2017 ECONOMIC AND WORKFORCE PROFILE Grant County

Transcription

1 2017 ECONOMIC AND WORKFORCE PROFILE Grant County STATE OF WISCONSIN DETI GRT-P (R. 3/2018)

2 Percentage of Total Popula on, Ages 65 and Older

3 Wisconsin now has more people employed and more private sector jobs than at any me in its history. As of this wri ng, the state added 56,100 jobs during 2016 and Employment increased in almost all industry sectors, with prominent gains in construc on, manufacturing, and healthcare. Wisconsin s unemployment rate is near lows not seen in a genera on, decreasing from 4.3 percent in January 2016 to 3.2 percent in December 2017, on a seasonally adjusted basis. Wisconsin faces a worker quan ty challenge. The number of re ring Baby Boomers nearly match the influx of new workers, resul ng in a slow growing workforce and placing constraints on the ability by employers across all industries to hire talent. Many businesses report that the lack of available workers has hindered expansion and, in some cases, even curtailed their ability to meet current product orders. The blue line, orange line graph to the right illustrates the situa on in Wisconsin and other upper Midwest states. While Wisconsin's popula on will con nue to grow over the next twenty years, the workforce faces serious constraints. The labor force par cipa on rate (LFPR), defined as the labor force (sum of employed and unemployed) divided by the total popula on ages 16 and older, measures the popula on's engagement in the workforce and serves as an indicator in determining how Wisconsin's workforce will be constrained. The overall LFPR peaked in the late 1990s and has been trending lower ever since. The LFPR of peaks across Source: Local Area Unemployment Sta s cs, Bureau of Labor Sta s cs the age cohort at over ninety percent and decreases rapidly into the single digits by age seventy. Baby Boomers have and con nue to exit with respect to their LFPR. The mass of Baby Boomers has moved into the work lifecycle stage of declining LFPRs, with the tail end of the cohort turning 55 in Source: Bureau of Labor Sta s cs A recent development is the change in the labor force par cipa on rate trend. The LFPR of older workers (those aged 55 years and older) has turned upwards, resul ng in fla ening of the overall LFPR. More boomers are staying in the workforce longer, which may portend higher workforce growth over the coming years. Due to the size of the Baby Boomer cohort and the sensi vity of the LFPR to workforce growth rates, a rela vely small change in the LFPR of older workers would significantly boost the number in the workforce. 1

4 Popula on and Demographics Source: Demographic Services Center, Wisconsin Department of Administra on Grant County added an es mate of 1,899 residents from April 2010 to January 2016, ranking it as the 27th largest county in the state. The rate of increase 3.7 percent, is higher than the state increase of 1.5 percent, but just shy of the na on s rate of growth of 4.8 percent. The table above lists Grant County s ten most populous municipali es as of January Grant County s popula on is rela vely concentrated in the City of Pla eville, which accounts for 24.1 percent of the county s popula on. Together, the ten largest municipali es account for 59.4 percent of the county s popula on. Grant County is home to one of Wisconsin s state prisons, a facility for adult male offenders located in Boscobel. Wisconsin Secure Program Facility (WSPF) was opened in November of 1999 and as of July 1, 2016 there were 465 inmates housed at WSPF. WSPF employs more than 260 individuals. Prisoners and oth Components of Popula on Change er ins tu onalized persons are counted in the popula on numbers reported above, however they are not tallied for unemployment rate computa on purposes. Popula on change is driven by two factors: natural change and migra on. A natural increase of the popula on occurs when there are more births than deaths. Migra on affects net popula on change in an area posi vely when the number of people moving into the area is larger than the number of people moving out. In the case of Grant County, growth comes from both factors. As shown in the chart to the right, Grant s natural increase was 0.6 percent and migra on was 3.1 percent. While the na on s migra on rate was 2.8 percent. Source: Demographic Services Center, Wisconsin Department of Administra on 2

5 Labor Force Dynamics The chart above Source: Local Area Unemployment Sta s cs, Bureau of Labor Sta s cs plots the monthly rates of unemployment for Grant County, Wisconsin and the US over the last 17 years. The rate of unemployment climbed during the early 2000s recession to levels that were, on average, lower for the na on and higher for the state, rela ve to the previous (1990s) recession. The recovery a er the early 2000s recession was a rela vely weak recovery in terms of job crea on. As the chart shows, the employment recovery between 2003 and 2007 did not result in a significant decline in the unemployment rate. This is explained by a low rate of job crea on in the early phase of the upturn. This increase in job crea on was interrupted by the Great Recession, which was characterized by a rapid contrac on of jobs across regions, industrial sectors and demographic groups. Source: Local Area Unemployment Sta s cs, Bureau of Labor Sta s cs The dynamics of unemployment in Grant County compared to the state and na on have followed state and na onal trends in general, although fluctua ng more intensely during the first phase of the "great recession." The labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed. The chart to the le shows the annual labor force in Grant County. 3

6 Industry Employment and Wages Jobs and wages are the lifeblood of any economy. The more well paying jobs in a region, the be er the prospects for its economy; and the more diverse the county s industry sectors, the more insulated it is from major losses. The largest industry sectors in Grant County are educa on and health, and trade, transporta on, and u li es, with employment shares of 26.8 and 19.8 percent, and payroll shares of 30.3 and 16.2 percent, respec vely. The table at the bo om shows the average annual wages by sector in Grant County and Wisconsin, including the county s share of annual wages by industry rela ve to the state and the annual change in Grant County. Grant County s annual average wage was $35,802 in 2016, which represents 77.8 percent of the statewide average of $46,031. The highest paying sector in 2016 was financial ac vi es, with an average wage of $49,139. Financial ac vi es is followed by manufacturing, with an average annual wage of $48,204 and construc on ($42,223). Grant County s lowest paying sector in 2016 was leisure and hospitality, with an average annual wage of $10,581, 62.2 percent of the statewide aver age. Many jobs in the leisure and hospitality industry are entry level and part me and/ or seasonal. 4

7 Employment Projec ons In addi on to looking at the current state of the economy in Grant County, it is useful to look at projec ons of how employment in the area is expected to change. What follows are projec ons of employment changes by industry sector and by occupa on. Please note that these projec ons are for the collec ve coun es of Grant, Green, Iowa, Lafaye e, Richland, and Rock. Together, these six coun es form the Southwest Wisconsin Workforce Development Area (WDA). These projec ons use informa on from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, including unpublished data from the Bureau of Labor Sta s cs (BLS) as well as data from the Census Bureau s Current Popula on Survey (CPS). While these projec ons consider an cipated changes in Wisconsin's economy, please note that unan cipated events may affect the accuracy of the projec on. In 2014, the area s three largest industry sectors by jobs were the Educa on & Health Services; Trade, Transporta on, & U li es; and Manufacturing. Together, these sectors represented 56.7 percent of jobs in 2014 and are expected to be the three largest industries in The Educa on & Health Services sector is projected to gain more jobs than the other two leading sectors. Overall, these three sectors are projected to add 5,554 jobs by 2024, a 3.7 percent increase from The share of total jobs by industry sector is projected to change li le through The Manufacturing sector's numerical growth of 559 appears to be somewhat nominal given the size of the region however readers should note that while the numerical growth manufacturing employment is slight, there will be many opportuni es for a new genera on of workers in manufacturing because re rements in the sector are going to outpace employment declines due to economic and demographic shi s. This will con nue into the foreseeable future. The Educa on & Health Services sector is projected to have the largest numeric gain in jobs with 3,554 addi onal jobs in 2024, a 9.4 percent gain from The Educa on & Health Services sector is one of three sectors in the WDA with growth rates in excess of nine percent. All sectors, except for Government and Informa on, are projected to gain jobs by

8 Employment ProjecƟons Source: Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development, September 2015 In 2014, the area's largest occupa on group was Office & Administra ve Support with 20,956 jobs, 13.8 percent of total employment. Of the twenty two occupa on groups, the top five together accounted for 51.8 percent of jobs. All five of these groups are projected to remain in the top five in 2024 and their share of total employment is projected to decline slightly, to 50.5 percent of jobs. The share of total jobs by occupa onal group is projected to change li le through However, four of the top five groups, Office & Administra ve Support; Produc on; Educa on, Training & Library and Sales & Related, are projected to experience slight declines in employment share. The Healthcare Prac oners group is projected to have the largest gain in share, with a rise from 4.7 percent to 5.2 percent over the projec on period. The largest numeric increase in jobs will occur in the Healthcare Prac oners with a net increase of 1,193 jobs by 2024, a 17 percent gain. The Personal Care & Services group is projected to have the largest propor onal gain, increasing by 20 percent over the period. The Arts, Entertainment & Media occupa on group is projected to experience the most nominal of decreases in employment by 2024, sheading nine jobs. All other occupa on groups are projected to add jobs. The graph on the top of the next page displays Southwest Wisconsin WDA's job base by major industry sector and outlines the age distribu on of its job holders. The graph examines job holders age based upon jobs located in the eight county area without regard to where the worker lives. 6

9 Readers may no ce that the age bands can be quite different industry to industry. Two factors that shape this composi on are labor availability and the occupa onal composi on within the industries. Labor availability is dictated by the overarching age composi on of the popula on and the likelihood of par cipa on in the labor force. The highest par cipa on is likely to occur between the ages of the mid twen es to late fi ies/early six es. Industry age is determined by labor availability and occupa onal composi on. For all industries combined, the largest group of workers are in the age group. Over me, the share of the workforce in this cohort will shrink as baby boomers age. The aging demographics will lead to growth in the and age cohorts as shares of total popula on. Age composi on, however, varies between industries based on occupa onal composi on. Occupa onal composi on is influenced by numerous factors such as a job holder s life stage, experience, educa on, and training. In short, industries that heavily rely on entry level occupa ons will be younger than industries made up of occupa ons that require highly educated workers with years of experiences. In terms of an aged workforce, coming in first, second, and third are Public Administra on (56.5 percent 45 or older), Financial Ac vi es (52.9 percent 45 or older) and Educa on & Health (51.9 percent 45 or older). The large share of older workers may have been par ally caused by the great recession and its a ermath. The recession made layoffs necessary, and layoffs are o en determined by seniority. However, the aging workforce is primarily caused by an aging popula on. Therefore, a rela vely old labor force may become an issue. For More Informa on: William Brockmiller Regional Economist Southwest WDA Phone: (608) william.brockmiller@dwd.wisconsin.gov 7