How will business leaders vote?

Transcription

1 October 20, 2008 How will business leaders vote? The following survey was conducted by Epic-MRA on behalf of Crain's Detroit Business and Honigman Miller Schwartz and Cohn L.L.P. to assess how business leaders in Southeast Michigan may vote on a variety of issues affecting businesses. The margin of error for each sample of 300 readers was ±5.7% In questions 1-6, those surveyed were asked general questions referring to the election. 01. Thinking about the general election for president coming up in November of this year, which of the following issues will influence you the most in deciding which candidate for president you will vote for? 12% Tax issues 6% The war in Iraq 64% The economy 2% The price of gas and oil 4% Health care policy 1% Immigration 4% Social issues 2% Trade policy 5% Undecided/Don t know/refused 02. How much will your opinion about the character of the candidate and whether or not you personally like the candidate influence your decision -- will it be more important than the issue you picked, less important, or will it be about the same importance? 34% More important than the issue chosen 25% Less important than the issue chosen 40% About the same importance as the issue chosen Do you recognize the names of these political figures, and if you do, do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person.

2 2 NAMES DON T RECOG VERY FAVOR TOTAL FAVOR TOTAL UNFAV VERY UNFAV REF UNDEC John McCain -- 29% 64% 26% 14% 10% Barack Obama -- 26% 48% 42% 27% 10% Sarah Palin -- 27% 50% 39% 27% 11% Joe Biden -- 21% 49% 39% 20% 12% In questions 7-9, those surveyed were asked questions relating to the state of Michigan s economy. 07. Overall, how satisfied are you with the condition of Michigan s economy -- very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied? 1% Very Satisfied 3% Somewhat Satisfied TOTAL SATISFIED 4% 11% Somewhat Dissatisfied TOTAL DISSATISFIED 95% 84% Very Dissatisfied 08. Do you think the U.S. economy is getting stronger, getting weaker, or staying about the same? 2% Getting stronger 88% Getting weaker 9% Staying about the same 09. Do you think that your personal or family financial situation is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? 11% Getting better 51% Getting worse 37% Staying about the same In questions 10-16, those surveyed were asked specific questions relating to the candidates. 10. If the election for President were held today, would you vote for John McCain the Republican, Barack Obama the Democrat, Ralph Nader the Independent, or Bob Barr the Libertarian? If you are undecided, would you lean toward John McCain the Republican, Barack Obama the Democrat, Ralph Nader the Independent, or Bob Barr the Libertarian?

3 3 43% Vote for John McCain the Republican GO TO Q S 11 TO 13 4% Lean toward John McCain GO TO Q S 11 TO 13 TOTAL McCAIN 47% 33% Vote for Barack Obama the Democrat --- GO TO Q S 14 TO 16 1% Lean toward Barack Obama GO TO Q S 14 TO 16 TOTAL OBAMA 34% 1% Vote for Ralph Nader the Independent GO TO Q. 17 1% Lean toward Nader GO TO Q. 17 TOTAL NADER 2% 1% Vote for Bob Barr the Libertarian GO TO Q Lean toward Barr GO TO Q. 17 TOTAL BARR 1% 16% Undecided/Don t know/refused GO TO Q Have you ruled out voting for Barack Obama the Democrat and are pretty certain that you will vote for John McCain the Republican, or, are you still considering Barack Obama and might change your mind and vote for him? 82% Ruled out Obama and certain to be voting for McCain 17% Still considering Obama and may change mind 1% Unsure 12. What is the main reason why you are voting for John McCain? 24% Experience 3% Conservative 12% Party affiliation 3% Like him in general 11% Tax policy 3% Morals 10% Policies in general 2% Government size/spending 9% Economy 2% National security policy 8% Honesty 1% Bring change 6% Best choice 1% Iraq policy 3% Business policy 1% Strong leader 13. What would you say is the main reason why you are NOT voting for Barack Obama? 28% Experience 2% Abortion 11% Tax policy 2% Morals 10% Honesty 1% Dislike in general 8% Government size/spending 1% Foreign policy 7% Economy 1% Health care policy 7% Party affiliation 1% National security policy 7% Policies in general 1% Ruin the U.S. 4% Liberal 1% Social issues 4% Radical/Islamic affiliation 1% Worst choice 3% Not a leader 14. Have you ruled out voting for John McCain the Republican and are pretty certain that you will vote for Barack Obama the Democrat, or, are you still considering John McCain and might change your mind and vote for him? 82% Ruled out McCain and certain to be voting for Obama 17% Still considering McCain and may change mind

4 4 1% Unsure 15. What is the main reason why you are voting for Barack Obama? 24% Will bring change 3% Palin 17% Policies in general 3% Social issues 11% Economy 2% Not Bush 9% Party affiliation 1% Abortion 5% Best choice 1% Business policy 5% Iraq policy 1% Education policy 5% Strong leader 1% Experience 3% Health care policy 1% Foreign policy 3% Honesty 1% Like in general 3% Morals 1% Undecided 16. What would you say is the main reason why you are NOT voting for John McCain? 18% More of the same 4% Dislike in general 18% Policies in general 3% Undecided 11% Palin 2% Conservative 10% Iraq policy 2% Morals 7% Age 2% Not a leader 7% Economy 2% Ruin the U.S. 7% Honesty 1% Abortion 5% Party affiliation 1% Worst choice In questions 17-25, those surveyed were asked questions relating to the current and future state of Michigan s and the national economy. 17. Do you think that Michigan s economy will improve this year, get worse, or remain about the same? 11% Improve 57% Get worse 29% Remain about the same 3% Undecided/Don t know/refused 18. Thinking about your business the rest of this year, do you think that the outlook for your business will improve, get worse or remain about the same? 21% Improve 28% Get worse 49% Remain about the same 2% Undecided/Don t know/refused 19. How much have you been following the situation with national banking system and financial markets very closely, somewhat closely, only a little or not at all?

5 5 58% Very closely 36% Somewhat closely 6% Only a little -- Not at all -- Undecided/Don t know/refused 20. Generally speaking, do you favor or oppose the federal government taking action to intervene in the private financial sector, either by guaranteeing loans to for-profit corporations such as banks, insurance companies, investment firms and mortgage lenders, or by even more direct takeover of those troubled companies? 17% Strongly Favor 30% Somewhat favor TOTAL FAVOR 47% 22% Somewhat oppose TOTAL OPPOSE 46% 24% Strongly oppose 7% Undecided/Don t know/refused 21. Congress passed a comprehensive plan to shore up the entire private financial sector of the economy. While the exact details of how the plan will be executed are unclear, its basic premise is to commit up to an estimated $700 billion in taxpayer money to purchase otherwise unmarketable mortgage-backed securities from a wide collection of large private companies such as banks and investment firms, in order to loosen credit and encourage borrowing in the private market and avoid a potential collapse in the American economy. Based on what you know about this action, do you favor or oppose a plan to provide this federal financial assistance to the private sector? 17% Strongly Favor 32% Somewhat favor TOTAL FAVOR 49% 15% Somewhat oppose TOTAL OPPOSE 45% 30% Strongly oppose 6% Undecided/Don t know/refused 22. Thinking about the amount of federal regulations that there are in place to control the actions of banks, lending institutions and our financial markets, do you think there are currently enough federal regulations in place to deal with the actions of our financial institutions, should there be more regulations, or, should there be fewer regulations? 40% There should be much more regulations 27% There should be somewhat more regulations TOTAL MORE 67% 17% There are currently enough regulations 7% There should be somewhat fewer regulations TOTAL FEWER 9% 2% There should be much fewer regulations 7% Undecided/Don t know/refused 23. Generally speaking, do you favor or oppose the federal government providing loans to U.S. automakers and suppliers? 16% Strongly Favor

6 26% Somewhat favor TOTAL FAVOR 42% 25% Somewhat oppose TOTAL OPPOSE 50% 25% Strongly oppose 8% Undecided/Don t know/refused Specifically, the big three auto makers, Ford, Chrysler and General Motors, have proposed that the federal government provide $25 billion in loans to help them pay to retool their plants to manufacture more fuel efficient cars, as well as electric, battery operated cars. Based on what you know, do you favor or oppose this proposal? 50% Strongly Favor 23% Somewhat favor TOTAL FAVOR 73% 10% Somewhat oppose TOTAL OPPOSE 24% 14% Strongly oppose 3% Undecided/Don t know/refused 25. Overall, do you favor or oppose the proposals that would provide either a government funded or a government subsidized health care program that would cover everyone? 22% Strongly Favor 16% Somewhat favor TOTAL FAVOR 38% 15% Somewhat oppose TOTAL OPPOSE 54% 39% Strongly oppose 8% Undecided/Don t know/refused In questions 26-27, those surveyed were asked questions regarding the business taxes. 26. In 2007, the Michigan Legislature replaced the Single Business Tax with a new Michigan Business Tax, or MBT. In addition, the Legislature passed and quickly repealed a Use Tax on some services. To fill the revenue gap left by the repeal of the use tax on services, a 22% surcharge to last ten years was added to the MBT. Thinking about the tax impact on your business, which of the business taxes the SBT, or the MBT with the surcharge, is the more fair tax? 30% SBT GO TO Q % MBT w/surcharge GO TO Q % Both are unfair /Neither are fair GO TOQ % Undecided/Don t know/refused GO TO Q Last week, the State Senate voted to accelerate the expiration of the 22% surcharge from 10 years, to a phase-out over 3 years; having the surcharge expire in Thinking about the effect on your business, does accelerating the removal of the 22% surcharge, from 10 years to 3 years, make the MBT a Fair replacement for the SBT, or was the SBT a fairer tax than the MBT even with an accelerated removal of the 22% surcharge? 16% Amended MBT is a Fair replacement 26% SBT was Fairer 11% It doesn t make any difference

7 12% Both are unfair/ Neither are fair 35% Undecided/Don t know/refused 7 In questions 28-33, those surveyed were asked questions relating to various proposals and ballot issues. 28. A proposal to permit the use and cultivation of marijuana for specified medical purposes. Based on what you know or may have heard about this proposal, if the election were held today, would you vote YES to support the ballot proposal to allow the use of medical marijuana, or would you vote NO to oppose it? If undecided, which way would you lean, Yes, to support the proposal or No to oppose it? 59% YES 1% Lean Yes TOTAL YES 60% 33% NO TOTAL NO 35% 2% Lean No 5% Undecided/Refused 29. A proposal to amend the state constitution to address human embryo and human embryonic stem cell research in Michigan. Based on what you know or may have heard about this proposal, if the election were held today, would you vote YES to support the ballot proposal to amend the constitution to address the issue of stem cell research or would you vote NO to oppose it? If undecided, which way would you lean, Yes, to support the proposal or No to oppose it? 52% YES 3% Lean Yes TOTAL YES 55% 35% NO TOTAL NO 36% 1% Lean No 9% Undecided/Refused Following is a list of several proposals to address the energy situation. For each one, please tell me if you favor or oppose the proposal? Strgly TOTAL TOTAL Strgly DK Favor Favor Oppose Oppose Undec 30. Lifting the current ban on offshore drilling to allow drilling for oil off the coasts of Florida, California, and other states with ocean shorelines?... 55% 80% 17% 10% 3% 31. Drilling for oil in part of the Alaskan Wildlife Refuge?... 55% 75% 23% 15% 2% 32. Building more nuclear power plants?.. 58% 80% 15% 8% 5% 33. Allowing drilling for oil and gas along the shores of the Great Lakes?... 36% 58% 39% 30% 3%

8 8 In questions 34 37, those surveyed were asked to answer questions about their business. 34. Do you work for a company that sells a product or provides a service? 13% Sells a product 74% Provides a service 12% Both (volunteered) 35. What would you say is the gross dollar amount that your business generates per year? MEDIAN: 2,000,000 MEAN: 91,661, What type of business or industry do you operate? 26% Business services 13% Manufacturing or manufacturing supplier 15% Professional services 9% Finance 7% Retail 5% Non-profit 2% Health care 3% Distribution/trucking 7% Construction 3% Public service 2% Telecommunications 2% Education 3% Hospitality 0% Food service 3% Other -- Undecided/Don t know/refused 37. Sex of respondent 67% Male 33% Female