My Technical View of the World

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "My Technical View of the World"

Susan Bailey
6 years ago
Views:

Andy Dodd - MSTA - +44 20 7031 4651 2 nd October 2014 Twitter @doddsycharts My Technical View of the World S&P Future : Daily Log Chart (Trading View) Position Supports Resistances Conviction Long

I have been holding off from a short here despite the bearish signals, including a double top reversal pattern, due to the proximity of the medium-term uptrend and support at 1945.25.

In yesterdays note I suggested small size as a failure of that trend and support would suggest an extended pullback to the longer-term uptrend on the weekly chart which sits around the 1850 level.

1 Andy Dodd - MSTA nd October 2014 My Technical View of the World S&P Future : Daily Log Chart (Trading View) Position Supports Resistances Conviction Long Low The future remains in a short-term downtrend channel (120 min chart) and sold off from the top of that channel in yesterdays session. I have been holding off from a short here despite the bearish signals, including a double top reversal pattern, due to the proximity of the medium-term uptrend and support at Instead I remained flat and suggested a tentative long at that support which we reached yesterday. In yesterdays note I suggested small size as a failure of that trend and support would suggest an extended pullback to the longer-term uptrend on the weekly chart which sits around the 1850 level. The short-term (120 min) charts are showing some bullish signals here, despite the close below the support, with a spinning top candle at the lows and I am happy to remain long with the longer-term trend for now. 130 Wood Street 4th Floor London EC2V 6DL +44 (0) Disclaimer regarding the content of this report appears on last page. 1

Weekly Log Chart (Long-Term View) The medium-term uptrend remains intact just below the 1954.75 support and one would therefore have to be long with that trend.

2 Weekly Log Chart (Long-Term View) The medium-term uptrend remains intact just below the support and one would therefore have to be long with that trend. Bearish signals abound however with RSI divergence and a lack of upward momentum and a failure of that trend would suggest an extended move lower towards the longer-term uptrend and support around Wood Street 4th Floor London EC2V 6DL +44 (0)

EU50 Future (VG1) : Daily Log Chart (Trading View) Position Supports Resistances Conviction Short 3146 3138 3127 3109 3178 3206 3214/16 3253 Medium 3291 3319/27 *3378* The future remains in a

3 EU50 Future (VG1) : Daily Log Chart (Trading View) Position Supports Resistances Conviction Short / Medium /27 *3378* The future remains in a short-term downtrend channel having sold off from the 3291 resistance a couple of weeks ago. In yesterdays early note I suggested trading the 3178 to 3216 range from the short-side. The future made an intraday high just above the resistance before selling off back to the support and, in my afternoon update, I advised taking profit on the additional short from 3216 at 3178 but remaining short overall. The eventual close was just below 3178 making it the first resistance level this morning. I still see no reason to be long here based on the daily chart as there are no bullish signals from either candle patterns or the oscillators but I would expect the 3146 level to provide some support as it also coincides with the 200 day moving average. With the chart wrecker Draghi talking today expect some volatility this afternoon and the big levels to watch on a move are the supports at 3107 and resistances at I will update should these be tested and may be closing the position at short notice! 130 Wood Street 4th Floor London EC2V 6DL +44 (0)

Weekly Log Chart (Long-Term View) The longer-term uptrend remains largely intact but the future has yet to break above the 3327 swing high with a bearish Dark Cloud Cover pattern a couple of weeks

4 Weekly Log Chart (Long-Term View) The longer-term uptrend remains largely intact but the future has yet to break above the 3327 swing high with a bearish Dark Cloud Cover pattern a couple of weeks ago signalling the start of the recent drift lower. The 3178 support that I mentioned in the daily chart above is also a level on this chart which was the reason I suggested taking some profits on a short around there and has held on a closing basis so far. Upward momentum is still lacking here and a failure of that uptrend would suggest an extended pullback towards 3107 initially. 130 Wood Street 4th Floor London EC2V 6DL +44 (0)

DAX Future (GX1) Daily Log Chart Position Supports Resistances Conviction Short 9257 9066 *8990* 9429.5 9504. 9572 9642.5 High 9756.5 9802.5 I remain short here on a medium-term view from the 9802.

5 DAX Future (GX1) Daily Log Chart Position Supports Resistances Conviction Short *8990* High I remain short here on a medium-term view from the resistance having added at the overnight gap last Monday. Yesterday saw a small rally back towards the top end of the short-term downtrend channel but that proved shortlived as the future sold off once more to close below 9368 which has been a support on the 120 min chart. The daily chart, on which this report is based, shows no bullish reversal signals and I therefore see no reason to be closing my short as yet. I will however be adding a stop today on the balance on a close above as this would leave a bullish piercing pattern on that chart. Longer-term the sideways channel between and remains intact on the weekly chart with the Death Cross on the daily adding to the bearish tone. I will be looking to cover all of my short should the lower end of that channel be tested. 130 Wood Street 4th Floor London EC2V 6DL +44 (0)

GX1 Weekly Log Chart The top end of the channel was tested over the last few weeks but the resistance held each time on a closing basis and upside from here will be limited whilst the channel remains

6 GX1 Weekly Log Chart The top end of the channel was tested over the last few weeks but the resistance held each time on a closing basis and upside from here will be limited whilst the channel remains intact. Longer-term a failure of the support would confirm a large top pattern suggesting an extended move lower to 8561 initially but the medium-term target will be more like Wood Street 4th Floor London EC2V 6DL +44 (0)

FTSE Future (Z 1 Index) Daily Chart (Trading View) Position Supports Resistances Conviction Short 6492 6445.5 6396 6346.5 6536 6603 6653.5 6669.5 6693 6760.7 6815.5 6861.

7 FTSE Future (Z 1 Index) Daily Chart (Trading View) Position Supports Resistances Conviction Short High I remain short from , which is the top end of a sideways channel in which the future has been trading for over a year, has proved a nice trade and I added to the short near the early highs on the pop higher on the 19 th. I suggested making a print on the short last week at the level as this was also a support on the weekly chart and the move lower has now taken the future to an interesting support at 6492 which is the swing low from August 8 th. Whilst the daily chart shows no bullish patterns as yet, the 120 min posted a small Morning Star reversal pattern towards the end of yesterdays session suggesting a rally from current levels. I am therefore adding a closing stop on the balance of my short on a move above 6536 today. Longer-term key support remains at which is the lower end of the sideways channel and I will be looking to reverse to a long should that be tested. 130 Wood Street 4th Floor London EC2V 6DL +44 (0)

Weekly Log Chart (Long-Term View) The future remains in a sideways channel between support at 6346.5 and resistance at 6861.5 and has so far failed to manage a weekly close above that channel.

8 Weekly Log Chart (Long-Term View) The future remains in a sideways channel between support at and resistance at and has so far failed to manage a weekly close above that channel. Last weeks move took the future through the support at (now resistance) and I still see no reason for a long here whilst that channel remains intact. 130 Wood Street 4th Floor London EC2V 6DL +44 (0)

Russell 2000 Comment The sell-off in U.S. Equities has taken the index through its long-term uptrend for the first time since 2008 thus invalidating that trend.

9 Russell 2000 Comment The sell-off in U.S. Equities has taken the index through its long-term uptrend for the first time since 2008 thus invalidating that trend. Bearish signals abound with a Death Cross similar to that of the DAX a couple of weeks ago. This occurs when the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200 day but please note that this is a long-term signal but is useless as a short-term trading tool (I ve back-tested it). Yesterdays move took the index to within touching distance of its KEY support at but I expect this to hold if tested short-term and would not be at all surprised to see a rally back towards 1132 and above. The index has been in a sideways channel between and 1213 since the middle of February and I would suggest trading that channel whilst it remains intact. Daily Log Chart 130 Wood Street 4th Floor London EC2V 6DL +44 (0)

10 Russell 2000 Weekly Log Chart Note the sideways channel remaining intact so far and the similarity with the weekly DAX chart above. In fact they are almost identical with an uptrend failure leading to such a sideways channel. Note that a confirmed break of the 1080 level would confirm a bearish top pattern which has a measured target some 12% below current levels at 953. This again is similar to the DAX chart above but, for the time being, the supports and channels remain intact on both and one must respect that. 130 Wood Street 4th Floor London EC2V 6DL +44 (0)

FX One-Liners : Dollar Index The long following the break above 84.753 worked well but there are now some short-term reversal signals creeping in on the 120 min, Daily and Weekly charts.

11 FX One-Liners : Dollar Index The long following the break above worked well but there are now some short-term reversal signals creeping in on the 120 min, Daily and Weekly charts. The weekly will post a Shooting Star candle (or similar) should we close at these levels tomorrow and the 120 min has bearish signals from RSI & MACD. The daily chart also posted a Doji candle yesterday showing the indecision around current levels and, if we close towards the lows today, the price action will leave a bearish candle pattern similar to an Evening Star. I would suggest taking profits on longs short-term as a result of these signals. 130 Wood Street 4th Floor London EC2V 6DL +44 (0)

AUDUSD I closed my short from 0.9388 a little early at the 0.8848 level expecting it to offer more support than what actually turned out to be a chocolate teapot effort.

12 AUDUSD I closed my short from a little early at the level expecting it to offer more support than what actually turned out to be a chocolate teapot effort. In yesterdays note I pointed out the key support at 0.866, which I expected to hold if tested, and the pair made a session low just three ticks above there before rallying to leave a bullish Hammer candle. Further bullish signals are starting to creep in from the short-term charts but are not convincing enough for me to recommend a long with any conviction. I will therefore remain flat here for the time being and watch the price action around that support before committing to a new trade as, on failure of that support, I would expect downward momentum to increase and a move to.8067 would be likely in the medium-term. 130 Wood Street 4th Floor London EC2V 6DL +44 (0)

GBPUSD As with AUD I closed my short from 1.6747 too early a couple of weeks ago around the 1.63 level on bullish signals from both the daily and weekly charts.

13 GBPUSD As with AUD I closed my short from too early a couple of weeks ago around the 1.63 level on bullish signals from both the daily and weekly charts. These proved short-lived as the downtrend held and the pair has now sold off from that trend back to the support at With the downtrend still very much intact there is no reason to be long here but this may not be a good short-entry point with the support at current levels. I would however re-open the short should that support fail with a target at Wood Street 4th Floor London EC2V 6DL +44 (0)

USDJPY I remain bearish JPY in the long-term and still have an eventual target at 123.25. I said in recent notes to expect some short-term resistance at 110.

14 USDJPY I remain bearish JPY in the long-term and still have an eventual target at I said in recent notes to expect some short-term resistance at but the pair didn t quite reach that level before momentum slowed and a number of bearish signals started to appear in all time frames. The Weekly chart posted a Hanging Man candle last week and the daily has MACD crossing down and RSI coming down out of overbought. I would therefore suggest taking short-term profits here and looking to buy pullbacks to the level, the break above which was the catalyst for the recent sharp move higher. USDJPY Daily Log Chart 130 Wood Street 4th Floor London EC2V 6DL +44 (0)

EURUSD My short on the failure of the key support (now resistance) at 1.3487 a number of weeks ago worked well but, as with the Aussie, I closed slightly too early at 1.

15 EURUSD My short on the failure of the key support (now resistance) at a number of weeks ago worked well but, as with the Aussie, I closed slightly too early at which proved to be another Chocolate Teapot support. Thankfully I advised reo-opening the position on a failure of and the pair has now sold off further to another key support area between and I am happy to remains short here and would expect downside momentum to accelerate on a clean break of the former and I will be looking for a move to in the mediumterm should that occur. The very short-term (120 min charts) are suggesting a relief rally from these levels however and I am therefore adding a stop on a close today above as this would leave a bullish candle pattern on the daily chart. 130 Wood Street 4th Floor London EC2V 6DL +44 (0)

16 GOLD Gold remains in a medium-term downtrend which sits just below the 1273 resistance and I have shied away from a long as a result. There are some bullish signals appearing here from MACD and RSI but upside will be limited in the short-term whilst that trend remains intact. Daily Log Chart 130 Wood Street 4th Floor London EC2V 6DL +44 (0)

17 Engulfing Patterns from The Last Session These occur when the days opening and closing range is outside that of the previous day and can be a warning of an impending change in trend. Only valid if there is an existing trend in the opposite direction. Bullish Engulfing Bearish Enfulfing ADIDAS AG AALBERTS INDS EVONIK INDUSTRIE SKY DEUTSCHLAND ADP ABENGOA SA-B SH HAMMERSON PLC SMURFIT KAPPA GR ASHMORE GROUP PL ABERDEEN ASSET HANNOVER RUECK S SPIRAX-SARCO ENG AXEL SPRINGER SE ARYZTA AG HEXPOL AB SSE PLC BANCA POP SONDRI BASF SE HOME RETAIL GROU SUBSEA 7 SA CHR HANSEN HOLDI BAYER MOTOREN WK HUNTING PLC SWATCH GROUP-BR ERSTE GROUP BANK BPOST SA JAZZTEL PLC THYSSENKRUPP AG ING GROEP NV CATLIN GROUP LTD K+S AG-REG UNIBAIL-RODAMCO KBC GROEP CEZ AS L'OREAL UNITED INTERN-RE LAGARDERE SCA COCA-COLA HBC AG MARKS & SPENCER VOESTALPINE AG NOVOZYMES-B SHS COLRUYT SA MUENCHENER RUE-R YARA INTL ASA NUTRECO NV DANONE RUBIS PARTNERS GROUP J DELHAIZE GROUP SABMILLER PLC UCB SA DEUTSCHE BOERSE SAINSBURY PLC ZURICH INSURANCE DIAGEO PLC SGS SA-REG Note that these are general comments about markets and the time frames may not always match your investment criteria. As always position sizing is more important than the ideas and levels. The sectors and stocks mentioned are generally those that my active clients care about but I am happy to add more on request. I always encourage clients to ask for chart views and asset allocation ideas that have been written specifically for them and their individual time frames and risk tolerances. If you would like to play any of these ideas through derivatives our options desk will be happy to suggest strategies. 130 Wood Street 4th Floor London EC2V 6DL +44 (0)

18 Important US Regulatory Disclosures This report is for informational purposes only, and the information herein is obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness, and that of the opinions based thereon, are not guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. Further, this report is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or related instruments. Opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice, LP does not make markets in any of equities mentioned., LP and / or its officers or partners, research analyst nor the associate has ownership in any of the equities mentioned., LP nor its affiliates has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for any of the companies mentioned., LP nor its affiliates has not receive, or intends to seek, compensation from the company for investment banking, underwriting or financial advisory services. Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primarily responsible for the research contained in this research report and whose name is listed first on this report: attests that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect that research analyst's personal views about any and all of the securities and issuers that are the subject of this research report; and attests that no part of that research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst in this research report. All graphs have been taken from authorised data providers (such as Bloomberg) and although UK LLP takes all reasonable care to ensure that the information is accurate and complete, no warranty or representation or undertaking is given that this data is free from inaccuracies or omission. Unless otherwise stated within the attachment, the information in this document is not from LCM Research but it may refer to a research analyst/research report. Unless indicated, these views are the author s and may differ from those of the research department of UK LLP or its affiliates. Other Important Disclosures To our readers in United Kingdom: This financial promotion has been approved by UK LLP (Firm Reference # ) which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).This document has been classified by UK LLP as non independent research under the FCA Rules and so is considered to be a marketing communication. This document has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This is directed exclusively at market professional and institutional clients and is not for distribution to retail clients, as defined by the rules of the FCAwho should not rely on this material. To our readers in Hong Kong: This document is published or re-distributed by (Hong Kong) Limited ( LCMHK ) (CE number: AOE100) which is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commissions in Hong Kong. This document is intended for distribution to professional, accredited and institutional investor customers. No part of this document may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means, or redistributed without the prior written consent of LCMHK. LCMHK and the research analyst will not be held responsible if this investment research or recommendation is published or otherwise reproduced in whole or in part by the mass media without the relevant disclosures. The information, tools and material presented in this document are provided to you for information purposes only and shall not be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. LCMHK has not taken any steps to ensure that the securities referred to in 130 Wood Street 4th Floor London EC2V 6DL +44 (0)

19 this document are suitable for any particular investor. LCMHK accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or further communication given in relation to this document. Although information and opinions presented in this document have been obtained or derived from sources believed by LCMHK to be reliable, neither the author or LCMHK or its respective directors, officers, employees or agents has independently verified the information contained in this document. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of such information and opinions. This document is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment Regulatory disclosure: LCMHK confirms that it (i) does not own 1% or more financial interests in any of the listed corporation reviewed; (ii) is not involved in any market-making activities for any of the listed corporations reviewed; and (iii) does not have any individual employed by or associated with LCMHK serving as an officer of any of the listed corporations reviewed. For additional disclosures regarding this report send a written request to compliance at:, LP 853 Broadway, Floor 5, New York, NY 1003 UK LLP 130 Wood Street, 4 th Floor, London EC2V 6DL UK LLP Rue Cambon, 4 th Floor, Paris (Hong Kong) Limited 8 Queens Road Central, 9 th Floor, Hong Kong 130 Wood Street 4th Floor London EC2V 6DL +44 (0)

EU50 Future (VG1) Futures: Short Term View / Levels. Andy Dodd - MSTA adodd 25th April 2018.

EU50 Future (VG1) Futures: Short Term View / Levels. Andy Dodd - MSTA adodd 25th April 2018. Andy Dodd - MSTA +44 20 7031 4651 Twitter @louiscaptech adodd 2018 EU50 Future (VG1) Daily Chart Position Supports Resistances Position Size Short 3391 3354 3336 3319 3282 3418 3441 3481 3502 100% 3286