Transitions. Population and Economic Trends for Colorado

Transcription

1 Transitions Population and Economic Trends for Colorado Cindy DeGroen State Demography Office Colorado Department of Local Affairs

2 State Demography Office State agency Responsible for population data needed by state agencies Department of Local Affairs Prepare data and information in ways that account for local perspectives, needs Public information Make data and information readily available to the public, including citizens, businesses and non-profit agencies Outreach Work with local governments and others to understand what the numbers are saying

3 Main Points Migration how much, where Growth disparate across the state Ethnic/race diversity increasing and aging into labor force. Aging we are getting old fast, labor force, income, industrial mix

4 Big Picture Pop Change US million, million or.8% Colorado - 5,456,500 Ranked 2 nd fastest 1.9% - ND 7 th absolute growth 101,000 TX, FL, CA, GA,WA, NC Range in Colorado +15,000 to % to -3.5%

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10 State Demography Office v2014

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12 State Demography Office

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14 Forecast

15 Population forecast methodology Economic forecast Cohort-component Jobs - 2 nd & 3 rd job - Commuters +Births - Deaths + Net Migration X LFPR Labor Demand Labor Supply Differences resolved by net migration

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18 Factors Growing Forward? Current Conditions as a base. National/International Conditions Build Out Cost of Living Competition with lower cost states. Water

19 Median Home Value

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21 Increasing Diversity

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23 Census Bureau

24 Share of Net Increase in Working Age Population, American Indian, NH Black, NH White, NH Asian, NH Hispanic 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

25 Age

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27 Why Are We Getting Old Fast? Currently very few people over the age th lowest share of all states in US (10%) Baby Boomers Born ,340,000 Boomers in Colorado (26% of pop. in 2010) By 2030, Colorado s population 65+ will be 125% larger than it was in 2010 growing from 555,000 to 1,243,000. (just from aging) Transition age distribution from young to more US average between 2010 and State Demography Office, Census Bureau

28 Growth in young adults due to migration Demographic Dividend AGE

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30 Aging Issues Numbers Economic Driver - wealthier. depends Impact on occupational mix Labor Force Housing Income Downward Pressure Health Disabilities Transportation Public Finance Downward Pressure

31 Aging and Public Finance Ratio of 65+ per year olds in CO Becoming more normal End of the demographic dividend Public Finance change in revenue and expenditures. Income tax downward pressure Sales tax downward pressure Property tax downward pressure Health services increasing Medicaid increasing Transition

32 Income

33 Household Income.its future is demographically challenged. Age distributions End of Demographic Dividend Occupational Mix high and low service More race/ethnicity diverse especially at young end but achievement gap is growing as well. Household type and size single and smaller. Youth un and under employment - Long term permanent impacts on earnings. State Demography Office

34 Census Bureau and Incomes-by-Age-Brackets.php

35 To Ponder in My Community Income Challenges how could downward pressure impact our community? Migration how much, where, and can we compete for the best and the brightest? Aging we are getting old fast, is my community ready for the changes to the labor force, income, industrial mix, housing, etc. Growth disparate across the state, what is causing it and what can be done? Ethnic/race diversity increasing and aging into labor force. Educational attainment gap continues putting downward pressure on income. What is being done?

36 Thank you State Demography Office Department of Local Affairs Cindy DeGroen

37 Historical projections Most state & local population projections have a Mean Average Percent Error (MAPE) of 6-7% for 10 year projections and 11-15% for 20 years 1. Demography Office MAPES 10 Year ( ): 5.2% 20 Year (1988, 92, 93, 95): 14.3% Migration most variable component. 1 "State and Local Population Projections" Smith, Tayman, and Swanson.