The Labour Market and Economic Growth / Standard of Living. Mark Wooden

Transcription

1 The Labour Market and Economic Growth / Standard of Living Mark Wooden

2 A Simple Identity GDP GDP H * POP H POP GDP = Real Gross Domestic Product Pop = Total population H = Aggregate hours of work

3 Trends, Annualised Growth Rates % GDP/POP GDP/H H/POP

4 Hours per Head (and components) Labour force participation rate (L / 15+P) Employment rate (E / L) Hours per employed person (H / E) Hours per person aged 15+ (H / 15+P) Working-age pop as fraction of total pop (15+P / POP) Hours per person (H / POP) Notes: E = Employed persons; L = Labour force; H = Aggregate hours worked; 15+P = Civilian population aged 15 years or older; POP = Estimated resident population.

5 Hours per Head (and components) (average annual % change) Labour force participation rate (L / 15+P) +.28 Employment rate (E / L) +.42 Hours per employed person (H / E) -.33 Hours per person aged 15+ (H / 15+P) +.38 Working-age pop as fraction of total pop (15+P / POP) +.21 Hours per person (H / POP) +.59 Notes: E = Employed persons; L = Labour force; H = Aggregate hours worked; 15+P = Civilian population aged 15 years or older; POP = Estimated resident population.

6 Hours per Head (and components) (average annual % change) (average annual % change) Labour force participation rate (L / 15+P) Employment rate (E / L) Hours per employed person (H / E) Hours per person aged 15+ (H / 15+P) Working-age pop as fraction of total pop (15+P / POP) Hours per person (H / POP) Notes: E = Employed persons; L = Labour force; H = Aggregate hours worked; 15+P = Civilian population aged 15 years or older; POP = Estimated resident population.

7 Hours per Head (and components) (average annual % change) (average annual % change) Latest year (y.e. Sep 15) Labour force participation rate (L / 15+P) Employment rate (E / L) Hours per employed person (H / E) Hours per person aged 15+ (H / 15+P) Working-age pop as fraction of total pop (15+P / POP) Hours per person (H / POP) Notes: E = Employed persons; L = Labour force; H = Aggregate hours worked; 15+P = Civilian population aged 15 years or older; POP = Estimated resident population.

8 Labour Force Participation 80 Labour Force Participation Rates (seas adj), % Males Females Persons Jan-1994 Oct-1994 Jul-1995 Apr-1996 Jan-1997 Oct-1997 Jul-1998 Apr-1999 Jan-2000 Oct-2000 Jul-2001 Apr-2002 Jan-2003 Oct-2003 Jul-2004 Apr-2005 Jan-2006 Oct-2006 Jul-2007 Apr-2008 Jan-2009 Oct-2009 Jul-2010 Apr-2011 Jan-2012 Oct-2012 Jul-2013 Apr-2014 Jan-2015 Source: ABS, Labour Force, Australia, cat. no

9 Labour Force Participation by Age 105 LFPRs by Age and Sex % Men Women Men Women Men Women August Source: ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed - Electronic Delivery, Sept 2015, cat. no

10 Working For Longer 20 LFPRs, Persons aged % Men Women August Source: ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed - Electronic Delivery, Sept 2015, cat. no

11 Average Weekly Hours of Work Men Usual weekly hours of work (% distribution) Women Note: Rows sum to 100. Source: ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed Electronic Delivery (cat. no ; Time series spreadsheets; Table 10: Employed persons and usual hours worked by sex).

12 Average Weekly Hours of Work Men Usual weekly hours of work (% distribution) Women Note: Rows sum to 100. Source: ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed Electronic Delivery (cat. no ; Time series spreadsheets; Table 10: Employed persons and usual hours worked by sex).

13 Average Weekly Hours of Work Men Usual weekly hours of work (% distribution) Women Note: Rows sum to 100. Source: ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed Electronic Delivery (cat. no ; Time series spreadsheets; Table 10: Employed persons and usual hours worked by sex).

14 Productivity is almost everything 3 Components of growth in real GDP per head 2 1 Past 40 years Next 40 years 0-1 Share of population 15+ Participation Employment Average hours worked Labour productivity Source: 2015 Intergenerational Report, Australia in 2055, Chart 1.21.

15 A More Skilled Workforce Educational attainment of the labour force (%), (May) a Degree or higher Degree or higher Diploma Diploma Skilled vocational qual Certificate III/IV Basic vocational qual Certificate I/II/nfd Any non-school qual Any non-school qual. b Notes: a The relevant population is persons aged 15-64, except in 2014, when it is persons aged b Includes persons whose qualification level could not be determined. Source: ABS, Education and Work (cat. no ).

16 Education Mismatch Extent of mismatch between minimum education qualifications and highest qualification obtained (% of employed persons), 2012 All employed Employed, aged 25+ Overqualified Well matched Underqualified Employees, aged 25+ Note: Based on comparison between responses to question: what do you think is the minimum level of education necessary to satisfactorily carry out your (main) job? and highest qualification held. Source: Unit-record data from HILDA Survey, wave 12.

17 Wage Inequality Earnings dispersion ratios: Full-time non-managerial adult employees D9/D D5/D D9/D Notes: (1) D9 = 9 th earnings decile; 5 = 5th earnings decile (median); D1 = 1 st earnings decile. (2) In 2014 an adult is any employee paid the adult rate. In other years it is any person aged 21 year or older who is paid the adult rate. Source: ABS, Employees Earnings and Hours (cat. no ).

18 Relative Earnings by Education 2 Relative median weekly earnings by education, 2002 and Higher degree Degree Diploma Cert III/IV Year 12 Year 11 or lower Note: Population = Full-time adult employees Source: Unit record data from HILDA Survey.

19 Wage Inequality by Education 4 Earnings dispersion (D9/D1) by education, 2002 and Higher degree Degree Diploma Cert III/IV Year 12 Year 11 or lower Note: Population = Full-time adult employees. Source: Unit record data from HILDA Survey.

20 Challenges Demographics But still scope for increases in LFPRs Education Budget constraints Skills deepening vs credentialism Cognitive / technical skills vs soft skills Downward wage pressures vs downward wage rigidity

21 The Labour Market and Economic Growth / Standard of Living Mark Wooden