2016 State of the City Mayor Mike Rawlings. December 2016

Transcription

1 2016 State of the City Mayor Mike Rawlings December 2016

2 Police & Fire Pension: Assets Projected to Expire Between 2027 & 2030, Depending on Rate of Withdrawal $3.0B $2.5B $2.0B $1.5B $1.0B $0.5B $0.0B MVA - Current Plan MVA - Immediate DROP Withdrawals Source: City Council Briefing, Dec

3 Police & Fire Pension: Recent Run on Funds Creating Near-Term Liquidity Concern $900,000,000 $800,000,000 Gross Liquid Assets as of 11/25/16 Under Varying DROP Scenarios DPFP Gross Liquid Assets $700,000,000 $600,000,000 $500,000,000 $400,000,000 $300,000,000 $200,000,000 $100,000,000 $0 11/11/ /9/2016 1/6/2017 2/3/2017 3/3/2017 3/31/2017 4/28/2017 $36M/week $10M/week $20M/week w/call 5/26/2017 6/23/2017 7/21/2017 8/18/2017 9/15/ /13/ /10/ /8/2017 $20M/week $36M/week w/call $10M/week w/call 1/5/2018 2/2/2018 Source: City Council Briefing, Dec

4 Poverty: Dallas Has Highest Rate of Childhood Poverty of Any City With Population Over 1 Million % of Children in Poverty DALLAS PHILADELPHIA HOUSTON PHOENIX LOS ANGELES CHICAGO SAN ANTONIO NEW YORK CITY 38% 37% 35% 34% 33% 33% 31% 30% SAN DIEGO 20% SAN JOSE 10% Source: Kids Count data 4

5 Poverty: High Teenage Pregnancy Rates Contributing to Poverty Cycle 27 Teen Birth Rate (per 1000 births) in certain zip codes, a teen girl has a higher chance of giving birth before age 19 than ever attending college - North Texas Alliance to Reduce Teen Pregnancy US Texas Dallas County Dallas NTARuPT Zip Codes Zip codes 75203, 75212, 75215, 75216, and have teen birth rates similar to Burkina Faso, the Gambia and Somalia Source: North Texas Alliance to Reduce Teen Pregnancy 5

6 Education: Quality of Public Schools #1 Concern of Dallas Voters 2x Greater Than Next Issue 31% Quality of Public School Education Gun owner rights 3% 4% Traffic 5% 5% Property Tax Relief Access to Healthcare 6% Obamacare 10% Illegal Immigration 14% 11% Crime and Drugs 12% Jobs and the Economy Source: The Eppstein Group, June 17-19, 2016 Something Else / Undecided 6

7 Education: Progress on Multiple Fronts Early Childhood Education Since 2012 Improvement Required Schools Since % Children Enrolled in Pre-K + 5% 3 rd Grade Literacy Rate Dallas ISD -21 IR Schools -14,209 Students (-47%) Students Houston ISD -3 IR Schools +2,000 Students (+7%) Students Test Score Improvement + 40% College Ready STAAR Assessments (Since 2012) + >30% IR School 5 th Gr. Math & 8 th Gr. Science scores (Since 2014) Collegiate Academies 18 by Fall Corporate Partnerships Source: The Commit! Partnership 7

8 Education: >40 Institutions Now Partnering With DISD Collegiate Academies in 18 High Schools 8

9 Dallas Economy: Strong & Expected to Continue Growing $115 Property Tax Base Values (Billion $s) $105 $95 $85 $90.5B 2009 $82.0B FY 2012A $100.3B FY 2016A $110.4B FY 2017P $75 $65 $66.5B FY 2004A $55 $45 $44.3B FY 1992A $35 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas-Beige Book July

10 Overall City Growth: New Dallas Permits Exceeding Total Value of Addison/Rockwall Tax Base City of Dallas: Annual New Permit Valuations $5.0B $4.67B $4.5B $4.0B Up 105% Since 2012 $4.32B $4.30B $4.31B $3.5B $3.31B $3.0B $2.5B $2.28B $2.62B $2.0B FY11/12 FY12/13 FY13/14 FY14/15 FY15/16 Addison Total Tax Base Rockwall Total Tax Base Source: Single Family Housing Task Force Meeting, Nov

11 Jobs: Strong Growth Across Sectors in City of Dallas & Broader DFW Area 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Estimated Job Growth by Sector City of Dallas & DFW Metro Area -2.0% Natural Resources Mfg. Trade, Trans, & Utilities Information Fin. Prof. & Bus. Svcs Ed. & Health Svcs Leisure & Hosp. Other Svcs Govt. City of Dallas DFW Area Source: City of Dallas Office of Economic Development estimates 11

12 Dallas Continues to Attract Major Corporate HQs Headquarter Relocations to DFW from Source: Dallas Regional Chamber,

13 Southern Dallas: Increased Investment Leading to Growth in Tax Base $12.5B $12.0B $11.5B Southern Dallas Taxable Property Values $1.6B $11.2B $11.9B $11.0B $10.5B $10.4B $10.4B $10.6B $10.0B $9.5B Taxable Property Values 25% Since 2012 Real Property Values 77 M Annually Residential Investment Source: Grow South Year 5 Presentation 13

14 Southern Dallas: >100% Increase in Annual Permit Values $150M $100M Annual Southern Dallas New Permit Values (Million $ s) $107.8M $133.8M +138% Since FY13/14 $50M $56.2M $0M FY13/14 FY14/15 FY15/16 Source: Single Family Housing Task Force Meeting, Nov

15 Downtown Dallas: By the Numbers 90+ Developments Underway 10,000+ Residents City Center 7,000+ Residential Units Under Construction 94% Occupancy Rate 14+ Hotels Under Construction 50,000+ Residents Greater Downtown 6,400+ Residential Units Announced 72 Restaurants Opening in 2016 Source: Downtown Dallas Inc. 15

16 Airports: Total Metroplex Passenger Traffic up 26%, Led by Strong Growth in DAL & DFW International 85M 70M 55M Metroplex (DFW + DAL) Passenger Traffic Growth (Million passengers) 64.9M 65.8M 66.8M 68.9M 5.5M 5.6M 6.1M 6.7M 8.0M 8.0M 8.2M 8.5M 73.3M 7.2M 9.4M 80.0M 81.4M 7.9M 8.5M 14.5M 15.4M +55% since % since M 25M 51.4M 52.2M 52.5M 53.7M 56.7M 57.6M 57.6M +12% since M 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016P DFW Dom. DAL DFW Intl. Source: DFW Metroplex Passenger Growth Pres. 16

17 Citizen Satisfaction: Trending Positively, Especially When Compared to Other Major Cities Change in Overall Citizen Satisfaction (Indexed to 2009 Scores) Dallas 95.1 Large U.S. Average Overall Quality of Life in Dallas Overall quality of life Overall appearance Overall appearance of Dallas Overall image/ reputation Overall image/ reputation of Dallas Overall quality of service provided by Dallas Overall quality of service provided Value received for City taxes paid Value received for City taxes paid Direction the City is taking Direction the City is taking Citizen Perception of City (% positive response) 46% 45% 35% 49% 34% 77% 68% 70% 61% 73% 63% 63% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Dallas US Cities with pop. >500,000 Source: ETC Institute (2016) 17

18 The Future of Dallas 18

19 The Future: Trinity River Project 19

20 The Future: Fair Park 20

21 The Future: High Speed Rail Note: Image of Tokyo high-speed rail, meant for illustrative purposes 21