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1 Emerging Capital Markets Update for May 2011 All data are as of Tuesday, May 31, The regional indices are based on an average of major EM countries in each region where the data are available. Summary for May 2011 The momentum in emerging markets turned negative in May, as both bond and equity indices posted negative returns for the month. CDS rates widened in May, even though there were no major negative events, other than more Greek sovereign debt trouble, which was likely already priced in. Despite a strengthening US dollar and declining oil prices, nine central banks raised their policy rates in May to fight the threat of inflation. Money Markets Increases in Central Bank Policy s and Money Market s: Nine emerging market central banks raised policy rates in May 2011: India, Nigeria and Chile by 50 basis points and the rest by 25 basis points. Seven central banks, including five in Latin America, raised policy rates by 100 basis points or more for the year to date. Policy rates and money market rates (May 2011): Policy Country Current Latest Change (%) (%) G7 and Euro region Europe Total Changes in 2011 (bps) Date of Latest Changes 1 Key Period End (%) U.K /5/2009 Base Euro Region /7/2011 Refinance Japan /5/2010 Overnight Money Market Total Selected Money Changes Market in BPS (YTD) Deposit Overnight Deposit 1 Week BOJ Unsecured Claim U.S /16/2008 Fed Funds Federal Funds Canada /8/2010 Overnight Deposit Overnight Hungary /24/2011 Base 7 25 Overnight Repo Poland /11/2011 Repo Interbank Offered Russia /29/2011 Refinancing Prime Overnight Slovakia /9/2008 Repo Overnight Interbank Turkey /20/2011 Benchmark One Week Repo Overnight Croatia /31/2007 Discount Interbank Offered Kazakhstan /9/2011 Refinancing Seven Days KIBOR Romania /4/2010 Key Policy ROBOR Overnight

2 Ukraine /10/2010 Discount Overnight on Credit Asia SH Interbank China /6/2011 Lending Offered India /3/2011 Reverse Repo INR Overnight Deposit Indonesia /7/2011 Reference Interbank Offered Malaysia /5/2011 Overnight BNM Interbank Philippines /5/2011 Overnight Overnight Repo Thailand /20/2011 Repo Overnight Bibor Pakistan /29/2010 Discount KIBOR One Week Sri Lanka /11/2011 Repo Overnight Deposit Vietnam /8/2010 Base VNIBOR Overnight Interbank Middle Egypt /17/2009 Deposit Interbank s East and Interbank Offered Nigeria /24/2011 Policy rate Africa (7 days) South Benchmark /19/2010 Repo Africa Overnight Kenya /31/2011 CB rate Lebanon /1/2009 Repo Overnight Deposit Morocco /24/2009 Repo Weighted Average Latin Selic Average Brazil /22/2011 SELIC America Overnight Chile /12/2011 Overnight Month Colombia /31/2011 Overnight Money Market s Mexico /17/2009 Overnight Official Overnight Peru /12/2011 Reference Deposit One Day Argentina 11.5 (***) (***) Repo Interbank Uruguay /23/2011 Overnight Venezuela 9.2 (***) (***) Overnight Avg Interest s Sources: Bloomberg News: Central Bank Watch, Countries, s, Changes. 2

3 Fixed Income and Credit Markets Small Declines in Bond Yields Continued: In May: Government bond yields continued to drop slightly in the secondary market. Yields in Latin America fell by 30 bps, Europe/Central Asia/Africa by five bps, and Asia by one bp. Twelve of 16 monitored countries saw their yields decline. Peru (-63 bps), Mexico (-40 bps) and Indonesia (-36 bps) posted the largest drops, while yields in India (+28 bps) and Hungary (+16 bps) increased the most. As a benchmark, the yield of the US government bond index decreased by 23 bps this month after an 18- bp drop in April. Year to date: Latin America s regional average bond yield moved higher by 20 bps, but average yields were flat in Europe/Central Asia/Africa (-3 bps) and Asia (unchanged). The yield of the US government bond index was 23 bps lower. Yields increased in eleven countries and decreased in five. Peru (+75 bps), India (+43 bps) and Brazil (+26 bps) had the largest increases while Hungary (-73 bps) and Indonesia (-33 bps) had the largest decrease. 10 Average 10 years Government Bond Yield Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Asia (5.62%) ECA/SSA (6.34%) LAC (8.43%) US (3.06%) Note: Countries included in the regional index: Asia: China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand; ECA/SSA: Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, Slovak Republic, Turkey and South Africa; LAC: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. Source: Bloomberg. 3

4 Wider Global Sovereign Spreads: In May: EMBI global sovereign spreads widened in all regions (Middle East/North Africa (+17 bps), Europe/Central Asia and Asia (+12 bps, each), Latin America (+10 bps) and Sub-Saharan Africa (+7 bps)). Among 24 countries monitored 1, six tightened; of these, Peru (-28 bps) had the biggest contraction. Eighteen countries had wider spreads; of these, Pakistan (+96 bps), Venezuela (+57 bps) and Ukraine (+55 bps) had the largest increases. Year to date: spreads widened in all regions, except in Sub-Saharan Africa (-15 bps). The Middle East/North Africa s spread (+58 bps) widened the most, Latin America (+30 bps), Asia (+26 bps) and Europe/Central Asia (+16 bps) also widened. Spreads in Pakistan (+153 bps) and Egypt (+108 bps) were still wider by triple digits since the beginning of the year, the two widest among 18 countries with widening spreads. For the six countries with narrowing spreads, Hungary (-64 bps) and Kazakhstan (-55 bps) narrowed the most. A recent drop in the U.S. government bond yield partially explains the widening spreads in a large number of EM countries. 600 EMBI Global Sovereign Spread Index Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Asia (201) ECA (247) LAC (387) MENA (342) SSA (314) Note: 1 Excluding Tunisia temporarily due to constant spreads since April Sources: Bloomberg: JP Morgan index (JPMX). 4

5 GEMX Lost in May: In May: The GEMX Global Total Return Index, which measures local currency government bond performance in 24 investable emerging markets, ended its three-month run of positive returns with a 1.2 percent loss. By region, Latin America (+1.2%) still gained, but Europe/Central Asia/Africa (-2.7%) and Asia (-1.1%) both posted negative returns. Among 24 GEMX countries, 15 suffered losses. Kenya (-5.7%), Turkey (-4.6%), Hungary (-3.6%) and Romania (-3.5%) had the largest losses, while Peru (+6.2%) and Indonesia (+2.1%) posted relatively large gains. Year to date: The GEMX Global Total Return Index posted a 5.5 percent gain, and all regional indices gained: Latin America (+8.9%), Europe/Central Asia/Africa (+5.4%) and Asia (+2.5%). At the country level, 17 countries posted positive returns. Hungary (+19.7%), Romania (+14.5%), Uruguay (+14.2%), the Russian Federation (+12.6%), Indonesia (+12.2%), Mexico (+10.1%) and Poland (+10.0%) were the top performers, gaining by double digits. However, Kenya (-11.3%) and Nigeria (-5.2%) incurred large losses. Year-to-date, GEMX was 1.8 percent ahead of GBI Global, the government bond index for developed countries produced by JP Morgan. GEMX s monthly loss in May reduced its lead over GBI to 1.2 percent GEMX Total Return Index (2/29/2008 = 100, Unhedged) 70 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Asia (122.3) ECA/SSA (126.5) LAC (140.6) Global (129.4) 70 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 GBI Global (118.6) Germany (111.6) Japan (136.6) United Kingdom (101.3) United States (115.4) Note: 1. Countries included in the GEMX regional index: Asia: China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Thailand; ECA/SSA: Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Turkey, Egypt, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria and South Africa; LAC: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay. 2. Countries included in the GBI-Global index: Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and United States. 3. Since November 30, 2009, Markit has added five new countries (Sri Lanka, Romania, Kenya, Costa Rica and Uruguay) and inflation-linked bond indices for South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Uruguay to the GEMX indices. The graph is based on a re-based GEMX aggregated total return index (unhedged). 4. For comparison purposes, the GBI global index level has been re-based, as have all country indices. Source: Markit and JP Morgan (Morgan Markets) GBI Global Total Return Index (2/29/2008 = 100, level US$) 5

6 CDS s Widened: In May: Regional CDS rates widened: Europe/Central Asia/Africa (+9 bps), Asia (+3 bps) and Latin America (+1 bps). By comparison, the average CDS rates in mature markets (UK, Japan and Germany) were up by two basis points. CDS rates increased in 18 of 23 monitored countries. s widened the most in Venezuela (+87 bps), Ukraine (+39 bps) and Vietnam (+21 bps). At the same time, Peru (-22 bps) was the only country with a double-digit drop in its CDS rate. Year to date: CDS rates were up in Asia (+8 bps) but down in Europe/Central Asia/Africa (-26 bps) and Latin America (-4 bps). The average CDS rate in mature markets was down by six bps. s in eleven countries increased for the year to date. Venezuela (+94 bps), Turkey (+23 bps), Thailand (+23 bps) and Peru (+20 bps) had the largest increases. For the countries with falling rates, Hungary (-125 bps), Romania (-63 bps) and Ukraine (-51 bps) remained in the top three. 600 Regional Average 5Y CDS (bps) Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Asia (107.1) ECA/SSA (200.5) LAC (185.2) Mature Markets (61.3) Note: Countries included in regional index: Asia: China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand; ECA/SSA: Croatia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovak Republic, Turkey, Ukraine and South Africa; LAC: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru; Mature Markets: UK, Japan and Germany. Sources: Bloomberg and staff calculation. 6

7 Equity Markets and Currency Markets All lost except MENA: In May: Regional equity indices reversed the previous two months performance pattern: only Middle East/North Africa (+4.5%) gained, a recovery from the last two months losses, while Europe/Central Asia (-6.3%), Asia (-4.8%), Sub-Saharan Africa (-3.8%) and Latin America (-2.1%) all lost. Mature markets (US, UK and Japan) also lost (-1.4% on average) for the month. Among individual countries, the losers-to-gainers ratio was three to one. Ukraine (-13.8%), Turkey (-13.5%), Vietnam (-11.4%) and Romania (-10.2%) incurred double-digit percentage losses among the 24 losers while Egypt (+8.3%), Peru (+7.6%) and Colombia (+4.2%) had relatively large gains. Year to date: Europe/Central Asia (+3.4%) and Latin America (+2.2%) had positive returns while Middle East/North Africa (-7.2%), Sub-Saharan Africa (-2.2%) and Asia (-1.7%) lost. By comparison, the mature markets, on average, gained by 5.3 percent. So far this year, the emerging equity markets were not able to outperform the major mature markets on average. By country, gainers and losers were evenly divided. Romania (+39.8%) led the gainers, followed by Hungary (+22.4%), Croatia (+19.9%), Sri Lanka (+17.7%), Poland (+16.9%), Slovakia (+15.0%) and Indonesia (+12.4%) with doubledigit gains. Meanwhile, Ukraine (-20.0%), Vietnam (-17.9%), Egypt (-14.6%), Tunisia (-12.3%) and Peru (-12.2%) were the worst performing markets for the year so far Market Capitalization Index (7/1/2008 = 100) Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Asia (154.7) ECA (81.9) LAC (118.6) MENA (69.1) SSA (119.0) Mature Markets (104.2) Note: 1. Regional Index value is calculated based on the sum of market capitalization of counties in the region. 2. Countries included in the regional index: Asia: China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam; ECA: Croatia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovak Republic, Turkey and Ukraine; MENA: Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia; SSA: Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa; LAC: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela; Mature Markets: US, UK and Japan. Sources: Bloomberg and staff calculation. 7

8 Currencies Weakened: In May: The regional average exchange rate index weakened against the US dollar: Europe/Central Asia (-2.8%), Sub-Saharan Africa (-2.7%), Middle East/North Africa (-1.2%), Asia (-0.8%) and Latin America (-0.2%). This is most likely due to the strengthening of the US dollar (+1.4%) against other major currencies (GBP, Euro, JPY). Among 33 emerging economies, currencies depreciated in 26 economies and appreciated in seven. Turkey (-4.5%), Romania (-4.0%), Croatia (-3.9%), Hungary (-3.6%), South Africa (-3.4%), Poland (-3.2%) and Kenya (-3.1%) depreciated the most. Meanwhile, Peru (+2.1%) and Uruguay (+1.2%) had the largest percentage appreciations. Year to date: The average exchange index in Europe/Central Asia gained by 5.8%, followed by Latin America (+3.3%), Middle East/North Africa (+1.7%) and Asia (+0.5%), while Sub-Saharan Africa (-3.6%) lost. The average currency value in developed markets gained 3.4% for the year against the US dollar. Currencies in 21 of 33 monitored countries gained. Hungary (+12.5%), Romania (+11.5%), the Russian Federation (+9.1%), Poland (+8.0%) and Slovakia (+7.5%) were the top five gainers. Meanwhile, Kenya (-6.1%) and Vietnam (-5.2%) had the largest losses. 110 Average Exchange Index (7/1/2008 = 100) Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Asia (99.1) ECA (80.0) LAC (99.4) MENA (91.6) SSA (89.1) Mature Markets (101.3) Note: Countries included in the regional index: Asia: China, India. Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam; ECA: Croatia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovak Republic, Turkey and Ukraine; MENA: Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia; SSA: Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa; LAC: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay; Mature Markets: US, Euro and Japan. Sources: Bloomberg and staff calculation. 8

9 Credit Ratings, Market Indicators and Flows of EM Bond Funds Long Term Sovereign Foreign Currency Debt Ratings: Colombia upgraded to investment grade Moody s upgraded Colombia s foreign currency debt to investment grade Baa3 from Ba1 (as indicated in green below). Moody s based the upgrade on Colombia s proven ability to deal with internal and external shocks, its long history of timely debt payments, and the reduced security threat posed by guerrilla groups and organized crime over time. With two investment grade ratings from rating agencies now, Colombia is likely to attract more attention from international investors. Credit ratings and rating changes in 2011: Region Country Long term sovereign credit ratings Rating changes from Moody s S&P Fitch Moody s S&P Fitch G7 and Euro region U.K. Aaa AAA AAA Japan Aa2 AA- AA AA U.S. Aaa AAA AAA Canada Aaa AAA AAA Europe Hungary Baa3 BBB- BBB- Poland A2 A- A- Russia Baa1 BBB BBB Slovakia A1 A+ A+ Turkey Ba2 BB BB+ Croatia Baa3 BBB- BBB- Kazakhstan Baa1 BBB BBB- Romania Baa3 BB+ BB+ Ukraine B2 B+ B Asia China Aa3 AA- A+ India Baa2 BBB- BBB- Indonesia Ba1 BB+ BB+ Ba2 BB Malaysia A3 A- A- Philippines Ba3 BB BB Thailand Baa1 BBB+ BBB Pakistan B3 B- NR Sri Lanka B1 B+ B+ Vietnam B1 BB- B+ Middle East and Africa Latin America Sources: Bloomberg. Egypt Ba3 BB BB Ba2 BB+ BB+ Morocco Ba1 BBB- BBB- Nigeria NR B+ BB- South Africa A3 BBB+ BBB+ Kenya NR B+ B+ Lebanon B1 B B Tunisia Baa3 BBB- BBB- Baa2 BBB BBB Argentina B3 B B Brazil Baa3 BBB- BBB BBB- Chile Aa3 A+ A+ A Colombia Baa3 BBB- BB+ Ba1 Mexico Baa1 BBB BBB Peru Baa3 BBB- BBB- Costa Rica Baa3 BB BB Uruguay Ba1 BB+ BB Venezuela B2 BB- B+ 9

10 Market Indicators: Selected indicators in May and changes in 2011: Region Country 10 year Govern ment Bond Yield (%) EMBIG Sovereign Spread Index value (bps) Changes (YTD, bps) GEMX Unhedged Index Total Return Index Changes (%, YTD) 5 year CDS (bps) Market Capitalization Value (US$ bn) Changes (%, YTD) Exchange Value per Changes USD (end period) (%, YTD) Europe Hungary Poland Russia Slovakia Turkey Croatia Kazakhstan Romania Ukraine Asia China , India , Indonesia , Malaysia Philippines Thailand Pakistan Sri Lanka Vietnam , Middle East and Africa Egypt Morocco Nigeria South Africa Kenya Lebanon , Tunisia Latin Brazil , America Chile Colombia , Mexico Peru Argentina Costa Rica Uruguay Venezuela 1, Mature US , Markets UK , Japan , Euro Germany 39 Sources: Bloomberg, Markit and staff calculation. 10

11 Flows from bond funds into major EMs topped US$9 billion for the first four months of the year: EPFR data show that major EM economies received US$9 billion in inflows from EM bond funds in the first four months of the year. Mexico ($1.7 bn), Brazil ($1.17 bn) and the Russian Federation ($1.05 bn) were the three countries that received the most inflows during that time, gathering more than 40 percent of the total. The political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa caused a dramatic reduction in inflows in February, but as the initial shock subsided, the flows from bond funds started to come back in March and greatly increased in April. Indeed, global investors poured more than $4 billion into EM economies during that month, surpassing the $3.3 billion in inflows that those economies received in January. Going forward, such continued large inflows into just a few EM economies might pose challenges to the policy makers who are trying to manage large sums of inflows and fight inflation at the same time. Monthly country flows of major emerging economies (Jan. Apr. 2011) Mexico (US$ mn) Brazil (US$ mn) Russia (US$ mn) Poland (US$ mn) South Africa (US$ mn) Indonesia (US$ mn) Hungary (US$ mn) Malaysia (US$ mn) Turkey (US$ mn) Peru (US$ mn) China (US$ mn) Colombia (US$ mn) Philippines (US$ mn) Chile (US$ mn) Sri Lanka (US$ mn) India (US$ mn) Thailand (US$ 91.2 mn) Uruguay (US$ 73.4 mn) Morocco (US$ 32.4 mn) Egypt (US$ 14.5 mn) Romania (US$ 6.2 mn) Nigeria (US$ 6.2 mn) Costa Rica (US$ 2.8 mn) January (US$ mn) February (US$ mn) March (US$ mn) April (US$ mn) Source: EPFR US$, million Note: 1 Tracking both traditional and alternative funds domiciled globally with $14 trillion in total assets, EPFR Global, a subsidiary of Informa plc (LSE: INF), provides fund flows and asset allocation data to financial institutions around the world. For questions or more information, please contact Ying Lin (x33869, ylin@worldbank.org); Yibin Mu (x89465, ymu@worldbank.org); Ketut Ariadi Kusuma (x84987, KKusuma@ifc.org) and Catherine Anne Hickey (x34205, CHickey@ifc.org) 11