Global Helicopter Forecast
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- Allen Abner Alexander
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1 Global Helicopter Forecast
2 C&P untapped demand is rising Key world economies are still underequipped TOP 10 Countries in 2016 ( H/C fleet in service) U.S.A. Russia Canada Brazil Australia United Kingdom Italy Japan France Germany #11 China TOP 10 World economies in 2016 China U.S.A India Japan Germany Russia Indonesia France United Kingdom Brazil TOP 10 World economies in 2036 China India U.S.A. Indonesia Japan Turkey Germany Mexico Brazil Russia In the last 5 years Chinese fleet x 2.7 In 2016, with more than 100 bookings (all OEMs) China booked more helicopters than any other country 2 *Purchasing power parity
3 Helicopters address primary and secondary human needs Helicopters help Social development Economic development Public Services EMS Energy Commercial Private to protect populations to save lives to transport passengers to remote areas to build in remote areas to deploy rapidly to reach places that jets can t Make your life easier 3
4 All OEMs C&P helicopter business A global business volume of 370 Bn 20 year global turbine helicopter business volume ( ): 245 Bn 34% Spares & Components Bn % Value 66% Labor 90 Airframe & engine 125 H/c deliveries Customer service business accounting for an average of 65% of the total C&P market
5 Over the next 20 years, the C&P market will represent nearly 22,000 units Representing 125 Bn We expect ~ 22,000 new helicopters in all market segments by 2036 Light & Single engine Light & Medium Twin (< 7 tons) Super Medium & Heavy (> 7 tons) 50% (units) 17% (value) 35% (units) 45% (value) 15% (units) 38% (value) 5
6 Evolution of the C&P in-service fleet Expected to grow by almost 50% over the next 20 years 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 C&P helicopter fleet in service: st oil crisis nd oil crisis 1987 Black Monday Asia, Brazil, Argentina Russia % CAGR 2001 W.T.C Global recession % CAGR Forecast % CAGR % CAGR (Compound annual growth rate)
7 Demand driven by growth Significant part of today s helicopters will remain in service 20 years from now Fleet growth in units: ~37,000 Growth Replacement ~25,000 ~22,000 New 57% 43% Today ~15,000 Stay in service
8 New C&P helicopter deliveries Demand driven by North American replacement needs and new demand in Asia-Pacific region USA / Canada 23% ~5,000 ~4,000 Europe 18% World demand units Latin America ~2,000 Africa & Middle East 9% ~8,000 Asia/Pacific 36% ~3,000 14%
9 Key highlights Market demand for almost 22, 000 helicopters over the next 20 years supported by robust economic and social drivers Emerging regions will drive the global demand for growth while replacement needs will essentially come from mature regions Potential short/midterm increase in the case of faster deregulation and infrastructure implementation in emerging regions
10 SAFE HARBOUR STATEMENT Disclaimer This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Words such as anticipates, believes, estimates, expects, intends, plans, projects, may and similar expressions are used to identify these forward-looking statements. Examples of forward-looking statements include statements made about strategy, ramp-up and delivery schedules, introduction of new products and services and market expectations, as well as statements regarding future performance and outlook. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to future events and circumstances and there are many factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. THESE FACTORS INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO: Changes in general economic, political or market conditions, including the cyclical nature of some of Airbus businesses; Significant disruptions in air travel (including as a result of terrorist attacks); Currency exchange rate fluctuations, in particular between the Euro and the U.S. dollar; The successful execution of internal performance plans, including cost reduction and productivity efforts; Product performance risks, as well as programme development and management risks; Customer, supplier and subcontractor performance or contract negotiations, including financing issues; Competition and consolidation in the aerospace and defence industry; Significant collective bargaining labour disputes; The outcome of political and legal processes including the availability of government financing for certain programmes and the size of defence and space procurement budgets; Research and development costs in connection with new products; Legal, financial and governmental risks related to international transactions; Legal and investigatory proceedings and other economic, political and technological risks and uncertainties. Any forward-looking statement contained in this presentation speaks as of the date of this presentation. Airbus undertakes no obligation to publicly revise or update any forward-looking statements in light of new information, future events or otherwise. 10
11 Thank you
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