JOBS OF THE FUTURE VS. JOBS OF THE PAST

Transcription

1 1

2 JOBS OF THE FUTURE VS. JOBS OF THE PAST The 10 fastest growing occupations The 10 fastest declining occupations Solar photovoltaic installers Wind turbine service technicians Home health aides Personal care aides Physician assistants Nurse practitioners Statisticians Physical therapist assistants Software developers, applications Mathematicians 47% 39% 37% 36% 34% 31% 31% 30% 105% 96% Locomotive firers Respiratory therapy technicians Parking enforcement workers Word processors and typists Watch repairers Electronic equipment installers and Foundry mold and coremakers Pourers and casters, metal Computer operators Telephone operators -79% -56% -35% -33% -30% -26% -24% -23% -23% -23% U U [VA LUE ]k U U U U U U U Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections , Tables 1.3 and 1.5, 2

3 TREND: APPLICATIONS USING ROBOTICS INCREASING AUTOMATED DELIVERY AT WOW BAO ROBOT BARTENDER AT TIPSY ROBOT AUTOMATED MCDONALD S KIOSK ROBOT BARISTA AT CAFÉ X BURGER FLIPPING ROBOT AT CALIBURGER 3

4 TREND: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE EXPANDING Source: Freelancing in America 2017, Freelancers Union & Upwork 4

5 CHALLENGE: WORKERS POTENTIALLY DISPLACED BY AUTOMATION NUMBER OF U.S. WORKERS DISPLACED BY AUTOMATION BY 2030 (in rapid automation scenario) E] million E] million E] million BASED ON RECENT MCKINSEY ANALYSIS, UP TO 33 PERCENT OF THE U.S. WORKFORCE MAY NEED TO CHANGE OCCUPATIONS BY 2030 Source: McKinsey Global Institute, December

6 PREPARING WORKERS FOR THE 21 ST CENTURY ECONOMY WORKERS NEED ACCESS TO TRAINING THAT IS Ø QUALITY Ø AFFORDABLE Ø SKILLS-BASED 6

7 U.S. WORKFORCE TRAINING SYSTEM HAS THREE MAIN COMPONENTS TRADITIONAL EDUCATION BUSINESS INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT 7

8 POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION & TRAINING ANNUAL U.S. SPENDING EMPLOYER-PROIVDED TRAINING AND TRADITIONAL FOUR- YEAR COLLEGES REPRESENT OVER 85% OF THE TOTAL $1.1 TRILLION INVESTED IN POSTSECONDARY WORKFORCE EDUCATION & TRAINING $60 billion $347 billion $47 billion $177 billion $18 billion $413 billion Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce analysis of 2013 data from the Department of Education, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Government Accountability Office. 8

9 TRADITIONAL HIGHER EDUCATION REAL ENTRY-LEVEL WAGES OF MALE AND FEMALE COLLEGE GRADUATES, ENTRY-LEVEL HOURLY WAGES FELL BY OVER 5 PERCENT FOR COLLEGE GRADUATES FROM 2000 TO 2013 Real hourly wage (2013 dollars) $25.00 $23.00 $21.00 $19.00 $17.00 $ Men Women Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce analysis of 2013 data from the Department of Education, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Government Accountability Office. 9

10 DECLINING EMPLOYER INVESTMENT IN WORKFORCE TRAINING 25 PERCENT OF U.S. WORKERS RECEIVING JOB- RELATED TRAINING Employer-Paid Training On-the-Job Training Note: Fraction of workers ages receiving training of any duration last year. Source: Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation (Employment and Training Topical Module); CEA calculation 10

11 TRAINING BY EDUCATION LEVEL EMPLOYERS SPEND 58 PERCENT OF THEIR FORMAL TRAINING DOLLARS ON COLLEGE- EDUCATED WORKERS SHARE OF FORMAL TRAINING SPENDING BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF TRAINEE, % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 58% Bachelor's degree or higher 25% Some college 17% High school diploma or less Source: Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce estimates based on analysis of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Survey of Employer-Provided Training (1995) and U.S. Census Bureau s Current Population Survey (2013). 11

12 LOW PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN WORKFORCE TRAINING Training expenditure as % of GDP 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON U.S. WORKER TRAINING AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP 0% BETWEEN 1985 AND 2016, SPENDING ON WORKFORCE TRAINING PROGRAMS FELL AS A PERCENT OF GDP FROM 0.14% TO 0.03% IN THE UNITED STATES Source: Future of Work Initiative analysis of OECD data, Public expenditure and participant stocks on LMP, August

13 LOW PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN WORKFORCE TRAINING Expenditure as percent of GDP 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 60% PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON WORKER TRAINING AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP, % 37% 27% 20% 17% 16% 15% 12% 10% 7% 7% 4% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% Source: Future of Work Initiative analysis of OECD data. 13

14 WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE? WE NEED A 21 ST CENTURY TRAINING SYSTEM THAT: Focuses on teaching in-demand skills Encourages lifelong learning Provides an alternative to college Incorporates but is not dependent on employers 14

15 TWO APPROACHES TO WORKER TRAINING ENCOURAGE BUSINESSES TO INVEST Worker Training Tax Credit: Establish a tax credit that could be used by small and large businesses to invest in training for their low- and middle-income workers Corporate Accounting: Reform corporate accounting practices to treat training as an investment rather than expense. Worker Representation: Corporate boards should worker representatives that are elected by the employees of the corporation. HELP WORKERS GET TRAINING OUTSIDE OF EMPLOYERS Lifelong Learning & Training Accounts: Establish accounts that would be funded by workers, employers, and government, and could be used by workers to pay for education and training opportunities JOBS Act: Expand Pell Grant eligibility to cover high-quality and rigorous shortterm job training programs Income Share Agreements (ISAs): Student receives education funding in exchange for an agreed upon percentage of post-graduation income over a defined number of years 15

16 16