Macroeconomics Graphs. David L. Kelly. Department of Economics University of Miami Box Coral Gables, FL

Transcription

1 Macroeconomics Graphs David L. Kelly Department of Economics University of Miami Box Coral Gables, FL Current Version: Summer 213

2 I Introduction A US GDP/Unemployment Real Gross Domestic Product, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 28 Recession Billions of 25 dollars Recession 21 Recession Figure 1: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), adjusted for inflation 1

3 11 Unemployment rate, Seasonally Adjusted Recession Percent of workers unemployed Recession Recession Figure 2: Unemployment Rate: People looking and unable to find work, as a percentage of the total employed and unemployed. 2

4 68 Participation rate, Seasonally Adjusted 67 Percent of workers working or looking for work Figure 3: Participation Rate: People looking or working, as a percentage of the total able to work. 3

5 18 u6 Unemployment (includes part time workers looking for full time, discouraged workers) 16 Percent of workers underemployed Figure 4: U6 unemployment rate: People looking and unable to find work, or working part time but unable to find full time, or discouraged from looking. 4

6 B World GDP/Unemployment China Thailand Average Annual Growth Rate in real GDP, Chile Australia United States Portugal New Zealand Brazil Bolivia Greece Niger Nicaragua Venezuela percent growth per Figure 5: Average real GDP growth, , selected countries. 5

7 GDP per capita, adjusted for purchasing power across countries 198 and 26. Thousands of dollars 45 Nor USA Ire Sin Jap Fin Aus GBR Ntd Ger Swe Ita Fra Den Can Swi GDP per capita, 26 Spa NZe 25 Kor Gre Por 2 15 Pol Arg Sau chl Mex 1 Tha Bra Tur Pan Col Chi Per Ven 5 Ecu ElS Ina Ind Phi Bol Ban Cam Hon Nic Eth Nig Ngr GDP per capia, 198 Figure 6: GDP per person(mean income) in thousands of dollars, across countries. Adjusted for differences in purchasing power across countries. 6

8 Average unemployment rate across countries Spain Ireland Italy France Canada Greece Finland Denmark Germany United Kingdom Australia Portugal United States New Zealand Netherlands Sweden Norway Korea Japan Singapore Switzerland percent unemployed Figure 7: Average unemployment rate, across countries. 7

9 C Recessions Real GDP, Last 4 Recessions. Percent Change From Start of Recession 1981 Recession 199 Recession 21 Recession 28 Recession 1 8 Percent Quarters after recession starts Figure 8: Real GDP: Last 4 recessions 8

10 12 1 Unemployment, Last 4 Recessions. Percent Change From Start of Recession 1981 Recession 199 Recession 21 Recession 28 Recession 8 6 Percent Months after recession starts Figure 9: Unemployment: Last 4 recessions 9

11 4 3 Fixed Investment, Last 4 Recessions. Percent Change From Start of Recession 1981 Recession 199 Recession 21 Recession 28 Recession 2 1 Percent Quarters after recession starts Figure 1: Fixed Investment: purchase of goods and services by firms and new housing. Last 4 recessions 1

12 1 Residential Fixed Investment, Last 4 Recessions. Percent Change From Start of Recession 1981 Recession 199 Recession 21 Recession 28 Recession 5 Percent Quarters after recession starts Figure 11: Residential Investment: New housing. Last 4 recessions 11

13 D Prices/Inflation/Money 25 Consumer Price Index (all goods, average=1) 2 15 Something that costs $1 in 1983 costs $ today CPI Figure 12: Consumer Price Index (CPI): Cost of a basket of goods purchased by a typical urban family. Scaled so that the cost in 1983 is $1. 12

14 16 CPI Inflation s Oil Crises 12 1 Percent Change CPI Figure 13: Consumer Price Index Inflation: Percentage change in the CPI. 13

15 2 M1 over time Current Expansion By the FED M1 1 Postwar Expansion Little growth before WWII Figure 14: M1,

16 3 M1 Money Supply 25 Current Expansion 2 M Postwar Expansion Figure 15: M1, 1959-present 15

17 E Interest rates 25 Taylor Rule vs Actual FED Funds 2 Taylor Rule Actual FED Funds 15 R 1 5 recent deviations from Taylor rule Figure 16: Federal Funds Rate (FED Funds): Overnight lending rate between banks. The Federal Reserve is a government institution that lends and borrows in the FED funds market and therefore controls the FED funds rate. The Taylor Rule represents the typical FED funds rate targeted by the FED given current economic conditions. 16