G20 Seminar on Employment Policies,

Transcription

1 G20 Seminar on Employment Policies, Phili Philippe Egger, E Paris, P i April A il 2011

2 Employment to Population Ratio Second Semester 2010 and 2009 (Base 2nd Semester 2007=100) TUR Better than 2007 and º Line BRA* IDN 102 2nd Se mester Worse than 2007 but better than 2009 GBR CAN RUS AUS FRA KOR MEX JPN ITA ARG* DEU USA ESP ZAF Worse than 2007 and nd Semester 2009 Note: Size of the bubbles represents the number of total employment. Data for Argentina and Brazil are urban. 2

3 Growth and Variation in Unemployment Rates ESP 2 Economic Contraction and Increase in Unemployment 1.5 Unem mployment Var riation 2010 (in pp) Linear Trend ITA GBR FRA USA JPN ZAF Economic growth and increase in unemployment 0 CAN DEU AUS RUS MEX KOR IDN ARG* BRA* Economic growth and decrease in unemployment TUR -2.5 Growth Rate 2010 (in %) Note: Size of the bubbles represents the number of unemployed persons. Labour data for Argentina and Brazil are urban. Data for Unemployment in 2010 correspond to the average of data available. Data for Growth is the annual forecast of the WEO 3

4 Growth cluster: expanding domestic and external demand; growth in labour-intensive sectors; rising real wages, including minimum wage; expanding social protection; structural challenges remain. Lacklustre growth cluster: low investment and business confidence; subdued domestic demand; low labour intensity of growth; shifts in sectoral activity it require time (construction); ti rising i long term unemployment; many structural challenges. 4

5 World GDP (1999 =100), working poor (US$ 2 a day) and wage employment as % of total employment World GDP working poor wage employment

6 6

7 Sources: OECD STAT Database, 2010; World Bank development Indicators,

8 Leaders agreed: To launch a framework that lays out the policies i and the way we act together th to generate strong, sustainable and balanced global growth. We need a durable recovery that creates the good jobs our people need. 8

9 Accelerate job creation to ensure a sustained recovery and future growth; Strengthen social protection systems and promote inclusive active labour market policies; Place employment and poverty alleviation at the centre of national and global economic strategies; Improve the quality of jobs for our people; Prepare our workforces for future challenges and opportunities. 9

10 Broad-based growth: strong, sustainable, balanced, strong middle of income distribution, very low to no poverty, Social protection, education and training, Investment, enterprise development, labour force participation, i equal employment, rising i productivity, it rights at opportunities work, collective bargaining, wage/productivity linkages 10

11 Employment/GDP < > 0.66 < 0.6 Japan, Turkey Germany, India, Indonesia, US Italy low wage Wage /product tivity China Australia, Brazil, France, Korea, Rep., South Africa, UK Canada > 1.5 Russia Argentina Mexico, Saudi Arabia high wage low employment high employment Sources: OECD STAT Database, 2010; World Bank development Indicators,

12 Active fiscal and monetary policies Real economy investments, including infrastructure and green economy Support to SMEs (credit, R&D, institutional) and sustainable enterprises Sectoral and regional investment and development policies Collective bargaining broadly aligning productivity and wages Minimum i wage policies i Hiring subsidies (targeted, temporary) Tax policies i favourable to employment Unemployment benefits Employment services Active inclusive labour market policies and programmes Skills development and training (see G20 Training i Strategy) School-to-employment transitions, including apprenticeships Extension of basic social protection Targeted employment programmes Fundamental principles i and rights at work and other relevant labour standards 12

13 Countries should give consideration, as appropriate, to the following: Building adequate social protection for all, drawing on a basic social protection floor including: access to health care, income security for the elderly l and persons with disabilities, child benefits and income security combined with public employment guarantee schemes for the unemployed and working poor A Global Jobs Pact, adopted by the International Labour Conference on 19 June

14 Lower Morbidity Poverty Child labour Income Volatility Precautionary savings Higher Consumption Employment of working age adults Productivity Gender equality School enrolment 14

15 latest year Source: ILO, 2010, World Social Security report 15

16 in seeking to maintain the link between social progress and economic growth, the guarantee of fundamental principles and rights at work is of particular significance in that it enables the persons concerned, to claim freely and on the basis of equality of opportunity, their fair share of the wealth which they have helped to generate, and to achieve fully their human potential; 16

17 Country Freedom of Association Elimination of forced labour Elimination of discrimination Abolition of child labour and collective bargaining and compulsory labour (employment and occupation) Convention Argentina Australia Brazil Canada China France Germany India Indonesia Italy Japan Korea, Rep. of Mexico Russian Fed. Saudi Arabia South Africa Spain Turkey United Kingdom United States Ratifications =

18 Policies to combat child labour; forced labour; discrimination in employment and occupation; Policies to promote full, freely chosen and productive employment; Policies and institutions to facilitate social dialogue and collective bargaining on wages, working time, occupational safety and health, social protection. ILO assistance to countries that seek to gradually, step by step, bring their legislation and practice in conformity with the principles i of fundamental conventions. 18

19 Source: ILO and United Nations 19

20 Employment and social protection policies are essentially a national responsibility Yet, in a globalized li economy, each country has an interest in seeing others achieve high levels of productive employment and social protection with rights at work (decent work) Employment and social protection policies and outcomes are a shared interest within a framework of strong, sustainable and balanced growth 20

21 Saudi Arabia China Germany Russia Japan Korea Argentina Indonesia Mexico United Kingdom Canada France Brazil India Italy United States Australia Turkey South Africa

22 Objective: G20 Employment and Labour Ministers inputs to G20 framework: Employment to working age population p ratio Unemployment (long term and youth unemployment) Earnings dispersion (D9/D1ratio; D9/D5 ratio) Unit labour costs (total economy, manufacturing) Others? 22

23 Build on April 2010 G20 Labour and Employment Ministers Recommendations Employment and social protection policies as central to the G20 framework for strong, sustainable and balanced growth to: Achieve a high level of productive employment Gradually expand coverage of social protection Gradually apply principles of 1998 ILO Declaration 23