LA SOSTENIBILITÀ E L ADEGUATEZZA DEI SISTEMI PENSIONISTICI NEI PAESI OCSE

Transcription

1 LA SOSTENIBILITÀ E L ADEGUATEZZA DEI SISTEMI PENSIONISTICI NEI PAESI OCSE Anna Cristina D ADDIO Social Policy Division, OECD CONFERENZA FINALE del progetto IESS Roma, 16 Maggio 2016

2 Outline The context Challenges and risks for pension systems Conclusion 2

3 Setting the context (Post-)crisis Low growth High unemployment Rapid population ageing 3

4 IE LU NO BE SE DK UK FR LT FI CY NL OECD22 LV CZ EU28 MT AT RO SI HU HR EE IT ES BG DE EL PL PT SK Life expectancy increases: the share of the elderly will increase substantially ,2 Sources: data from The 2015 Ageing Report, European Union 4

5 LU IE NO BE SE DK UK FR FI LT NL OECD22 CZ EU28 LV AT MT RO HR SI HU IT ES EE BG DE EL PL PT SK The number of elderly (65+) per working-age (15-64) people will increase Number of elderly people per working age people Sources: data from The 2012 Ageing Report, European Union 5

6 while population will tend to shrink Total fertility rate, Italy Northern Europe Southern Europe All other OECD Europe OECD averge Replacement level Northern Europe OECD average All other OECD Europe 1.6 Italy Southern Europe 1 Source: OECD (2015) OECD Family Database 6

7 Implying a smaller number of contributors for retirees in many countries Number of contributors for 100 pensioners Sources: data from EU (2015) The 2015 Ageing Report, European Union 7

8 NLD IRL EST GBR SVK SWE CZE OECD LUX NOR DEU DNK POL HUN SVN BEL ESP FIN PRT AUT FRA ITA GRC In Italy: Public expenditure on pensions is predicted to decline by around 2 pp of GDP % of GDP Source: EU (2015) The 2015 Ageing Report 8

9 But financial pressures are still relatively large Pre- and post-crisis government gross financial liabilities, 2007 and 2014 (or latest year available) - % GDP OECD OECD Source: OECD (2015), OECD Economic Outlook 97 Database, 9

10 Trends of pension reforms in OECD countries (1) Financial sustainability has driven many reforms in recent years Retrenchment of public pensions But low earners generally better protected Net pension replacement rates according to OECD pension models 63% for average wage earners and 73% for low earners Expansion of private pensions but also reversal of previous reforms in somec countries because of the crisis and the need for fiscal consolidation 10

11 Trends of pension reforms in OECD countries (2) Expanding coverage Private and public pension Enhancing administrative efficiency and transparency of pension systems Design of policies for funded schemes is important (see the OECD roadmap on DC in annex to the presentation) 11

12 Trends of reforms of the last decades Moving towards a tighter link between contribution and pension benefits DC, NDC (SWE, ITA, POL, LTV, NOR); NDC have some nice properties but need to be well designed. Extending working lives 12

13 Extending working lives mandating working longer Retirement ages have increased Early-retirement schemes have been closed down and the access to those still existing has been tightened The access to alternative pathways such as disability and unemployment has been tightened the benefits have been restricted to those genuinely sick and unable to work (such as in CZE, DNK, FIN, FRA, GRC, HUN, POL and ESP) Job-search requirements have been tightened for older workers, Automatic adjustments (linking) have been introduced to increase retirement ages and to lengthen career length 13 13

14 Retirement ages will increase Current irrespective of age of entry Current with entry at age 20 Future (entry at age 20) United Kingdom Ireland Czech Republic United States Slovak Republic Poland Norway Netherlands Italy Israel Iceland Denmark Canada Australia Portugal OECD Turkey Switzerland Sweden Spain New Zealand Mexico Korea Japan Hungary Germany Finland Estonia Belgium France Greece Slovenia Luxembourg Retirement ages, current and future 14 14

15 Extending working lives giving more choice Flexible retirement age with neutral/actuarial benefit formula Possibility to combine old-age pension and work without reduction More flexibility in late career Increase penalties for early retirement Increase bonus to defer retirement Abolish mandatory retirement 15

16 The effective age of labour market exit is rising OECD OECD But remains low compared to the OECD average 16 16

17 Promoting longer working lives is key for both financial sustainability EU28: 11.3% GDP in 2013 to 11.1%GDP in 2060 Italy: 15.7% GDP in 2013 to 13.8%GDP in 2060 dependency ratio (+) coverage ratio (-) benefit ratio (-) employment rate (-) labour intensity (+) career shift (-) residual Decomposition of growth in pension spending (as a % of GDP) Note: - Implies a decline in pensions expenditure ; + implies an increase. Source: Based on data extracted from EU(2015) The 2015 Ageing report and retirement-income adequacy 17 17

18 MEX CHL GBR JPN IRL CAN NZL USA KOR CHE DEU POL GRC EST BEL OECD34 FIN SWE CZE DNK FRA ISL ITA LUX ESP PRT HUN AUT NLD TUR But replacement rates for future retirees will vary substantially across countries % Total net Future net RR for average wave workers with voluntary In Italy they will be above average in case of a steady and continuous career from age 20 until RA Source: OECD pension models 18 18

19 However, many workers are not employed, particularly in the older groups Employment rates of workers aged 55-69, Source: OECD Employment Outlook

20 Pension reforms: which challenges for the future? NDC is based on a strong ling between contributions and pension benefits Precarious careers and earnings profiles may have a strong effect on future pension entitlements How to best protect the most vulnerable? How to develop private pensions? 20

21 What are the risks? Intergenerational gaps are increasing: Poverty is higher among young and prime-age people Unemployment is very high and careers are more precarious Employment rates of older workers have increased, while they have decline for young people but differences persist Pensions are a long term issue: financial risks also matter 21

22 PT GR IS RO US HR DK SE CY GB JP MT IE EE NO HU FI CH FR ES LU SI EU28 LV LT CZ PL AT BE NL IT BG SK DE Change in employment rates between 2005 and 2014 by gender (in p.p.) Employment rates of older workers have increased and largest contribution to this increase are by women but less in Italy relative to men Women Men Source: Based on EU LFS data But differences persit by gender, education, sector of activities, health status 22

23 Germany Mexico Iceland Israel Italy Portugal Chile Netherlands Sweden Estonia Austria Korea Finland Denmark Slovak Republic Hungary OECD Switzerland France Poland Norway Belgium Greece Turkey Czech Republic Luxembourg Japan Slovenia Canada Ireland New Zealand Spain United Kingdom United States In Italy pension reductions for career breaks are already above average in a relatively optimistic scenario (Future) relative gross pension entitlements of someone who has a 5-year career-break relative to a full-career worker, %, average-wage worker 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% Childcare ( ) Baseline Unemployment 23 23

24 Poverty risks have shifted to the young over time Poverty rates for each age group relative to population s Mid-1980s Mid-1990s or latest Mid-1980s Mid-1990s or latest OECD Italy Relative poverty rate of the population in each year =

25 Young people experience delayed entry, more precarious careers and unemployment % More than ¼ of young people aged between 15 and 29 were NEETS in Italy in Fonte: OECD (2015) Employment Outlook 2015 e OECD (2015) Pensions at a Glance 2015, Capitolo

26 Safety nets are important For those eligible both minimum and safety nets are weaker than in other countries % of average earnings Basic (residence) Safety-net Minimum But there is no longer any minimum pensions for workers in the NDC 26 26

27 Conclusion (1): Many challenges ahead Pension spending is still set to increase in many OECD countries Future entitlements will generally be lower and depend more closely on labour and financial market performances. Retirement-income adequacy may become a major challenge for those who have not contributed enough. 27

28 Conclusion (2) There is no magic solution for a more sustainable, adequate and equitable pension system; Process of reforms has accelerated but there may be the need to do more Trade-off sustainability/adequacy will stay 28

29 Conclusion (3) In Italy the previous reforms have contributed to stabilise pension spending in the LT But the success of these reforms will depend on well functioning labour market for older workers Need to increase coverage for the selfemployed and the informal sector 29

30 Conclusion (4) Need to develop labour market policies to effectively deliver longer working lives: increasing retirement ages alone will not suffice Does living longer mean working longer? Does working longer also means working better? 30

31 Conclusion (5) Risk diversification is still important despite the financial and socio-economic context However additional voluntary savings may be unaffordable Need to think of «pensions» in a broader context Communication and information are crucial Pension reforms have social and economics implications that matter 31

32 Conclusion (6) Safety nets for the most vulnerable are needed too Achieve different objectives at the same time (equity, security and adequacy of benefits, solidarity) ; Broad and comprehensive approach to ageing is essential A strong and competitive labour market is essential too 32

33 Pensions at a Glance 2015 OECD and G20 INDICATORS anna.daddio@oecd.org Web page:

34 The OECD Roadmap for the good design of DC pension plans 1. Design DC pension plans coherently with structure of the pension system 2. Encourage people to contribute and contribute for long periods 3. Improve the design of incentives to contributions and coverage 4. Promote low-cost retirement savings instruments 5. Establish appropriate default inv. strategies while providing choice 6. Favour life-cycle (LC) investment strategies as defaults 7. Encourage annuitization as a protection against LR 8. Promote the supply of annuittes 9. Make it easier to deal with Longevity Risk 10. Ensure effective communication and address financial literacy This Roadmap was approved by the OECD Woking party on Private pensions in June For a full copy see