Towards a more prosperous and inclusive Argentina

Transcription

1 2017 MULTIDIMENSIONAL ECONOMIC SURVEY OF ARGENTINA Towards a more prosperous and inclusive Argentina Internet: oe.cd/20d Buenos Aires, July 2017 OECD Economics OECD

2 Main messages Following years of unsustainable economic policies, Argentina has undertaken ambitious reforms. But the work is far from being finished. Many challenges still lie ahead. 2

3 Argentina has lost grounds in terms of incomes Source: OECD calculations based on Bolt and Van Zanden (2014) (see 3

4 Poverty and inequality have fallen but remain very high Source: Encuesta Permanente de Hogares (EPH) 2016 and OECD Income Distribution Database (2016)

5 Significant macroeconomic imbalances have built up: Fiscal deficit Source: CEIC, Datastream, Ministerio de Hacienda 5

6 Significant macroeconomic imbalances have built up: Inflation 1. Based on the Congress CPI, only for the greater Buenos Aires area. Source: INDEC, Diputados del Congreso Indice Nacional 6

7 Growth was not sustainable Source: INDEC 7

8 Further reforms will bring susbtantial benefits Source: OECD computations. 8

9 First challenge: Ensuring sound and sustainable macroeconomics 9

10 Bringing down inflation will be challenging Source: BCRA, CEIC. 10

11 Public expenditure and taxes are high Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database, October

12 There is scope for reducing expenditures Los subsidios están siendo reducidos pero todavía representan el 2.2% del PIB. Source: OECD calculations, Ministerio de Hacienda, OECD/IDB/CIAT (2016), Taxing Wages and Taxing Wages in Latin America and the Caribbean, OECD Publishing, Paris. 12

13 The tax system is not very efficient Income threshold where single taxpayers start paying income tax, as a multiple of the average wage 1. For India, the average worker income is for the organised manufacturing sector as reported in the Annual Survey of Industries. Source: OECD calculations for Argentina (based on 2016 data), Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and South Africa; and OECD Taxing Wages 2016 for the rest of the countries; OECD Government at a glance (2016). 13

14 Key recommendations Macroeconomic policies Reinforce the independence of the Central Bank by limiting the possibilities for dismissal of the governor. Simplify the Central Bank s mandate, prioritising price stability. Continue to to pursue planned fiscal targets. Phase out energy subsidies, rationalise public employment and achieve further cost savings in state-owned enterprises. Undertake a revenue-neutral tax reform, including - Lowering the income threshold where taxpayers start paying personal income taxes and ensuring a progressive rate schedule. - Introducing progressivity into social security contributions. - Phasing out the provincial turnover tax and financial transaction tax. 14

15 Second challenge: Raising productivity and living standards 15

16 Investment and productivity growth have been low Source: OECD and CEP (Centro de Estudios de la Productividad). 16

17 Barriers to entrepreneurship are high and regulatory procedures are complex Source: OECD Product market regulation database 17

18 More young firms and start-ups are needed Source: OECD computations based on World Bank Enterprise survey database. 18

19 Few companies are headed by female managers Source: World Bank Enterprise survey database. 19

20 Argentina is only sparsely integrated into the global economy Source: IMF International Financial Statistics; OECD Economic Outlook 100 database; 20

21 Better training can help to find new jobs Source: World Bank ASPIRE database and OECD Stats. Data pertain to 2014 or latest available year. 21

22 Key recommendations Strengthening productivity and investment Simplify administrative procedures to start a company. Ensure that the competition authority has autonomy and adequate resources. Lower import tariffs and further reduce the application of non-automatic import licenses. Protect workers with unemployment insurance and training rather than strict labour regulations. Develop the vocational education system Better align curriculums with labour market needs. Promote gender equity. 22

23 Third challenge: Reducing poverty and inequality 23

24 Transfer programmes reduce poverty and inequality Source: OECD estimates. 24

25 Half the population is poor or at risk of falling into poverty, particularly children Affluent 6% Poor 31% Middle Class 44% At risk of falling into poverty 20% % of population Relative poverty by age group Children (<18) Youths (18-25) Adults (26-65) Elderly (>65) Argentina LAC 9 OECD Source: Encuesta Permanente de Hogares (EPH) 2016 ; OECD Income Distribution Database (2016)

26 The sustainability of the pension system is at risk Pension levels are high relative to working-age wages Source: OECD Pensions at a glance,

27 GTM HND BRA PER NIC MEX PRY COL SLV BOL DOM PAN CRI URY ECU ARG CHL Creating quality jobs is crucial for eliminating poverty in a sustainable manner % Employment, 2016 Poor At risk of falling into poverty Middle Class Affluent % of employment Informality, 2016 Percentage point Gap in employment among adult and youth population, Poor At risk of falling into poverty Middle Class Affluent Source: Encuesta Permanente de Hogares (EPH) 2016 and CEDLAC (2016).

28 Female labour participation is low Source: OECDstat, 2015, EPH (INDEC), 2016 for Argentina. 28

29 URY MEX BRA LAC CRI COL ARG ESP ISL ITA PRT CHL HUN EST EU GBR NOR BEL DEU FRA LUX FIN NLD GRC DNK AUT SWE IRL SVK CZE POL CHE SVN ISR DEU AUS FRA OECD CHL ITA ARG COL ESP BRA TUR MEX AUS ISR ESP OECD JPN DEU COL CHL TUR MEX ITA ARG Improving access, quality and equity in the education system is a priority % Education secondary (population aged 25-34) % Education tertiary (population aged 25-34) % Young people (18-24 aged) who did not finish the secondary, 2014 Source : UNESCO (2016), OECD PISA (2016), OECD Education at a Glance (2016) y EPH 2016 (INDEC).

30 PER BRA CAN COL JPN ARG GRC ESP MEX FRA DEU LAC ISR CHL TUR CRI OECD SWE POL AUS ITA AUT CHE FIN NLD Improving skills brings short-term and long-term benefits % Percentage of firms identifying difficulty in filling jobs, FRA ESP ITA CRI AUT OECD MEX LAC DEU COL ISR ARG TUR JAP % Percentage of secondary students enrolled in vocational education Source: ManPower (2016), UNESCO (2016), y EPH 2016 (INDEC).

31 Key recommendations Reducing inequalities Integrate existing social protection programmes and allow them to share registries and targeting tools. Index pension benefits to consumer prices and align retirement ages for women to those for men. Merge teacher training institutions and strengthen their quality standards, governance, accounting requirements and transparency. Strengthen mechanisms to identify and support students at risk of dropping out through tutoring and individualised support.. Expand early childhood education, promote flexible working time arrangements and extend paternity leave. Lower social security contributions temporarily for low-paid workers whose jobs are brought into the formal sector. Scale up training, employment services, and simplify administrative procedures to start a company Enforce formalisation and compliance with more labour inspections. 31

32 For more information oe.cd/20d Disclaimers: The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. OECD Economics OECD 32