Growing Colorado. Population Transitions In Boulder

Transcription

1 Growing Colorado Population Transitions In Boulder Elizabeth Garner State Demography Office Colorado Department of Local Affairs 2018 Demography.dola.colorado.gov

2 Transitions to Watch Disparate growth across the state. Migration attracting and retaining the best and brightest. Can we continue to do it? Do we want to? And where do we put them? Aging impacts everything including the economy. Changes to industries retail, manuf., construction Increase racial and ethnic diversity. Population growing at a slowing rate

3 Big Picture Pop Change US million, million or.7% Colorado - 5,607,154 Ranked 9 th fastest 1.4% - ID, NV, UT, WA, FL 8 th in total growth 77,049 TX, FL, CA, WA, NC, GA, AZ Growth of 578,000 since 2010

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9 Total Population Areaname 2010 Tp16 Abs Change Ann Avg Pct Change Total Ch Pct Ch COLORADO 5,050,332 5,538, , % 90, % ADAMS 443, ,673 53, % 7, % ARAPAHOE 574, ,254 62, % 8, % BOULDER 295, ,989 26, % 3, % BROOMFIELD 56,107 66,252 10, % 1, % DENVER 604, ,292 88, % 12, % DOUGLAS 287, ,330 41, % 6, % JEFFERSON 535, ,711 36, % 7, % LARIMER 300, ,663 38, % 5, % WELD 254, ,397 40, % 9, %

10 Population Change Change Ann. Ave % Ch BOULDER 295, ,989 26, % Boulder 97, ,789 9, % Erie (Part) 8,409 9,769 1, % Jamestown (27) -1.7% Lafayette 24,553 28,326 3, % (Part) 86,409 93,254 6, % Louisville 18,412 20,643 2, % Lyons 2,038 1,923 (115) -1.0% Nederland 1,447 1, % Superior (Part) 12,501 13, % Ward % Unincorp. Area 43,484 45,173 1, %

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14 100,000 80,000 Colorado New Jobs and Net Migration New Jobs Net Migration 60,000 40,000 20, ,000 40,000 Source: State Demography Office

15 Employment Change by Sector 2016 vs. Pre recession Peak Health Services Government Professional & Technical services Accommodation & Food Education Other Services Admin & Waste Retail Trade Transportation & warehousing Arts, Entertainment & Rec. Management of Companies Agriculture Real estate Wholesale trade Utilities Financial Activities Manufacturing Mining Information Construction 20, ,000 40,000 60,000 80, ,000

16 Migration Characteristics Boulder Current In Migrants Never married 28% 63% Now married 55% 26% Divorced 11% 8% Separated Widowed 1% 4% 1% 2% Income by Geographic Mobility Boulder Current In Migrant No income 10% 12% $1 to $9,999 or loss 15% 32% $10,000 to $14,999 7% 9% $15,000 to $24,999 11% 12% $25,000 to $34,999 10% 8% $35,000 to $49,999 11% 9% $50,000 to $64,999 9% 5% $65,000 to $74,999 $75,000 or more 4% 23% 2% 10%

17 AGE MATTERS Why? Preferences Housing Income Service Demands Labor Force

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20 We Are Aging Fast.. Currently very few people over the age th lowest share of all states in US (13%) in rd fastest growth in the US Baby Boomers Born ,360,000 Boomers in Colorado (25% of pop. in 2015) increase 719,000 to 1,270,000. or 77% (primarily from aging) Transition age distribution from young to more US average between 2015 and State Demography Office, Census Bureau

21 Growth in young adults due to migration Demographic Dividend Aging AGE

22 Source: State Demography Office, 2015

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26 Aging Issues Numbers Economic Driver - wealthier. depends Impact on occupational mix. Growing at 6% per year Labor Force Housing Non - movers Income Downward Pressure Health Disabilities Transportation Public Finance Downward Pressure

27 Working Age Population in Colorado Colorado s population of working age will continue to grow more slowly than Colorado s population as a whole.

28 Ethnicity/Race increasing

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31 Share of Net Increase in Working Age Population, American Indian, NH Black, NH White, NH Asian, NH Hispanic 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

32 Growth is Slowing

33 Population forecast methodology Economic forecast Jobs -2 nd & 3 rd job - Commuters Cohort-component +Births - Deaths + Net Migration X LFPR Labor Demand Labor Supply Differences resolved by net migration

34 Colorado and U.S. Growth Rates US forecast prepared by U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2014.

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37 Population Forecast Total Ch Ann Ave. Pct Ch Adams 489, , , , , % Arapahoe 629, , , , , % Boulder 318, , , ,540 96, % Broomfield 64,656 75,627 96,097 97,318 32, % Denver 680, , , , , % Douglas 322, , , , , % Jefferson 564, , , , , % Larimer 332, , , , , % Weld 284, , , , , % El Paso 676, , , , , %

38 Risks (plus or minus) National Growth National Policies Intl immigration Water Housing supply, price, type, location Infrastructure/Transportation State Budget/Policy Aging labor force, prepared labor force Industry changes downturn, bust, recession, competitiveness. Natural disasters - nationally

39 Is Affordability a Concern? Change in Median Home Value District of Columbia 125,200 Nevada (71,800) Colorado 80,300 California (54,800) North Dakota 77,300 Rhode Island (45,100) Montana 47,200 New Jersey (44,100) South Dakota 42,000 Maryland (40,100) Change in Median Household Income District of Columbia 21,189 Nevada 118 North Dakota 16,903 Puerto Rico 2,337 Massachusetts 12,932 Florida 3,056 Alaska 12,107 Arizona 3,669 Washington 11,515 Louisiana 4,220 Colorado 10,473 Change in Median Home Value - Median Household Income District of Columbia 104,011 Nevada (71,918) Colorado 69,827 California (62,591) North Dakota 60,397 New Jersey (53,191) Montana 40,704 Rhode Island (52,128) Texas 31,583 Maryland (50,965) Source: American Community Survey 2007, 2016

40 Summary Trends Disparate growth what is causing it and what can be done? Can linkages be created between Metro and Non- Metro. Migration how do we attract the best fit for the jobs and where do we house them? What if we can t attract? Aging we are getting old fast, is the state ready for the opportunities and changes to the labor force, income, industrial mix, housing, etc. Colorado is becoming more racially and ethnically diverse, especially those currently under the age of 24. Continued growth but slowing.

41 Thank you State Demography Office Department of Local Affairs Elizabeth Garner Demography.dola.colorado.gov