U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Markets Challenges
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1 U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Markets Challenges Jose Viñals Financial Counselor and Director, IMF CEMLA, October, 213
2 Recovery of the global economy continues 6. GDP Growth Projections (In percent) World Source: World Economic Outlook (WEO, October 213) Advanced Economies Emerging Market and Developing Economies 2!
3 with regional differences GDP Growth Projections (In percent) United States European Japan Developing Latin America Central and Union and Emerging and the Eastern Asia Caribbean Europe Advanced Economies Emerging Market and Developing Economies Source: World Economic Outlook (WEO, October 213) 3!
4 Key challenges for emerging markets: internal and external Emerging Markets - GDP Growth Projections (In percent) WEO Apr 213 WEO Oct Year U.S. Government Bond Yield Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 4!
5 Recent market turbulence: temporary or more to come? Bond Yield Equity Currency Volatilit (basis point) 8 4 (percent) Appreciation (percent) y Depreciation Japan Europe EM US Change since May 21, 213 to current Change since May 21, 213 to peak 5!
6 How will the U.S. monetary exit be? Smooth US 1-year Treasury Yield (percent) Bumpy Timing of recovery Gradual recovery 7 May 21 uncertain expected 6 Sep 17 Tapering has not Tapering smooth and tightening 5 9 th percentile even started, let alone tightening gradual 4 5 th percentile Unchartered Much already 3 territory priced in Volatile adjustment largely behind us 2 1 th percentile 1 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Fed doesn t control long-term rates Potentially destabilizing 6!
7 Potential impact on emerging markets Local currency yield tightening (Dec 8- Dec 12) (basis point) Yield External Factors Domestic Factors External conditions Quality of domestic fundamentals !
8 Volatility amplifiers in the U.S. monetary exit process Massive shift to fixed income (U.S., EM) Increased duration (U.S., EM) Structurally lower market liquidity (U.S., EM) Foreign investors have crowded in local markets (EM) Higher role of cross over investors (EM) 8!
9 Rising corporate leverage in emerging markets New issuance of corporate debt (billions of US dollar) Nonfinancial Corporate Balance Sheet Metrics 3 Ratio of Net Debt to Equity (percent) Asia Latin America 1 45 CEEMEA Sources: Bloomberg L.P.; and IMF staff calculations. Note: Computed as the median of all available firm data. CEEMEA - central and eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Firms with negative net debt were excluded. 9!
10 Recent mini-stress tests: currencies and bonds hit the most Change in Nominal Exchange Rate (LC/USD, in percent, - depreciation) Exchange Rate vs. Bond Yields Change (May 22 /Aug 3, 213) LTU CHL BGR ROM CHN KOR PHL RUS THA MYS POL MEX IND HUN PER ZAF COL BRA UKR IDN TUR Increase in 1-yr Govt Bond Yields (percentage points) 1!
11 Recent mini-stress tests: fundamentals matter Exchange Rates vs. Current Account Balance Exchange Rates vs. Inflation Rate Current Account Balance, 212 (in percent of GDP) BRA IND IDN RUS PHL MEX THA TUR ZAF COL CHL PER KAZ CHN HUN KOR POL ROM LTU BGR Inflation rate (average Jan-Aug 213, percent) IND BRA IDN TUR RUS ZAF KAZ ROM MEX PHL PER CHN MYS COL BGR CHL THA HUN LTU KOR POL UKR Change in Nominal Exchange Rate, Aug 3 to May 22, 213 (LC/USD, in percent, - depreciation) Change in Nominal Exchange Rate, Aug 3 to May 22, 213 (LC/USD, in percent, - depreciation) 11!
12 It takes two to tango Manage tapering and tightening (execute + US communicate) Prudential policies key for stability Emerging Markets Strengthen macro-financial policy frameworks and buffers Facilitate orderly market adjustment 12!
13 Specifically for emerging markets In preparation è strengthen fundamentals/keep them in check If serious tensions arise: Ø Allow exchange rates to adjust in line with fundamentals Ø Provide liquidity Ø Adjust macroeconomic policies Ø Prudential policies Ø Swap lines, IMF facilities 17!
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