Monthly Survey of Real Estate Agents February 2018

Transcription

1 Monthly Survey of Real Estate Agents February 18 March 9, 18 Susan Maklari Analyst (212) Christopher Kalata (212) Channel Checks Lead to Expectations of a Strong Selling Season: In order to better assess conditions across the largest housing markets in the US, we surveyed ~5 real estate agents. For February, our at 48 was approximately flat sequentially. Agent commentary suggests limited inventory along with the prospect of higher rates is motivating buyers to start their search earlier. In several areas, including Phoenix, Las Vegas and Tampa, employment relocations and in-migration from higher cost states is causing traffic levels to exceed expectations. We believe the heightened activity atypical for February bodes well for the spring with agents expecting demand levels to hold through the season. Regionally, Raleigh, Nashville, and Houston saw the largest gains, while San Antonio, Charlotte, and the Inland Empire decreased from January. Builders Results Align with Trends in the Existing Home Market: Last week, Toll reported January orders rose 21% YOY following peers who had double digit order growth in the fourth quarter and highlighted a strong start to the year. This is in line with our new home channel checks, showing higher traffic and conversion levels, with some areas in the Southwest seeing demand at a 3-4 year highs. Growth is concentrated in the lower price points, as first time buyers enter the market and move-up buyers adjust for higher rates and home prices. Amanda Luper (212) amanda.luper@credit-suisse.com Rising Rates Fail to Derail the Housing Upturn: We expect the return of entry-level and first-time buyers to lead the housing cycle recovery. Our top picks are DHI, LEN and PHM. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-U.S ANALYSTS. U.S. Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

2 Executive Sum m ary: Dem and Expected to Outpace Supply Through the Spring February Rises 1pt Sequentially, to 48: Overall conditions were broadly inline with expectations for February with the majority of respondents looking for demand to exceed supply through the selling season. Rising rates and a lack of well-priced inventory are having a varied impact on buyer psyche; agents in some markets noted these factors motivating people and spurring heightened traffic and sales while others alluded to fatigue and frustration with the level of home price appreciation. That said, areas with greater relative affordability including Las Vegas, Nashville and Phoenix continue to realize in-migration driven by employment relocations and population shifts. Commentary suggests a strong 18 selling season with traffic levels at or above agents expectations in 1 out of the top markets: The Index rose 1+ points in 3 MSAs (Raleigh, Nashville and Houston), was down 5 to up 1 points in 8 (Dallas, Atlanta, Tampa, Washington DC, Jacksonville, Phoenix, Miami and New York-Northern NJ), and was down 5+ points in the remaining 9 (Orlando, Seattle, Las Vegas, Denver, Austin, Los Angeles, San Antonio, Charlotte and the Inland Empire). The inventory shortage remains the main constraint on closings with the lack of inventory most acute in entry-level price points. This comes as agents report multiple offers on affordable product and buyer willingness to move further out in the geographic periphery. Rises 6pts from January and Number of Listings Index Fell 6pts: Home prices rose in 24 of our 37 surveyed markets this month as the declining number of listings fuels continued home price appreciation. Realtors Provide On-the-Ground Read on Conditions: We survey local agents on a monthly basis in order to better gauge changes in supply and demand. Results are used to calculate a diffusion index, with a reading of 5+ indicating an improvement. <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month Note: Please see appendix for a detailed description of our survey and index calculation methodology. Source: Credit Suisse

3 February Top Market Sum m ary: Lack of Available Inventory and Rising Rates Motivate Buyers Buyer Traffic Index Prior Month Home Price Index Home Listings Index Sell Time Index Builder Incentives Index Top MSAs Agent Highlights 1 Raleigh, NC 83 (+48) (+19) 92 (+13) 42 (-3) 75 (-4) 5 (-7) Raleigh experienced a sharp increase in the buyer traffic index as warmer weather and the prospect of higher rates fueled buyer demand for homes. While traffic was strong, realtors noted that there continues to be a shortage of inventory in the sub $3K range. 2 Nashville, TN 56 (+16) 19(+17) 63 (+13) 63 (+23) 43 (+3) 19 (+9) In-migration and economic growth is driving strong traffic levels in Nashville. A shortage of inventory remains across price points, as prospective sellers with equity are choosing to stay put given the difficulty of finding a new home. 3 Houston, TX 55 (+13) 11(+8) 5 (+8) (-5) 7 (+8) 5 (+4) Realtors are continuing to see incremental demand from Hurricane Harvey come through contributing to higher traffic levels this month. Pentup demand remains in the region as rising rates has not yet affected buyer decision making on the ground. 4 Dallas, TX 57 (+7) 2(-2) 57 (-2) 5 (+9) 21 (-15) 29 (-8) Despite a rainy month, Dallas saw increased traffic as a strong local economy and job relocations continue to add to demand levels. Realtors noted rising interest rates are moving buyers off the fence and into contracts. 5 Atlanta, GA 46 (+7) 8(+3) 85 (+6) 5 (-11) 65 (+12) 35 (-4) The spring market is beginning to heat up in Atlanta with buyers looking to get ahead of rising rates. The shortage of quality inventory persists despite strong demand, though rising prices are beginning to cause sticker shock for new buyers entering the market. 6 Tampa, FL 42 (+7) 9(+3) 81 (+1) 81 (+1) 69 (+4) 54 (+9) Improved traffic levels this month resulted from job relocations and rising demand from snowbirds. Buyers sought to get ahead of rising rates though realtors do not expect higher rates to meaningfully impact the ability to qualify for mortgages. 7 Washington, DC 63 (+5) 14(+7) 59 (-1) 68 (-5) 65 (-5) 5 () Activity improved this month as realtors highlighted eagerness to get ahead of the spring selling season. Mortgage rates remain attractive though realtors expect continued increases could begin to weigh on demand. 8 Jacksonville, FL 38 (+4) 7(-1) 88 (+38) 75 (+33) 75 (+33) 38 (+13) The lack of available inventory pushed prices of existing homes higher and kept demand below agents' expectations. Realtors expect rising rates will not deter buyers as long as they can qualify. 9 Phoenix, AZ 5 (+2) 16(+7) 74 (+13) 76 (+14) 64 (+1) 48 () Relative affordability has contributed to further in-migration and population growth. The limited home supply alongside rising rates motivated buyers to make quicker purchasing decisions. 1 Miami, FL 26 () 17(+7) 54 (-4) 48 (+15) 35 (+19) 36 (+13) Though agents noted rate hikes encouraging buyers in the area, the lack of available inventory and elevated prices kept traffic levels below expectations. Further, realtors highlighted a continued decline in the number of foreign buyers. 11 New York-Northern NJ 28 (-4) 13(+2) 74 (+6) 67 (-5) 63 (+13) 57 (+1) Realtors cited minimal existing inventory, particularly at the entry-level price points, as the main traffic bottleneck. Moreover, agents remarked buyers appeared more cautious following the passage of tax reform. 12 Orlando, FL 31 (-6) 15(+3) 44 (-19) 44 (-13) 38 (+2) 69 (-1) With rates on the rise, buyer uncertainty caused an increase in the length of time needed to sell a home. Agents expect buyers will adjust their starting price ranges downward given the move in rates. 13 Seattle, WA 5 (-7) 6(-7) 88 (+14) 78 (+1) 68 (+4) 53 (+3) Despite commentary concerning rising prices and a lack of affordable inventory, traffic remained strong in Seattle with agents seeing multiple offers on all properties and demand outpacing supply. 14 Las Vegas, NV 54 (-7) 12(-2) 92 (-6) 62 (-12) 67 (+8) 5 (+5) Agents noted heightened in-migration from California with relative affordability attracting buyers to the area. Traffic remained above realtors' expectations as buyers sought to find deals ahead of the selling season and further rate movements. 15 Denver, CO 38 (-1) 18(+3) 79 (+22) 79 (-1) 5 (+2) 46 () Commentary overwhelmingly centered on critically low inventory levels supporting continued home price appreciation. Fundamental demand remains with buyers focused on the limited supply of homes rather than rising rates. 16 Austin, TX 5 (-11) 5(-11) 9 (+18) 55 (+5) 55 (+11) 45 (+23) In February, agents noted strong buyer confidence with rising rates creating a sense of urgency ahead of the spring. Multiple offers are the new normal as demand levels remain above supply. 17 Los Angeles, CA 31 (-15) 1(-7) 77 (+8) 58 (-4) 52 (+2) 53 (+15) The declined sequentially and remained below realtors' expectations as elevated prices and a shortage of quality inventory muted demand. That said, agents do not believe rate increases have impacted buyers' ability to qualify. 18 San Antonio, TX 67 (-17) 1(-17) (+25) 17 (-33) 67 (-17) 33 (+17) Contrary to the majority of the country, the number of listings in San Antonio increased this month though prices continue to rise. Demand stayed above agents' expectations with buyers rushing to purchase in advance of further rate movements. 19 Charlotte, NC 29 (-21) 3(-16) 83 (-7) 71 (+11) 5 () 5 () Traffic levels faltered this month as frustration over the lack of available inventory pushed demand below realtors' expectations. Prices rose sequentially in the area for the eighth consecutive month. Inland Empire, CA 25 (-31) 4(-16) 58 (-1) 58 (+1) 42 (-8) 58 (+1) While rising rates spurred some buyers to enter the market, elevated home prices kept demand below agents' expectations this month. Source: Credit Suisse Note: Markets ranked according to sequential change in buyer traffic index

4 Table of Contents Key Housing Markets: Key Housing Markets Continued: 5 Atlanta, Georgia 26 New York-Northern New Jersey 6 Austin, Texas 27 Orlando, Florida 7 Baltimore, Maryland 28 Philadelphia-Southern New Jersey 8 Boston, Massachusetts 29 Phoenix, Arizona 9 Charlotte, North Carolina 3 Portland, Oregon 1 Chicago, Illinois 31 Raleigh, North Carolina 11 Cincinnatti, OH 32 Sacramento, California 12 Dallas, Texas 33 San Antonio, Texas 13 Denver, Colorado 34 San Diego, California 14 Detroit, Michigan 35 San Francisco, California 15 Fort Myers, Florida 36 Sarasota, Florida 16 Houston, Texas 37 Seattle, Washington 17 Indianapolis, IN 38 Tampa, Florida 18 Inland Empire (Riverside-San Bernardino), California 39 Tucson, Arizona 19 Jacksonville, Florida Virginia Beach, Virginia Kansas City, Missouri 41 Washington, D.C. 21 Las Vegas, Nevada 22 Los Angeles, California 42 Appendix: 23 Miami, Florida 43 Historical Trends by Market 24 Minneapolis, Minnesota 48 Agent Recommendations 25 Nashville, Tennessee 5 Survey Methodology

5 Atlanta, GA % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... The was 46 up from 39 in January: Traffic increased sequentially ahead of the spring selling season as urgent buyers look to purchase before further rate hikes. The increased to 85 from 79 last month. Buyers are out there, but struggling to find a house for sale. Lack of quality listings. Buyers experiencing sticker shock. More urgency to buy and lock in rates before they rise. Low inventory levels are discouraging some buyers. Spring market beginning to heat up. 3 rd largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 22,931 % 69% 69% 1 D.R. Horton 3, % 7.2% 54% % 38% 38% 2 Century Communities 1,265 7.% 44.8% % 31% 31% 31% 31% 3 Lennar Corp. 1,1 5.6% 2.5% % 8% % % 4 PulteGroup % 4.3% % 5 Smith Douglas Communities % 6 Taylor Morrison % 7.2% 7 Wilson Parker Homes % 8 Rocklyn Homes % 9 Ashton Woods Homes % Top 9 Totals 8, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 5 Top Builders 16 Market Share Atlanta as a % of Total

6 Austin, TX <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month % How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 9% % 7% % 5% 5% % 3% 3% % % % % 1% 1% % % The lowered to 5 from 61 last month: Traffic levels met agents expectations despite continued home price appreciation. The rose to 9 from 72 last month. More buyers than homes with multiple listings the norm. Strong February given stable oil prices and interest rates creating a sense of urgency. Higher rates getting buyers of the fence in the short-term though it could dampen longer-term demand. Homes becoming unaffordable for the middle working class. Buyer confidence is still strong. 5 th largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 13,9 Top Builders 16 Market Share Austin as a % of Total 1 D.R. Horton 2, % 5.2% 2 Lennar Corp. 1, % 3.8% 3 KB Home 1,56 8.% 1.7% 4 Milestone Community Builders % 5 PulteGroup % 3.9% 6 Pacesetter Homes 4 3.5% 7 Gehan Homes % 8 Taylor Morrison % 5.1% 9 Castlerock Communities % Top 9 Totals 7,95.2% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 6

7 Baltimore, MD % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... % The rose to 83 from 67 last month: A mild winter spurred higher than usual traffic in February. The increased to 83 from 5 last month. Realtors marketing ahead of the spring market. Buyers coming out before the true start of the selling season. Milder than normal winter. 33 rd largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 4,697 1 NVR 1, % 8.3% % 67% 67% 67% 2 Lennar Corp % 1.3% 3 Beazer Homes % 6.8% % M.D.C. % 33% 33% 33% 4 Holdings/Richmond % % American Homes % % % % % % 5 Hovnanian Enterprises % 6 Bob Ward Companies % 2.% 7 The Bozzuto Group % 8 Toll Brothers % 1.5% 9 D.R. Horton %.2% Top 9 Totals 2, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 7 Top Builders 16 Market Share Baltimore as a % of Total

8 Boston, MA <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month The increased to from 39 in January. The rose to 9 from 77 last month: An inventory shortage is fueling the continued rise in home prices. Lack of realistically priced inventory. Desperate buyers searching for a home amidst an inventory shortage. Pre-spring buyers starting to get out again. An estimated 1% of the buyer pool, frustrated by the lack of inventory will continue to rent long-term. 32 nd largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 5,268 Market Boston as a % Top Builders How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days Share of Total % 93% 1 PulteGroup % 1.5% % 2 Brendon Properties 9 2.5% % 3 Toll Brothers % 1.4% % 53% 47% 47% 4 Chinburg Builders % % 33% Lewis Builders % % % Development % 7% % % % 6 Valle Group 37 1.% % 7 A & M Land Corp 36 1.% Katz Development % Corp. 8 Keystone Builders 35 1.% 1 Thorndike Development 3.8% Top 1 Totals % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 8

9 Charlotte, NC % 83% <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 71% 71% The dropped to 29 from 5 last month: Demand fell below agents expectations with buyers frustrated at the lack of available inventory. The fell to 83 from 9 last month. Lack of inventory and higher interest rates. Low inventory continues to drive demand. Potentially rising rates has pushed some buyers to get more serious. Rising rates may have dampened traffic but we will wait to see the impact on the high demand spring season. 8 th largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 12,989 % 57% 1 Lennar Corp. 1, % 4.4% % 2 True Homes 1,57 1.5% % 29% 17% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 3 D.R. Horton % 2.2% % % 4 PulteGroup % 4.% % 5 NVR % 4.% 6 AV Homes % 22.6% 7 M/I Homes 4 4.6% 1.3% 8 Meritage Homes % 5.7% 9 Eastwood Homes % Top 9 Totals 6, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 9 Top Builders 16 Market Share Charlotte as a % of Total

10 Chicago, IL <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month The decreased slightly to 29 from 31 in January: Bitter cold alongside the gradual impact from tax reform is discouraging home purchases in Illinois. The increased to 67 from 55 in the prior month. Brutal weather, low inventory. First-time buyers coming out. Limited inventory but low and middle end markets are moving right along. Proactive buyers getting a head start on the spring market. So far, negligible impact from rates. New tax plan disincentives home purchases in Illinois. 23 rd largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 8,118 Market Chicago as a % Top Builders How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days Share of Total % 9% 1 D.R. Horton % 1.5% % 2 Lennar Corp % 1.5% 57% 3 M/I Homes % 8.8% % 38% 43% 45% 4 PulteGroup % 1.8% % 29% 29% 3% 25% 5 Olthof Homes % % 5% 5% 5% 6 Hovnanian Enterprises % 4.3% % 7 NVR % 1.% Providence Real 8 Estate Development % 9 Edward R. James Homes 15 2.% 1 Lexington Homes % Top 1 Totals 3, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 1

11 Cincinnati, OH <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month The rose to from 36 last month: Amidst a tight supply environment, buyers looked to get ahead of rising rates, prices and competition. The rose to 9 from 75 last month. Anxious buyers looking to beat further increases in interest rates. Due to inventory shortage, buyers must be intentional about finding what they want. Buyers starting to emerge. Rates rising will only be a problem if buyers start looking before getting pre-qualified by a lender. 16 single family permits: 3,932 % % % % % % How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... % % % % % % % % % % % % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 11

12 Dallas, TX % % % % % 43% 29% <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 57% 43% 43% 29% 29% 29% 57% 43% The rose to 57 from 5 last month: Agents pointed to a strong local economy and rising rates motivating buyers to close on homes. The ticked down to 57 from 59. Rising interest rates are moving buyers off the fence and into contracts. People relocating to the area for jobs. Higher rates have increased demand initially. Cold and rain have kept potential buyers from touring regularly, but they are buying when they go out. Largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 29,846 % % 6 First Texas Homes % % Hovnanian % Enterprises 13.2% HistoryMaker 8 2.9% Homes 9 LGI Homes % 19.% 1 Megatel Homes % Top 1 Totals 13, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 12 Top Builders 16 Market Share Dallas as a % of Total 1 D.R. Horton 4,3 15.7% 1.4% 2 Highland Homes 1, % 3 Lennar Corp. 1, % 3.2% 4 PulteGroup 1,53 3.8% 5.3% 5 Bloomfield Homes 1,29 3.7%

13 Denver, CO % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 83% The fell to 38 from 48 last month: The increased to 79 from 57 last month: Critically low inventory levels support sequential price appreciation. Historically low inventory and extreme price increases. Lack of inventory more buyers than properties. With a large number of buyers ready and able to buy so few homes, it is unlikely they will care about rates. Demand is still there, but rising rates could create a lower level of affordability. Prices are high and inventory is low. 12 th largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 1,211 % 1 Lennar Corp. 1, % 3.7% 63% 63% % 5% 2 M.D.C. Holdings 1, % 22.6% % 33% 33% Century 25% 25% % 13% Communities 23.4% % 4% 4% 4% 4 Oakwood Homes % % 5 KB Home 5 6.4% 5.5% 6 Meritage Homes % 4.3% 7 Shea Homes % 8 D.R. Horton %.7% 9 Taylor Morrison % 3.2% Top 9 Totals 5, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 13 Top Builders 16 Market Share Denver as a % of Total

14 Detroit, MI <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month The fell to 17 from 37 last month: Agents saw sequentially lower traffic levels resulting from poor weather, rising prices and limited quality inventory. The rose to 67 from 5 last month. Weather conditions have kept potential buyers from looking at properties. More buyers than sellers lack of viable inventory. Buyers priced out of the move-up market. Additional competition for limited inventory and current high prices have dampened buyer traffic. No impact from rising rates yet. 39 th largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 5,728 Market Detroit as a % Top Builders How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days Share of Total % 1 PulteGroup 611.2% 3.1% 82% % 2 Lombardo Homes % 58% 3 MJC Cos % % 5% 5% 42% 4 Pinnacle Homes % % 33% 25% 25% Robertson Brothers % % 8% 8% 9% 9% Corp. % 6 Infinity Homes % 7 Toll Brothers % 1.8% 8 Clearview Homes % 9 Hunter Pasteur Homes % 1 Triangle Development % Top 1 Totals 1, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 14

15 Fort Myers, FL <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month The was flat at 67 this month: Demand stayed above agents expectations with buyers undeterred by the prospect of rising rates. The was unchanged this month at 67. Buyers are optimistic and plentiful. Snowbirds out and looking for properties. Possible demand benefit from tax code changes. Small rate increase does not appear to be having a material effect on demand or on buyers ability to qualify. 36 th largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 4,92 Market Ft. Myers as a % Top Builders How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days Share of Total % 1 D.R. Horton 692.8% 1.7% % 67% 67% 2 Lennar Corp % 1.2% % 3 PulteGroup % 2.4% 44% 44% 44% % 33% 33% 33% 4 WCI Communities % 34.5% 22% 5 GL Homes % % 11% % % 6 LGI Homes % 4.4% % Neal Communities of % Southwest Florida 8 Adams Homes % 9 Stock Development 1 3.6% 1 Taylor Morrison % 1.5% Top 1 Totals 2, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 15

16 Houston, TX 1% % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... % % % 5% % The rose to 55 from 42 last month: The emergence of pent-up demand drove traffic above agents expectations in February. The increased to 5 from 42 in the prior month. Pent-up demand. Limited effect of rising rates so far though first-time buyers may have more difficulty qualifying. Still seeing incremental demand resulting from Hurricane Harvey. 2 nd largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 35,397 % % % % 4 Hovnanian Enterprises 1, % 22.% % 1% % % 5 Long Lake Limited 1, % % 6 Taylor Morrison % 14.7% 4 KB Home % 1.1% 8 PulteGroup % 4.4% 9 Beazer Homes % 15.% 1 Meritage Homes 5 3.2% 1.9% Top 1 Totals 13, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 16 Top Builders 16 Market Share Houston as a % of Total 1 D.R. Horton 2, % 6.5% 2 Lennar Corp. 2, % 5.7% 3 Perry Homes 1, %

17 Indianapolis, IN The rose to 17 from 13 last month. <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations The increased to 83 from 63 in the prior month: Limited available inventory translated into the sixth consecutive month of sequential home price appreciation. Low inventory. Improved weather. No effect from rising rates on buyers ability to qualify for homes. <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... % % % % % 67% % % 33% % % % % % % % % % 26 th largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 5,643 Top Builders 16 Market Share Indianapolis as a % of Total 1 Arbor Homes % 2 PulteGroup % 3.6% 3 Lennar Corp % 1.8% 4 M/I Homes % 8.5% 5 Westport Homes % 6 The Fischer Group % 7 Beazer Homes % 4.3% 8 NVR % 1.% 9 David Weekley Homes % 1 Davis Building Group % Top 1 Totals 3, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 17

18 Inland Empire, CA % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 83% The fell to 25 from 56 last month: The lowered to 58 from 69 in the prior month: While the rate of appreciation slowed, home prices rose sequentially for the fifth consecutive month. Further price increases. Potentially rising rates are spurring buyers to jump into the market. 16 th largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 7,93 % 1 Lennar Corp. 2, % 5.% % 5% 5% 5% 2 D.R. Horton 1, % 2.6% % 33% 33% 33% 3 KB Home % 8.5% 17% 17% 17% 17% % % 4 TRI Pointe Group % 18.% % 5 PulteGroup % 1.7% 6 Frontier Communities % 7 Woodside Homes % 8 Meritage Homes % 3.6% 9 Brookfield Homes % Top 9 Totals 6,188.9% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 18 Top Builders 16 Market Share Inland Empire as a % of Total

19 Jacksonville, FL <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations The increased to 38 from 33 last month: Agents noted a limited supply of homes driving prices higher in February. The lifted to 88 from 5 in the prior month. Smaller inventory and higher prices. If buyers can qualify, they will still purchase. % <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... th largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 8,499 75% 75% 1 D.R. Horton 1, % 3.8% % 5% 5% 5% 5% Dream Finders % % Homes % 25% 25% 3 Lennar Corp % 1.9% % % % % % 4 Mattamy Homes % % 5 KB Home % 3.9% 6 PulteGroup % 1.9% David Weekley 7 Homes % 8 M.D.C. Holdings % 4.2% 9 ICI Homes % Top 9 Totals 5, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 19 Top Builders 16 Market Share Jacksonville as a % of Total

20 Kansas City, MO The ticked upward to 7 from 67 in the prior month: Job growth in the area pushed demand above agents expectations as we enter the selling season. The increased to from 75 last month. <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month Low inventory, rising prices. Spring is in the air. Job growth is leading to housing demand. Potentially rising rates has not impacted demand. 34 th largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 5,248 How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Top Builders 16 Market Share 1 Summit Custom Homes % 2 Rodrock Homes % 3 James Engle Custom Homes % 4 Hearthside Homes of Kansas City % 4 Don Julian Builders % 6 Prieb Homes % 7 Randy Sallee Custom Homes 2.3% 8 Robertson Construction % 9 SAB Construction 1.7% 1 Integrity Homebuilders % Top 1 Totals % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide

21 Las Vegas, NV % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 83% 17% % 8% 62% 31% 33% % 67% 69% 15% 15% The fell to 54 from 61 last month ; Despite the sequential decline, relative affordability compared to coastal areas continues to drive traffic above agents expectations for the season. The lowered to 92 from 97 in January. Buyers out early to find a deal ahead of the spring price bump. Increased interest rates has not deterred buyers. Escalating new home prices and a rising number of new home communities. Limited amount of desirable and affordable existing inventory. Continued in-migration of buyers from California. 18 th largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 8,5 7 Century Communities 8 5.4% 14.4% 8 American West Homes % 9 Woodside Homes % Top 9 Totals 6, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 21 Top Builders 16 Market Share Las Vegas as a % of Total 1 Lennar Corp. 1, % 4.% 2 D.R. Horton 1, % 2.6% 3 KB Home % 8.6% 4 M.D.C. Holdings % 13.5% 5 PulteGroup % 2.9% 6 TRI Pointe Group 4 6.1% 1.9%

22 Los Angeles, CA % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... The declined to 31 from 46 in the prior month. The rose to 77 from 69: Inflated home prices and lack of quality available inventory are constraining demand levels. Shortage of inventory. Higher prices and higher rates. Rates have not gone up enough to affect buyers ability. Inflated home prices in tandem with higher interest rates has made buyers wary of how much debt they can absorb. Inventory constraints continue to drive the market. High taxes, stagnant wages and job uncertainty. 17 th largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 9,37 74% % 58% 63% 1 Lennar Corp. 1, % 2.8% % 38% 42% 2 The Irvine Co % 33% % 25% 17% 21% 3 KB Home % 5.5% 11% 16% % 4% 4 Toll Brothers 4 5.3% 6.4% % 5 Brookfield Homes % California Pacific % Homes 7 William Lyon Homes % 1.% 8 City Ventures % 9 Taylor Morrison % 3.6% Top 9 Totals 4,1 54.6% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 22 Top Builders 16 Market Share Los Angeles as a % of Total

23 Miami, FL % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... The remained unchanged at 26: Demand stayed below agents expectations with few affordable homes on the market and a declining number of foreign buyers. The fell to 54 from 58 last month. Slow beginning of February, but seeing activity now. Low and overpriced inventory. Loss of many foreign buyers. Rising rates getting buyers off the fence. Higher rates are a looming threat. Rate hikes are encouraging buyers but there is no affordable inventory in the area. 11 th largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 6,688 % 1 Lennar Corp. 2, % 6.7% % 36% 36% 42% 46% 41% 45% 2 GL Homes % 36% % 28% 32% 32% 3 D.R. Horton % 1.5% % 13% 14% 4 The Related Group % % 5 Codina Group % Newgard % Development Group 7 Rilea Group % 8 Swire Properties % 9 Key International % Top 9 Totals 6, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 23 Top Builders 16 Market Share Miami - Ft. Lauderdale as a % of Total

24 Minneapolis, MN % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 75% 25% % 8% 33% 58% 17% % 83% 8% 83% 8% The was 64 this month up from 57: Rising rates are creating a sense of urgency among buyers, with the greatest demand seen in the lower price points. The rose to 88 from 73 last month. Better weather, rising rates and beginning of the spring parade of homes. Lack of inventory will create high traffic on good product. Rising rates adds more demand for lower priced homes which are few and far between. Seeing urgency from buyers in the marketplace. Starting to notice the lowering of qualifying amounts. 25 th largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 7,761 9 Hovnanian Enterprises % 2.% Top 9 Totals 2, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 24 Top Builders 16 Market Share Minneapolis as a % of Total 1 Lennar Corp. 1,78 21.% 2.6% 2 PulteGroup % 1.9% 3 D.R. Horton %.8% 4 Mattamy Homes % 5 Centra Homes % 6 M/I Homes % 3.2% 7 Capstone Homes 1 2.7% 8 Robert Thomas Homes %

25 Nashville, TN <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month The rose to 56 from last month: Buyer traffic returned to exceed realtors expectations as inmigration supports fundamental housing demand. The increased to 63 from 5 in January. Few homes on the market in the price range under $3k. Sellers would love to capitalize on their equity however not seeing any current homes available to purchase. Increased population and economic growth. 13 th largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 12,14 Market Nashville as a % Top 1 Builders How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days Share of Total % 1 Ole South Properties % 75% 75% % 57% 63% 2 NVR 4 5.8% 3.2% % 3 Goodall Homes % 38% % 25% 25% 29% 4 Regent Homes % 14% % % % % The Jones Co. of % % Tennesee 6 Beazer Homes % 5.5% 7 PulteGroup % 1.2% 8 D.R. Horton %.6% 9 Meritage Homes % 3.% 1 Signature Homes % Top 1 Totals 3, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 25

26 New York Northern NJ % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 71% 52% 57% 55% 45% 35% 23% % 21% 1% 3% 7% The ticked down to 28 from 32 in the prior month: The lack of inventory coupled with persistent price increases has discouraged buyers. The rose to 74 from 68 last month. Higher prices and low inventory especially for starter homes. Minimal inventory, particularly in the first-time buyer price range. Tax law changes are motivating the average home seeker to move out of New York. Buyers are more cautious with many going all cash and purchasing less expensive homes. 1 th largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 9,987 Top Builders 16 Market Share NY - Northern NJ - Long Island as a % of Total 1 Toll Brothers % 1.7% 2 Hovnanian Enterprises % 7.5% 3 PulteGroup % 2.1% 4 Lennar Corp %.8% 5 The Beechwood Organization % 6 HFZ Capital Group % 7 The Related Cos % 8 NVR % 1.2% 9 Rudin Family and Global Holdings % 1 Atzei Tymurim Gardens % Top 1 Totals 2, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 26

27 Orlando, FL % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 63% 63% 5% 38% 38% 38% 38% 25% 25% 13% 13% % The fell to 31 from 38 last month: Demand remained below realtors expectations in February as many noted an increase in the time needed to sell a home. The declined to 44 from 63 in the prior month. Interest rates change the price range buyers can afford. New construction prices are on the rise. Increasing mortgage rates. 7 th largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 14,8 Top Builders 16 Market Share Orlando as a % of Total 1 Lennar Corp. 2,3.9% 5.7% 2 D.R. Horton % 2.1% 3 The Villages of Lake Sumter % 4 Meritage Homes % 1.4% 5 AV Homes 7 6.4% 29.2% 6 PulteGroup % 3.2% 7 Mattamy Homes % 8 Taylor Morrison % 6.8% 9 Ashton Woods Homes % Top 9 Totals 7, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 27

28 Philadelphia Southern NJ % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 5% 5% % 7% 29% 64% 57% 55% 43% 27% 18% % The was unchanged at 46: Buyers are motivated to purchase by the prospect of rising rates, though some are being forced to consider more peripheral areas. The came in higher at 75 vs. 65 last month. Normal spring activity beginning to build. Competitive bidding for existing inventory out in the market. As rates move upward, the initial response among buyers is to act more quickly. Slight uptick in interest rates has buyers moving from the sidelines to purchasing. Buyers forced to consider more peripheral locations. 21 st largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 6,8 % 5 Hovnanian Enterprises 1 3.% 2.5% 6 Blenheim Homes 1 2.6% 7 W.B. Homes % 8 Judd Builders and Developers % 9 T.H. Properties % Top 9 Totals 2, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 28 Top Builders 16 Market Share Philadelphia as a % of Total 1 NVR 1, % 7.7% 2 Toll Brothers % 9.% 3 Lennar Corp % 1.% 4 D.R. Horton 7 3.9%.5%

29 Phoenix, AZ % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 75% The ticked up to 5 from 48 last month: Activity met realtors expectations in February as climbing interest rates and limited supply fuel pent-up demand. The rose to 74 from last month. With housing supply at record lows, traffic seems busy for the time of year. Lower supply, pent-up demand, climbing interest rates. Jump in rates has pushed on the fence buyers. Arizona job growth is leading to an expanding population alongside disasters in California. A slow, steady rate increase is expected. 4 th largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 18,577 % 48% 52% 57% 1 Lennar Corp. 1, % 4.3% % 52% 38% 38% 2 PulteGroup 1, % 5.7% % 5% 1% 15% 1% 3 Taylor Morrison % 13.5% % % 4 D.R. Horton % 2.3% % 5 Meritage Homes % 13.% 6 Shea Homes % 7 KB Home % 5.8% 8 Fulton Homes % 9 M.D.C. Holdings % 1.5% Top 9 Totals 8, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 29 Top Builders 16 Market Share Phoenix as a % of Total

30 Portland, OR % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 54% 46% 46% 38% 36% 36% 29% 15% % 7% 93% % The increased to 46 from 39 last month: Traffic levels rose sequentially as buyers look to close on homes ahead of the spring selling season and rising rates. The rose slightly to 77 from 75 in the prior month. Buyer frustration over lack of inventory. Buyers trying to get ahead of the spring season. Potential buyers motivated by the fear of rising rates. Rising rates has pushed buyers at the lower end of the market to move more quickly. No impact on buyers ability to qualify yet, but the next round of increases could make a difference. 24 th largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 7,344 Top Builders Market Portland as a % 16 Share of Total 1 D.R. Horton % 2.% 2 William Lyon Homes % 25.7% 3 Lennar Corp %.8% 4 New Tradition Homes % 5 Pacific Lifestyle Homes % 6 Manor Homes % 7 Hoyt Street Properties % 8 Urban NW Homes % 9 Stonebridge Homes % 1 Renaissance Custom Homes % Top 1 Totals 2, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 3

31 Raleigh, NC <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month The rose to 83 from 36 last month: Agents saw an increase in demand as warm weather and the prospect of rising rates had buyers out and looking. The was higher at 92 vs. 79 last month. Low inventory under $3k. Seasonal increase as February begins the spring buying season in earnest. Warm weather drawing buyers back out. Rising rates causing an initial increase in demand. More buyers purchasing before rates move higher. 19 th largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 9,435 Market Raleigh as a % Top Builders How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days Share of Total % 83% 1 Lennar Corp. 1, % 2.8% % 67% 67% 2 PulteGroup % 2.4% % 5% 3 M/I Homes % 9.2% 33% % 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 4 Dan Ryan Builders 6 5.6% % % Royal Oaks Building % % Group 6 KB Home % 2.1% 7 D.R. Horton %.5% 8 Wade Jurney Homes 8 2.9% 9 Beazer Homes % 3.6% Top 9 Totals 3, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 31

32 Sacramento, CA % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 75% 9% The increased to 58 from 54 last month: Limited home supply and fear of further rising interest rates kept buyer traffic above agents expectations. The remained unchanged at 75. Low inventory and fear of rising interest rates. Lack of available inventory, rising rates and rising rents. Demand is still high though increased rates have forced some buyers to lower their expectations. Rate increases has not changed qualifying, but has impacted buyers desire to pay higher prices. 28 th largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 6,148 % 1 Lennar Corp. 1, % 2.6% % 5% 5% 2 Taylor Morrison % 5.7% 33% 33% 33% % 17% 3 D.R. Horton %.9% % 8% 1% % % 4 KB Home % 2.6% % 5 JMC Homes % 6 Elliott Homes % 7 Meritage Homes % 3.2% 8 PulteGroup % 1.1% 9 Hovnanian Enterprises % 3.4% Top 9 Totals 3, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 32 Top Builders 16 Market Share Sacramento as a % of Total

33 San Antonio, TX 1 <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... % The lowered to 67 from 83 in the prior month. The hit, up from 75 last month: Prices rose despite agents reporting an increase in the number of listings on the market in February. Buyers are rushing to purchase in advance of rate hikes. More homes on the market, but prices still rising. Critically short inventory of affordable homes. Steady activity. 9 th largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 6,441 % 1 D.R. Horton 1, % 4.2% % 67% 67% 67% 2 KB Home % 9.7% % 3 PulteGroup % 4.2% % 33% 33% 33% 4 Lennar Corp % 1.5% 5 Meritage Homes % 6.5% % % % % % % 6 Chesmar Homes % % 7 Armadillo Homes % 8 LGI Homes % 8.2% 9 David Weekley Homes % 1 Perry Homes % Top 1 Totals 6, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 33 Top Builders 16 Market Share San Antonio as a % of Total

34 San Diego, CA % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 44% 5% 47% 47% 6% 7% 25% 56% 19% % 71% 29% The moved upward to 44 from 41. The rose to 69 from 63 last month. The persistent inventory shortage continues to push prices higher for the 8 th consecutive month. Inventory shortages and rising prices. Discouraged buyers as median family income is not sufficient to qualify for a medium priced home. No impact from rates yet, but further rises will price some out of the market. When rates tick up, buyers tend to think they must act now or they will miss out. 48 th largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 2,341 Top 9 Totals 1, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 34 Top Builders 16 Market Share San Diego as a % of Total 1 Lennar Corp % 1.8% 2 TRI Pointe Group % 7.1% 3 KB Home % 1.9% 4 Baldwin & Sons % 5 Shea Homes % 6 Taylor Morrison % 1.9% 7 New Pointe Communities % 8 D.R. Horton %.2% 9 Cornerstone Communities %

35 San Francisco, CA % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 77% The lifted to 7 from 66: Demand continues to outpace supply with a rising number of buyers looking to purchase ahead of further price and rate increases. The fell to 73 from 81 last month. High consumer confidence and continued reduction in inventory. Panic buying ahead of further interest rate increases. More buyers than sellers, leading to high prices. Lack of inventory is the big issue constraining closings. Buyers are afraid of rates jumping. 22 nd largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 4,927 % 1 Lennar Corp % 1.4% % 53% 53% % 2 Toll Brothers % 7.8% % % % 27% 23% 3 Tishman Speyer % 13% % 7% 7% % 4 KB Home % 4.% % 5 Shea Homes % A.D. Seeno % Construction Co. 7 TRI Pointe Group % 5.5% 8 PulteGroup % 1.1% 9 Oyster Development % Top 9 Totals 3, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 35 Top Builders 16 Market Share San Francisco as a % of Total

36 Sarasota, FL <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month The Buyer Traffic index moved up to from 3 last month. The was unchanged at 5: Home prices remained flat sequentially perhaps encouraging further snowbird traffic. Typically busy time of year due to snowbird traffic. Low inventory and overpriced properties. If rates continue to move upward it will further depress firsttime and entry-level buyers. 27 th largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 5,821 How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... % % 1 Lennar Corp % 2.1% % % % % Neal Communities of % % % Southwest Florida % % % % % % 3 D.R. Horton % 1.9% % 4 PulteGroup % 3.1% % % 5 WCI Communities % 46.% 6 Taylor Morrison % 4.8% 7 Mattamy Homes % 8 Medallion Homes % 9 M/I Homes 1.3% 1.3% Top 9 Totals 4, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 36 Top Builders 16 Market Share Sarasota as a % of Total

37 Seattle, WA % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... % 15% 5% % 35% 32% 16% 5% 53% 11% 74% 16% The fell to 5 from 57 last month: Despite the sequential decline, demand met realtors expectations with mild weather and rising rates motivating buyers ahead of the selling season. The rose to 88 from 73 last month. Not enough homes to meet buyer demand. Rising rates and high employment encouraging traffic. Mild weather and pent-up demand. Rates will only slow the market if they rise too high too fast. Seeing multiple offers on everything. No affordable housing left in Seattle or main suburbs. 15 th largest market in the country 16 single family permits: 9,396 Top Builders Market Seattle as a % 16 Share of Total 1 D.R. Horton % 2.3% 2 Bosa Development % 3 M.D.C. Holdings % 6.5% 4 Lennar Corp %.8% 5 Toll Brothers % 4.7% % 6 William Lyon Homes % 1.4% 7 Mainvue Homes 2 3.4% 8 TRI Pointe Group % 5.9% 9 PulteGroup %.9% 1 Cornerstone Homes % Top 1 Totals 3, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 37