2016 External Sector Report

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1 216 External Sector Report Global Imbalances and Policy Challenges September, 216 o Evolution of Global Current Accounts and Exchange Rates Widening and reconfiguration of imbalances in 215 Drivers: Asymmetric global recovery, commodity/k-flow shocks o Assessment of External Positions How Assessments Are Conducted (model vs. judgment)? External Assessments for 215 o Policy Challenges 1

2 Evolution of Global Current Accounts and Exchange Rates 3 Global Current Account Imbalances, (percent of World GDP) Oil exporters Other Surplus Surplus AEs JPN DEU/NLD EA (other) Other Deficit AE Comm. Exp Deficit EMs GBR USA Discrepancy -3 Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database and Fund Staff calculations. 1/ Surplus AEs: Korea, Hong Kong SAR, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan POC; AE Commodity Exporters: Australia, Canada, New Zealand; Deficit EMs: Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey; Oil Exporters: WEO definition + Norway. 2

3 Change in Current Account Reconfiguration of Current Account Balances (percent of GDP) ZAF TUR GBR COL MAR Narrowing imbalances BRA NZL PER CAN IDN USA GRC FIN FRA ARG JPN CZE ESP CHL HKG AUT ITA HUN IRL PHL THA MYS SWE DEU DNK CHE Widening imbalances EGY SAU -3 Narrowing Widening imbalances (1, -18) imbalances Current Account NLD NOR Source: World Economic Outlook and Fund Staff calculations. 1/ Red (green) bubbles indicate widening (narrowing) of imbalances. Bubble sizes are proportional to the change in current account, in percent of world GDP (i.e., contributions to reconfiguration of global imbalances). REER of Systemic Economies, (Index, average 21-15=1) Aug-216 2/ U.S. China Euro Area Japan U.K. Other EMEs 1/ Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics; World Economic Outlook Database, Global Statistics Database. 1/ GDP-weighted average of ESR countries. 2/ Period average. Other AMs 1/ 75 3

4 Current Account Balance (average ) NFA and Current Account Balance (percent of GDP) 15 SAU Expanding creditor positions 1 NLD NOR SWE DNK DEU CHE 5-5 HUN IRL PRT GRC NZL ESP MAR PHL THA ITA CZE FRA MYS AUT FIN ARG IDN USA BRA CAN GBR TUR ZAF COL ISR JPN Net Foreign Assets, 21 Sources: World Economic Outlook, IMF International Financial Statistics, and IMF staff calculations. 1/ Bubble size proportional to countries US$ GDP. BEL HKG (29, 3) Expanding debtor -1 positions Drivers of the 215 External Reconfiguration 4

5 SAU BRA CAN NOR COL EGY CHL ARG HKG BEL SGP ESP ISR GBR TUR IRL ITA THA FRA DEU JPN USA Systemic Currencies: Real Effective Exchange Rate, Jan-198 to May-216 (Index, Average =1) 11 Real GDP, (Index, 27=1) US 1. Monetary policy and 2-year interest rate, (percent) US UK Japan Euro area 2-year rate 1/ 15 UK.5 Japan 1 95 Euro area. -.5 Monetary policy rate US UK Japan Euro area Sources: World Economic Outlook, Haver Analytics, and IMF staff calculations. 1/ 2-year maturity treasure bond. For the euro area, Germany Treasury Bond is reported. Terms-of-trade Income Windfall. Largest Gains and Losses, 215 (in percent of GDP).2% 1% In percent of World GDP.1% In percent of own GDP (right scale) 6% 2%.% -2% -.1% Commodity exporters Commodity importers -6% SAU (-18) -.2% -1% Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics, WEO, and IMF staff calculations. 1/ Methodological details are provided in Appendix I. Countries with small ToT income shocks (less than.1% of world GDP) are excluded. 2/ Classification into commodity exporter/importer based on the direction of the terms-of-trade movement in

6 215 Terms of Trade Income Windfall.6%.4%.2% ToT Windfall Gains and Losses: Effect on Global Imbalances, 215 2/ (in percent of World GDP) Deficit Commodity Importers (narrowing deficits) (U.S., U.K., ) Surplus Commodity Importers (widening surpluses) (China, euro area, Japan Korea, ).% -.2% -.4% -.6% Deficit Commodity Exporters (widening deficits) Surplus Commodity Exporters (narrowing surpluses) (Saudi Arabia, Norway, ) -.8% (Australia, Canada, Mexico, ) -1.% -1.% -.5%.%.5% 1.% 1.5% 214 Current Account Balance Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics, WEO, and IMF staff calculations. 1/ Methodological details are provided in Appendix I. Countries with small ToT income shocks (less than.1% of world GDP) are excluded. 2/ Classification into commodity exporter/importer based on the direction of the terms-of-trade movement in 215. Selected EMs: Capital Inflows, Current Account and Cost of External Financing, (Excludes China, Russia and Saudi Arabia, in percent of GDP, 4-quarter moving average) Commodity Exporting EMEs 1/ Commodity Importing EMEs 1/ Rising reserves 5 1. Net Non-Reserve Capital Inflows Current Account Deficit -5 EMBI Spread (RHS) 2/. 214Q1 214Q3 215Q1 215Q3 214Q1 214Q3 215Q1 215Q3-1 Sources: Haver Analytics; Bloomberg; IMF, World Economic Outlook; IMF, Balance of Payment Statistics; and IMF staff calculations. 1/ Commodity exporters include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Egypt, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Peru, South Africa, Sri Lanka. Commodity importers include Costa Rica, Guatemala, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Philippines, Poland, Thailand, Turkey, Uruguay. GDP weighted averages are reported. Other countries not reported due to data limitations. Russia is excluded as dynamics mostly reflect idiosyncratic geopolitical factors. 2/ EMBI sovereign spreads relative to January 214 level. 6

7 Illustration of capital flow supply and demand shifts Commodity exporters Commodity importers s (spread) Demand Supply s Demand Supply B S B S A A S B =S A C A KF A = KF B KF (Capital Inflows) KF C KF A KF Current Account Decomposition. All Countries (in percent of World GDP) Current Account Components Trade Balance Components 1.%.5% Income account change reconciliation term Net Export Volume Terms-of-trade direct effect CA/GDP Change 1.%.5% Export Volume Import Volume 2/ Net Export Volume.%.% -.5% -.5% -1.% Deficit Surplus Deficit Surplus -1.% Deficit Surplus Deficit Surplus Commodity Exporters Commodity Importers Commodity Exporters Commodity Importers Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics, and IMF staff estimates. 1/ Deficit and surplus countries are classified based on CA balance in 214. AE exclude USA, GBR, JPN, EA countries; EMEs exclude, SAU,. See Appendix I for technical details on the current account decomposition. 2/ A negative import contribution to the net trade volume implies an expansion of imports. 7

8 Real Exports 1 REER and Export Volumes, 215 (annual percentage change) BRA CAN EA SWE FRA SPA NET BEL GRE ZAF ITA JAP SGP UK CHE US MYS TUR THL SAU -2 IDN HKG REER Sources: WEO and IMF Staff calculations. External Sector Assessments 8

9 Change in Staff Assessed CA GAP, Art IV. Consultation Country authorities EBA model estimates Country teams ESR Country Page ESR Overview Paper Other external sector indicators Refinements Year-round Discussions ESR Group o Multilateral consistency and evenhandedness o Vetting of assessments o Cross-cutting issues o Role of policies Staff-Assessed Current Account Gaps, (percent of own GDP) 2. IDN THA widening gaps BRA TUR ZAF GBR widening gaps SPA EA FRA HKG ITA SWI CAN BEL USA JPN NLD SWE DEU MYS SGP -2. SAU Staff Assessed CA GAP 214 Source: Mid-points of IMF Staff assessments. 1/ For Korea, the lower gap largely reflects additional adjustment on the income balance. 18 9

10 REER Change relative to avg. 215 (percent) Stronger than Implied by Fundamentals 1/ Broadly in Line with Fundamentals 1/ Weaker than Implied by Fundamentals 1/ Germany Moderatly Substantially Korea Stronger Singapore Broadly in line Malaysia Weaker Netherlands Sweden China Thailand Japan Switzerland Euro Area Hong Kong SAR India Mexico Poland Italy United States Saudi Arabia Indonesia Russia Canada Belgium Australia Brazil France South Africa Turkey United Kingdom Spain / Stronger (weaker) implies 'undervaluation' ('overvaluation'). Grouping is based on countries' prevailing assessment during ESR Countries: 215 REER Gaps vs. REER Changes since 215 1/ 216 exchange rate developments may support some narrowing of excess imbalances but uncertainties remain Post-U.K. referendum change DEU SGP MYS JPN SWE IDN HKG EA NLD THA Possibly larger over-valuation CAN BRA BEL FRA ESP TUR ITL CHE ZAF USA -15 GBR Possibly larger under-valuation REER Gap (midpoint) Sources: GDS and IMF Staff calculations. 1/ Pre-Brexit REER iis proxied as May average. Latest is REER average for August

11 Output Gap, 215 (% of potential GDP) Policy Challenges ESR Economies: Current Account Gaps and Output Gap, (percent of GDP) 1% In the near term, policies need to balance internal and external objectives, within the limits of policy space % -1% -2% GBR TUR BRA USA ZAF BEL CAN FRA CHE IDN -3% ITA NLD Negative Output Gap Negative Output Gap Excess External Deficit Excess External Surplus -4% ESP -4% -2% % 2% 4% CA Gap, 215 (% of GDP) SWE JPN MYS THA DEU Source: World Economic Outlook and Fund staff estimations. 1/ Area of bubble is proportional to the country's NFA level in percent of GDP. Orange (white) bubbles denote creditor (debtor) position. 11

12 Selected ESR Countries: Change in Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance, (in percent of Total GDP of Selected Countries) US/UK/Euro Area Debtor China Other Surplus Other Deficit Total ? Source: IMF World Economic Outlook and Fund Staff estimates. 1/ Other deficit countries include Australia, Canada, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, and Turkey. Euro area deficit includes Belgium, France, Italy, and Spain. Other surplus countries include Germany, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, The Netherlands, Sweden, and Thailand. Weighted by the share of the country in the group. Reforms tailored to country circumstances and carefully designed/sequenced to avoid undermining near-term demand. Excess Surplus Countries. strengthen social safety nets and reform pensions to reduce precautionary savings. facilitate balance sheet repair and enterprise reform;. streamline service and product sector regulations;. mobilize corporate investment. strengthen financial intermediation;. reduce strengthen generosity social safety of pension nets and systems; reform pensions to raise the retirement age. eliminate export barriers;. facilitate diversification and growth of the non-commodity sector;. increase labor market flexibility;. address infrastructure bottlenecks Excess Deficit Countries 12

13 Widening and reconfiguration of global imbalances in 215 o Uneven AM recoveries o Commodity Price Decline o Tighter external financial conditions for EMEs Widening of excess imbalances among systemic economies o Larger excess surpluses (Germany, Japan) and deficits (U.S., U.K.) o Some narrowing of excess deficits in EMs and EA debtor countries o Little progress in dealing with excess surpluses Persistent imbalances o Projected expansion of stock imbalances o Increased vigilance necessary (debtors and creditors) Recent developments o Some reversal of trends observed last year (Japan, U.K.), but impact of U.K. referendum remains uncertain More balanced policy mix needed to address (domestic and external) imbalances Less demand-diverting: avoid overreliance on monetary policy More demand-supporting (fiscal) and structural policies Surplus countries with fiscal space to play a greater role Global collective action, especially if global demand weakens further 216 External Sector Report Global Imbalances and Policy Challenges September,

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