Shifting Wealth: Economic and Social Challenges

Transcription

1 Mario Pezzini, Director, OECD Development Centre Shifting Wealth: Economic and Social Challenges A Regional Comparison UNESCAP February

2 I. Shifting Wealth II. Economic and social challenges III. Perspectives from Africa and Latin America

3 I. SHIFTING WEALTH

4 Shifting Wealth is reshaping the world economy The Three Speed World in the 1990s Source: Perspectives on Global Development 2010: Shifting Wealth, author s calculations based on World Bank Data 2009 Note: This map is for illustrative purposes and is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory covered by this map.

5 The Three Speed World in the 2000s Source: Perspectives on Global Development 2010: Shifting Wealth, author s calculations based on World Bank Data 2009 Note: This map is for illustrative purposes and is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory covered by this map.

6 Shifting weight of global economic activity is continuing % 70 Share of GDP in PPP terms Brazil China India Indonesia Russian Federation South Africa OECD Non OECD Source: Authors calculations based on World Bank (2014), World Development Indicators (database) catalog/world development indicators. 6

7 Changing the global geography of production China is the main driver, but other countries are also contributing World top 20 manufacturers, 2010 Country share in total world manufacturing value added 30 % Source: OECD (2013), Perspectives on Global Development Shifting up a Gear: Industrial Policies in a Changing World, OECD, Paris.

8 Shifting Wealth Shifting Partners: South-South Partnership Africa's emerging trading partners (average ) % of the Total Trade, Billion USD Top 15 destinations of Chinese FDI, Number of jobs created by Chinese FDI projects in the recipient country Africa's trade flows with it's emerging parteners (average ) % of the Total Turkey 4% Oth.EPs 23% China 44% Korea, Rep. 6% Brazil 7% India 16% Note: This map is for illustrative purposes and is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory covered by this map. Source: OECD (2013), Perspectives on Global Development Shifting up a Gear: Industrial Policies in a Changing World, OECD, Paris. OECD Development Centre, calculations based on UN COMTRADE (database), via

9 Shifting Partners: China is leading trade with Africa Billion USD Africa's Trade flows with selected partners (in Billion USD) EU27 China IND+BRA+K OR+TUR +RUS USA Intra-African

10 II. Economic and social challenges

11 Many upper middle-income countries are not on course of convergence % Average annual GDP growth needed from 2012 to 2050 to reach OECD per capita average in IRQ PLW SEN KEN CMR ZAR TON IDN LKA DZA TUNCOL DOM PER LCA ZAF UKR BRA GRD MEX THA TUR MYS ROM BGR HUN SYC RUS NGA VNM MDA GEO PAN BLR IND MNG ARM TKM KAZ BTN AGO CHN STP AZE 0.00 % Average annual GDP growth Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income High income Source: Authors calculations based on World Bank (2013), World Development Indicators (database) 11

12 Although increases in production and innovation capabilities have been made, many developing countries are still lacking behind OECD average Intensity in R&D investment and private sector contribution, 2009 Korea Japan Targeting resources to specific scientific and technological areas (new materials, biotechnology and clean energy vehicles; healthcare, etc.). R&D invesment (% of GDP), Singapore Germany United States OECD Average = 2.3 % France United Kingdom China Russian Federation Brazil India South Africa Argentina Morocco Costa Rica Malaysia Kenya Indonesia Thailand Pubic procurement for innovation (e.g. Brazil, China, India and South Africa) Attracting more knowledgeintensive FDI (e.g. Brazil, Costa Rica, Malaysia, Morocco) Promoting start ups (Brazil, Colombia, Peru) Promoting cluster development (e.g. Brazil, Chile, India) R&D investment financed by the private sector (%), 2009 Source: OECD (2013), Perspectives on Global Development Shifting up a Gear: Industrial Policies in a Changing World, OECD, Paris.

13 The rise of new middle classes & growing social challenges By 2030, 80% of the world s middle classes will be living in developing economies Note: «Middle classes»: People living between 10 and 100 USD PPP a day. Source: OECD Development Centre based on Kharas (2010).

14 A success story? A lower middle income country Average 5% annual growth rate since 1990 Nearly 100% primary enrolment in % health care coverage Prudent public debt management (42.8% of GDP in 2009) 3% fiscal deficit Inflation at approx. 3% in the 2000s

15 Tunisia Source: OECD/AfDB/UNECA (2010), African Economic Outlook.

16 Social norms and institutions: Drivers of gender inequality with huge impact on social and economic performances Discrimination against women by region Son Bias Restricted Resources and Civil Liberties Discriminatory Family Code Restricted Physical Integrity EAP ECA LAC MENA SA SSA Source: OECD Development Centre s Social Institutions and Gender Index (SIGI) 2012

17 III. Perspectives from Africa and Latin America

18 Africa 2/27/2015 La Banque africaine de développement aujourd'hui 18

19 External Financial Flows FDI is picking up Current USD, billion % 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% % GDP Remittances Official Development Assistance Portfolio investments Foreign direct investments % GDP Source: African Economic Outlook 2014, OECD Publishing 2014

20 While GDP is growing, jobs for the young population are not , Young (15-24) People, Million GDP, Billion (2005 PPP int. $) Youth Population Youth Employment GDP (right axis) Source: African Economic Outlook 2012, OECD Publishing

21 Africa could have made more of the resource boom 14% 12% 10% 8% Africa's share of global resource assets 6% 4% 10% 11% 11% 12% 9% 2% 5% 0% Mining Energy Agriculture Source: Authors' calculations based on data from World Bank (2012), The Changing Wealth of Nations, World Bank, Washington, DC. 21

22 For example: In mining: spending on exploration in Africa has remained below $5 per square kilometre; whereas in Canada, Australia and Latin America the average is $65 per square kilometre. 2/27/

23 Africa s share of trade in intermediate goods is small but growing Share of global intermediate imports % 2.2% OECD countries Non OECD countries African countries Source: African Economic Outlook 2014, OECD Publishing 2014

24 Latin America & the Caribbean 2/27/2015 La Banque africaine de développement aujourd'hui 24

25 The economic slowdown in Latin America continues GDP growth: Latin America and the Caribbean vs OECD (annual %) Source: OECD(2014), OECD Economic Outlook, Vol. 2014/1, OECD Publishing. CEPALSTAT and " Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2014 " (CEPAL, 2014) 25

26 Policies can make a difference for inequality Gini coefficients before and after taxes and transfers in Latin American countries Source: OCDE (2008a) for OECD countries excluding LAC, OECD (2008b) for Argentina, Brazil Colombia and Peru.

27 New resources for development Greater fiscal space in the 2000s vis-à-vis the 1990s Fiscal revenue to GDP ratio (%) Source: Authors calculations based on World Bank (2011).

28 Education: Enrolment rates increased But efforts are needed in pre-primary and tertiary education Enrolment rates by level of education (%), circa Panel A. Pre-primary and Primary Pre-primary (net rate, %) Primary (net rate, %) Panel B. Secondary and Tertiary Secondary (net rate, %) Tertiary (gross rate, %) Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) database. 28

29 Education: Latin America lags behind in terms of performance and equity High school student performance and equity (PISA 2012) Source: based on OCDE/PISA

30 Latin America particularly affected by skills deficit Percent of firms identifying an inadequately educated workforce as a major constraint Source: Enterprise Surveys (2012), World Bank, Washington DC. 27/02/

31 Regional Economic Outlooks- identifying economic and social challenges and suggesting innovative policy solutions to the region s policy makers LEO 2015: Education and Skills for Development 2009: Fiscal Policy for Development 2010: Migration for Development 2011: Middle Classes 2012: Transforming the State for Development 2013: SMEs Policies for Structural Change 2014: Logistics and Infrastructure for Development SAEO 2015 : Strengthening Institutional Capacity 2010: Transport Infrastructure and regional integration 2011/2: Green Growth 2013: Narrowing Developing Gaps 2014: Middle Income Trap AEO AEO 2015: Spatial Inclusion ( ) 2010: Public Resource Mobilisation & Aid 2011: Emerging Partners 2012: Promoting Youth Employment 2013: Structural Transformation & Natural Resources 2014: Global Value Chains and Africa s Industrialisation

32 THANK YOU Mario Pezzini, Director OECD Development Centre 2/27/