Global Financial Recovery Portfolio:

Transcription

1 Jake Bernstein Global Financial Recovery Portfolio: Phase III Strategies for Profits and Asset Protection As the Predicted Recovery Continues SESSION 3 Updates Perspectives The Plans Procedures 30 May by Jake Bernstein

2 What we know about the global financial crisis is that we don't know very much Paul A. Samuelson

3 Our goal is clarity but The waters of news and fundamentals are murky and getting more cloudy by the second Let s ONLY deal with what we KNOW Accept the fact that even what we DO KNOW is a venture into probability bili not certainty We take risk and manage the upside and the downside WHAT DO WE KNOW?

4 Status Report Recovery on course Issues coming to a critical juncture Interest Rates: bottoming generational Stocks: direction on course consider the headwinds and remarkable performance Recession or Inflation: the die is cast COT: the outlook for commodity prices Energies: which way and implications Cycles: on course with 2013 looming as an ideal top

5 Today Review and update Preparation Status report I see BIG TREND CHANGES coming SOON How soon? By September or late lt October Otb Inflation I am more certain than ever European union FATE Emerging currency star!

6 What I ve been saying: update

7 Status of predicted recovery: on course The next crises: Europe, MidEast, Inflation Best strategies in stocks, futures and currencies Stock market outlook for balance of 2012 Interest rate expectations and strategies: NOB Real estate and home builders: another chance Emerging and developing trend changes FOCUS on intermediate and long term Energies and geopolitics in your investments The NEXT BIG SECTOR MOVES

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10 Watch Shanghai low developing 12/23/2011

11 What happened daily?

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13 Weekly $SSE

14 Where we are now weekly

15 US stocks intermediate term trend up 2/24

16 Where we are now

17 XHB signals and intermediate trend 2/24

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19 Gold Stocks Now!

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22 GOLD

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25 2 nd yr Decade Pattern January Effect: UPDATE Reviewing the pattern? Status / Targets Setup: Jan high / low Trigger: weekly close above / below Follow through: h range of Jan History Limitations: specific to Dow Jones Benefits and use DIA, Dow Futures*, IYJ, IYY CAN use ES and/or SPY

26 2/10 $DJI

27 $DJI Now

28 What s ahead for stocks?

29 Coming seasonal DJ trades

30 The COT in Euro FX

31 COT + Cycle Euro FX

32 Peso / US$

33 Now let s look at commodity price tend status Now let s look at commodity price tend status of cycles and timing for CRB

34 Commodity trend forecast CRB

35 Where prices are going next

36 CRB MD Daily

37 CRB March 2012

38 CRB Now

39 Major issues Continue Is the Euro crisis over or just abated? Spain and Portugal Greek elections US stocks on course for bullish trend confirmed Improved housing starts as predicted more coming housing stocks soar as predicted Other signs of economic lf life: employment, uptick in building permits, decrease in foreclosures, pick in closings Natural gas: low is in GOLD DIVERGES from other markets (chart) Market sentiment overall negative: good! Forecasts and status

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42 Where we are now Confluence many factors still coming together with many cycles bullish through 2013 Timing remains bullish in stocks seasonally through early May Sentiment tvery low again in stocks (chart) (h The developing MAJOR LOW in EuroFX (COT) Developing LOW in China stock index (shown earlier) Aussie real estate and bank WARNING (chart earlier) US real estate lows being confirmed US Interest rate status and forecast

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44 S&P Sentiment now

45 DAX DSI Weekly

46 DAX DSI Daily

47 DSI FTSE

48 CAC40 DSI

49 Conclusions Stocks US and Europe may be a few days from a significant low. They are set up for buy ti triggers % rates US and Europe DSI at extreme and set up for sells Gold has diverged from Euro Gold stocks setups and triggers COTs VERY bullish on Euro DSI Euro VERY LOW ALL against negative news backdrop

50 A Few Cycles and COTS Cocoa Coffee Sugar Nat Gas Currencies Grains

51 The Major Forces into Long term cycles and status Currency debasement fiatmoney Currency relationships Interestrate rate cycles and relationships Timing triggers Geo political instability as an exacerbating factor (Iran, Middle East) Intermediate term cycles COT status of Commercials MAJOR factor Confluence: COT+CYCLES+FIAT MONEY

52 Status ED

53 Approx 30 mo cycle Tnote futures: Dec 2010

54 Tnotes: cycles forecast

55 Approx 4 yr cycle TBonds

56 ZB/ZN Long Term

57 ZB/ZN daily!

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59 What it means If long term rates rise relative to short term rates it will suggest an end of easy money Rising long term rates will boost borrowing which will signal inflation This may not happen until 2013 or late 2012 and will infect all markets Let s correlate this with CRB cycle status

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62 The Real Estate Cycle USA 2010 low: Next top pprojection 2020

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65 Homebuilders / Reits Last long term recommendation was to buy RETIS and homebuilders REITS surged I recommended VNQ and JRS 3yrs ago Homebuilders still prime to buy for long term Consider health care REITS and commercial property reits Examples follow

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67 JRS 8.6% yield

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69 COCOA

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74 Current forecasts MAJOR support has hit again in all metals prime buying opportunities developed as predicted NO CHANGE in long term bullish forecast Platinum vs gold or silver Inflation forecast on course printing presses rolling Fiat money is the cure and the curse MANY markets new highs coming: on course 2012 Forecast (refer to CRB cycle chart)

75 Economic factors supporting the cycles World is being flooded with fiat money: inflationary Interest rates effectively at zero or very low and likely to continue so Europe FORCED to low rates to save Euro and economies Governments debased currency to cure problem it will work but the price will be inflation: we will pay for it with higher costs across the board The inflationary stage is set and it has started China continues to accumulate and hoard raw commodities More money chasing fewer goods: dfiiti definition of inflation Commercials and large traders still accumulating long positions in some markets Commercials: buy cheap things with low % on debt Cycles point higher in most commodities and stocks Situation is similar to the 1970 s patterns Electronic trading has increased volatility and price swings Mistrust of governments and lack of confidence in paper pp currency has created demand and buying for things that are REAL and TANGIBLE The confluence is a near perfect storm for massive rallies and volatility into 2012 and beyond

76 Stock sectors: why Steel and coal (fire sale) Infrastructure t Foods and commodities Banks (fire sale) JPM, MS, AXP Real estate (discussed) Builders (discussed) Biotech Technology

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78 Soybeans 341% move from current levels give a target of $34 soybeans crazy?

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81 Gold long term trend

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92 Coffee 685% rally is likely

93 Coffee now

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96 Cocoa get ready!

97 NIB

98 Gold

99 Gold 745% rally?

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110 Precious metals recommendations HL PAL GDXJ NG SLW SIL GOLD FCX SCCO JJC (ETF) TIE MOLY USEC *

111 COT Commercials Nat Gas + Cycles

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118 Gas and energy related stocks GAS COG EOG OXY HAL SLB TSO KOG LNG SD TPLM

119 Cattle last Dec and forecast

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122 Meats COW HRL SAFM TSN

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125 Dollar top: implications?

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135 EWW watch for MD trigger buy

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138 Status Report US dollar surges as predicted many months ago what does it mean and why? Last decline was seenas a correction. STATUS? There were literally hundreds of outstanding buys as well as HIGH dividend plays and there still are This is an inflection point where panic meets opportunity and a transition occurs as strong hands take investments from weak hands This transition continues Is DEFLATION imminent or is INFLATION certain? I am more certain of inflation than ever before why and what to do about it

139 Comment on Current Pressing Issues US dollar strength: what s next? Correction is over resistance hit seasonal down European Union status and opportunity European bank stability: opportunities + timing (charts) Collapse in energy prices was seen as a buy Commodity price decline where is support? Runaway bull market in gold it is over? No Interest rate plunge does it mean depression? Stock market HUGE YEAR END RALLY watch the January effect. My forecast was for all time stock highs in Status and WHY

140 DJ Spike levels

141 Udpating DJ Resistance

142 CONFLUENCE CONTINUES Secular low in real estate Secular low in interest rates Cycles in bullish or bottoming mode Crisis in Europe and USA ending It all adds up to generational opportunities

143 Sectors I Like Now Home builders on declines to daily/weekly support: PHM MTH KBH XHB RYL BZH Gas and/or oil: XOM ANAD COG OXY LNG COG SD KOG PDO Biotech (next slide) Commodity and related : NIB ADM ANDE BG AGRO MTW Dividend stocks: 4% or higher how to find them VZ A BMY PFE NLY many even better ones Coal: JRCC PCX Metals and mining Banks on declines to weekly / daily support Interest rate related: TBT Meats: cattle and hogs caution why?

144 Interest Rates Europe

145 Interest rates Generational lows across theboard Real estate and % rate lows: double opportunity It s not an easy forecast to make and it s not a popular forecast but I bli believe it will be correct

146 What the interest rate cycles mean Low rates for the next 1 2 years Fdf Fed forcing money to yield ildnear zero to discourage saving and encourage spending an investing Where can you get yield these days? Growth: commodities This strongly gysuggests inflation and continued rallies / high prices in commodities and a rally in stocks

147 Mentoring appointment interview p// / / CHARTS: setup.com I can be reached at: or me if you have questions: jake@trade futures.com Best of trading, Jake Bernstein 2012 by Jake Bernstein futures.com