What do we know FOR SURE?
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- Damon O’Connor’
- 5 years ago
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2 What do we know FOR SURE? It s a whole new world. Not just a cycle. We must go forward, we can t go back. The combination of factors creates a whole new economy, requiring new analysis What s Next? Real Estate in the New Economy
3 The New Economy Globalization Of capital Rise of the rest Instant technology Information Ownership? Of labor New outsourcing World labor pool
4 Change in all aspects of life Work Jobs, Work force, Regional disparities Live Housing, Demand, Size Connect Technology, Office Space Move--Infrastructure Renew Sustainability Trends Invest Capital Markets and Finance
5 New Demographics U.S. Age Cohorts Gen Y: 85 million + Silent (82+) Gen X: 41 million Boomers: 81 million Gen Next Gen Y War Babies Boomers War Babies (66-81) Boomers (47-65) Gen X (34-46) Depression/Silent: 40 million Gen X Gen Y (16-33) Gen Next (<15) Source: US Census
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7 A New Math
8 Going Forward Modest additional labor force participation at younger level, less in age group + 55 Keep working!
9 Employment Changes Manufacturing Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services U.S. Metro % Change % Change % Change RESEARCH TRI % % % SAN DIEGO % % % PHILADELPHIA % % % BOSTON % % % RICHMOND % % % WASHINGTON % % % DENVER % % % BALTIMORE % % % SAN FRAN % % % PITTSBURGH % % % USA % % % Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)
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11 Young Adult Degree Attainment Ages MA (49%) MN, ND, CT, CO, NY, NJ, MD, IL (42%) Canada (55%) Japan (54%) Korea (53%) US (39%) UT, MT, MI, NC, GA, CA, FL (34%) AZ, SC, TX, TN (29%) WVA, NV (24%) Mexico (19%) Source: Lumina Foundation
12 Top Ten Education Metros
13 New Realities World Increase in University Attendance: % 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Competition Heats Up 150 million university attendees in 2007, worldwide, 70 million in Asia New universities being built, fierce market for top talent Technology resets the deck Hollowing-out of middle Source: Chronicle of Higher Education
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15 Where Will Jobs Come From? Manufacturing continues decline, with some CAD bright spots Dramatic rise in eds and meds Anchor institutions Need: capital, business climate, college
16 Real Estate Impacts Good Things Jobs will continue to cluster around eds and meds Jobs will cluster around places with a better educated work force Most growth is urban America is still wildly entrepreneurial and leads in venture capital Challenges We MUST ramp up education/training with an urgency Funding for r&d needs to increase Reduce barriers sensibly Balance sustainable growth with budget cuts
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18 Apartment Living on the Rise
19 Millions Young Surge Over 4.3 million people turning 22 through 2017
20 Housing Outlook Smaller homes More multigenerational More convenient Transit Linked Housing Demand Increased Rental
21 Small is Beautiful Decade? Average Square Feet of Floor Area in New Single-Family Houses Completed Source: Census and NAHB 2,600 2,500 2,400 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 Attached? Starter homes? Little boxes?
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23 Housing Trends Less homeownership Less mobility More multigenerational More energy efficient, smaller Closer to transit Mixed-use
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25 Whose Office Is It? Smaller space/employee More collaboration Fun shops Near transit In cities, e.g. Google, Facebook Are they working??? Where is the office???
26 Changes in Space/Worker? US New York San Francisco Current level SF/job Current vacancy 17% 9% 14% Scenario 1: Reduce 10 sf/job New level of sf/job New vacancy 24% 12% 18% Scenario 2: Reduce by 20 sf/job New level of sf/job New vacancy 31% 16% 21% Source: BLS, CBRE-EA RREEF Research, as of Q1, 2011
27 All About Choice Choice is expanded For employers Investors Workers Leaders Mass customization What do I need? What do I want? Where can I get it? What does it cost?
28 New face of retail Internet sales Cut out the middle Experience retail Food still strong Services rise Creative destruction
29 Heard on the road Location: Urban Urbanizing suburbs Outer edges weak Transit access Centrality: Equally inconvenient A new place
30 Heard on the road: Office Update Technical requirements key Can you hear me now? New floor plates Energy Star, LEED Much more customer focus Landlord absorbs costs for: Amenities Health club Conference spaces Mixed-use preferred
31 Opportunity Areas Come Together as a Region Education, education, education Infrastructure Innovation Invest LEADERSHIP
32 The New Yorker Collection from cartoonbank.com. All Rights Reserved.
33 THANK YOU! uli.org
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