By Aaron Brandenburg, NAIC Sta s cal Informa on Manager, and Jennifer Gardner, NAIC Research Analyst II

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1 E P /C I U C By Aaron Brandenburg, NAIC Sta s cal Informa on Manager, and Jennifer Gardner, NAIC Research Analyst II F 1: P /C U C Interpreta ons of the underwri ng cycle abound. The majority presume that someone is erring: rate making methods are naive, underwriters are simplis- c, regula on is rigid, or investment managers are deceived. Such explana ons search for a cause where it is not to be found. Insurers are no less ra- onal than other firms are. They exist in a highly compe ve market, where the foolish firm does not long survive. 1 Easier underwri ng and more compe on Lower premium Increase in losses So Market Decreasing reserve Hard Market High premium Tighter underwri ng standards and less compe on I Like all industries, the property/casualty insurance industry experiences cycles of expansion and contrac on over me. In the normal economy of growth or recession, these are o en called business cycles. Unlike other industries, the insurance industry has historically experienced cycles that are typically independent of the business cycle in a somewhat repe ve nature with each las ng from two to 10 years. This phenomenon in the property/casualty insurance world is known as the underwri ng cycle and consists of rising and falling premiums and profits, or hard and so markets. The insurance underwri ng cycle has been studied extensively over the years and while there have been many theories put forward about its causes and mechanics, there is no generally accepted view as to why it exists. This ar cle will explain why the cycle is important to the industry, regulators and policyholders. It will provide an overview of the property/casualty cycle and focus on a few of the theories of why the underwri ng cycle exists. It will also show a history of the property/casualty cycle and a empt to explain at what point of the underwri ng cycle the industry currently resides and where it might be headed. Increasing reserves Decrease in losses T I U C According to Sir Isaac Newton, what goes up must come down. The same observa on holds true for the property/ casualty insurance underwri ng cycle, which has a pa ern of rising and falling prices and profits. Historically, property/ casualty insurance markets have alternated between periods of hard and so markets (Figure 1). In a so market, insurance is plen ful and available at a reasonable price. Compe on thrives in a so market, leading to stable or falling insurance rates. Underwri ng standards may be relaxed and profits fall. Prices are low and the quan ty of insurance increases. Insurers compete over business by lowering rates and offering addi onal coverage. In this part of the cycle, companies may be prac cing cash flow underwri ng, where insurers lower rates in order to increase premium and investment income or retain market share. Insurers use investment earnings to make up for underwri ng losses. As the industry moves through the underwri ng cycle, insurer profits decline and there is a decrease in capital. Eventually, the cycle bo oms out. As the market hardens, rates increase. Insurers reduce risks and may decrease policy limits. Some insurers withdraw from certain markets. In hard markets, underwri ng standards ghten and prices and profits increase. Policy terms become more restric ve as the quan ty of insurance decreases. Supply is limited in a hard market and, therefore, insurance comes at a high cost. There is o en a decrease in compe on and buyers have difficulty finding coverage. Premiums increase and coverage is restricted. At the height of the hard market, there is an increase in insurer profits leading to addi onal capital coming into the market. This leads to increased compe on and pushes premiums down, turning the market yet again as premiums and profits fall. The underwri ng cycle is important, as it has implica ons on profitability, compe on, availability, affordability and solvency. To remain profitable, insurers must pay a en on to underwri ng cycles and market compe on. Occasionally, the cycle reaches a crisis level, as it did with the commercial liability crisis of the 1980s. During this crisis, many businesses saw significant increases in their liability insurance premiums, coverage narrowed, underwri ng standards ghtened, insurers withdrew from markets and businesses found it more difficult to obtain coverage. Consequently, many businesses increased prices, self-insured or went out of busi- (Continued on page 17) 1 Feldblum, Shalom. Underwri ng Cycles and Business Strategies. Casualty and Actuarial Society Available at h p://casact.com/pubs/proceed/proceed01/01175.pdf. 16 July 2014 CIPR Newsle er

2 ness. This led to increased regula on, tort reform and changes to federal legisla on allowing for the crea on of risk reten on groups. The commercial liability crisis was an extreme example of what can happen to certain lines of business in a severe hard market stage of the cycle. At the other end of the spectrum, regulators look closely at so markets because they o en lead to insolvencies. Insolvencies have historically occurred during a so market, when prices are low and compe on is intense. The NAIC s 1991 publica on Cycles and Crises in Property/ Casualty Insurance: Causes and Implica ons for Public Policy (NAIC s 1991 publica on) 2 found nine dis nct underwri ng cycles in its study period: ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; and These cycles were measured from peak to peak, so they include both the hard and so markets. Throughout this me period, cycles were regular, where hardening markets were followed closely by so ening markets. This pa ern prevailed un l the liability crisis in the mid- 1980s. Many have noted that the underwri ng cycles therea er may be lengthening. 3 In the 1970s and 1980s, these cycles lasted three to four years, whereas the so ening cycles have now stretched much longer (five and seven years). Other underwri ng cycles since the mid-1980s include: ; ; and Hard markets occurred in , , and as premium growth peaked. M U C The underwri ng cycle is o en measured by looking at premium growth and the combined ra o. As premium grows, the market becomes harder and more profitable. The combined ra o has the opposite effect; i.e., a high combined ra o is unprofitable for the industry, a sign of a so market. The NAIC s 1991 publica on provides an excellent analysis on the implica ons with using premium growth and combined ra os to measure underwri ng cycles. The combined ra o is a measure of underwri ng performance. It is calculated by adding the loss ra o to the expense ra o. The loss ra o is a fundamental measure of the cost of underwri ng opera ons, signifying the quality of business wri en and the adequacy of premium rates. Expense ra os represent the cost to obtain and retain customers and the efficiency of underwri ng opera ons. The combined ra o decreases when losses or expenses decrease compared to premiums. A combined ra o of less than 100% signifies an underwri ng profit. The combined ra o is an imperfect measure of the actual price of insurance as it is based on calendar year data, which may exclude loss experience on policies wri en. Premium growth may be a result of either an increase in the price of insurance or an expansion in policies wri en or the quan ty of insurance sold. Premium growth can signify an increase in supply in the marketplace. Total premiums may increase as new companies enter the market or exis ng companies write more policies in an a empt to increase market share. Another way to measure the underwri ng cycle is by examining profitability. The return on net worth, or return on equity as it is called in non-insurance ins tu ons, is profit a er taxes divided by allocated capital and surplus. Return on surplus shows a er-tax profitability from underwri ng and investment ac vity. Several metrics measuring the underwri ng cycle will be shown later in this ar cle T U C Perhaps surprisingly, there is no universally accepted explana on as to the causes of the underwri ng cycle or why it exists. Through the years, explana ons for the cycle include lack of restraint, overreliance on the previous period s experience and regulatory regula ons. 4 This ar cle focuses on the effect of exogenous shocks on the underwri ng cycle. These shocks could come in the form of economic effects, a disequilibrium between supply and demand, or other external shocks. Economic effects such as changes in real gross domes c product (GDP), interest rates, unemployment or infla on can produce a shock to the insurance industry, causing a shi in the underwri ng cycle. Shocks to supply, such as changes in interest rates and infla on, have a larger impact on the combined ra o, because the industry cannot respond to shocks to supply as well it might to shocks in demand. 5 Some have argued that the uncertainty of loss costs contribute to underwri ng cycles. With economic downturns may come moderate infla on or reduc ons in the values of insured exposures, ensuring moderate rate revisions for several years. As the economy recovers, loss costs rise rapidly. The result is a me lag between data compila on and (Continued on page 18) 2 Available at 3 Weiss, Mary. Underwri ng Cycles: A Synthesis and Further Direc ons. Journal of Insurance Issues Available at 4 Grace, Mar n and Julie L. Hotchkiss. External Impacts on the Property-Liability Insurance Cycle. Journal of Risk and Insurance. December Ibid. July 2014 CIPR Newsle er 17

3 rate implementa on so necessary premiums are not earned immediately. However, this theory has recently been cri cized because it assumes a lack of ra onal behavior by actuaries; i.e., that they are not capable of forecas ng loss cost trends from experience. Interest rate vola lity has an effect on underwri ng cycles as insurers pay losses some mes years a er they collect premiums, par cularly in long-tail lines. The price of insurance reflects a discounted present value of an cipated losses, expenses and taxes. Longer tail lines such as medical professional liability and workers compensa on may be more heavily impacted by interest rate changes due to the increased discount for the me value of money. Premiums are invested and income earned un l losses are paid. Interest rates rise during periods of infla on. As interest rates rise, insurers are able to rely more heavily on investment income and less so on underwri ng income. Therefore, insurers may loosen underwri ng standards, accept more risk or lower prices below loss costs in order to increase market share. This is called cash flow underwri ng and is characteris c of a so market in which supply is abundant and prices are low. Rising interest rates also cause an increase in expected loss payouts as nominal se lement values rise. The result of the increase in infla on is unclear, because rising interest rates increase investment income as well as an cipated losses. As investment income increases, underwri ng income decreases and insurers may write policies at expected underwri ng losses. As interest rates fall, if insurers con nue to write policies with underwri ng losses, they may see loss of profits. In more recent years, there have been stable interest rates and yet the underwri ng cycle persists. This theory also assumes that insurance companies are unable to adjust rates due to changes in investment income. When interest rates are high, insurance markets usually are so, meaning lower prices because insurers seek investment returns. With lower interest rates, investment income is low and insurance companies rely on income through underwri ng profits. They, therefore, are more cau ous about taking risks. Claim trends affect pricing and underwri ng cycles as trends in claim payouts impact loss costs. High liability losses cause prices to rise as loss costs are built into the rate. Claim trends can follow social and economic trends. During recessions, jury awards tend to be less liberal but in mes of economic expansion, payouts can be extraordinary. Liability lines, such as medical professional liability and auto insurance with liability components, are more heavily impacted by claim trends. Another theory of the underwri ng cycle is based on capacity-constraint theory and focuses on the supply of insurance, as well as insurers access to capital or reinsurance. An increasing number of researchers now accept this capacityconstraint theory, which asserts that nega ve net worth shocks caused by such things as large natural catastrophes lead to rapid price increases (a hard market), which then erode slowly as net worth adjusts (a so market). The insurance pricing cycle can be viewed in terms of supply -and-demand economics. Surplus is a measurement of underwri ng capacity. When the supply of insurance capacity increases faster than the demand for capacity, prices fall. Conversely, when supply constricts rela ve to demand, prices increase. In the so phase of the cycle, prices are falling due to an abundance of insurance capacity rela ve to wavering demand. Insurers are overcapitalized during so markets, and they compete to put the excess capacity to work. We can use GDP as a proxy for demand. The change in GDP represents the change in demand for insurance capacity. Because most companies already are fully insured, the need to buy more insurance is directly ed to growth, represented by the change in GDP. Growth in policyholders surplus measures a company s overall financial condi on. Major changes in policyholders surplus mark instability and are concerning, whether it is an increase or decrease in surplus. Surplus tends to move up and down more than demand for insurance. As surplus falls, insurance companies are more selec ve of risk and the industry becomes less compe ve, as the market hardens. As surplus rises, the industry becomes more compe ve and rates fall. Insurers use the extra capital to write risks they might not ordinarily consider, leading to a so market. Increasing values in the surplus-to-gdp ra o mean growth in supply (policyholders surplus) exceeds the growth in demand (GDP), ul mately leading to falling premiums. Conversely, when values are decreasing, it means supply is shrinking rela ve to demand (or demand is increasing faster than supply), and premiums eventually will rise. The role of reinsurance in underwri ng cycles pertains to the supply of capital. When availability of reinsurance is abundant, insurers may be willing to write addi onal risk (Continued on page 19) 18 July 2014 CIPR Newsle er

4 and use reinsurance to hedge against losses. In addi on to reinsurance, other mechanisms that allow insurers to write policies and assign risk have a similar impact on the supply of insurance. For example, the price of catastrophe bonds may influence underwri ng cycles, as they are used to insure against natural disaster. A lack of supply in capital markets, such as during recessionary mes or market crashes, leads to restricted access to reinsurance and insurers are less willing to insure risk. Restricted access to reinsurance and, further, a reduced supply of insurance, leads to a hard market. One way surplus can fall is through another exogenous shock of which insurers are well aware: catastrophes. This theory of the underwri ng cycle focuses on external shocks such as natural catastrophic events. Such shocks can be planned for to an extent, but no one knows for certain if or when they will occur. The property/casualty insurance industry an cipates large losses through its surplus, but enormous losses are o en large enough to turn a market. As large catastrophes occur, surplus can fall, causing companies to be more selec ve of risks and the industry to be less compe ve, turning the market hard. Recent catastrophes, such as the terrorism events of 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina in 2005, have resulted in large losses but have failed to significantly impact the overall surplus of the industry. A L O E Before examining where the property/casualty underwri ng cycle might currently stand, we will first look at the overall economy. As noted earlier, economic condi ons can have a large impact on the underwri ng cycle. Despite some signs of an improving economy, real GDP surprisingly declined 2.9% in the first quarter of The slowdown reflected a downturn in exports, business investment, inventory investment and consumer spending. Growth in GDP can be seen as a prerequisite for demand for insurance. As market growth occurs, so does the need to increase insurance. This can be seen as inventories and labor markets grow. The Federal Reserve Bank purchased more than $3 trillion in government bonds since the 2008 global financial crisis. This was done in an effort to lower long-term interest rates and s mulate the economy. Meanwhile, the central bank has kept its short-term interest rate near zero since the crisis began. While there are mixed reviews regarding the actual effects of the Fed s a empted s mula on of the economy, one thing is for sure: rates will have to rise at some point. As stated above, an increase in interest rates may increase insurer s investment income, leading to a so market. T C S U C The industry experienced a so market post-2003 as premium growth declined, and actually became nega ve in 2008 and Since then, the market has shown signs of hardening, with price increases in many lines, par cularly commercial ones. Rates rose in 2013 due to above average losses and low investment returns. The combined ra o for 2013 fell to 95.8% from 103.7% in This marks the first year of underwri ng profit since 2007 (Figure 2). Wri en premiums in 2013 increased to $486 billion from $465 billion in Property/casualty insurance premium has been rising in recent years due to higher prices and increased exposures in the slowly expanding economy (Figure 3 on the following page). (Continued on page 20) F 2: C R A P C L Unemployment was unchanged in May at 6.3% a er falling by 0.4% in April. Over the past 10 years, unemployment peaked in 2009 at 9.9%. This was a marked increase from the 4.4% unemployment rate in Since 2009, unemployment has steadily come down to the 6.3% seen today. Infla on rose by 1.4% in the first quarter of 2014 a er rising 1.5% in the fourth quarter of The price of goods and services, excluding food and energy, rose 1.4% in the first quarter versus 1.8% in the fourth quarter of As infla- on rises so, too, may an cipated losses due to increased nominal se lement values. Source: NAIC Property/Casualty Annual Statement Blank, Insurance Expense Exhibit; Group Accident and Health, Other Accident and Health, Interna onal, Reinsurance nonpropor onal assured. July 2014 CIPR Newsle er 19

5 F 3: T P /C, C P W ($000 ) The capacity-constraint theory showed the insurance pricing cycle is driven by the law of supply and demand. For the past several years, the supply of insurance capacity has exceeded the demand for capacity, forcing prices down. For the market to fully harden, demand will need to increase with an improved economy and increased exposures or the supply will need to fall via a decrease in surplus (Figure 5). The property/casualty insurance industry was profitable from 2003 through 2007; however, rates declined a er that. Profitability remains weak, although it increased in 2013 due to low catastrophe losses and favorable combined ra os. Underwri ng results were much improved although investment results remain tepid (Figure 6 on the following page). Overall, it is difficult to say where the industry currently sits in the underwri ng cycle. Certainly, the so market seems to have turned, but we appear to be in a weak hard market. In addi on, recent history shows that cycles do not seem as severe. Source: NAIC. Policyholders surplus in the U.S. property/casualty industry is at a record high of $665 billion at year-end 2013 (Figure 4). W A C Several factors are typically needed to turn a market. One is a sustained period of large losses. The insurance industry experienced near-record insured catastrophe losses in 2011 and The average insured catastrophic losses in the U.S. are around $20 billion; losses were $33 billion and $35 billion in 2011 and 2012, respec vely. However, 2013 saw much be er results with insured catastrophe losses at only $13 billion. Another factor that can turn a market is a decline in surplus or capacity. Policyholders surplus in the U.S. property/ casualty industry is at a record high of $665 billion at year- (Continued on page 21) F 4: S ($ B ) F 5: S /GDP Source: NAIC. Sources: NAIC and Bureau of Economic Analysis. 20 July 2014 CIPR Newsle er

6 F 6: P P /C I I Source: NAIC Report on Profitability By Line By State and NAIC Annual Statement Blanks. end Figure 4 on the previous page shows surplus has con nued to rise in recent years. A weak growth in demand has been insufficient to absorb the excess capacity. Commercial and personal lines rates have started to move upward. As noted earlier, the combined ra o was low last year, with the industry exhibi ng underwri ng discipline. Recently, insiders have predicted the market to harden due to low interest rates, but this has only par ally occurred. A recent Towers Watson survey found that 75% of responding chief financial officers believe the property market is hardening or already at the top of the cycle. As we ve seen, surplus has not declined, but instead is at a record high. This has put pressure on the hardening of the market. Record levels of surplus and aggressive compe on are modera ng the growth in price increases. Low interest rates have tempered investment earnings. Most think prices will rise but capacity is high and compe on remains strong, so it is doub ul if rate increases will be extreme. Catastrophe losses are the great unknown. Significant rate increases seem unlikely unless there is an exogenous shock to the industry, such as a major catastrophic event. S Even with the tremendous amount of research devoted to underwri ng cycles, they remain unpredictable and, at mes, difficult to even define, at least in present terms. Their importance, however, remains paramount for the industry and for regulators. A A Aaron Brandenburg is an Economist and Sta- s cal Informa on Manager with the NAIC and has been with the organiza on for nine years. He conducts economic and sta s cal research for the NAIC and its members on a wide range of issues. He has assisted in the authoring of several NAIC publica ons, given presenta ons to numerous insurance-related groups and provided support for several NAIC working groups. Brandenburg earned a Bachelor of Science in Economics and Bachelor of Arts in History from the University of Iowa and a Master of Arts in Economics from the University of Missouri-Kansas City. He also holds Chartered Property Casualty Underwriter (CPCU) and Associate in Risk Management (ARM) designa ons. Jennifer Gardner is a research analyst with the NAIC. Jennifer joined the organiza on in She conducts economic and sta s cal research for the NAIC and its members. She is responsible for publishing sta s cal and market share reports, provides support for numerous NAIC working groups and assists the state insurance departments in data collec on related to catastrophe. Jennifer earned a bachelor s degree in business administra on with an emphasis in finance from the University of Missouri-Kansas City. Prior to joining the NAIC Research and Actuarial Department, Jennifer worked on the State Based Systems (SBS) products and services within the NAIC. July 2014 CIPR Newsle er 21

7 NAIC Central Office Center for Insurance Policy and Research 1100 Walnut Street, Suite 1500 Kansas City, MO Phone: Fax: To subscribe to the CIPR mailing list, please or Copyright 2014 Na onal Associa on of Insurance Commissioners, all rights reserved. The Na onal Associa on of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) is the U.S. standard-se ng and regulatory support organiza on created and governed by the chief insurance regulators from the 50 states, the District of Columbia and five U.S. territories. Through the NAIC, state insurance regulators establish standards and best prac ces, conduct peer review, and coordinate their regulatory oversight. NAIC staff supports these efforts and represents the collec ve views of state regulators domes cally and interna onally. NAIC members, together with the central resources of the NAIC, form the na onal system of state-based insurance regula on in the U.S. For more informa on, visit The views expressed in this publica on do not necessarily represent the views of NAIC, its officers or members. All informa on contained in this document is obtained from sources believed by the NAIC to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, such informa on is provided as is without warranty of any kind. NO WARRANTY IS MADE, EXPRESS OR IM- PLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY OPINION OR INFORMATION GIVEN OR MADE IN THIS PUBLICATION. This publica on is provided solely to subscribers and then solely in connec on with and in furtherance of the regulatory purposes and objec ves of the NAIC and state insurance regula on. Data or informa on discussed or shown may be confiden al and or proprietary. Further distribu on of this publica on by the recipient to anyone is strictly prohibited. Anyone desiring to become a subscriber should contact the Center for Insurance Policy and Research Department directly. July 2014 CIPR Newsle er 35

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