Assessment of Current Market Conditions
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- Alexandrina Lorraine Griffith
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1 Assessment of Current Market Conditions 25 May 2011
2 Current Equity Market Environment Outlook Remains Moderately Positive Despite Potential for Short-Term Volatility Index Performance 2011 YTD De-Risking Amidst Most Recent USD Uptick Rebased to DAX (Index Points) WTI Oil Price and / $ Rate (2011 YTD) Index % $ / $ 7, ,200 6, % % 26 (3.4%) , Jan 16 Jan 31 Jan 15 Feb 2 Mar 17 Mar 1 Apr 16 Apr 1 May 16 May 1 Jan 16 Jan 31 Jan 15 Feb 2 Mar 17 Mar 1 Apr 16 Apr 1 May 16 May DAX EuroStoxx-600 VIX Index WTI Crude Oil / $ Rate Bloomberg Bloomberg Continued Funds Inflow into Equities Weekly Net In-/Outflows ($ Bn): YTD $ Bn Bn (4) (8) Positive fund inflows Momentum in EMEA IPO Issuance is Gaining Strength Transaction Volumes YTD (12) 0 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Dec Q Q Q Q Q1 Outflow Inflow IPO Rights Issue Follow-On AMG Data, excludes ETFs Dealogic 2
3 Recent European IPO Environment Lack of Sizeable IPOs Amidst Challenging Issuance Environment Overview of Priced/ Pulled EMEA IPOs since January 2011 Overview of Priced/Postponed IPOs 2011 YTD; Deal Size > $150 MM Date Company Industry Country Size ($ MM) Price Range Width (1) of the Range % Performance since IPO % 19-May-11 Glencore Metals&Mining 10, % 17-May-11 Bank Gospodarki Zywnosciowej Finance Poland % 16-May-11 Ronesans Gayrimenkul Yatirim Real Estate Turkey % 11-May-11 Russian Helicopters Aerospace Russia % 28-Apr-11 Sevan Drilling Oil & Gas Norway % -3.8% 18-Apr-11 Nomos Bank Finance Russia % 0.0% 15-Apr-11 Etalon Group Real Estate/Property Russia % -2.9% 13-Apr-11 GSW Immobilien Real Estate/Property Germany % 14.3% 14-Apr-11 Euroset Holding Retail Russia 1, Apr-11 Isovoltaic Solar Austria Apr-11 Skrill Holdings Finance Apr-11 Ros Agro Food & Beverage Russia % 0.0% 08-Apr-11 Edwards Group Machinery % 07-Apr-11 Amag Austria Metall Metal & Steel Austria % -4.0% 07-Apr-11 Norma Group Metal & Steel Germany % -3.1% 07-Apr-11 Perform Group Computers % -14.1% 31-Mar-11 Topaz Energy & Marine Oil & Gas UAE % 23-Mar-11 Open Finance Finance Poland % 1.5% 22-Mar-11 Taqa Arabia Utilities/Energy Egypt Mar-11 ISS Business Services Denmark 2, % 16-Mar-11 Canal Plus Media France 1, Feb-11 Aker Drilling Oil & Gas Norway % -12.1% 14-Feb-11 Justice Holdings Finance 1, % 11-Feb-11 NordGold Mining Russia 1, % 10-Feb-11 Chelyabinsk Metal & steel Russia % 08-Feb-11 HMS Hydraulic Machinery Russia % -4.8% 04-Feb-11 Koks Mining Russia % 31-Jan-11 Bizim Retail Turkey % 16.8% 21-Jan-11 Italy1 Finance Italy % Average +28.7% -1.3% Dealogic, Bloomberg, Company Filings Pulled or Postponed IPOs Note 1. Price range width to bottom end of the range 3
4 P/E = Market Valuation Listing on the Frankfurt Stock Review of IPO Issue Windows Over Time Analysis of market conditions around IPOs (regardless of sector) suggests the sweet spot for transactions to be in a volatility range of 12-28% Volatility & Volumes Correlation Monthly IPO Volumes (1) Within The Market Volatility/ Return Matrix (2) - Europe 18x Expensive Average (3) Volatility for IPOs 18.7% Post Japan, volatility has decreased to sustainable levels despite ongoing unrest in MENA 16x Sweet Spot for IPOs Strong fundamentals have supported equity valuations which are trending back into the sweet spot for IPOs 14x 12x Apr 2009 Average (3) Market P/E for IPO 13.0x Today 10x 8x Jan 2009 Oct 2008 Post-Lehman Collapse Cheap 6x 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Low Volatility = Execution Risk High Jan Dec 2004 Jan Jun 2007 Jul 2007-Sep 2008 Oct YTD Bloomberg, Dealogic Notes 1. IPO Volumes since Volatility is measured using the VSTOXX Index/Return is measured using Bloomberg estimated P/E of Euro STOXX 600 Index 3. Volume-weighted averages 4
5 Overview of Recent German IPO Activity Lack of large cap IPOs amidst challenging issuance environment Rebounding German Equity Markets DAX and MDAX Since 2008 Rebased to Historical German IPO Volumes YTD Bn 10 Historical cyclical IPO markets 100 Rebounding equity markets lead to recovering IPO markets 60 in 2010 and Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 DAX MDAX YTD Bloomberg Dealogic German IPOs since January 2010 IPOs > 50 MM Deal Size Performance Post Pricing (%) Date Company Industry Nationality MM % of TSO 1 Day 1 Week 1-Month To Date 13-Apr-11 GSW Immobilien Real Estate Germany % n/a Apr-11 Powerland Leather & Textile Goods China % 0.0 (3.2) n/a (9.0) 07-Apr-11 Norma Group Industrials Germany % (1.1) (4.3) (5.5) (5.5) 01-Mar-11 Williams Grand Prix Holdings Leisure & Recreation United Kingdom % (2.5) (3.7) (19.8) (20.6) 03-Feb-11 Derby Cycle Industrials Germany % (2.4) Nov-10 JK Wohnbau Real Estate Germany % (1.3) 3.8 (0.3) Oct-10 European CleanTech 1 SPAC Germany % (4.7) (4.1) (4.5) (4.8) 14-Jul-10 Stroeer Out-of-Home Media Media Germany % 0.0 (2.0) (5.0) Mar-10 Brenntag Chemicals Distribution Germany % Mar-10 Joyou Faucets China % Mar-10 Tom Tailor Fashion Germany % (1.2) (1.2) 19-Mar-10 Kabel Deutschland Holding Cable Germany % Feb-10 Helikos SPAC Germany % (8.0) (5.2) (6.0) (2.5) Average % (1.7) 12.7 Dealogic, Company Data 5
6 Publicly Rumoured European IPO Pipeline Busy Pipeline in German-Speaking Europe Strong German equity pipeline ahead of the rest of Europe Only Russian pipeline expected even stronger The market will be seeing highquality > 1 Bn IPOs German Equity Pipeline Seven > 1.0 Bn IPOs in the German-Speaking Pipeline Chemicals Lighting 5.0 Bn 3.0 Bn Regional Breakdown of the Equity Pipeline Busy Pipeline in Germany and Russia Russia Germany Spain 12.8 Insurance 2.2 Bn France 8.4 Material Handling 2.0 Bn Italy Poland Inks / Chemicals 1.2 Bn Turkey 2.6 Denmark 1.8 Water Technology 1.0 Bn Benelux 1.3 Czech Republic 1.0 Shipping 1.0 Bn Austria
7 Lack of International IPOs in Germany German vs. Issuer Nationality (1) Issuer Nationality Over The Past 5 Years for IPOs > 10 MM Germany Based on # of Transactions Based on Transaction Value ( Bn) Based on # of Transactions Based on Transaction Value ( Bn) Other Europe 10% 5% Gemany 85% Other Europe 5% 2% Gemany 93% 31% Other Europe 14% Russia 7% 48% Other Europe 17% 17% Russia 27% 39% Total: 101 Germany: 86 International: 15 Total: Germany: International: 17.4 Bn 16.2 Bn 1.2 Bn Total: 441 : 213 International: 228 Total: : International: 95.7 Bn 37.4 Bn 58.3 Bn Dealogic International IPOs in Germany over the Past Five Years Pricing Date Issuer Name Nationality Industry Deal Size ( MM) % of TSO Sold Segment 08-Apr-11 Powerland China Leather & Textile Goods Frankfurt Prime 01-Mar-11 Williams Grand Prix Holdings United Kingdom Leisure & Recreation Frankfurt Entry 27-Mar-10 Joyou China Faucets Frankfurt General 12-Nov-09 Agroton Ukraine Agribusiness Frankfurt General 30-Sep-09 Vtion Wireless Technology China Communications Equipment Frankfurt Prime 05-Aug-08 Sintal Agriculture Ukraine Agribusiness Frankfurt General 19-Jun-08 Mriya Agro Holding Ukraine Agribusiness Frankfurt General 27-May-08 Advantest (UMH) Ukraine Media Frankfurt Entry 16-Nov-07 Greater China Precision Components Singapore Mobile Handset Casings Frankfurt Entry 05-Jul-07 ZhongDe Waste Technology China Waste Incineration Equipment Frankfurt Prime 16-May-07 TMM Ukraine Construction/Building Frankfurt General 15-Dec-06 Pegas Nonwovens Czech Republic Nonwoven Textiles Frankfurt Prime (Secondary Listing) 22-Sep-06 BDI BioDiesel International Austria Biodiesel Production Plants Frankfurt Prime 19-Jul-06 Smartrac Netherlands Electronic Equipment & Instruments Frankfurt Prime 04-May-06 CAT Oil Austria Oilfield Services Frankfurt Prime Dealogic Note 1. Excluding follow-on offerings, including all German / market segments 7
8 Strong Presence of International Investors in Germany Investor Nationality in Recent German IPOs Strong Presence from Key and US-Based Investors 371 MM 3x Oversubscribed 23% Local 9% US 34% 34% 759 MM 2x oversubscribed 27% Local 2% US 23% 48% 912 MM 2x oversubscribed US 13% Germany 24% 9% 54% 1.2 Bn 19x Oversubscribed 31% Local 16% 26% US 27% Local 4% 4.4 Bn 3x oversubscribed 21% US 23% 52% Dealogic Access to High Profile German and International Investors Top 10 Investors Key German Investors Equity AuM ($ MM) Investor Name Global Germany Inv. Style Country DWS Investment GARP Germany Allianz Global Investors GARP Germany Union Investment Group Core Growth Germany Deka Investment Core Growth Germany LBB-Invest Core Growth Germany HSBC Global Asset Mgmt Deutschland Core Value Germany Frankfurt-Trust Investment Core Growth Germany Universal-Investment-Gesellschaft Core Growth Germany Pioneer Investments Core Growth Germany Deutsche Asset Mgmt Investmentges Core Growth Germany Top 10 Largest International Investors in Germany Equity AuM ($ MM) Investor Name Global Germany Inv. Style Country Norges Bank Investment Mgmt (NBIM) Core Value Norway Fidelity Management & Research GARP US Capital Research Global Investors Core Value US Fidelity International Core Growth England Natixis Asset Management Core Value France Capital World Investors Core Value US MFS Investment Management Core Growth US BlackRock Investment Mgmt () Growth England Amundi Asset Management GARP France Dodge & Cox Deep Value US Thomson 8
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