Utah s Big Three. Challenges and Opportunities Facing the Beehive State. Urban Land Institute November 5, 2015
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1 Utah s Big Three Challenges and Opportunities Facing the Beehive State Urban Land Institute November 5, 2015
2 Fastest Growing Economies Job Growth September August 2012 August 2013 U.S. average = 1.9% Utah 3.9% South Carolina 3.2% Idaho 3.1% Washington 3.1% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%
3 Labor Market Indicators September 2015 Unemployment rate Utah 3.6% U.S. 5.1% Utah # unemployed 53,400 Job Growth Rate (year-over) Utah 3.9% U.S. 1.9% Utah net new jobs 51,700 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
4 Utah Job Growth Percentage Change: September Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
5 Utah s Big Three 1. Salt Lake City International Airport 2. Rise of Utah Valley 3. When is the next recession?
6 Airport
7 Current Airport
8 Rebuilt Airport
9 Major Capital Events
10 Major Capital Events U N I V E R S I T Y of U T A H D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L of B U SI NE S S
11 Major Capital Events U N I V E R S I T Y of U T A H D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L of B U SI NE S S
12 Major Capital Events U N I V E R S I T Y of U T A H D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L of B U SI NE S S
13 Utah Valley
14 Fastest Growing Utah Metro Counties Job Growth September August 2012 August 2013 State average = 3.9% Utah Washington 6.5% 5.1% Davis 4.1% Cache Weber 3.8% 3.7% Salt Lake 3.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
15 Buildable Land Supply: 2012 Salt Lake County: 35,890 acres Less Land Utah County: 207,800 acres More Land Weber County: 33,980 acres Davis County: 13,660 acres Source: Fregonese and Associates; RCLCO
16 Recession Talk
17 Utah Job Growth Monthly Year-Over Percent Change 10.0% 8.0% Historical Average = 3.1% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% Jan-72 Jan-74 Jan-76 Jan-78 Jan-80 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan % -6.0% -8.0% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
18 Age is in the Eye of the Beholder Duration of U.S. expansions, mo Current 2001 to to 2001 Avg since 1945 Avg 1860 to Source: Moody s Analytics
19 U.S. Expansion is Aging Well Expansion Indonesia Canada Turkey U.S. U.K. Germany Recovery India Japan Spain Slowdown China South Africa Brazil Italy France Russia Recession Source: Moody s Analytics
20 GDP by Industry U.S. and Utah: % Percent of total 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 3.8% 4.3% 4.6% 3.7% 14.9% 12.5% 15.6% 16.4% 3.7% 4.8% 21.4% 19.7% % 12.0% 6.7% 8.3% 3.1% 3.7% 2.8% 2.2% 13.2% 12.5% 0% Utah United States Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
21 Utah Job Growth Monthly Year-Over Percent Change 6.0% Historical Average = 3.1% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan % -6.0% Utah s economy has been expanding for 62 consecutive months. -8.0% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
22 Hypothesis: Threshold Economy
23 Is the Utah Economy Breaking Through? Wells Fargo Regional rail National political leadership PAC12 Downtown grocery store Downtown housing Trader Joes Goldman Sachs Crate and Barrel Three million Utahns Delta Hub Real Salt Lake Adobe Entrepreneurial climate Olympic afterglow Jackie Biskupski Utah Jazz
24 We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. -Bill Gates
25
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