Monthly Survey of Real Estate Agents March 2019

Transcription

1 Monthly Survey of Real Estate Agents March 19 April 11, 19 Susan Maklari Analyst (212) Christopher Kalata (212) Amanda Luper (212) Starting in the Triple Threat Position: In order to better assess conditions across the largest housing markets in the US, we surveyed ~45 real estate agents. Our March declined 3pts YOY to 47. This was up 1pts sequentially and is in-line with the historical average for the month. Across geographies, agents cited a renewed sense of optimism as the combination of 1) easing rates, 2) improved weather and 3) increased inventory drove buyers return to the market. Consistent with builder commentary, most anticipate healthy demand holding through the spring although levels are likely to remain below the robust activity seen last year. Regionally, Austin, Seattle and Charlotte saw the largest traffic gains while Washington DC, Phoenix and Jacksonville declined YOY. Putting Pricing on the Board: Our declined 21pts year over year, but increased 6pts from February to 57, indicating sequential appreciation. This comes despite a rise in existing home inventory, although affordable supply remains constrained. Some respondents cited lingering buyer hesitation over purchasing, reflected in our Time to Sell Index 8pts below the month s average, though up 8pts sequentially. Continuing the positive trend, incentives returned to more normalized levels following several months of heightened offerings. Housing Cycle in the Mid-to-Latter Stages: We look for moderating growth to be driven by entry-level and first-time buyer demand. Our Outperform rated names are DHI and PHM. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-U.S ANALYSTS. U.S. Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

2 Executive Summary: All the Right Moves March Down 3pts YOY to 47: This month s reading rose 1pts sequentially and matched the long-term historical average for March. Results reflect the combination of easing rates, improved weather and increased inventory motivating buyers to return to the market. Despite some lingering hesitation to purchase (in hopes of moderating pricing), the majority of agents across geographies reported a renewed sense of optimism. Most anticipate this healthy demand holding through the spring, although levels are likely to remain below the robust activity seen last year. This is in-line with commentary from several builders who have seen sequential traffic improvement, but look for the sales pace to track closer to 17. Consistent with trends, demand is outpacing supply at the more affordable price points with agents citing an uptick in competition for homes below ~$3k. levels at or above agents expectations in 5 out of the top * m arkets (vs 1 last year and 7 last m onth): The Index was up 1+ points YOY in 6 MSAs (Austin, Seattle, Charlotte, Miami, Nashville and Denver) Was up 1 to down 5 points YOY in 3 (San Antonio, Orlando and Tampa) Was down 5+ points YOY in the remaining 1 (Las Vegas, New York Northern NJ, Raleigh, Houston, Los Angeles, Dallas, Atlanta, Washington DC, Phoenix and Jacksonville). Hom e Price Index Down 21pts YOY to 57: The majority of our agents saw a sequential increase in home prices, with the Index up 6pts from February. This comes despite a rise in existing home inventory, though levels are consistent with last month and we note supply at the entry-level remains constrained. Prices rose year over year in 5 of our surveyed MSAs (vs three last month). Days on market elongated with our Time to Sell Index at, down 21pts year over year (though +8pts sequentially) and 8pts below the long-term historical average for the month. Notably, incentives returned to more normalized levels following several months of heightened offerings. Realtors Provide On-the-Ground Read on Conditions: We survey local agents on a monthly basis in order to better gauge changes in supply and demand. Results are used to calculate a diffusion index, with a reading of 5+ indicating an improvement. <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month (*) Note: the Inland Empire was excluded from our top market summary this month due to lack of respondents Please see appendix for a detailed description of our survey and index calculation methodology. Source: Credit Suisse

3 March Top Summary Top MSAs Prior Month Buyer Index Home Price Index Home Index Note: Inland Empire excluded from this month s survey due to lack of respondents; s ranked according to YOY change in Sell Time Index Builder Incentives Index 1 Austin, TX 6(+5) 88 (+38) 63 (-38) 75 (+36) 5 (-11) 5 (+11) 2 Seattle, WA 11(+9) 54 (+21) 61 (-27) 37 (-37) 52 (-15) 48 (+4) 3 Charlotte, NC 1(-2) 44 (+16) 67 (-26) 39 (-33) 39 (-25) 39 (+3) 4 Miami, FL 9(+5) 46 (+16) 41 (-7) 1 (-31) 3 (-2) 5 (+9) 5 Nashville, TN 1(+5) 38 (+16) 63 (+5) 5 () 25 (+4) 33 (+5) 6 Denver, CO 5(-1) 58 (+13) 5 (-33) 8 (-5) 42 () 33 (-8) 7 San Antonio, TX 8(+1) 67 (+7) (+1) 33 (-17) 5 (-) 33 (-7) 8 Orlando, FL 12(+4) 45 (+5) 72 (+12) 44 (-16) 44 (-1) 33 (-32) 9 Tampa, FL 7(-2) (-3) (-33) 5 (-36) 13 (-59) 5 () 1 Las Vegas, NV 16(+6) 3 (-8) 3 (-67) (-49) 1 (-52) (-4) 11 New York-Northern NJ 3(-8) 36 (-1) 59 (-8) 38 (-19) 5 () 5 () 12 Raleigh, NC 14(+2) 5 (-17) 65 (-27) (-35) (-15) 45 (-5) 13 Houston, TX 15(+2) 38 (-17) 13 (-5) 25 (-48) 25 (-38) 13 (-33) 14 Los Angeles, CA 13(-1) 3 (-) 22 (-1) 22 (-35) 6 (-49) 19 (-25) 15 Dallas, TX 19(+4) (-) 39 (-41) (-) 15 (-25) 33 (-7) 16 Atlanta, GA 4(-12) 36 (-21) 69 (-17) 28 (-) 42 (-29) 39 (+13) 17 Washington, DC (+3) 44 (-21) 56 (-13) 44 (-27) 39 (-28) 38 (-13) 18 Phoenix, AZ 18(+) 38 (-32) 66 (-8) 37 (-52) 34 (-39) 5 () 19 Jacksonville, FL 2(-17) 33 (-42) 83 (+21) 33 (-17) 5 (-13) 5 (-6) Agent Highlights increased 38pts sequentially and YOY as agents saw a robust market driven by activity at the more affordable price points. Lower inventory combined with the move-down in rates has led to heightened competition for homes. We also note continued in-migration to the MSA. Demand increased above agents' expectations as better weather, lower rates and rising inventory levels motivated buyers. Agents anticipate overall selling season activity to be similar to slightly less robust than last year. Although additional homes are coming onto the market, demand is outpacing supply - especially at the entry-level price points. Realtors saw prices up sequentially for the third consecutive month. Our rose to its highest level (at 46) since our survey's initiation. This comes as easing rates and several months of pricing deceleration alongside an uptick in supply have brought buyers back to the market. Demand was higher year over year as dryer weather (vs incessant rain in Feb) and lower rates motived buyers. Reflecting this, all agents cited open house traffic consistent with expectations. The majority of agents (83%) noted an increase in the number of listings this month. Commentary centered on lower rates and warmer weather driving the uptick in traffic. We highlight buyers willing to move further into the geographic periphery to meet affordability constraints. Activity held above expectations for the third consecutive month given better weather, lower mortage rates and persistent inmigration. Notably, all of our respondents saw prices increase sequentially. Although demand remained below expectations, our Index increased sequentially and year over year as snowbirds make their last efforts to purchase before heading home for the season. Inventory levels are holding tight, supporting home price appreciation in the area. Agents saw Florida's peak season lasting longer than anticipated, but this comes as the majority (75%) cited elongated days on market. Home prices continue to appreciate but the pace is more moderate vs 18. held below expectations as realtors reported buyers lacking urgency and adopting a "wait and see" approach. We note the majority saw the time needed to sell a home lengthen, likely given the increase in available homes on the market. Despite activity down year over year, realtors cited competition at the entry-level and properties moving at the more affordable price points. In turn, buyers are out and looking but lack a sense of urgency in purchasing. Demand met agents' expectations given better weather, job relocations and lower rates. The inventory shortage persists with respondents noting high demand for affordable properties and buyers needing to move quickly on homes <$k. Although still below expectations, traffic ticked up slightly vs February given lower rates and continued corporate relocations. Notably, 75% of agents cited heightened incentives in the market this month. Prospective buyers are out and looking but many are awaiting further price deceleration and closings are constrained by the lack of available inventory. We highlight the majority (89%) saw an increase in the length of time needed to sell. Home prices have moderated compared to last year as all agents reported additional inventory in the market. Although traffic was lower vs this time last year, our Index was up 23pts sequentially. Consistent with broader trends, expectations are for healthy spring activity though not as strong as the prior year. Supply remains extremely tight at the entry-level price points. Demand increased sequentially, though held below expectations and last year's levels. The persistent inventory shortage continues to support home price appreciation. Agents saw buyers returning to the market in March encouraged by the drop in rates, improved weather and additional inventory. That said, we highlight a hesitation to purchase with buyers concerned prices will moderate in the future. The majority (67%) saw home prices rise sequentially driven by the lack of available inventory. Additionally, respondents cited an increase in new construction, active-adult communities.

4 Table of Contents Key Housing s: Key Housing s Continued: 5 Atlanta, Georgia 28 Philadelphia-Southern New Jersey 6 Austin, Texas 29 Phoenix, Arizona 7 Baltimore, Maryland 3 Portland, Oregon 8 Boston, Massachusetts 31 Raleigh, North Carolina 9 Charlotte, North Carolina 32 Sacramento, California 1 Chicago, Illinois 33 San Antonio, Texas 11 Cincinnatti, OH 34 San Diego, California 12 Columbus, OH 35 San Francisco, California 13 Dallas, Texas 36 Sarasota, Florida 14 Denver, Colorado 37 Seattle, Washington 15 Detroit, Michigan 38 Tampa, Florida 16 Fort Myers, Florida 39 Tucson, Arizona 17 Houston, Texas Virginia Beach, VA 18 Indianapolis, Indiana 41 Washington, D.C. 19 Jacksonville, Florida Kansas City, Missouri 42 Appendix: 21 Las Vegas, Nevada 43 Historical Trends by 22 Los Angeles, California 48 Agent Recommendations 23 Miami, Florida 5 Survey Methodology 24 Minneapolis, Minnesota 51 Disclosures 25 Nashville, Tennessee 26 New York-Northern New Jersey 27 Orlando, Florida

5 Atlanta, GA % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 52% % 33% 25% 14% 15% 37% 42% 21% 26% 68% 5% 12% 47% 41% The declined to 36 from 57 in 18. The Hom e Price Index to lowered to 69 from 86 last year: Although additional supply is coming online, the inventory shortage persists supporting sequential home price appreciation. Very limited inventory in the entry-level marketplace. Improved weather, spring seasonal activity. Buyers slow to make a commitment. Rates have moved lower and we are seeing normal traffic. Strong employment base in Atlanta. Spring activity is promising but not as good as 18 or 17. Additional supply coming online, but low inventory remains a concern. 3 rd largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 26,97 Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide 5 17 Atlanta as a % of Total 1 D.R. Horton 3, % 7.3% 2 Century Communities 1, % 36.2% 3 PulteGroup 1,39 5.3% 4.9% 4 Lennar Corp % 2.1% 5 Smith Douglas Communities % 6 Taylor Morrison % 7.8% 7 Rocklyn Homes % 8 Ashton Woods Homes % 9 Green Brick Partners % 44.5% Top 9 Totals 9, %

6 Austin, TX % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 25% 75% % % 5% 5% 5% 25% 25% % % 25% 75% % % The rose to 88 from 5 in March 18: Demand increased above expectations, led by activity at the lower price points (<~$35k). The Hom e Price Index decreased to 63 from in March 18. Late spring start and the influx of new residents continues. Lack of inventory combined with lower rates has led to multiple offers on homes. Robust market, especially in the mid-$3k s. Austin remains a hot and healthy market. Slower start to the season than last year, but March has made gains. Home prices are now meeting market expectations. 5 th largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 16,94 Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide 6 17 Austin as a % of Total 1 D.R. Horton 2, % 5.% 2 Lennar Corp. 1, % 3.5% 3 KB Home 1,17 6.8% 9.3% 4 PulteGroup % 4.2% 5 Milestone Community Builders % 6 Meritage Homes % 7.6% 7 Pacesetter Homes % 8 Gehan Homes % 9 Taylor Morrison % 5.8% Top 9 Totals 8, %

7 Baltimore, MD % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... % 5% 5% 5% 5% % Note: Baltimore was excluded from March survey results due to lack of respondents 25% 75% % % 5% 5% 5% 25% 25% The was 5 this month: Lower rates have motivated more serious buyers in the market place. The Hom e Price Index cam e in at 25 in March. Lack of inventory. Lower interest rates. Seeing more serious buyers in the marketplace. Expect traffic to continue to improve. 32 nd largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 5,347 Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide 7 17 Baltimore as a % of Total 1 NVR 1, % 8.9% 2 Lennar Corp % 1.6% 3 Beazer Homes USA % 4 Hovnanian Enterprises % 3.% 5 Richmond American Homes % 6 Toll Brothers % 1.7% 7 PulteGroup %.5% 8 Brookfield Homes 4 2.4% 9 Bob Ward Companies % Top 9 Totals 3, %

8 Boston, MA <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month The fell to 32 from 36 last year: remained muted below agents expectations, despite additional entry-level buyers in the marketplace. The Hom e Price Index increased to 73 from 61 in March 18. Still in short supply of housing inventory. Buyer fatigue and uncertainty about the future. More entry-level buyers entering the market. Expect traffic will still be busy through the selling season, but not as busy as last year. Still seeing decent open house traffic. 18 single family permits: 4,846 % % % % % % How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 55% 45% % 73% % 55% 27% 27% 18% % % % 9% 55% 36% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide 8

9 Charlotte, NC % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 44% 44% 33% 56% 11% 11% 44% 33% 22% 22% 78% % % 56% 44% The rose to 44 from 29 last year: Demand continues to outpace supply, especially at the entrylevel price points. The Hom e Price Index fell to 67 from 93 in March 18. Still a shortage of homes for entry-level buyers. Lack of affordable inventory ($15k-$25k). Drop in interest rates, and spring weather. Additional supply coming on the market, but below demand. Corning is opening a new corporate office. Activity roughly stable or increasing vs last year s level. 8 th largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 15,282 Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide 9 17 Charlotte as a % of Total 1 Lennar Corp. 1, % 4.2% 2 D.R. Horton 1, % 2.6% 3 True Homes % 4 PulteGroup % 3.7% 5 NVR % 4.3% 6 AV Homes % 21.% 7 M/I Homes % 9.4% 8 Eastwood Homes % 9 LGI Homes % 6.1% Top 9 Totals 7, %

10 Chicago, IL % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 45% 32% 23% 5% 23% 27% 41% 45% 14% 18% 14% 68% 5% 52% 43% The declined to 31 from 38 in 18: Buyers beginning to return to the marketplace after a brutal winter, though many citied a lack of urgency in closing. The Hom e Price Index fell to 45 from 75 last March. Builders on the IL/IN border are capturing buyers. Low inventory on homes in the $25-$35k price range. Buyers emerging with cabin fever after a brutal winter. Rates have decreased, but not seeing urgency among buyers. Buyers in a wait and see mode given uncertainty in the economy and taxes. Expect a spike in activity as buyers who did not come out in the cold beginning to emerge. 21 st largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 8,476 Chicago as a % 17 of Total 1 Lennar Corp % 1.7% 2 D.R. Horton 9.3% 1.3% 3 PulteGroup % 2.1% 4 M/I Homes 4 6.5% 8.3% 5 Olthof Homes % 6 Hovnanian Enterprises % 4.4% 7 Providence Real Estate Development 3.1% 8 Taylor Morrison % 1.5% 8 NVR %.8% 1 Lexington Homes % Top 1 Totals 3, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide 1

11 Cincinnati, OH % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Note: October 17 results were excluded due to lack of respondents The increased to 7 from 56 in March 18: Notably, % of realtors saw open house traffic increase from February. The Hom e Price Index ticked down to 9 from 94 last year. Attractive rates have increased buyer confidence. Lower interest rates have buyers being aggressive in their search process. Lower inventory levels in the $3k and under price range. is healthy as long as listings are in the lower price range. 43 rd largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 4,273 Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide Cincinnati as a % of Total 1 The Fischer Group % 2 NVR % 3.7% 3 The Drees Co % 4 M/I Homes % 6.6% 5 Maronda Homes % 6 Arlinghaus Builders % 7 Hills Communities % 8 Cristo Homes % 9 Ashford Homes % 1 Meridian Mark % Top 1 Totals 2, %

12 Columbus, OH % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 67% 33% % 38% 38% 23% Note: This market had been excluded from our survey from Nov 17 April 18 % 38% 62% 8% 58% 33% 58% 25% 17% The was 5 this month: Agents continue to see pent-up demand and heightened competition at the affordable price points (<$3k). The Hom e Price Index cam e in at 83 in March. Anything under $3k is flying off the market. A little more inventory, but a shortage as a whole. More competition in the affordable housing market. Weather improving and longer daylight hours. Highly competitive under $3k. Activity similar to last year so far. 39 th largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 4,237 Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide Columbus as a % of Total 1 PulteGroup % 3.3% 2 M/I Homes % 9.3% 3 The Fischer Group % 4 Westport Homes % 5 Epcon Communities Franchising % 6 Rockford Homes % 7 NVR % 1.3% 8 Maronda Homes % 9 Village Communities % 1 Homewood Homes % Top 1 Totals 2, %

13 Dallas, TX % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... % % 78% 22% % 7% 3% % % 56% 22% 22% % 71% 29% The declined to from last year. The Hom e Price Index lowered to 39 from in the prior year: Home prices continue to moderate as all agents cited additional supply coming onto the market. Buyers have a more relaxed attitude in the over $45k price range, while under $3k is still a very hot market. Inventory is catching up to demand. Better weather generates more buyers. Additional buyers still coming to Texas. Increased days on market with rising inventory levels. Expect traffic to be lower than 18 but still strong. Largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 36,196 Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide Dallas as a % of Total 1 D.R. Horton 4, % 1.3% 2 Lennar Corp. 2, % 5.3% 3 Highland Homes 1, % 4 PulteGroup 1,32 4.2% 6.2% 5 Bloomfield Homes 1,2 4.% 6 First Texas Homes % 7 HistoryMaker Homes % 8 LGI Homes % 14.3% 9 Megatel Homes % Top 9 Totals 15, %

14 Denver, CO % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 33% 33% 33% 83% 17% 17% % 5% 5% 33% 33% 17% 17% 5% 33% The rose to 58 from 46 last year: Lower rates and additional supply have spurred additional optimism in the market. The Hom e Price Index declined to 5 from 83 in March 18. Lower rates have ignited sales again. A bit more optimism in the market. Selling season should be good. Stronger traffic due to warmer weather. Buyers willing to drive to find affordable property. 14 th largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 11,1 Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide Denver as a % of Total 1 Lennar Corp. 1, % 2.9% 2 M.D.C. Holdings 1, % 21.3% 3 Century % Communities 19.2% 4 KB Home % 5.7% 5 Oakwood Homes % 6 Meritage Homes % 5.7% 7 D.R. Horton %.9% 8 Shea Homes % 9 Taylor Morrison % 3.1% Top 9 Totals 5, %

15 Detroit, MI % % % % % % 11% <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 78% 44% 44% 44% 33% 22% 11% 11% 13% 88% % 29% 14% 57% The was unchanged YOY at 44: Improving weather has led to a sequential pick-up in activity levels. The Hom e Price Index declined to 5 from 78 in March 18. Starting to see a seasonal increase in traffic. Improving weather leads to improving activity. White-collar job layoffs in the metro area have offset the benefit of lower rates. Inventory levels are still low. 41 st largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 6,169 Detroit as a % 17 of Total 1 PulteGroup 628.% 3.% 2 Lombardo Homes % 3 Pinnacle Homes % 4 MJC Cos % 5 Infinity Homes % 6 Toll Brothers % 2.1% 7 Robertson Brothers Corp % 8 Clearview Homes % 9 Hunter Pasteur Homes % 1 Allen Edwin Homes % Top 1 Totals 2, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide 15

16 Fort Myers, FL % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 11% % 89% 33% 33% 33% 89% % 11% 78% 22% % 13% % 88% The decreased to 28 from 5 in March 18: Demand held below agents expectations as 89% reported elongated days on market. The Hom e Price Index lowered to 11 from 57 in the prior year. Older buyers fear a recession and don t want to purchase at the market peak afraid to pull the trigger. Water quality perception and algae is still an issue. Expect slower than normal sales this year. Has shifted to a buyers market. 35 th largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 5,817 Ft. Myers as a % 17 of Total 1 Lennar Corp % 2.3% 2 D.R. Horton % 1.7% 3 PulteGroup % 2.% 4 LGI Homes % 4.% 5 Neal Communities of Southwest Florida % 6 Wade Jurney Homes % 7 GL Homes % 8 Adams Homes % 9 Stock Development 71 2.% 1 Taylor Morrison %.8% Top 1 Totals 3, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide 16

17 Houston, TX % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... % 25% 75% 5% 5% 5% 5% 75% 25% % % % % 33% 67% The lowered to 38 from 54 in March 18: Although still below expectations, traffic ticked up slightly vs Feb given lower rates and continued in-migration. The Hom e Price Index decreased to 13 from 63 in the prior year. More companies are relocating to the immediate area. increasing somewhat as interest rates decline. Some prospective buyers still locked into legacy lower rates. Expect a similar spring selling season to the past five years. 2 nd largest market in the country 18 single family permits:,83 Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide Houston as a % of Total 1 D.R. Horton 2, % 5.5% 2 Lennar Corp. 2, % 5.1% 3 Perry Homes 1, % 4 Hovnanian Enterprises 1,4 4.8% 22.6% 5 Long Lake Limited 1,96 4.3% 6 Taylor Morrison % 13.4% 7 KB Home % 9.8% 8 PulteGroup % 4.5% 9 Meritage Homes % 11.7% 9 LGI Homes % 15.4% Top 1 Totals 13, %

18 Indianapolis, IN % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... % % % % % % Note: Indianapolis was excluded from August 18 and February 19 results due to lack of respondents 25% 5% 25% % % % % % % The declined to 3 from 42 last year. The Hom e Price Index decreased to 9 from 92 in March 18: Agents saw prices up sequentially due to the lack of available inventory. We note traffic strength is concentrated at the entry-level. Limited supply in the market. will likely stay strong in the non-luxury market. Lack of available inventory. 24 th largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 7,144 Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide Indianapolis as a % of Total 1 Arbor Homes % 2 Lennar Corp % 1.8% 3 PulteGroup % 3.7% 4 Westport Homes % 5 The Fischer Group % 6 M/I Homes % 7.3% 7 Beazer Homes % 5.1% 8 NVR % 1.% 9 The Drees Co % 1 Davis Building Group % Top 1 Totals 4, %

19 Jacksonville, FL % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 67% 67% 33% % % 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% % 67% The fell to 33 from 75 last year. The Hom e Price Index increased to 83 from 63 in the prior year: The majority saw home prices rise sequentially driven by the lack of available inventory. Seeing more new construction, especially additional 55+ communities. Buyers moving inland, fearing hurricane situations. th largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 1,756 Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide Jacksonville as a % of Total 1 D.R. Horton 1,5 24.4% 3.8% 2 Lennar Corp % 2.1% 3 Dream Finders Homes 6 1.9% 4 Mattamy Homes % 5 KB Home % 4.3% 6 PulteGroup % 1.7% 7 David Weekley Homes % 8 M.D.C. Holdings % 4.5% 9 ICI Homes 1 2.7% Top 9 Totals 5, %

20 Kansas City, MO % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... % 67% 33% % 33% % 67% % % % % 67% 33% 67% 33% The was unchanged YOY at 67: Despite limited inventory, the selling season seems to be off to a healthy start. The Hom e Price Index lowered to 83 from 92 in March 18. Lack of homes for sale. Low interest rates, decent job and wage growth. Time of year for buyers to begin looking more seriously. 33 rd largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 5,8 Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide 17 1 Summit Custom Homes % 2 Prieb Homes 27 7.% 3 James Engle Custom Homes % 4 Johnnie Adams Homes % 5 Don Julian Builders 2.6% 6 Rodrock Homes % 7 Robertson Construction % 8 SAB Construction 78 2.% 9 Hearthside Homes of Kansas City % 1 Integrity Homebuilders % Top 1 Totals 1, % Kansas City as a % of Total

21 Las Vegas, NV % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % The declined to 3 from 38 last year: Activity held below expectations as buyers adopt a wait and see approach and days on the market elongate. The Hom e Price Index fell to 3 from 97 in March 18. Many low to median income purchasers are priced out of the market. Expecting lower traffic levels than last year. Many buyers waiting and in no rush. 15 th largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 9,589 Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide Las Vegas as a % of Total 1 Lennar Corp. 1, % 3.6% 2 D.R. Horton 1, % 2.6% 3 KB Home 1, % 9.3% 4 M.D.C. Holdings % 15.7% 5 American West Homebuilding Group % 6 PulteGroup 2 6.9% 2.9% 7 Century Communities % 14.3% 8 TRI Pointe Group % 1.2% 9 Woodside Homes % Top 9 Totals 7, %

22 Los Angeles, CA % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 67% 67% 22% 22% 11% 11% 89% 11% 63% % % 38% 38% 38% 25% The fell to 3 from 5 in March 18: Agents cited buyers willing to drive to qualify as entry-level buyers become a bigger piece of the market. The Hom e Price Index declined to 22 from 78 last year. Homebuyers on the fence waiting for prices to drop. Lots of buyers, but few good listings that meet their needs. Lower interest rates. Expect entry-level traffic. Buyers willing to move further to the geographic periphery. 17 th largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 1,29 Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide Los Angeles as a % of Total 1 The Irvine Co % 2 Lennar Corp % 1.8% 3 KB Home % 6.2% 4 Toll Brothers % 6.2% 5 Shea Homes 4 5.1% 6 TRI Pointe Group % 9.3% 7 California Pacific Homes % 8 William Lyon Homes % 1.9% 9 Brookfield Homes % Top 9 Totals 4, %

23 Miami, FL % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 9% 64% 27% % % % 5% % 36% 36% 27% 1% 9% 64% 27% The increased to 46 from 3 last March: Lower rates and several months of pricing moderation have motivated buyers. The Hom e Price Index lowered to 41 from 48 last year. Lower interest rates have kept buyers coming and seeing many out of state buyers. Lower mortgage rates and sellers more flexible. Price reductions are bringing high-end prices down to levels more acceptable to buyers. Recent lower rates have buyers looking more seriously. more active for well-priced properties. 11 th largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 7,44 Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide Miami - Ft. Lauderdale as a % of Total 1 Lennar Corp. 2, % 6.% 2 The Related Group 1, % 3 D.R. Horton % 1.6% 4 GL Homes % 5 Eastview Development % 6 Key International 3 4.% 7 Century Homebuilders % 8 Hovnanian % Enterprises 4.2% 9 Plaza Equity Partners 7 2.2% Top 9 Totals 6, %

24 Minneapolis, MN 1 % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 5% 41% 9% 14% 32% 55% 9% 59% 32% 3% 65% 63% 5% 13% 25% The lowered to 41 from 63 in the prior year: Activity levels rose sequentially alongside improving weather, with agents citing strong traffic below $k. The Hom e Price Index fell to 7 from 83 in March 18. Better weather and lower interest rates. Inventory still low multiple offers are part of the norm. March has been busy once the weather improved. Shortage of listings in lower brackets. Weather contributed to a slow first quarter, but anticipate a pick-up in traffic. Strong traffic under the $k price range. 22 nd largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 8,873 Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide Minneapolis as a % of Total 1 Lennar Corp. 1, % 2.7% 2 PulteGroup % 2.2% 3 D.R. Horton %.9% 4 M/I Homes % 4.9% 5 Mattamy Homes % 6 Capstone Homes 7 3.7% 7 Robert Thomas Homes % 8 R Home % 9 Hanson Builders % Top 9 Totals 3, %

25 Nashville, TN % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 75% 25% 25% % 5% 5% 5% 25% 33% 67% % % % % % The increased to 38 from 21 last year: Demand was up year over year with agents expecting levels to hold steady through the spring. The Hom e Price Index rose to 63 from 57 in March 18. Weather has improved it has finally stopped raining. Tick down in rates is bringing in buyers from the sidelines. Steady job growth given low taxes and reasonable climate in Tennessee. similar to last year after a slower start. Builders are hoping buyers are willing to drive to qualify. 13 th largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 12,343 Top 1 Builders Nashville as a % 17 of Total 1 Ole South Properties % 2 NVR % 4.1% 3 Goodall Homes % 4 Regent Homes % 5 Beazer Homes % 5.2% 6 PulteGroup % 1.3% 7 Lennar Corp %.5% 8 Signature Homes 3 2.3% 9 The Jones Company of Tennessee % 1 The Drees Co % Top 1 Totals 3, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide 25

26 New York Northern NJ % % % % % % 31% <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 56% 13% 5% 25% 25% 38% 31% 31% 63% 59% 19% 19% 18% 24% The fell to 36 from 47 in the prior year. The Hom e Price Index declined to 59 from 68 in March 18: Realtors noted more affordable properties are driving the majority of the traffic. Buyers are out, but unwilling to commit. Lower-end, first-time buyer price ranges are what is moving most of the traffic. Lower rates and properties moving at lower price points. Activity is good on correctly priced homes, but not the same flurry of activity as last year. Starter homes have the most competition. 1 th largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 1,633 Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide NY - Northern NJ - Long Island as a % of Total 1 Toll Brothers % 1.1% 2 ONEX % 3 Hovnanian Enterprises % 7.2% 4 PulteGroup % 1.6% 5 Lennar Corp %.5% 6 Magnum Real Estate Group % 7 Greenland USA % 8 NVR % 1.1% 9 Flushing Commons Property Owner, LLC 1 1.4% 1 Elad Group and Silverstein Properties % Top 1 Totals 2, %

27 Orlando, FL % % % % % % 56% <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 33% 11% 44% 44% 44% 44% 33% 33% 22% 22% 11% % 22% 78% The increased to 45 from in March 18: Demand rose sequentially and year over year supported by corporate relocations and end-of-season snowbird activity. The Hom e Price Index was higher at 72 vs last year. Several large companies are expanding in the area. Have seen weather have a positive effect on buyers. Many snowbirds making their last efforts to purchase before leaving to go back up North. Demand up due to relocation and in-migration. More qualified buyers in the market. Inventory is still a little low. 6 th largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 16,238 Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide Orlando as a % of Total 1 Lennar Corp. 2,629.7% 6.% 2 D.R. Horton 1,49 8.3% 2.2% 3 The Villages of Lake Sumter % 4 PulteGroup % 3.7% 5 Meritage Homes % 8.4% 6 AV Homes % 25.5% 7 Mattamy Homes % 8 Taylor Morrison % 6.7% 9 KB Home % 4.5% Top 9 Totals 8, %

28 Philadelphia Southern NJ % % % % % % 67% <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 17% 17% 33% 33% 33% 33% 17% % % 17% 5% % 5% 33% The was higher at vs 33 in 18: Agents cited heightened buyer confidence given the moderation in rates. The Hom e Price Index ticked down to 75 vs 79 last March. Low rates and buyers gaining confidence in the economy. Strong start to the selling season fostered by low mortgages and positive economic expectations. More traffic than last year. 27 th largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 7,1 Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide Philadelphia as a % of Total 1 NVR 1, % 7.7% 2 Toll Brothers % 9.2% 3 Lennar Corp % 1.2% 4 D.R. Horton %.4% 5 PulteGroup %.7% 6 W.B. Homes 1.9% 7 T.H. Properties % 8 Hovnanian Enterprises % 1.7% 9 V2 Properties 1.6% Top 9 Totals 3,136.8%

29 Phoenix, AZ % % % % % % 31% <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 69% % 47% 33% % 38% 56% 6% 14% 71% 14% 43% 36% 21% The fell to 38 from 71 last year: Although traffic increased sequentially, it remains lower vs the robust demand seen in 18. The Hom e Price Index lowered to 66 from 74 in March 18. Drop in rates bringing some buyers back. Buyers concerned about last year s high prices and worry about another large drop. Increased inventory on the market and improved weather. up over the past few months but still sluggish relative to last year. A lot of shoppers in the market, but hesitation to purchase. 4 th largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 23,553 Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide Phoenix as a % of Total 1 Lennar Corp. 2, 11.5% 4.6% 2 D. R. Horton 1, % 3 Meritage Homes 1, % 16.8% 4 Taylor Morrison 1, % 14.7% 5 PulteGroup 1, % 5.4% 6 Fulton Homes % 7 Shea Homes % 8 KB Home % 5.4% 9 Richmond American Homes % Top 9 Totals 1, %

30 Portland, OR % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 54% 38% 62% 31% 8% 8% 54% 46% % 23% 69% 67% 8% % 33% The ticked up to 5 from 45 in 18: Demand was driven by a combination of additional supply, better weather and lower rates. The Hom e Price Index lowered to 65 from in the prior year. Better weather, promise of continuing low interest rates, rising rental prices. Higher inventory levels and improved weather. Should be a robust spring selling season very similar to last year, except with more inventory on the market. 28 th largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 6,849 Portland as a % 17 of Total 1 D.R. Horton % 1.8% 2 William Lyon Homes % 23.1% 3 Lennar Corp %.9% 4 New Tradition Homes % 5 Pahlisch Homes % 6 Pacific Lifestyle Homes % 7 Stone Bridge Homes NW % 8 Urban NW Homes % 9 Everett Custom Homes 9 1.8% 1 Manor Homes % 1 Renaissance Custom Homes % Top 11 Totals 2, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide 3

31 Raleigh, NC % % % % % % 3% <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 7% % % % % 1% 1% % 3% 9% % % 63% 38% The declined to 5 from 67 in March 18: Demand met agents expectations, with strength concentrated at the entry-level (<$k). The Hom e Price Index lowered to 65 from 92 last year. Inventory is low and seeing high demand for homes priced below $k. Strong housing demand encouraged by decrease in mortgage rates. Better weather and now is the time of year for job relocations. Buyers need to move fast and be decisive on affordable homes. 18 th largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 11,163 Raleigh as a % 17 of Total 1 Lennar Corp % 2.2% 2 Dan Ryan Builders % 3 PulteGroup % 2.3% 4 M/I Homes % 7.8% 5 Royal Oaks Building Group % 6 D.R. Horton %.7% 7 Terramor Homes % 8 Taylor Morrison 2 2.7% 2.7% 8 Mungo Homes 2 2.7% Top 9 Totals 3, % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide 31

32 Sacramento, CA % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... % % % % % % % % % 25% 75% % % % % The decreased to from 77 in the prior March. The Hom e Price Index fell to 7 from 91 last year: Although prices were up vs Feb, they are down YOY and agents noted Sacramento remains relatively affordable. Lower rates and Sacramento is still relatively affordable. Increased consumer confidence. Incessant rain had the selling season off to a slower start. Normal traffic level for the month. 23 rd largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 6,4 Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide Sacramento as a % of Total 1 Lennar Corp. 1, % 2.8% 2 Taylor Morrison 9 7.4% 5.1% 3 KB Home % 3.6% 4 Woodside Homes % 5 Hovnanian Enterprises % 5.5% 6 Elliott Homes % 7 JMC Homes % 8 D.R. Horton %.6% 9 Beazer Homes % 4.3% Top 9 Totals 3, %

33 San Antonio, TX 1 % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... % % 67% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% % % % % 67% % % The rose to 67 from in March 18: Activity held above expectations given continued inmigration, lower rates and better weather. The Hom e Price Index increased to from 9 last year. Good weather, low rates and sellers looking to close quickly. Lots of people moving into the city due to the thriving local economy. Builders are raising prices on homes. 9 th largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 8,28 Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide San Antonio as a % of Total 1 D.R. Horton 1, % 3.9% 2 KB Home 1, % 1.2% 3 PulteGroup % 3.9% 4 Lennar Corp % 1.7% 5 Meritage Homes % 6.4% 6 LGI Homes 4 4.6% 8.2% 7 Chesmar Homes % 8 M/I Homes % 6.4% 9 Armadillo Homes 3 3.1% 1 Legend Homes % Top 1 Totals 6, %

34 San Diego, CA % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... % % 3% 3% 3% 1% 5% 3% % % % % % % % The was higher at from 46 last year: Agents saw buyers returning to the market, motivated by the easing rates and rising inventory levels. The Hom e Price Index decreased to 5 from 85 in March 18. Improved interest rates and a larger inventory of available homes. Rate drop and an increase in the number of listings. Buyers on the fence are returning to the market. Some buyers taking a wait and see approach. 49 th largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 3,51 Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide San Diego as a % of Total 1 Lennar Corp % 1.4% 2 TRI Pointe Group % 7.5% 3 Shea Homes 2 1.3% 4 KB Home % 2.1% 5 Toll Brothers % 2.% 6 Taylor Morrison % 1.5% 7 Baldwin & Sons % 8 Cornerstone Communities % 9 Meritage Homes %.8% Top 9 Totals 1, %

35 San Francisco, CA % % % % % % 27% <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... % 64% 9% 55% % 45% 45% 27% 27% % % 36% 36% 27% The lowered to 5 from 73 in the prior year. The Hom e Price Index fell to 59 from 86 last year: Buyers seem more willing to move to the geographic periphery in search of affordable housing. Buyers more cautious than last year. Lower rates, improved inventory vs the prior month. Busy once the rain stopped and the seasonal swing. Higher prices in SF are driving new buyers to Oakland. Buyers trying to get in now before further price increases. IPO bonanza coming. Sellers market in most desirable areas. Buyers willing to commute a greater distance. 25 th largest market in the country 18 single family permits: 4,51 Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Note: Indexes above 5 indicate exceeds expectations or higher Slide San Francisco as a % of Total 1 KB Home % 4.9% 2 Lennar Corp %.8% 3 D.R. Horton %.8% 4 Toll Brothers % 4.6% 5 TRI Pointe Group % 6.7% 6 Shea Homes % 7 William Lyon Homes % 9.4% 8 A.D. Seeno Construction Co % 9 PulteGroup 2 4.9% 1.2% 1 Trumark Cos % Top 1 Totals 3, %