of timeline/deadlines Tamara Snodgrass, Regional Planner, MRPC Public Involvement As with all public hazard mitigation plans, public involvement was encouraged through a variety of methods. Associated posted their local chapter on the company s website, inviting both cooperative members and the general public to provide comment. Print copies of the chapter were also made available upon request through the local office. Comments from neighboring jurisdictions were also solicited using the standardized AMEC letter which was mailed to the appropriate contacts, including: Butler County Commission, Callaway County Commission, Cole County Commission, DeKalb County Commission, Dent County Commission, Dunklin County Commission, Gentry County Commission, Greene County Commission, Jefferson County Commission, Johnson County Commission, 2-5

6 May 18, 2012 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] Laclede County Commission, Marion County Commission, Moniteau County Commission, New Madrid County Commission, Nodaway County Commission, Pulaski County Commission, Randolph County Commission, Stoddard County Commission, Local emergency management directors, and Red Cross. In regards to critical facilities, Associated does not supply power directly to any individual customers. Associated provides wholesale power to the G & Ts, who provide the power to the distribution coops. However, Associated s power generation facilities are considered critical infrastructure because of their role in electricity generation for all of rural Missouri. Additionally, Associated s mitigation plan was included in the public comment period for the combined AMEC plan. 2-6

7 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] May 18, 2012 Section 3: Asset inventory Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. has a wide variety of assets by type. Real estate owned by the company includes office buildings, warehouses, garages, and other outbuildings throughout the service area. Associated owns 124 vehicles, which provide access to customers and infrastructure. Associated owns ten electric generation facilities as well as some transmission infrastructure. Because Associated does not provide distribution of power to customers, they own zero miles of distribution lines. Table 1.3 provides information concerning total asset valuation. Ensuring adequate and economic power, Associated owns and operates only generation facilities, substations and transmission lines. Table 1.4 includes a list of asset types, emergency replacement cost per unit or mile, the asset inventory by Missouri service county, and total infrastructure numbers. 2-7

8 May 18, 2012 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] Table 1.3 Associated Asset Inventory Valuation Summary Asset Total Replacement Cost breakdown Cost Total AECI Assets Total AECI Missouribased Assets (excludes Chamois) Power Generation Facilities $7,316,114,980 $5,527,614,980 $6,556,330,120 total $4,856,330,120 MO Buildings and vehicles - $102,375,636 Overhead assets (transmission lines) - $595,527,400 Substations - $58,300,602 Windmills - $1,081,221 Cost Breakdown Range: $18,675,000 - $1,980,000,000 New Madrid Power Plant Thomas Hill Power Plant *Chamois Power Plant Unionville Power Plant Essex I Power Plant Essex II (in storage) Nodaway Power Plant St. Francis Power Plant **Chouteau I Power Plant **Chouteau II Power Plant Holden Power Plant ***Dell Power Plant Substations $59,381,823 Cost Breakdown Range: $1,079,885 - $14,590,336 Atchison 69/345 Cow Branch Windmill Brookline (transformer) Clyde 69/345 Enon (transformer) Fairport Fletcher Franks Gentry Gobbler Knob Huben Kingdom City McCredie Morgan Palmyra Salem Transmission Lines miles $595,527,400 (OH) OH 161 kv lines (1.22 miles) - $878,400 OH 345 kv lines ( miles) - $525,904,000 OH 500 kv lines (45.83 miles) - $68,745,000 Mobile Equipment $17,272,274 Cost Breakdown Range: $2,713,561 - $7,885,262 Thomas Hill New Madrid Mine Office Buildings $23,355,458 Warehouses $58,876,903 Coal Stockpiles $43,658,471 Cost Breakdown Range: $20,447,896 - $23,210,575 Thomas Hill New Madrid Source: Internal Associated Accounting and Insurance records, 2011 *c/o Central Electric Power Cooperative ** Located in Oklahoma *** Located in Arkansas 2-8

9 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] May 18, 2012 Section 4: Identified Hazards and Risk Assessment Methodology Natural hazards in Missouri vary dramatically with regard to intensity, frequency, and the scope of impact. Some hazards, like earthquakes, happen without warning and do not provide any opportunity to prepare for the threat. Other hazards, such as tornadoes, flooding, or severe winter storms, provide a period of warning which allows for public preparation prior to their occurrence. Drought would be another hazard that allows for significant warning and time to prepare. Although drought does not directly impact the delivery of electric service, it can impact facilities that rely upon natural water sources. Due to the water cooling needs of all of the power generation facilities operated by Associated, the planning group decided to include drought in the list of hazards affecting Associated. Hazard mitigation planning can lessen the negative impact of any natural disaster regardless of onset time. The following natural hazards have been identified as potential threats for the service region of Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc.: Tornadoes Severe Thunderstorms, Hail, and High Winds Flood and Levee Failure Severe Winter Weather Earthquakes Severe Land Subsidence Dam Failure Wildfire Drought Likewise, a number of hazards may be eliminated from consideration in their local plan due to the state s geographic location including tsunamis, hurricanes, coastal storms, volcanic activity, avalanche, and tropical storms. Additionally, a number of hazards may be eliminated specifically for Associated because of asset types and geographic location in the state of Missouri. Those hazards eliminated for the Associated service region include: Heat Wave Landslides Heat wave has been eliminated. Though it may result in additional usage and potentially tax the system, heat waves do not usually cause infrastructure damage to cooperative assets. The results of a heat wave in the Associated service area may be considered cascading events rather than damage caused directly by the hazard itself. Landslides have also been eliminated based upon local soil structure categorization by the USGS and the lack of historical landslide events. For the purpose of this risk assessment, the identified hazards for the Associated service area have been divided into two categories: historical and non-historical hazards. 2-9

10 May 18, 2012 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] Historical Hazards are those hazards with a measurable previous impact upon the service area. Damage costs per event and a chronology of occurrences are available. The Associated vulnerability assessments utilize the number of events and cost of each event to establish an average cost per incident. For Associated, hazards with historical data include tornadoes, severe thunderstorms/high wind/hail, flood, severe winter weather, and wildfire. Non-Historical Hazards are hazards with no previous record of impact upon the local service area. As such, the Associated vulnerability assessments for each of these hazards will have an occurrence probability of less than 1% in any given year, but the extent of damage will vary considerably. For Associated, hazards without historical data include earthquakes, levee failure, severe land subsidence, drought and dam failure. Probability of Occurrence In determining the potential frequency of occurrences, a simple formula was used. For historical events, the number of recorded events for the service area was divided by the number of years of record. This number was then multiplied by 100 to provide a percentage. This formula was used to determine future probability for each hazard. For events that have not occurred, a probability of less than 1% was automatically assigned as the hazard cannot be excluded from the possibility of occurrence. Likewise, when discussing the probable risk of each hazard based upon historical occurrences, the following scale was utilized: Less than 1% chance of an event occurrence in any. 1-10% chance of an event occurrence in any 10-99% chance of an event occurrence in any Near 100% chance of an event occurrence in any The number of occurrences was further refined to focus on damage-causing events. Those occasions which had reported damages were divided by the total number of recorded events to obtain a percentage of total storms which result in infrastructure damage. (Formula: Number of damage-causing events / total number of events = Percentage of occurrences which cause damage.) Potential Extent of Damage Vulnerability Assessment matrices for each hazard are included on the following pages. These worksheets detail loss estimates for each hazard affecting the cooperative s service area. Loss estimates were calculated using the asset summary created by internal Associated accounting records. Each hazard has a unique impact upon the service area, requiring each hazard to utilize a different valuation amount depending upon the level of impact. Non-historical hazards assume damage to all general assets. For Historical Hazards, assets were divided into two groups based upon historical impact which were utilized in the hazard damage analysis: 2-10

11 Potential Extent of Damage [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] May 18, 2012 Missouri overhead infrastructure assets, substations, power generation facilities and other buildings o Used for Tornado damage assessments o Valued at $5,527,614,980 Missouri overhead infrastructure assets and substations only o Used for: Severe Thunderstorm / High Wind / Hail Flood Severe Winter Weather Wildfire o Valued at $654,909,223 In addition, historical hazards with recorded damages were used to identify an average cost per event. (Formula: Total cost of damages / total number of events = Average damage cost per event.) When discussing the extent of potential damages for all hazards, the following scale was utilized: Less than 10% potential damages to total cooperative infrastructure 10-25% potential damages to total cooperative infrastructure 25-50% potential damages to total cooperative infrastructure More than 50% potential damages to total cooperative infrastructure Regardless of hazard categorization, the following matrix (Table 1.5) will be utilized to identify the potential damage extent and likelihood of occurrence for each natural hazard type. Table 1.5 Probability of Hazard Occurrence Sample Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any Near 100% probability in any Less than 10% of damage to system 10-25% damage of system 26-50% damage of system More than 50% damage of system In many instances, natural hazard events occur without causing significant damage to the cooperative s infrastructure. The more significant impact of natural hazard episodes comes in the form of reported customer outages. The infrastructure may not be significantly harmed by an ice storm, but may result in prolonged and widespread outages 2-11

12 Potential Extent of Impact May 18, 2012 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] in the cooperative s service area. In considering the potential impact of a hazard, loss of function provides a more concise picture for comparison of events and geographic regions of the state. In addition to system damage, each hazard will be evaluated on the average number of reported or estimated outages per event occurrence. (Formula: Average number of outages reported / Total number of customers = Average percentage of outages reported per event). Associated differs from other cooperatives because it does not directly serve residential, commercial or industrial users. Instead, Associated s direct customers are the six G & Ts across the state of Missouri. Associated-owned facilities are generally 200 kv and above and/or switchyards at generating stations. Certainly damage to Associated s facilities can affect the ability of other cooperatives to serve the end users, but for the purposes of this assessment, only the G & T members are considered to be direct customers of Associated. AECI has suffered outages in the past that could have resulted in a number of outages if not for the ability to import power from neighboring utilities. Customer outages may be created by not only AECI damaged facilities, but also damage to distribution lines, substations in the area, and whether there is a way to re-route power to supply the end customer. Because hard data was not available, the planning committee chose to estimate the number of G & T members potentially impacted in the event of a hazard occurrence. Table 1.6 Sample Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Less than 10% of customers report outages 10-25% of customers report outages 26-50% of customers report outages More than 50% of customers report outages Probability of Damage-causing Hazard Occurrence Less than 1-10% chance 10-99% 1% in any in any given year chance in any > Near 100% probability in any 2-12

13 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] May 18, 2012 Section 5: Risk Assessment A) Historical Hazards: Tornadoes Since 1950, there have been 2,221 tornados reported across the state of Missouri. In the same time period, there have been 841 tornadoes reported within the 39 counties where Associated owns physical assets. Figure 4 provides a pictorial representation of all recorded tornado touchdown sites and the recorded paths. (Data for map collected from NOAA.) A data insufficiency exists, however, prior to 2006 in both historical hazard records and cooperative records concerning damage estimates. Associated staff was only able to provide damage estimates for major events for the past five years that resulted in AECI filing FEMA claims. For the purposes of this assessment, the years for which records exist for both data sets have been used. From , the counties where Associated has physical assets within the state of Missouri has experienced a total of 157 tornadic events. Using the previously described methodology, the probability of a tornadic event in the Associated service area in any is near to 100% (157 events / 5 years = 3,140%). Figure

14 Potential Extent of Damage May 18, 2012 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] Out of a total of 157 damaging tornadoes that occurred in counties where Associated has assets, three resulted in damage to AECI infrastructure. This indicates a 1.9 percent probability that any given tornadic occurrence would produce damage to AECI assets (3 events / 157 occurrences = 1.9%). Table 1.7 provides a summary of tornado event dates that resulted in damage to AECI assets. The table includes EF-scale ratings and damage cost estimates. Table 1.7 Associated Tornadic Event Summary Date of event EF Scale rating County-wide Damage Associated Damage Estimates Claim to FEMA 4/2/06 F3 $60,000,000 (Pemiscot) $6,713, /7/08 F2-F3 $8,100,000 (Laclede) $110,000 (Phelps) $315, /19/11 Not available Not Available $25, Based upon the last twenty years of historical event records, the average tornado with the potential to affect the cooperative will include an EF0-EF1 rating, causing an average damage cost of $2,351,746 per event ($7,055,238 / 3 events = $2,351,746). This averaged amount accounts for less than 1% of Associated s total overhead assets and building valuation ($2,351,746 / $5,527,614,980 = %). Table 1.8 demonstrates the probability of occurrence in conjunction with the potential extent of damage. Table 1.8 Probability of Hazard Occurrence Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Tornado Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any Near 100% probability in any Less than 10% of damage to system 10-25% damage of system 26-50% damage of system More than 50% damage of system When compared with the total number of G & Ts (six) served by Associated, and taking into consideration that each tornado event only affected one of the G & Ts, it can be projected that 17 percent of all customers may report outages during any given tornadic event. Table 1.9 demonstrates the probability of occurrence in conjunction with the potential extent of impact upon local customers. 2-14

15 Potential Extent of Impact [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] May 18, 2012 Table 1.9 Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Tornado Less than 10% of customers report outages 10-25% of customers report outages 26-50% of customers report outages More than 50% of customers report outages Probability of Damage-causing Hazard Occurrence Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any > Near 100% probability in any Severe Thunderstorms, High Wind, and Hail From , within the 39 counties where Associated has assets, the state of Missouri has experienced a total 1,679 hail events and 1,344 thunderstorm/ high wind events. Therefore, the probability of a hail event in the Associated service area in any is near to 100% (1,679 events / 5 years = 33,580%). The probability of a thunderstorm/ high wind event in any is also near 100% (1,143 events / 5 years = 22,860%). Estimated material damages for these events were compiled by Associated staff. Of the reported 1,679 hail events that occurred over the past five years, none resulted in damage to Associated assets, resulting in a less than 1% probability of damage from hail to the AECI system. Due to the type of infrastructure owned by Associated, hail is generally not considered a significant threat. Based upon historical records, the average hail event to affect the cooperative will cause little or no damage, resulting in less than 1% of Associated total asset valuation. Table 1.10 provides the same information for thunderstorm/high wind events. Of the 1,344 thunderstorm/high wind events that occurred over the past five years, AECI had one storm that caused damage to 345 kv lines in Dallas and Reynolds counties. This results in a less than 1 percent probability that any given thunderstorm/high wind occurrence will produce damage (1 / 1,344 = %). Table 1.10 Associated Thunderstorm/High Wind Event Summary Event date Damage estimates Outages reported 5/8/09 5/16/09 $136, G & T affected Data provided based on internal Associated records which reflect cost from the referenced event year. Based upon historical records, very few thunderstorm/high wind events will cause damage to Associated s assets - one event in the last five years. If damage occurs due to a 2-15

16 Potential Extent of Impact Potential Extent of Damage May 18, 2012 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] thunderstorm/high wind event, it will cause an average damage cost of $136,125 ($136,125/1 = $136,125). This averaged amount accounts for less than 1 percent of Associated s overhead asset valuation ($136,125 / $654,909,223 = %). Table 1.11 demonstrates the probability of occurrence in conjunction with the potential extent of damage for both hail and thunderstorm/high wind events. Table 1.11 Probability of Hazard Occurrence Associated electric Cooperative, Inc. Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Thunderstorm/High Wind/Hail Less than 10% of damage to system 10-25% damage of system Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any Near 100% probability in any 26-50% damage of system More than 50% damage of system One G & T reported outages during recorded hail, thunderstorm, and high wind events since When compared with the total number of customers served by Associated, it can be projected that 17 percent of all customers may report outages during any given hail, thunderstorm, or high wind event. Table 1.12 demonstrates the probability of occurrence in conjunction with the potential extent of impact upon local customers. Table 1.12 Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Thunderstorm/High Wind/Hail Less than 10% of customers report outages 10-25% of customers report outages 26-50% of customers report outages More than 50% of customers report outages Probability of Damage-causing Hazard Occurrence Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any > Near 100% probability in any 2-16

17 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] May 18, 2012 Flood and Levee Failure Flood and levee failure carry, perhaps, the greatest ongoing potential threat to the existing infrastructure of the Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. Of the 39 counties where Associated has infrastructure located, several have extensive 100 year floodplain areas, particularly in the Bootheel region of the state where Associated has infrastructure located in New Madrid, Stoddard, Butler and Pemiscott counties. Figure 5 depicts the 100 year floodplain in relation to the cooperative s service area boundaries. Currently, inundation data for levee failure is lacking due to issues surrounding mapping, appropriate models, and its close association with flooding events. Figure 6 provides the location of known state and federal levees within the cooperative s service boundaries. Since 2006, there have been 123 flooding events and Associated has had two flood related FEMA claims in the past five years. Currently, no data concerning levee failure damage can be separated from flood damage data. Therefore, the probability of a flood/levee failure event affecting the cooperative assets in any is near 100% (123 events / 5 years = 2,460%). Estimated material damages associated with each of these events were compiled by Associated staff. Table 1.13 summarizes flood event dates by month, damage cost estimates, and reported outages. Two of the 123 occurrences caused damage to cooperative assets, resulting in a 1.6% probability that any given flood occurrence will produce damage. (2 / 123 = 1.6%). Table 1.13 Associated Flood Event Summary Event date Damage estimates Outages reported June 2008 $834, No outages April 2011 $704, No outages Data provided based on internal Associated records which reflect data from the referenced event year. 2-17

18 May 18, 2012 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] Figure

19 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] May 18, 2012 Figure

20 Potential Extent of Impact Potential Extent of Damage May 18, 2012 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] Flood and levee failure events vary widely based upon numerous factors including, but not limited to, annual precipitation and extent of levee damage. Based upon historical records, the average flood/levee failure event to affect Associated will cause an average damage cost of $769,599 ($1,539,199 / 2 events = $769,599). This averaged amount accounts for less than 1% of Associated s overhead, substation, buildings and power generation assets valuation ($769,599 / $5,527,614,980 = 0.014%). Table 1.14 demonstrates the probability of occurrence in conjunction with the potential extent of damage. Table 1.14 Probability of Hazard Occurrence Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Flood Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any 10-99% chance in any >Near 100% probability in any Less than 10% of damage to system 10-25% damage of system 26-50% damage of system More than 50% damage of system Because Associated was able to use mitigation measures to address flooding problems at its power generation facilities, no outages have occurred due to flooding events. An average of zero customers reported outages during recorded flooding events since When compared with the total number of customers served by Associated, it can be projected that less than 1 percent of all customers may report outages during any given flooding event. Table 1.15 demonstrates the probability of occurrence in conjunction with the potent extent of impact upon local customers. Table 1.15 Associated electric Cooperative, Inc. Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Flood Less than 10% of customers report outages 10-25% of customers report outages 26-50% of customers report outages More than 50% of customers report outages Probability of Damage-causing Hazard Occurrence Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any > Near 100% probability in any 2-20

21 Potential Extent of Damage [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] May 18, 2012 Severe Winter Weather From , the Missouri counties where Associated has infrastructure assets experienced a total of 445 severe winter weather events, including significant snowfall and ice storms. Therefore, the probability of a severe winter weather event in the Associated service area in any is near 100 percent (445 events / 5 years = 8,900%). Estimated material damages associated with each of these events were compiled by Associated staff, but damage estimates are available from only, with information being pulled from FEMA claim records. Table 1.16 provides a summary of event dates, types, affected assets, Associated damage estimates, and reported outages. One of those 445 storms caused damage to Associated s assets, resulting in a.2 percent probability that any given severe winter weather occurrence will produce damage. (1 / 445 = 0.22%). Table 1.16 Associated Severe Winter Weather Event Summary Event date Event Damage estimates Outages reported type 1/22/09 1/26/09 Ice storm $17,592, G & Ts affected Data provided based on internal Associated records which reflect cost from the referenced event year. Based upon these historical records, the average severe winter weather event to affect the cooperative will cause an average damage cost of $17,592,265 ($17,592,265 / 1 = $17,592,265). This averaged amount accounts for less than one percent of Associated s total asset valuation. ($17,592,265 / 5,527,614,980 = 0.31%). Based on this historical data, it can be extrapolated that although Associated s assets are vulnerable to severe winter weather, few storms will be severe enough to cause significant damage to the system. However, when damage does occur, it will likely be substantial and costly. Table 1.17 demonstrates the probability of occurrence in conjunction with the potential extent of damage. Table 1.17 Probability of Hazard Occurrence Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Severe Winter Weather Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any Near 100% probability in any Less than 10% of damage to system 10-25% damage of system 26-50% damage of system More than 50% damage of system An average of two of the six G & Ts reported outages during recorded severe winter weather events since When compared with the total number of customers served by Associated, it can be projected that 33 percent of G & Ts (two) may report outages 2-21

22 Potential Extent of Impact May 18, 2012 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] during any given severe winter weather event. Table 1.18 demonstrates the probability of occurrence in conjunction with the potential extent of impact upon local customers. Table 1.18 Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Severe Winter Weather Less than 10% of customers report outages 10-25% of customers report outages 26-50% of customers report outages More than 50% of customers report outages Probability of Damage-causing Hazard Occurrence Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any > Near 100% probability in any Wildfire The incidence of wildfire in the Associated service area presents a unique risk assessment because it does occur with surprising frequency in the 39 counties where AECI has assets. Since January 2000, more than 10,000 wildfires have been reported in those 39 counties, an average of 26 events in each county per year. However, AECI has not had any property damage related to wildfire. In most cases, the events are small and affect only a few acres of land. Table 1.19 summarizes the incidences of wildfire within these counties. Therefore, the probability of a wildfire event in the Associated service area in any is near 100% (10,853 events / 11 years = 98,663%). So, for the purposes of this assessment, wildfire and it s associated impacts cannot be eliminated from the realm of possibility Table 1.19 Wildfire summary by county Average # of Annual # County Wildfires, of Wildfires Average Annual Acres Burned Total Acres Burned Andrew Atchison Audrain Barry , Boone Butler , Callaway Carter Dade , Dallas ,055 2,011 0 DeKalb , Dent , Dunklin Gasconade Total Buildings Damaged

23 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] May 18, 2012 Table 1.19 Wildfire summary by county Average # of Annual # County Wildfires, of Wildfires Average Annual Acres Burned Total Acres Burned Gentry , Greene Holt Jasper , Jefferson Johnson , Laclede , ,356 6 Lawrence , Marion McDonald Moniteau New Madrid Newton , Nodaway , Oregon , Osage Pemiscot Phelps , Polk Pulaski Randolph , Reynolds , ,851 2 Ripley St. Charles Stoddard , Totals 5,587 1, , , Source: Missouri State Hazard Mitigation Plan, 2010 Total Buildings Damaged The potential extent of damage caused by wildfire is difficult to determine. Like earthquakes and dam failure, wildfires have had no measurable impact upon the Associated service area. To date, 5,587 fires have burned a total of 66, acres, for an average of acres affected per event. Associated sustained no damage related to wildfires in its service area during this time period. With an average of 10 acres per fire in the service area, it is unlikely that infrastructure damage would exceed five percent based upon asset location and unlikeliness of an uncontrollable wildfire. This initial assessment assumes a limited impact upon electric distribution infrastructure of less than 10 percent (Table 1.20). Further study will be required to create a model for damage assessments related to wildfire. 2-23

24 Potential Extent of Impact Potential Extent of Damage May 18, 2012 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] Table 1.20 Probability of Hazard Occurrence Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Wildfire Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any Near 100% probability in any Less than 10% of damage to system 10-25% damage of system 26-50% damage of system More than 50% damage of system No G & Ts have reported outages during recorded wildfires between 2004 and When compared with the total number of customers served by Associated, it can be projected that less than 1 percent of all G & Ts may report outages during any given wildfire event. Table 1.21 demonstrates the probability of occurrence in conjunction with the potential extent of impact upon local customers. Table 1.21 Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Wildfire Less than 10% of customers report outages 10-25% of customers report outages 26-50% of customers report outages More than 50% of customers report outages Probability of Damage-causing Hazard Occurrence Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any > Near 100% probability in any 2-24

25 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] May 18, 2012 B. Non-historical Hazards Earthquakes As Associated has facilities in 39 counties scattered throughout Missouri, these assets are vulnerable to multiple earthquake threats. In the northwest part of the state, where Associated has both a power plant and wind farm, as well as substations and overhead lines, the closest source of earthquake risk is the NeMaha Fault. This fault line runs roughly from Oklahoma City, Oklahoma north to Lincoln, Nebraska. In 1993, the NeMaha Fault produced a discernable earthquake that was felt in the region, rating a 2.9 on the Richter Scale of Earthquake Intensity. Additional quakes took place February 11, 1995 (3.1 rating); July 16, 2004 (3.5 rating); March 23, 2003 (3.1 rating). More recently, an earthquake rating 3.6 was recorded on December 17, Although a relatively quiet fault system, the NeMaha Fault has the potential to produce a damaging earthquake, which could impact the Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. Considered a greater risk, Associated s assets are also subject to effects of the New Madrid Fault located in extreme southeast Missouri. According to many experts, the New Madrid Fault has the potential to produce the largest earthquakes in North America. Undoubtedly, this fault has the potential to affect the Associated service area in its entirety. However, of greater concern are the sizeable power generating assets that AECI has located in close proximity to the New Madrid Fault. Three power plants are located in the Bootheel region Essex, St. Francis and New Madrid. Other seismic zones that affect the state include the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone and the South Central Illinois Seismic Zone. The Wabash and Illinois seismic zones are not as active as the New Madrid Seismic Zone, but they are considered capable of producing earthquakes in the range of M 6.0 to 6.8. They would likely have a greater impact on the St. Louis metropolitan area than an event occurring on the New Madrid Fault. In addition to these two faults, there have been several small, virtually undetectable earth movements in Missouri in recent history, which may or may not be attributed to the aforementioned fault lines or other, very small faults located nearby (Data derived from the Missouri State Hazard Mitigation Plan, 2010). C.E.R.I. records demonstrate that the NeMaha fault would most likely have limited impact on Associated s assets, with no quakes to date exceeding a 5.5 magnitude. Its cascading effects have been largely restricted to more localized regions, but even then the damage caused has been minimal. By contrast, the New Madrid fault has the potential to cause damage throughout much of the state of Missouri, including the Associated service area. Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Center for Earthquake Research and Information (CERI) at the University of Memphis have estimated the probability of a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake from the New Madrid Fault is percent through the year The probability of an earthquake increases with each passing day. 2-25

26 May 18, 2012 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] The projected earthquake intensity ratings change based upon the Modified Mercalli Scale. As Associated has assets located in 39 counties, the following table 1.22 has been developed to illustrate the varying levels of damage in each county that can be expected from a 7.6 magnitude earthquake occurring on the New Madrid Fault. The statewide ranking by loss ratio represents building and income losses due to the earthquake and are an indicator of the economic impacts an earthquake could have and how difficult it could be for a county to recover from the event. Several of the counties where Associated has assets are included in the top 10. (Data derived from the Missouri State Hazard Mitigation Plan, 2010.) Table 1.22 Magnitude 7.6 New Madrid Earthquake Impact on AECI Assets By County County Modified Mercalli Intensity Statewide Ranking by Loss Ratio County Modified Mercalli Intensity Andrew VI 110 Laclede VI 41 Atchison VI 109 Lawrence VI 61 Audrain VII 57 Marion VIII 65 Barry VI 53 McDonald V 68 Boone VII 62 Moniteau VI 60 Butler VIII 9 New Madrid X 1 Callaway VII 49 Newton VI 73 Carter VII 10 Nodaway VI 113 Dade VI 64 Oregon VII 18 Dallas VI 52 Osage VII 42 DeKalb VI 107 Pemiscot X 2 Dent VI 25 Phelps VI 31 Dunklin IX 5 Polk VI 55 Gasconade VI 36 Pulaski VI 34 Gentry VI 112 Randolph VII 74 Greene VI 51 Reynolds VII 17 Holt VI 108 Ripley VII 14 Jasper VI 78 St. Charles VII 32 Jefferson VII 24 Stoddard IX 6 Johnson VI 82 Source: Missouri State Hazard Mitigation Plan, 2010 Statewide Ranking Loss Ratio by As is evidenced in Table 1.22, the damage from an earthquake would vary widely across the Associated system. Assets located in the southeast part of the state could have significant damage, while those located in less vulnerable areas would likely suffer little or no damage. Power lines overhead and underground could become disconnected or severed, and transformers and power generation facilities could be damaged. Though the probability of occurrence is very small, the potential extent of damage could significantly impact both the cooperative and its customers. As demonstrated in Table 1.23, there is a wide variety of associated impacts for the AECI service area could range from less than 10% damage to more than 50% depending upon location. 2-26

27 Potential Extent of Impact Potential Extent of Damage [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] May 18, 2012 Table 1.23 Probability of Hazard Occurrence Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Earthquake Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any Near 100% probability in any Less than 10% of damage Level VI to system 10-25% damage of system Level VII- VIII 26-50% damage of system Level VIII IX More than 50% damage of Level X system Based upon information from CERI, FEMA, and SEMA and using the standardized scale for Missouri REC s, it may be estimated that %, or one to three G&Ts, could report outages related to an earthquake event of 7.6 magnitude. M & A Electric would be the most heavily impacted. Like the previous table, Table 1.24 demonstrates the probability of occurrence in conjunction with the potential extent of impact upon local customers based upon location and associated level impacts. Table 1.24 Associated electric Cooperative, Inc. Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Earthquake Less than 10% of customers report outages 10-25% of customers report outages 26-50% of customers report outages More than 50% of customers report outages Probability of Damage-causing Hazard Occurrence Less than 1% in any Level VI Level VII VIII Level VIII IX Level X 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any > Near 100% probability in any 2-27

28 Dam Failure May 18, 2012 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] Like earthquakes, dam failures have had no measurable impact upon the Associated service area to date. According to Missouri DNR s Dam Safety Division, and documented in the Missouri State Hazard Mitigation Plan, there are over 5,000 known dams across the state and 679 dams that fall under state regulation. These are non-federal dams that are more than 35 feet in height. Based on the guidelines provided by the National Inventory of Dams (NID), these regulated dams can be broken down into three categories: High hazard, Significant hazard and Low hazard. Of the 39 counties where Associated has assets, 16 have high hazard dams; 16 have significant hazard dams; and 17 counties have low hazard dams. Table 1.25 provides dam data by county of number and type of dam. Associated owns the dam at the Thomas Hill Reservoir which provides water to cool the Thomas Hill Energy Center. This dam is located in Randolph County and is regulated by both state and federal agencies. Should a dam failure occur at the Thomas Hill Reservoir, it could have a catastrophic affect on that power generation facility and result in its shut down. AECI also has waste ash ponds at its coal fired plants. With the exception of Thomas Hill, none of Associated s other assets are in areas where dam failure would result in damage to or service interruption of service at its own facilities. Figure 7 shows the locations of all known dams located within Associated s service area. 2-28

29 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] May 18, 2012 Figure

30 Potential Extent of Damage May 18, 2012 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] Table 1.25 Number and Classification of Regulated Dams by County County # of # of # of Low County # of High # of # of High Hazard Dams Significant Hazard Dams Hazard Dams Hazard Dams Significant Hazard Dams Low Hazard Dams Andrew McDonald Atchison Moniteau Boone Newton Callaway Nodaway DeKalb Osage Dent Phelps Gasconade Polk Gentry Randolph Greene Reynolds Jefferson Ripley Johnson St. Charles Laclede TOTALS Twenty-six dam failures have occurred within the state of Missouri over the past 100 years. However, no such event has occurred near the cooperative s assets. However, for the purposes of this assessment, dam failure and its Associated impacts cannot be eliminated from the realm of possibility. In order to allow for a risk assessment, the probability of this event has been included as less than one percent. Determining the potential extent of dam failure is currently impossible due to a lack of data concerning inundation zones. Further study concerning existing dams and their impact is required to make a more comprehensive assessment of potential damages. This initial assessment assumes a limited impact upon infrastructure of less than one percent, but if dam failure occurred at the Thomas Hill Energy Center, there could be power outages until alternative power sources could be brought on line. (Tables 1.26 and 1.27). Table 1.26 Probability of Hazard Occurrence Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Dam Failure Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any Near 100% probability in any Less than 10% of damage to system 10-25% damage of system 26-50% damage of system More than 50% damage of system 2-30

31 Potential Extent of Impact [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] May 18, 2012 Table 1.27 Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Dam Failure Less than 10% of customers report outages 10-25% of customers report outages 26-50% of customers report outages More than 50% of customers report outages Probability of Damage-causing Hazard Occurrence Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any > Near 100% probability in any Drought Although drought is not considered a hazard for most electric cooperatives, Associated is unique in that it owns and operates power generation facilities that rely upon natural sources of water for cooling purposes. If water levels dropped below the level of in-take pipes, it would affect the coop s ability to generate power. All of Associated s power generation facilities could be affected by long, sustained drought events. Fortunately, this has never occurred and so drought is considered a non-historical hazard, but Associated has taken mitigation measures in case severe drought should ever occur in any of the six counties where Associated has power generation facilities. Associated has the ability to pump water into the power generation facilities with mobile pumps if water levels ever fall below the level of in-take pipes. Missouri's average annual rainfall ranges from about 34 inches in the northwest to about 48 inches in the southeast. Even the driest areas of Missouri have enviable rainfall, compared to most western states. But lack of rainfall impacts certain parts of the state more than others because of alternate sources and usage patterns. Most of the southern portions of Missouri are less susceptible to problems caused by prolonged periods of nonrain, since there are abundant groundwater resources. Determining the potential extent of drought is currently impossible due to a lack of historical data. Further study concerning long-term drought and its impact on power generation is required to make a more comprehensive assessment of potential damage. Because drought is slow in its onset sometimes lasting for months or years, it is assumed that Associated would have adequate time to acquire and/or move portable pumping systems to address the problem before it reached critical status. This initial assessment assumes a limited impact upon infrastructure of less than one percent, and less than one percent of service interruption. (Tables 1.28 and 1.29). 2-31

32 Potential Extent of Impact Potential Extent of Damage May 18, 2012 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] Table 1.28 Probability of Hazard Occurrence Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Drought Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any Near 100% probability in any Less than 10% of damage to system 10-25% damage of system 26-50% damage of system More than 50% damage of system Table 1.29 Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Drought Less than 10% of customers report outages 10-25% of customers report outages 26-50% of customers report outages More than 50% of customers report outages Probability of Damage-causing Hazard Occurrence Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any > Near 100% probability in any Severe Land Subsidence / Sinkholes Land subsidence and sinkhole collapse are each potential hazards for the southern half of Missouri. A portion of AECI s service area includes regions which are susceptible to sinkholes by soil classification. Much of the southern half of Missouri has karst topography and areas conducive to the development of caves and potential sinkholes. Although there have not been any reported incidents of sinkholes collapsing and causing personal injury or damage to AECI property, it has occurred in Missouri. Determining the potential impact of land subsidence on Associated infrastructure is currently impossible due to a lack of historical data. Further study concerning land subsidence and its impact on power generation is required to make a more comprehensive assessment of potential damage. The fact that Associated does extensive engineering and environmental impact studies prior to construction of any facilities or infrastructure also reduces the potential threat of damage from land subsidence. If an incident of land subsidence occurred, it would be localized to a relatively small area which would further limit its impact on the cooperative. This initial assessment assumes a limited impact upon 2-32

33 Potential Extent of Impact Potential Extent of Damage [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] May 18, 2012 infrastructure of less than one percent, and less than one percent of service interruption. (Tables 1.30 and 1.31). Table 1.30 Probability of Hazard Occurrence Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Land Subsidence Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any Near 100% probability in any Less than 10% of damage to system 10-25% damage of system 26-50% damage of system More than 50% damage of system Table 1.31 Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Land Subsidence Less than 10% of customers report outages 10-25% of customers report outages 26-50% of customers report outages More than 50% of customers report outages Probability of Damage-causing Hazard Occurrence Less than 1% in any 1-10% chance in any given year 10-99% chance in any > Near 100% probability in any 2-33

34 May 18, 2012 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] Section 6: Mitigation strategies Previous efforts at mitigation For organizations like Associated, mitigation is considered to be part of prudent business operations. In order to ensure the delivery of a quality product and minimize service interruptions, a number of mitigation strategies are continually utilized. Routine maintenance and upgrades to existing equipment are completed as part of daily tasks. Vegetation management is utilized to limit the cascading effects of natural hazards. Safety and reporting information are disseminated to the public through various types of media. Mutual aid agreements and partnerships create relationships which provide for future support in the event of a natural disaster. Additionally, mitigation is considered prior to any expansion of service into special hazard areas. Before any transmission line is built, feasibility and environmental studies are conducted and risk is considered in the choice of right-of-way. This process, completed by the Line Superintendent and contracted engineers, identifies and addresses foreseeable hazards and safety issues before any new transmission lines are constructed. USDA-RUS specifications regarding operation and safety are utilized in every step of the process. Steps are taken to practically minimize the exposure of equipment to loss due to foreseeable hazards, particularly flooding. Existing and potential resources As stated above, mitigation is a key component of good business practices. Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. includes mitigation strategies as part of regular work activities to ensure service with minimal interruptions. Funding for these activities is provided through the cooperative s normal budgetary process for maintenance. In order to expand mitigation efforts beyond normal maintenance, it is likely that Associated will need to seek outside funding sources. These may include private, state, or federal programs which provide grant and loan funding. Upon passage of this plan, Associated will be eligible for funding through FEMA in the following categories: Hazard Mitigation Grant Program Flood Mitigation Assistance Program Pre-Disaster Mitigation Program 406 Stafford Act Development of goals, objectives, and actions Establishing mitigation goals, objectives, and actions for a business entity requires a slightly different approach than public agencies. Certainly, a number of similarities exist; both entities must consider which hazards most commonly occur and have the greatest potential for causing disruption to members or residents. They must also consider which types of actions will maximize benefits and minimize costs, how mitigation strategies 2-34

35 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] May 18, 2012 will be implemented, who will enforce implementation, and how the overall plan will be maintained and updated. The Associated mitigation planning committee, with assistance from MRPC staff, worked to identify goals, actions, and objectives which addressed hazard mitigation issues. The committee first identified ongoing mitigation strategies as well as potential strategies which seek to improve service and limit disruptions resulting from natural hazards. Action items were then analyzed for common characteristics and summarized to create eight objectives. Likewise, these eight objectives were grouped into similar categories and used as the basis for the four overarching goals. Table 1.28 provides a simple synopsis of the goals and objectives before prioritization. Traditionally, the STAPLEE (Social, Technical, Administrative, Political, Legal, Environmental, and Economic) method is used to prioritize mitigation actions. These categories, however, do not necessarily align with the private sector in the same way they are applicable to governmental agencies. A number of action items could be included with multiple goals and objectives, for example. As a result, the committee chose to use a different method to prioritize their mitigation strategy. Table 1.28 Identified Goals Goal 1: Protect the health and safety of the community. Goal 2: Reduce future losses due to natural hazard events. Goal 3: Improve emergency management capabilities and enhance partnerships. Goal 4: Continue to promote public awareness and education. Associated goals and objectives Identified Objectives Objective 1: Prevent injury, loss of life, and damage to property. Objective 2: Reduce outage time to member/owners. Objective 1: Protect and maintain existing infrastructure. Objective 2: Research and develop plans for future infrastructure improvements, seeking implementation where feasible. Objective 3: Research and develop plans for future communication and data collection improvements with plants and members where feasible. Objective 1: Improve assessment of outages and reduce response time. Objective 2: Create or maintain partnerships with intersystem and outside organizations. Objective 1: Provide media resources for member/owners to promote public education. After identifying ongoing and potential action items, the committee created three priority tiers: First tier actions focus on physical infrastructure protection and improvements which ensure continued, quality service and seek to reduce power outages. These types of actions are the highest priority of Associated. Second tier actions create and maintain working relationships to reduce and prevent the impact of power outages. These include improvements to safety and reporting information, mutual aid agreements, and other efforts which seek to expand and improve both customer service and disaster planning. 2-35

36 May 18, 2012 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] Third tier actions identify potential projects for other system improvements. These include mapping efforts, technological improvements, and research related to the expansion of mitigation efforts. Actions within each tier may be funded through regular budgetary methods or identified outside sources. Tables 1.29, 1.30, and 1.31 provide lists of action items by tier as well as the goals and objectives identified with each. Table 1.29 Prioritized Mitigation Actions for Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. Tier 1 Tier 1 Action item: Perform routine maintenance and utilize upgraded equipment where possible to ensure quality of system. Tasks may include part replacement and/or upgrades. Identified work includes, but is not limited to: Maintain earthen structures to mitigate effects of disasters tree removal, erosion control, adequate vegetation cover and upkeep of discharge structures at Thomas Hill or any other AECI locations. Painting of the outside structures, structural steel, tanks, dust collectors, etc. to minimize corrosion at Thomas Hill or any other AECI locations. Erosion control, culvert repair and cleaning to ensure adequate drainage around facilities at Thomas Hill or any other AECI locations. Plant inverter upgrades: install larger, modern units to accommodate increasing load demand at New Madrid or any other AECI locations as necessary. Insure that all lines are made visible to aircraft. Substation replacement at New Madrid and other locations as needed. Upgrade emergency generator: install larger emergency generator and associated equipment at New Madrid and at any other locations as needed on the black start path. Upgrade fire protection sprinkler system and seismic protection on New Madrid Unit 2 and at other AECI locations as needed. (Includes additional transverse sway braces to be installed on all feed and cross mains and branch lines 2 ½ or larger at maximum spacing of 40 feet; need to add restraining straps and C-clamps to meet requirements of NFPA 13.) 2-36 Goal/Objective Goal 1 / Objective 1 Goal 1 / Objective 2 Goal 2 / Objective 1 Goal 2 / Objective 2 Timeframe for completion Ongoing effort. Dependent funding. Dependent additional funding on on Goal 1 / Objective 1 Dependent on Goal 2 / Objective 1 additional funding. Goal 2 / Objective 1 Dependent on additional funding. Goal 1 / Objective 2 Goal 2 / Objective 2 Dependent additional funding. on Cost-benefit score Low cost High benefit Score: 9 High cost High Benefit Score: 7 Low cost High Benefit Score: 9 Low Cost Medium Benefit Score: 6

37 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] May 18, 2012 Table 1.29 Prioritized Mitigation Actions for Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. Tier 1 (cont.) Tier 1 Action item: Add or upgrade transformers as needed, including but not limited to the 345/161 kv transformer at Jasper (approximately 16 miles from Blackberry on Morgan line.) Build Jasper-Lamar 161 over 69 kv line approximately 12.5 miles (0.8 miles of the over-build is on the Jasper-Carthage 69 kv line. Add additional transformers as needed including but not limited to Huben, Enon, New Madrid and any other AECI locations. Start-up transformer (4 kv) crosstie: Install a tie between the unit standby busses at New Madrid or any other AECI locations as deemed necessary. Install a back-up power feed or emergency generator to the Rotary Car Dumper (RCD) to power lights, air compressors, fire protection, etc. at New Madrid or any other AECI locations as deemed necessary. Additional portable light plants at New Madrid or any other AECI locations as deemed necessary. Provide black start capability at Thomas Hill Energy Center and any other AECI locations Install 392 MVA 345/161 kv transformer at Barnett. Add 345 kv terminal at Franks Substation. Build Franks to Barnett 345 kv line (50 miles). Maintaining spare transformers and black start equipment at any AECI locations as deemed necessary. Goal/Objective Goal 1 / Objective 1 Goal 1 / Objective 2 Goal 2 / Objective 1 Goal 2 / Objective 2 Goal 1 / Objective 1 Goal 1 / Objective 2 Goal 2 / Objective 1 Goal 2 / Objective 2 Goal 1 / Objective 1 Goal 1 / Objective 2 Goal 2 / Objective 1 Goal 2 / Objective 2 Goal 1 / Objective 1 Goal 1 / Objective 2 Goal 2 / Objective 1 Goal 2 / Objective 2 Goal 1 / Objective 1 Goal 1 / Objective 2 Goal 2 / Objective 1 Goal 3 / Objective 1 Goal 1/Objective 1 Goal 1/Objective 2 Goal 2/Objective 1 Goals 3/Objective 1 Goall 1/Objective 1 Goal 1/Objective 2 Goal 2/Objective 1 Goals 3/Objective 1 Goal 1/Objective Goal 1/Objective 2 Goal 2/Objective 1 Goal 3/Objective 1 Goal 1/Objective 1 Goal 1/Objective 2 Goal 2/Objective 1 Goal 3/Objective 1 Goal 1/Objective 1 Goal 1/Objective 2 Goal 2/Objective 1 Goal 3 / Objective 1 Timeframe for completion Ongoing effort Dependent upon additional funding. Ongoing effort; Dependent upon additional funding. Ongoing effort Dependent upon additional funding Dependent upon additional funding Dependent upon additional funding Dependent upon additional funding Dependent upon additional funding. Dependent upon additional funding. Dependent upon additional funding. Ongoing effort Dependent upon additional funding Cost-benefit score High cost High benefit Score: 7 High cost High benefit Score: 7 Low cost High benefit Score: 9 Low cost Medium benefit Score: 6 Low cost Medium benefit Score: 6 High cost High benefit Score: 7 Medium cost High benefit Score: 8 Low cost High benefit Score: 9 Low cost High benefit Score: 7 High cost High benefit Score:

38 May 18, 2012 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] Table 1.30 Prioritized Mitigation Actions for Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. Tier 2 Tier 2 Action item: Provide safety and reporting information to member/owners and the general public through varying methods: Company website Social media sites Local newspapers Presentations Publications Increase number of generators owned for use in critical asset outages Develop and provide additional media resources and publications to member/ owners to assist with public education efforts Cooperate with local law enforcement and government officials to reduce the impact of power outages. Research methods for improving communications with facilities and member/owners. Goal/Objective Goal 1 / Objective 1 Goal 4 / Objective 1 Goal 1 / Objective 1 Goal 1 / Objective 2 Goal 2 / Objective 2 Goal 3 / Objective 2 Goal 4 / Objective 1 Goal 1 / Objective 1 Goal 3 / Objective 2 Timeframe completion Ongoing effort for Dependent upon additional funding. Dependent upon additional funding Ongoing effort. Goal 2 / Objective 3 Dependent upon additional funding Cost-benefit Score Low cost Medium benefit Score: 6 High cost Medium benefit Score: 4 Low cost Medium benefit Score: 6 Low cost High benefit Score: 9 Low cost Medium benefit Score: 6 Table 1.31 Prioritized Mitigation Actions for Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. Tier 3 Tier 3 Action item: Collect GPS data for all existing infrastructure. Utilize GIS technology to reduce site identification and response time. Monitor developments in data availability concerning the impact of levee failure, dam failure, tornados, sinkholes, and wildfire upon the Associated service area through local, state, and federal agencies. Goal/Objective Goal 2 / Objective 1 Goal 2 / Objective 3 Goal 3 / Objective 1 Goal 2 / Objective 2 Goal 2 / Objective 3 Goal 3 / Objective 1 Goal 1 / Objective 1 Goal 2 / Objective 1 Timeframe for completion Dependent upon additional funding. Dependent upon additional funding. Ongoing effort. Cost-benefit High cost High benefit Score: 7 Medium cost Medium benefit Score: 5 Low cost Low benefit Score:

39 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] May 18, 2012 Section 7: Plan Implementation and Maintenance Plan incorporation The goals, objectives, and actions of the previous section identify both ongoing efforts at mitigation and potential methods for expanding efforts. The plan has been reviewed and adopted by the Board of Directors as part of the company s operations policy. This mitigation plan necessitates involvement from every Associated employment level as the organization strives to ensure quality service to their customers. Other Local Planning Mechanisms Internal Planning Mechanisms exist in abundance at AECI. The information presented in the Hazard Mitigation Plan can be incorporated into and considered in the following planning and budget structures: 10-year Long Range Transmission Plan (updated every 2 years) Winter and Summer Peak Operating Study (annually) NERC/SERC Compliance Studies (ongoing) Electric Load Studies (bi-annually) Cost of Service Study (annually) Capital Budget (annually) 4-year Capital Budget / Work Plan Long-Range Generator 10-year Outage Plan (annually) Long Range (10-year) Forecasted Projects (LRFP annually) Integrated Resource Plan (annually with 20-year assessment) Computerized Maintenance Management Systems (scheduled preventative and predicative maintenance on equipment) Emergency Response Plan review (annually) Beyond the Associated Hazard Mitigation Plan and its internal mechanisms, few planning mechanisms exist at the local level. Most of the 39 Missouri counties where Associated has assets either have a FEMA-approved Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan in place, or are working on updating their plan. County emergency management directors have Local Emergency Operations Plans which seek to mitigate the same hazards for residents. These same counties are also included in the Regional Transportation Plans (RTP) for the Missouri Department of Transportation districts across the state, as well as the Comprehensive Economic Development Strategies (CEDS) developed by RPCs in those same regions. Associated s plan can be easily incorporated into these local plans and allow for coordination across agencies in the event of an emergency. The majority of Associated s service area is rural and made up of third-class counties which are prohibited from enforcing building codes and zoning by the state of Missouri. Comprehensive plans and Capital Improvement plans would not be applicable. 2-39

40 Plan Maintenance May 18, 2012 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] Associated will conform to the requirements established by the Association of Missouri Electric Cooperatives (AMEC) for monitoring, evaluating, and updating the plan. Continued Public Involvement Opportunities Associated will conform to the requirements established by the Association of Missouri Electric Cooperatives (AMEC) for continued public involvement. Opportunities for public comment will continue to be offered through notification to Associated s six G&T members, located throughout the state of Missouri, and at the physical office of Associated. 2-40

41 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] May 18, 2012 Chapter Appendix: Documentation of Participation Contents: 2-43 : 2-44 Meeting documentation 2-45 Public Comment letter 2-41

42 2-42 May 18, 2012 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.]

43 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.] May 18, 2012 Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. August 25, 2011 Hazard Mitigation Meeting Summary AECI representatives: Jeff Harrison, Teri Nelson, Rhonda Day, John Bussman, Randy Murdaugh, Chris Bolick, and Lacie Shook MRPC representative: Tammy Snodgrass Introductions were made and Ms. Snodgrass provided an overview of the planning project and the purpose and benefits of hazard mitigation planning. There were several questions regarding grant eligibility and the types of projects eligible for funding. Ms. Snodgrass asked for additional clarification on AECI s structure and relationship to other electric cooperatives across the state. A copy of the plan template was provided and discussed in depth. Because AECI is a power generator and provides power to the cooperatives and not directly to individual customers across the state, the template would have to be adjusted quite a bit to fit their organizational structure and needs. Ms Snodgrass requested data on: assets; power usage; damage estimates and outages; and current mitigation activities. A list of additional data required was developed for both parties. Rhonda Day indicated that she would be the point of contact and would work directly with Ms. Snodgrass. The group went through the template and legal council reviewed it and provided guidance on any confidentiality issues that they might have with plan content and how the data was managed. The group briefly reviewed the sample goals, objectives and action items in the document and stated that they preferred to work on those internally and provide those to MRPC at a later date. Some discussion occurred on potential mitigation projects and what on-going mitigation activities were already in place. The need for additional meetings was discussed and the AECI representatives decided to work on some of the planning issues in-house and if they needed MRPC staff to coordinate another face-to-face meeting, they would let Ms. Snodgrass know. Otherwise it was felt that most of the work could be completed by phone and via exchanges. 2-43

44 2-44 May 18, 2012 [ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.]