Jake Bernstein Trading Webinar

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1 Jake Bernstein Trading Webinar Mid Year FORECAST Expectations being Confirmed What s Next? 10 and 11 June by Jake Bernstein jake@trade-futures.com *

2 Disclaimer Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in all trading and investing. There is no guarantee that recommendations herein will result in profits. Consider your own risk tolerance in all trading and investing decisions. (c) 2017 Jake Bernstein 2

4 Today Review and update forecasts from Nov 2016 Examine status of triggers Update targets Show new setups if any Provide guidance in view of my expectations within the geopolitical backdrop Answer your questions as best I can (c) 2017 Jake Bernstein 4

6 I do NOT have anything perfect for you today or ever but I DO HAVE FOR YOU Clarity of process Rule based application Risk evaluation Profit maximizing and Objectivity based on valid, quantifiable historical patterns But WHY is that bad news to some people? (c) 2017 Jake Bernstein 6

7 Perspective Let s learn by looking at examples I will SHOW every market chart so you can see WHAT and WHY I said what I said 6 months ago and HOW it turned out and WHAT S NEXT Perhaps you will believe me this time (c) 2017 Jake Bernstein 7

Conclusion: big up move coming-buy monthly

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19 A forecast without a trigger means less than nothing a forecast without a trigger is dangerous Today I will give you forecasts and triggers that should be watched for from now through 2018 and beyond WHY? CONFLUENCE is pervasive: commodities + interest rates today we will look at 5 metrics for forecasts and timing Timing is more important than price I WILL project some price targets but TREND and timing will be emphasize KEYS: interest rates, energy prices, commercial activity (c) 2017 Jake Bernstein 19

20 The 5 long term factors 1) Cycles: long term, intermediate term 2) Pattern(s): price, indicators, spikes, divergence 3) Commercial activity 4) Timing 5) Small speculator sentiment and Combinations of above Low interest rates + low energy prices + low commodity prices + growing employment + commercial buying + hedge fund buying + Chinese buying = huge bull markets and inflationary pressure (c) 2017 Jake Bernstein 20

21 Today s topics Long-term cycles forecast for every major futures market Intermediate-term cycles forecast for every major futures market Long-term cycles forecast for US stocks Intermediate-term cycles forecast for US stocks Price and time projections for all major markets Cocoa, soybean meal, % rate futures, metals: the next big upside mover s- why commercials are buying Heavy insider buying in yen/cattle/lumber was right: what now? Interest rates: the great gift comes to an end Real estate forecast; more upside to come Energy stocks were recommended last November - what now? How to prepare for the inevitable and unavoidable inflation More (c) 2017 Jake Bernstein 21

22 Will the grains finally explode? Is that starting now? Clear and powerful signals now being generated by the COT Crude oil or heating oil? The future of agricultural commodities The social media bubble: could these stocks could collapse in 2017* Terrorism and the markets: what you need to know and do now Specific support and resistance levels in all major markets My inflation protection portfolio: an absolute must! My forecast for US farmland was totally right. What s next? HUGE profits coming in the yield curve spread? How to get on board Record volatility awaits: how to harness and profit from it in 2017 Electronic trading security threats: how to protect yourself (c) 2017 Jake Bernstein 22

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31 Webinar: Summary and Goals I see inflationary patterns developing into late 2017 and beyond There is confluence for higher prices just as there was confluence for cycle lows at the last bottoms that were correctly predicted I want go on record with my forecasts so that you may prepare for some of the biggest and most volatile moves in market history I want to show you the major cycles and patterns I follow and why they are now suggesting potentially serious inflation To show you why I think that the rest of 2017 and beyond may witness more explosive moves to the upside in many commodities and stocks To reject the popular idea that recession or depression are coming To tell you what you best investments and trades may be best if my expectations is correct Help you prepare for the biggest up and down moves ever seen Help you get on board for more GENERATIONAL opportunities Another example of my model and process (c) 2017 Jake Bernstein 31

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64 CRB Cycle: the driver yr 42 mo avg business cycle Kitchin CRB tells us about commodity trends Weighted to energy Major factor: professional, commercial accumulation of large long positions in various commodities: what it means Next chart (c) 2017 Jake Bernstein 64

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84 Homebuilders / Reits / Farmland Last long term recommendation was to buy REITS and homebuilders REITS surged I recommended VNQ long term buy. Why VNQ? Homebuilders still prime to buy for long term on buy TRIGGERS Consider health care REITS and commercial property reits Examples follow Farmland: my previous forecast and result Whats next? WHY? Large buyers. Corp and hedge funds, fewer participants, rising demand (c) 2017 Jake Bernstein 84

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99 Economic factors supporting the cycles World is being flooded with fiat money: inflationary Interest rates effectively at zero or very low until recently Governments debased currency to cure problem it will work but the price will be inflation and WE the people will pay for it with higher costs across the board The inflationary stage is set and it has started China continues to accumulate and hoard raw commodities which will further cause price surges More money chasing fewer goods: definition of inflation Commercials and large traders continue to accumulate massive long positions in some markets Commercials: buy cheap things with low % on debt (c) 2017 Jake Bernstein 99

100 Factors and cycles (continued) Cycles point higher in most commodities and stocks Situation is similar to the 1970 s patterns Electronic trading has increased volatility and price swings BUT AI has decreased volatility: WHY? Mistrust of governments and lack of confidence in paper currency has created demand and buying for things that are REAL and TANGIBLE The confluence is a near perfect storm for massive rallies and volatility into 2017 and beyond What to do? Await timing triggers to buy commodities either in futures or as ETF s. Specifics later (c) 2017 Jake Bernstein 100

101 Long Term Cycle Lengths Almost every market has a 3-4 year cycle also known as the business cycle Corn 5.7 years and 10 years Soybeans 4-5 years and 10 years BrPound 8.1 years Cattle and hogs years and 3-4 years Yen 7 years Stock market 10 years and 4-5 years Nat Gas 3-4 years Crude oil 3-4 years and 8-9 years (c) 2017 Jake Bernstein 101

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Jake Bernstein Trading Webinar

Jake Bernstein Trading Webinar http://www.jakebernstein.com 2012 Mid-Year Forecast Inflation or Deflation: STATUS The New Commodity Explosion Prepare for and Profit from Record Volatility and Cycles in