Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies
|
|
|
- Lydia Lee
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies By Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Luis Felipe Cespedes, Alessandro Rebucci Bank of Canada and European Central Bank Conference Ottawa, 8 June 215
2 Motivation Booms and busts in the non-tradable sector, often fuelled by excessive credit expansion and overvalued exchange rates Surges and sudden reversals in cross-border capital flows Housing and global liquidity Housing: quintessential non-tradable asset/durable good Global liquidity: important determinant of international capital flows Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 3
3 Contribution New quarterly house price data set for 33 emerging markets from 199 to 212 New set of house price stylized facts Identify a global liquidity shock on house prices, and trace its impact on the macro-economy in both AEs and EMs using a panel VAR Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 4
4 Main results House price inflation tends to behave like consumption growth, equity prices behave more like GDP Relative to AEs, house price inflation in EMs is higher, more volatile, less persistent, less synchronized across countries; and more associated with external variables The impact of a global liquidity shock on consumption, house prices and the current account is much larger in EMs than in AEs Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 5
5 Literature review Global house price cycle [Andre (21); Hirata et al. (212); Igan and Loungani (212); Claessens et al. (212); Cesa-Bianchi (213)] House prices and capital flows [Laibson and Mollerstrom (21); Favilukis et al. (212); Adamet al. (212); Ferrero (212); Aizenman and Jinjarak (29); Gete (29); Sa et al. (214)] Global liquidity [Landau (213),Rey (213); Bruno and Shin (214); Cerutti et al. (214)] Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 6
6 Outline Data Stylized facts Global Liquidity Model Interpreting results Conclusions Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 7
7 Data Unbalanced panel of 57 time series with varying coverage from 199:Q1 212:Q4 Source: OECD, BIS, Dallas FED international house price databases National central banks, national statistical offices, and academic publications on housing markets Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 8
8 Data Unbalanced panel of 57 time series with varying coverage from 199:Q1 212:Q4 Source: OECD, BIS, Dallas FED international house price databases National central banks, national statistical offices, and academic publications on housing markets Value added Additional countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Czech Republic, India, Serbia, Taiwan, and Uruguay Historical data: China, Estonia, Hong Kong, Hungary, Indonesia, Lithuania, Malaysia, Philippines, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Thailand Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 8
9 Data Map: Advanced Economies (a) Advanced Economies AUS AUT BEL CAN DNK FIN FRA DEU GRC IRL ITA JPN LUX MLT NLD NZL NOR PRT ESP SWE CHE GBR USA ISL Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 9
10 Data Map: Emerging Economies (b) Emerging Economies ARG CHL COL HRV HKG KOR MYS SGP ZAF URY THA BGR IDN ISR PHL TWN SVN SRB UKR EST HUN LTU PER CHN CZE POL BRA IND LVA RUS SVK MEX MAR Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 1
11 EMs grow faster than AEs (a) Advanced Economies House Prices Equity Prices Consumption GDP Mean.4%.1%.5%.5% Median.5% 1.3%.6%.6% St. Dev. 1.9% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% Auto Corr Pairwise Corr (b) Emerging Markets House Prices Equity Prices Consumption GDP Mean.7%.5% 1.1%.9% Median.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% St. Dev. 4.8% 15.% 2.4% 2.1% Auto Corr Pairwise Corr Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 11
12 EMs are much more volatile than AEs (a) Advanced Economies House Prices Equity Prices Consumption GDP Mean.4%.1%.5%.5% Median.5% 1.3%.6%.6% St. Dev. 1.9% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% Auto Corr Pairwise Corr (b) Emerging Markets House Prices Equity Prices Consumption GDP Mean.7%.5% 1.1%.9% Median.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% St. Dev. 4.8% 15.% 2.4% 2.1% Auto Corr Pairwise Corr Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 12
13 House price inflation in EMs is less persistent than in AEs (a) Advanced Economies House Prices Equity Prices Consumption GDP Mean.4%.1%.5%.5% Median.5% 1.3%.6%.6% St. Dev. 1.9% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% Auto Corr Pairwise Corr (b) Emerging Markets House Prices Equity Prices Consumption GDP Mean.7%.5% 1.1%.9% Median.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% St. Dev. 4.8% 15.% 2.4% 2.1% Auto Corr Pairwise Corr Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 13
14 House price inflation largely country-specific (non tradability) (a) Advanced Economies House Prices Equity Prices Consumption GDP Mean.4%.1%.5%.5% Median.5% 1.3%.6%.6% St. Dev. 1.9% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% Auto Corr Pairwise Corr (b) Emerging Markets House Prices Equity Prices Consumption GDP Mean.7%.5% 1.1%.9% Median.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% St. Dev. 4.8% 15.% 2.4% 2.1% Auto Corr Pairwise Corr Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 14
15 House price inflation strongly pro-cyclical, leads the monetary policy cycle, some (weak) association with CA and RER in AEs (a) Advanced Economies.5 GDP.5 Consumption.5 CPI Cross border Bank Flows Equity Price.5 Short term Int. Rate.5 Real Eff. Exch. Rate Current Account / GDP Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 15
16 Similar patterns in EMs: weaker association with monetary cycle and RER; stronger association with CA (b) Emerging Economies.5 GDP.5 Consumption.5 CPI Cross border Bank Flows Equity Price.5 Short term Int. Rate.5 Real Eff. Exch. Rate Current Account / GDP Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 16
17 Global Liquidity: Definition Global liquidity (GL) defined as ease of funding in global financial markets by BIS Credit supply factors that affect the provision of cross-border credit by global banks Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 17
18 Global Liquidity: Data International cross border claims of BIS reporting banks vis a vis the banking sector Trillions US DOllars Constant prices (28:Q2 US Dollars) Growth rate (year on year) Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 18
19 Global Liquidity: Interpretation Literature typically distinguishes between global ( push ) factors for capital flows from country-specific ( pull ) factors We think of GL as a vector of push global credit supply shifters US monetary policy = US Interest rates, US M2 Global banks funding conditions = TED spread, Leverage, Yield curve slope Risk appetite and uncertainty = VIX Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 19
20 Global Liquidity: Linkages with the macroeconomy GL shifts the international supply of credit = Increased cross-border bank credit In a domestic (open) economy: Current account deteriorates Exchange rate appreciates House prices appreciate Consumption increases Interest rates response is theoretically ambiguous House prices and exchange rate appreciation can amplify the initial shock via the relaxation of (domestic or foreign) credit constraints Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 2
21 Model: Panel VAR for all countries (excluding the US) VAR model for country i includes GLOBAL LIQUIDITY REAL CONSUMPTION REAL HOUSE PRICE REAL SHORT-TERM INT. RATE REAL EFF. EXCH. RATE CURRENT ACC. / GDP System in log-levels, two lags, deterministic trends Mean group estimator = Dynamic panel data models with heterogenous slope coefficients Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 21
22 Identification: Global Liquidity Shock Challenge: disentangling push versus pull. Identification is achieved in two steps Aggregation: no individual country is large enough to affect total cross-border banking credit significantly within a given quarter Cholesky decomposition with GL ordered first External instruments approach [Stock and Watson (212) and Mertens and Ravn (213)]: no global common factor pulls in capital Use the drivers of GL as instruments Isolate the variation of the GL reduced-form residuals that are due only to supply push factors Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 22
23 In AEs, GL shock increases house prices, consumption, and affects external sector. Monetary policy tightened as a response (a) Advanced Economies Global Liquidity Consumption House Price Real Int. Rate Real Eff. Exch. Rate Current Account / GDP Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 23
24 In EMs, effects much larger. Transmission mechanism also possibly different (b) Emerging Economies Global Liquidity Consumption House Price Real Int. Rate Real Eff. Exch. Rate Current Account / GDP Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 24
25 Multipliers are sizable GL falls by 1 percent of world GDP (US$ 1 trillion, or about 1 percent from its current level of US$1-15 trillions) House price falls by 2/3 of a percentage point in AEs and more than 3% in EMs Consumption falls about.7% in AEs and more than 1.5% in EMs Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 25
26 Inspecting the transmission mechanism How can we explain the different response of AEs and EMs? Conjecture: global liquidity shock relaxes borrowing constraints through increased value of collateral (more so in EMs) House prices and exchange rates = frictions in domestic and international financial contracting A (crude) counterfactual exercise: close the channels associated with financial frictions and look at the counterfactual estimated impulse Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 26
27 HP channel affects consumption in AEs (a) Advanced Economies Global Liquidity Consumption House Price Real Int. Rate Real Eff. Exch. Rate Current Account / GDP Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 27
28 HP channel affects consumption in EMs, but also CA and RER (b) Emerging Economies 1 Global Liquidity Consumption.5 House Price Real Int. Rate Real Eff. Exch. Rate Current Account / GDP Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 28
29 Closing RER channel in AEs destabilizes consumption and HP (a) Advanced Economies Global Liquidity Consumption House Price Real Int. Rate Real Eff. Exch. Rate Current Account / GDP Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 29
30 Closing RER channel in EMs stabilizes consumption and HP (b) Emerging Economies 1 Global Liquidity Consumption.5 House Price Real Int. Rate Real Eff. Exch. Rate Current Account / GDP Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 3
31 Adding credit reduces the differences between AEs and EMs (a) Advanced Economies Consumption Credit House Price Real Int. Rate Real Eff. Exch. Rate Current Account / GDP Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 31
32 Credit response less persistent in EMs (b) Emerging Economies Consumption Credit House Price Real Int. Rate Real Eff. Exch. Rate Current Account / GDP Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 32
33 Closing house prices channel contains credit in both AEs and EMs Consumption (a) Advanced Economies Credit House Price Real Int. Rate Real Eff. Exch. Rate Current Account / GDP Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy
34 Similar impact also on external sector (b) Emerging Economies Consumption Credit House Price Real Int. Rate Real Eff. Exch. Rate Current Account / GDP Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 34
35 Closing exchange rate channel contains credit in both AEs and EMs Consumption (a) Advanced Economies Credit House Price Real Int. Rate Real Eff. Exch. Rate Current Account / GDP Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 35
36 Closing the exchange rate impact much more in EMs (b) Emerging Economies Consumption Credit House Price Real Int. Rate Real Eff. Exch. Rate Current Account / GDP Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 36
37 Conclusions Consumption and house prices in EMs respond strongly to liquidity conditions at the center (more than AEs) Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 37
38 Conclusions Consumption and house prices in EMs respond strongly to liquidity conditions at the center (more than AEs) The channel of transmission might be quite distinct, important role of the exchange rate for EMs Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 37
39 Conclusions Consumption and house prices in EMs respond strongly to liquidity conditions at the center (more than AEs) The channel of transmission might be quite distinct, important role of the exchange rate for EMs The Fed is about to turn its stance... but there is plenty of scope for using domestic policies Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 37
40 What happened in 1994? 2.5 House price inflation (5 year cross country moving average) Advanced economies Emerging economies Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes & Rebucci, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy 38
Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies
Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi 1 Luis F. Cespedes 2 Alessandro Rebucci 3 1 Bank of England & Centre for Macroeconomics
Capital Flows, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy. Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Market Economies
Capital Flows, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy Capital Flows, House Prices, and the Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Market Economies Alessandro Cesa Bianchi, Bank of England Luis Céspedes, U. Adolfo
The Challenge of Public Pension Reform in Advanced and Emerging Economies
The Challenge of Public Pension Reform in Advanced and Emerging Economies Mauricio Soto Fiscal Affairs Department International Monetary Fund January 212 The views expressed herein are those of the author
Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies
WP/15/23 Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Luis Felipe Cespedes, and Alessandro Rebucci 215 International Monetary
Overview of Presentation
Overview of Presentation Fiscal Outlook and Challenges How to Address Fiscal Challenges? 2 Fiscal Outlook and Challenges 3 While the fiscal drag is waning in AE, EMEs would need to start rebuilding buffers
The Challenge of Public Pension Reform
The Challenge of Public Pension Reform Baoping Shang Fiscal Affairs Department International Monetary Fund May 4, 212 This presentation represents the views of the author and should not be attributed to
OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2013
OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 213 CANADA HIGHLIGHTS Canada experienced a decline in business spending on R&D between 21 and 211, despite generous public support, mainly through tax incentives
Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth
Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth Vitor Gaspar Director, Fiscal Affairs Department International Monetary Fund Peterson Institute for International Economics June 3, 15 Background The study draws on an
2016 External Sector Report
216 External Sector Report Global Imbalances and Policy Challenges September, 216 o Evolution of Global Current Accounts and Exchange Rates Widening and reconfiguration of imbalances in 215 Drivers: Asymmetric
University of Pennsylvania & NBER. This paper reflects only the authors views, and not those of the IMF
An Anatomy of Credit Booms and their Demise Enrique G. Mendoza University of Pennsylvania & NBER Marco E. Terrones IMF This paper reflects only the authors views, and not those of the IMF Motivation and
Managing Public Wealth
Managing Public Wealth Jason Harris IMF Fiscal Monitor October 218 November 218 Managing Public Wealth Overview I. The Public Sector Balance Sheet II. Why Does it Matter? III. Policy Implications Risk
MINIMUM WAGES ACROSS OECD COUNTRIES: BACK TO THE FUTURE?
Paris, 20 October 2017 MINIMUM WAGES ACROSS OECD COUNTRIES: BACK TO THE FUTURE? Andrea Garnero Economist Employment, Labour and Social Affairs OECD A widespread (but heterogenous) wage setting institution
State Involvement and Economic Growth
State Involvement and Economic Growth (The Future of the European Economy: Over to the State, or to the Market?) 27th Economic Forum Krynica, Poland September 2017 Bas B. Bakker Senior Regional Resident
SERVICES TRADE, REGULATION AND GVCS
UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT MULTI-YEAR EXPERT MEETING ON TRADE, SERVICES AND DEVELOPMENT Geneva, 11 13 May 2015 SERVICES TRADE, REGULATION AND GVCS SESSION 2 Ms. Dorothée Rouzet
Emerging & Frontier Market Outlook
Emerging & Frontier Market Outlook Recovery, Rebalancing and Risk in an Uneven Global Environment DAVID STAPLES, MANAGING DIRECTOR, EMEA CORPORATE FINANCE MATT ROBINSON, ASSOCIATE MANAGING DIRECTOR, AFRICA
Chapter 6 Macroeconomic Data
Chapter 6 Macroeconomic Data Angel H. Aguiar and Betina V. Dimaranan 6.1 Uses of Macroeconomic Data During the Data Base construction process, macroeconomic data are used in various stages. The primary
A Virtuous Cycle in Local Currency Bond Markets?
A Virtuous Cycle in Local Currency Bond Markets? John D. Burger The Sellinger School, Loyola College in Maryland Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Francis E. Warnock Darden Business School, NBER, IIIS at
Nero Meeting: Alain de Serres OECD Economics Department. 21 June 2013
Nero Meeting: The structural reform agenda to boost longterm growth and its side-effects on nearterm activity and other objectives Alain de Serres OECD Economics Department 21 June 2013 Benchmarking exercise
RESILIENCE IN A TIME OF HIGH DEBT
RESILIENCE IN A TIME OF HIGH DEBT PRE-RELEASE OF THE SPECIAL CHAPTER OF THE OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK (To Be Released on 28th November at 11.00am CET) Paris, 23th November 2017 www.oecd.org/economy/economicoutlook.htm
Entrepreneurship at a Glance 2018 Highlights
Entrepreneurship at a Glance 218 Highlights OECD Entrepreneurship at a Glance Highlights 218 SDD 1 October 218 List of figures ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND BUSINESS STATISTICS DATABASES 218 UPDATE 2 1. New enterprise
Corrigendum. Page 41, Table 1.A1.1. Details of pension reforms, September 2013-September 2015 : Columns on Portugal should read as follows:
Pensions at a Glance: OECD and G Indicators DOI: http://dx.doi.org/.787/pension_glance-5-en ISBN 9789644636 (print) ISBN 97896444443 (PDF) OECD 5 Corrigendum Page 4, Table.A.. Details of pension reforms,
OECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. Will Soft Foundations and Financial Vulnerabilities Derail the Modest Recovery? Catherine L. Mann OECD Chief Economist
OECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Will Soft Foundations and Financial Vulnerabilities Derail the Modest Recovery? Presentation to LUISS 10 April 2017 Catherine L. Mann OECD Chief Economist Key messages Global
Chapter 6. Macroeconomic Data. Zekarias M. Hussein and Angel H. Aguiar Uses of Macroeconomic Data
Chapter 6 Macroeconomic Data Zekarias M. Hussein and Angel H. Aguiar This chapter provides an overview of the macroeconomic features of the 8 Data Base. We will first present how the macroeconomic data
Public Pension Spending Trends and Outlook in Emerging Europe. Benedict Clements Fiscal Affairs Department International Monetary Fund March 2013
Public Pension Spending Trends and Outlook in Emerging Europe Benedict Clements Fiscal Affairs Department International Monetary Fund March 13 Plan of Presentation I. Trends and drivers of public pension
Pensions at a Glance: Europe and Central Asia
Pensions at a Glance: Europe and Central Asia Edward Whitehouse Head of Pension-Policy Analysis Social Policy division OECD European Commission/ World Bank conference Reforming Pension Systems in Europe
Policy Forum: How to address Inequality and Poverty in South Africa 7 June 2011, Reserve Bank, Pretoria
Policy Forum: How to address Inequality and Poverty in South Africa 7 June 2011, Reserve Bank, Pretoria Growing Unequal? International trends in inequality and poverty Michael Förster OECD, Social Policy
OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF BRAZIL 2018
OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF BRAZIL 2018 Towards a more prosperous and inclusive Brazil Brasília, 28 February 2018 http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-brazil.htm @OECDeconomy @OECD The economy is
What is the economic outlook for OECD countries?
The outlook What is the economic outlook for OECD countries? Paul van den Noord Counselor to the Chief Economist The outlook Real GDP growth, in per cent.....9. -..9 Japan. -... Total OECD.... Brazil....
Promoting Industrialisation in SADC through Quality Infrastructure SADC Industrialisation Week 2017
Promoting Industrialisation in SADC through Quality Infrastructure SADC Industrialisation Week 2017 Iza Lejárraga, Head of Investment Policy Linkages Unit Directorate for Financial and Enterprise Affairs
Why is Japan s inward FDI so low?
Why is Japan s inward FDI so low? Jun Saito, Senior Research Fellow Japan Center for Economic Research August 8, 2017 Japan s low level of inward foreign direct investment stock In May, it was reported
ORIGINAL SIN AND DARK MATTER (STILL) MATTER: ASSET COMPOSITION AND SOLVENCY. Ricardo Hausmann Harvard University & Santa Fe Institute
ORIGINAL SIN AND DARK MATTER (STILL) MATTER: ASSET COMPOSITION AND SOLVENCY Ricardo Hausmann Harvard University & Santa Fe Institute Why do we care about deficits? Because deficits determine the evolution
FDI drops 18% in 2017 as corporate restructurings decline
FDI IN FIGURES April 2018 FDI drops 18% in 2017 as corporate restructurings decline Global FDI flows decreased by 18% to USD 1 411 billion in 2017 compared to 2016. In the fourth quarter of 2017, FDI flows
EFFECTS OF NEW US AUTO TARIFFS ON GERMAN EXPORTS, AND ON INDUSTRY VALUE ADDED AROUND THE WORLD
1 ifo Institute ifo Center for International Economics Gabriel Felbermayr & Marina Steininger Feb 15, 2019 EFFECTS OF NEW US AUTO TARIFFS ON GERMAN EXPORTS, AND ON INDUSTRY VALUE ADDED AROUND THE WORLD
International Credit Supply Shocks 9
International Credit Supply Shocks 9 Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi Andrea Ferrero Alessandro Rebucci October 16, 217 Abstract House prices and exchange rates can potentially amplify the expansionary effect of
Income support for older persons in the Republic of Korea : a perspective of older persons
ESCAP Regional Consultation Incheon, Republic of Korea Income support for older persons in the Republic of Korea : a perspective of older persons Soo-Wan Kim (Kangnam University) 1 I. Introduction This
38th meeting of the EU-Turkey Joint Consultative Committee (JCC)
tepav The Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey 38th meeting of the EU-Turkey Joint Consultative Committee (JCC) SMEs-Trade development and investment environment opportunities between the EU and
Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide
Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide Atif Mian, Amir Sufi, and Emil Verner Princeton University, University of Chicago, and Princeton University IMF Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference November
THE BENEFITS OF EXPANDING THE ROLE OF WOMEN AND YOUTH IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES
G7 International Forum for Empowering Women and Youth in the Agriculture and Food Systems THE BENEFITS OF EXPANDING THE ROLE OF WOMEN AND YOUTH IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES Randall S. Jones Head, Japan/Korea
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES INTERNATIONAL CREDIT SUPPLY SHOCKS. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi Andrea Ferrero Alessandro Rebucci
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES INTERNATIONAL CREDIT SUPPLY SHOCKS Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi Andrea Ferrero Alessandro Rebucci Working Paper 23841 http://www.nber.org/papers/w23841 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
The Global Economic Outlook: Stronger growth ahead, but more risks Paris, 19th November h00 Paris time
The Global Economic Outlook: Stronger growth ahead, but more risks Paris, 19th November 2013 11h00 Paris time Pier Carlo Padoan Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist OECD Economic Outlook: key messages
WHAT DO HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS SUGGEST ABOUT THE TOP 1% INCOMES AND INEQUALITY IN OECD COUNTRIES? Nicolas Ruiz (OECD)
WHAT DO HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS SUGGEST ABOUT THE TOP 1% INCOMES AND INEQUALITY IN OECD COUNTRIES? Nicolas Ruiz (OECD) Motivation: the Inclusive growth puzzle the top percentile managed to capture a very large
Earnings related schemes: Design, options and experience. Edward Whitehouse
Earnings related schemes: Design, options and experience Edward Whitehouse Retirement-income systems: goal Primary objective ensuring older people have a decent standard of living in retirement Two interpretations
COVERAGE OF PRIVATE PENSION SYSTEMS AND MAIN TRENDS IN THE PENSIONS INDUSTRY IN THE OECD
COVERAGE OF PRIVATE PENSION SYSTEMS AND MAIN TRENDS IN THE PENSIONS INDUSTRY IN THE OECD Fafo Pension Forum Oslo, 16 November 2012 Stéphanie Payet OECD Financial Affairs Division Structure of the Presentation
CORPORATE TAX STATISTICS
CORPORATE TAX STATISTICS Corporate Effective Tax Rates: Explanatory Annex (Annex applicable for corporate effective tax rates 2017) 1 Annex A. Explanatory Remarks Methodology, Exogenous Variables and Data
Revenue Statistics Tax revenue trends in the OECD
Revenue Statistics 2017 Tax revenue trends in the OECD OECD 2017 The OECD freely authorises the use of this material for non-commercial purposes, provided that suitable acknowledgment of the source and
Chapter 8.C Agricultural Production Targeting
Chapter 8.C Agricultural Production Targeting Zekarias Hussein, Robert A. McDougall, Badri Narayanan G., Iman Haqiqi 8.C.1 Background Agricultural production targeting is a procedure applied to certain
Insurance Markets in Figures
Insurance Markets in Figures June 2018 Most countries experienced a positive premium growth in life and/or non-life insurance in 2017 Preliminary data for 2017 show an increase in life and/or non-life
Can employment be increased only at the cost of more inequality?
Can employment be increased only at the cost of more inequality? Engines for More and Better Jobs in Europe ZEW Conference, Mannheim April 2013 Torben M Andersen Aarhus University Policy questions How
The Long and Short of Empirical Evidence on the Impact of NAFTA on Canada. Eugene Beaulieu Yang Song Mustafa Zamen
The Long and Short of Empirical Evidence on the Impact of NAFTA on Canada Eugene Beaulieu Yang Song Mustafa Zamen Overview Evolution of the debate and evidence The pre-nafta world: little white lies and
Credit Supply, Household Debt, and Business Cycles
Credit Supply, Household Debt, and Business Cycles Amir Sufi University of Chicago Booth School of Business; NBER; co-director of IGM February 2017 Big Picture Questions What is the source of macroeconomic
Fiscal Policy and Macro-systemic Risks
Fiscal Policy and Macro-systemic Risks Vitor Gaspar Director, Fiscal Affairs Department International Monetary Fund Integrated Macro-Financial Modeling for Robust Policy Design MACFINROBODS Paris, June
How to deal with potential secular stagnation
How to deal with potential secular stagnation Catherine L. Mann OECD Chief Economist Banque de France Paris 16 January 2017 www.oecd.org/economy/economicoutlook.htm ECOSCOPE blog: oecdecoscope.wordpress.com/
Capital Access Index 2006 Gauging Entrepreneurial Access to Capital
Capital Access Index 2006 Gauging Entrepreneurial Access to Capital Max = 10 9.0 Hong Kong 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 40 Source: Milken Institute United Kingdom U.S. India China Brazil Russia
Multinational Production: Data and Stylized Facts by Natalia Ramondo, Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, and Felix Tintelnot Online Appendix
Multinational Production: Data and Stylized Facts by Natalia Ramondo, Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, and Felix Tintelnot Online Appendix 1 Data Description 1.1 Data Sources The construction of the MP database
Understanding the Downward Trend in Labor Income Shares
Understanding the Downward Trend in Labor Income Shares Mai Dao, Mitali Das (team lead), Zsoka Koczan and Weicheng Lian, 1 with contributions from Jihad Dagher and support from Ben Hilgenstock and Hao
A note on tax base, public debt, and investors beliefs. May Abstract
A note on tax base, public debt, and investors beliefs May 2011 Abstract This paper provides a new evidence and theoretical support for the role of market expectation in the public debt markets. Dispersion
FA M I LY A L L O WA N C E A N D F E M A L E L A B O U R M A R K E T S U P P LY I G A M A G D A
FA M I LY 5 0 0 + A L L O WA N C E A N D F E M A L E L A B O U R M A R K E T S U P P LY I G A M A G D A Background & research question Introduction of a large Family 500+ Programme in 2016 in Poland aim-
HOV with technology and consumption dissimilarity
bilaterally HOV with technology and consumption dissimilarity Neil Foster and Robert Stehrer The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) Version: 2012-04-25 Study carried out within
Digital Trade Restrictiveness Index
Digital Trade Restrictiveness Index by Martina Francesca Ferracane (martina.ferracane@ecipe.org), Hosuk Lee-Makiyama (hosuk.lee-makiyama@ecipe.org), and Erik van der Marel (erik.vandermarel@ecipe.org)
How Will We Know When We Have Achieved Universal Health Coverage?
How Will We Know When We Have Achieved Universal Health Coverage? The Newly Revamped Health Equity and Financial Protection Indicators (HEFPI) Database Adam Wagstaff Research Manager, Development Research
Productivity, Reallocation, and Equity: Challenges of disruptive technology and trade
Productivity, Reallocation, and Equity: Challenges of disruptive technology and trade Catherine L. Mann OECD Chief Economist Peterson Institute for International Economics October 2017 www.oecd.org/economy
Fiscal Policy and Income Inequality. March 13, 2014
Fiscal Policy and Income Inequality March 13, 2014 Inequality has been increasing in most economies 0.55 Disposable Income Inequality: 1980 2010 0.5 0.45 Gini coefficient 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 1980 1985
A Technical Appendix for Burstein and Gopinath (2015)
A Technical Appendix for Burstein and Gopinath (2015) A.1 Definitions of variables used in construction of trade-weighted measures Define the nominal exchange rate e in,t between countries n and i as the
Upgrading business investment
218 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF TURKEY Upgrading business investment Paris, 13 July 218 http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-turkey.htm @OECDeconomy @OECD Growth remains strong despite headwinds
G20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting February February, Structural Reform in a Crisis Environment.
G20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting February 24-25 February, 2012 Structural Reform in a Crisis Environment Note by the OECD Structural reform is an essential ingredient to achieve sustainable
From Here to Eternity: The Outlook for Fiscal Adjustment in Advanced Economies. Carlo Cottarelli Director, Fiscal Affairs Department
From Here to Eternity: The Outlook for Fiscal Adjustment in Advanced Economies Carlo Cottarelli Director, Fiscal Affairs Department Peterson Institute May 2, 213 1 Main Questions How bad is the fiscal
Online Appendix for Explaining Educational Attainment across Countries and over Time
Online Appendix for Explaining Educational Attainment across Countries and over Time Diego Restuccia University of Toronto Guillaume Vandenbroucke University of Southern California March 2014 Contents
THE TAX SYSTEM IN BELGIUM COMPARED TO OTHER OECD COUNTRIES
THE TAX SYSTEM IN BELGIUM COMPARED TO OTHER OECD COUNTRIES TOWARDS A WELL-BALANCED FUNDAMENTAL TAX REFORM IN BELGIUM Bert Brys, Ph.D. 14 October 2013 Senior Tax Economist Centre for Tax Policy and Administration
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK October 2017
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK October 2017 Andreas Bauer Sr Resident Representative @imf_delhi World Economic Outlook The big picture Global activity picked up further in 2017H1 the outlook is now for higher
Multinational Production Data Set: Documentation
Multinational Production Data Set: Documentation Natalia Ramondo Andrés Rodríguez-Clare Felix Tintelnot UC-San Diego UC Berkeley and NBER U. of Chicago January 9, 2015 1 Data Description 1.1 Data Sources
GENERAL ASSESSMENT OF THE MACROECONOMIC SITUATION
OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 17 Issue OECD 17 Chapter 1 GENERAL ASSESSMENT OF THE MACROECONOMIC SITUATION 11 Introduction The global economy is now growing at its fastest pace since 1, with the upturn
CAN FDI CONTRIBUTE TO INCLUSIVE GROWTH: ROLE OF INVESTMENT FACILITATION
CAN FDI CONTRIBUTE TO INCLUSIVE GROWTH: ROLE OF INVESTMENT FACILITATION Iza Lejarraga Head of Unit, Investment Policy Linkages OECD Investment Division FIFD Workshop on Investment Facilitation for Development
Is Full Employment Sustainable?
Is Full Employment Sustainable? Antonio Fatas INSEAD Very preliminary. This version: March 11, 2019 Introduction The US economy started its current expansion phase in June 2009. This means that, as of
Wirtschaftspolitik für höheres Wachstum und weniger Ungleichheit
Wirtschaftspolitik für höheres Wachstum und weniger Ungleichheit BMWi, Berlin, 16 th March 2017 Christian Kastrop Director, Economics Department Key messages Most people in many OECD countries have seen
Trade in Value Added. Fabienne Fortanier. International trade past, present, future Alpbach Economic Symposium
Trade in Value Added International trade past, present, future Alpbach Economic Symposium Fabienne Fortanier Head of Trade Statistics Statistics Directorate, OECD 1 Increasing international fragmentation
Enhancing Fiscal Credibility: a Role for Independent Fiscal Institutions?
Enhancing Fiscal Credibility: a Role for Independent Fiscal Institutions? Overview of the Presentation The Crisis and its Fiscal Footprint The Challenge: Restoring/Maintaining Sustainability Can Fiscal
Trade led Growth in Times of Crisis Asia Pacific Trade Economists Conference 2 3 November 2009, Bangkok. Session 12
Trade led Growth in Times of Crisis Asia Pacific Trade Economists Conference 2 3 November 2009, Bangkok Session 12 Factors Contributing to Export Performance in the Aftermath of Global Economic Crisis
Regional Economic Issues in CESEE
Regional Economic Issues in CESEE JVI Lecture, Vienna, February 8, 2017 Bas B. Bakker Senior Regional Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe Outlook for CESEE 2 Within CESEE dichotomy:
Outline of Presentation. I. Trends in Revenue Mobilization. II. Measuring Tax Gap. III. IMF s Approach RA-GAP
Outline of Presentation I. Trends in Revenue Mobilization II. Measuring Tax Gap III. IMF s Approach RA-GAP 2 TRENDS IN REVENUE MOBILIZATION 3 I. Trends in Revenue Mobilization VAT revenues CIT Revenues
Economic Growth: Lecture 1 (first half), Stylized Facts of Economic Growth and Development
14.452 Economic Growth: Lecture 1 (first half), Stylized Facts of Economic Growth and Development Daron Acemoglu MIT October 24, 2012. Daron Acemoglu (MIT) Economic Growth Lecture 1 October 24, 2012. 1
Fiscal Implications of Population Ageing Asian Countries
Disclaimer: The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this material represent the views of the author(s) and are not necessarily those of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO)
Decomposition of Poland s Bilateral Trade Imbalances by Value Added Content
2017, Vol. 5, No. 2 DOI: 10.15678/EBER.2017.050203 Decomposition of Poland s Bilateral Trade Imbalances by Value Added Content Łukasz Ambroziak A B S T R A C T Objective: The objective of this paper is
Inclusive Growth. Miguel Niño-Zarazúa UNU-WIDER
Inclusive Growth Miguel Niño-Zarazúa UNU-WIDER Significant poverty reduction since 1990s Latin America Percentage of people living on less than $1.25 USD fell from 47% (2bp) in 1990 to 24% (1.4bp) in 2008
MMGPI 2016 Outcomes. Dr David Knox Senior Partner, Mercer
Editions 2016 Top 3 Rankings MMGPI 2016 Outcomes Dr David Knox Senior Partner, Mercer Every retirement system is different! Insurance Private Public Pensions DC Indexation Assets RETIREMENT INCOME SYSTEMS
Productivity and income differences in the 20 th century
Productivity and income differences in the 20 th century Robert Inklaar and Daniel Gallardo Albarrán (University of Groningen) World KLEMS Conference, June 4 5 2018 Development accounting What can account
POLICY STRATEGIES FOR GROWTH- AND EQUITY- FRIENDLY FISCAL CONSOLIDATION
POLICY STRATEGIES FOR GROWTH- AND EQUITY- FRIENDLY FISCAL CONSOLIDATION Jan Stráský With input from Boris Cournède, André Goujard and Álvaro Pina Prague, 19 October 2015 Remarks The opinions expressed
STRUCTURAL POLICIES AND THE DISTRIBUTION
STRUCTURAL POLICIES AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE GROWTH DIVIDENDS June 22 nd 2015 Naomitsu YASHIRO and Orsetta CAUSA OECD Economics Department Structural Surveillance Division Overview The dividends of
Cross-Country Income Differences Revisited: Accounting for the Role of Intangible Capital
Cross-Country Income Differences Revisited: Accounting for the Role of Intangible Capital Presented at the Fourth World KLEMS Conference, Madrid, Spain Wen Chen University of Groningen, The Netherlands
Slovak Competitiveness: Fundamentals, Indicators and Challenges
Copyright rests with the author Slovak Competitiveness: Fundamentals, Indicators and Challenges Presentation by Mark De Broeck European Department, IMF Seminar Organized by the European Commission November
2018 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF CHILE
2018 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF CHILE Boosting productivity and quality jobs Santiago, 26 February 2018 http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-chile.htm @OECDeconomy @OECD Convergence has been impressive
How demanding are eligibility criteria for unemployment benefits? Quantitative indicators for OECD and EU countries
Seminar on Coverage of unemployment benefits Brussels, 9 December 2015 How demanding are eligibility criteria for unemployment benefits? Quantitative indicators for OECD and EU countries Kristine Langenbucher
Why Have Some CESEE Countries Done Better Than Others since Early Transition?
Why Have Some CESEE Countries Done Better Than Others since Early Transition? IMF Macroeconomic Policy Seminar Vienna, June 13, 2018 Bas B. Bakker Senior Regional Resident Representative for Central, Eastern
OECD MULTI-DIMENSIONAL COUNTRY REVIEW - THAILAND INITIAL ASSESSMENT REPORT
OECD MULTI-DIMENSIONAL COUNTRY REVIEW - THAILAND INITIAL ASSESSMENT REPORT Bangkok, 9 April 2018 OECD Team for MDCR of Thailand http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/multi-dimensional-review-thailand.htm Main
Monetary Policy Implementation During US Policy Normalization. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México
Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México JP Morgan Investor Seminar Washington, DC, 1 October 214 1 Outline 1 Introduction 2 Monetary Policy in 214-15 a. The External Environment b. Domestic
OECD Workshop on effective corporate taxation. Corporate taxation on FDI; Kwang-Yeol. YOO, Korean Ministry of Finance. July.
OECD Workshop on effective corporate taxation Corporate taxation on FDI; 1991-001 Kwang-Yeol YOO, Korean Ministry of Finance July.4th, 006 Table of contents I. How to measure tax burden on FDI II. Tax
Corporate Standards and Disclosure Around the World: What works?
Corporate Standards and Disclosure Around the World: What works? Professor Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes Yale University International Institute for Corporate Governance September 20, 2002. Why do some countries
OECD long-term projections for the global economy. David Turner, OECD
OECD long-term projections for the global economy David Turner, OECD CMTEA Workshop, 1 st Feb 2013 Overview of long-term model Coverage: OECD & non-oecd G20 countries to 2060 Potential output projections
THE PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE
THE PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE OF ECONOMIC CONVERGENCE Dani Rodrik October 2013 Global income disparities $35,000 $30,000 Per capita income levels in different country groups (2012, in 2005 PPP$) $31,625
Tinyiko Ngwenya. Economist at Old Mutual Investment #OMTMRW
@oldmutualsa #OMTMRW Tinyiko Ngwenya Economist at Old Mutual Investment Group Tinyiko is an economist in the MacroSolutions Economic Research Unit and is responsible for analysing key macro-economic data
2017 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF SWITZERLAND
217 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF SWITZERLAND Boosting productivity and meeting skills needs Bern, 14 November 217 http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-switzerland.htm @OECDeconomy @OECD Living standards