In the Wake of the Downgrade, New Opportunities

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Meredith Wells
5 years ago
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1 141 W. Jackson Boulevard Suite 4002 Chicago, IL / Part of the market s malaise since August 1st came as a result of bickering in Washington over whether to raise the US debt ceiling, but it also came from the European debt debacle, the S&P downgrade of the US credit rating and the cycle of poor economic data from around the globe. However, it is possible that the 17.5% plunge in the September S&P 500, the $23 decline in crude oil prices, the 37 basis point drop in 10-Year Note yields and the 16% drop in copper prices in just 7 trading sessions could have been an overreaction. True, many players are disgusted with gridlock in Washington over raising the US debt ceiling, a primary factor behind the downgrade of the coveted triple-a rating. Many have lost trust in Congress and in turn have voted by selling the market. This sell-off, which has occurred across most markets, reflects concerns over an economic slowdown, but certain commodities market might have already factored in sustained slowing and the lack of clarity about the US and Euro zone debt problems. In our opinion, commodities are and will continue to be less responsive to the downturn in the economy than other instruments. We also think that certain commodity markets will be able to turn back up with only minimal evidence of an economic recovery and certainly in the event that spending cuts are found by the Super Committee. Daily Cash CCI Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Source: CRB Visit our blog: thehightowerreport.com The information in this report may be considered dated upon its release and should not be considered interpersonal advice. This report is merely an opinion on the market and is a reflection of conditions as of its publication. Market conditions change! Traders should not consider entering positions without their own independent analysis of the market s current situation, nor without further consideration of any changes to the information contained herein that may have occurred since this report was written. The authors are not responsible for any verbal or written claims and opinions that might be provided in conjunction with this report. The trading suggestions contained herein have been provided merely as a general guide and only for the purpose of quantifying the authors opinions. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of The Hightower Report is strictly prohibited. The Hightower Report 1

2 Therefore, the markets are in need of a catalyst, a measure of support or surprise to help shift sentiment from the sky is falling view to one of hope. Factors that could turn the tide include: a) Super Committee progress on budget cuts, b) Signs that a US Tax Code overhaul is possible, c) Further support from US Fed (QE3), d) Signs that the US economy has retained positive momentum. No Sign of a Fundamental Bottom Yet Look to the Technicals for Timing In looking at a chart of the speculator positioning in a composite of a physical commodity markets, it is clear that a significant portion of the net long position in non financial commodities was liquidated in the April through July decline. Our estimate is that the close on August 10 th put the net spec and fund long of non financial commodities at 1.2 million contracts, which closely equates to the reading that was posted the week of July 5 th. The current positioning also appears to relate fairly well to the reading that was posted on July 27 th of Therefore, we see the commodity markets sitting at a fairly critical pivot point or value zone. To see even lower prices ahead might require a broader acceptance of a return to recession mentality in the US. Number of Contract 2,250k 2,000k 1,750k 1,500k 1,250k 1,000k 750k 500k 250k 0k -250k Combined Non Commercial & Non-Reportable Net Postion for Non-Financial Markets -500k Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders w/ Options With the Continuous Commodity Index having fallen to a fresh new low for the move as of August 10 th and reaching its lowest level since early January, we suggest that traders remain negative towards those markets that have classically bearish fundamentals, like sugar, cattle and soybeans. At the same time they should wait until the fundamentally bullish markets like copper, corn, crude oil, hogs and platinum reach down to solid chart support levels before establishing long positions in them. 2

3 Copper Early in 2011 the copper market seemed to be signaling a return to impressive global economic growth. However, into the May washout lows, with nearby copper prices sitting more than 73 cents a pound off the 2011 highs, the market seemed to be expecting negative growth ahead and a more than adequate supply of copper. Clearly the Japanese disaster forced a number of physical commodity markets to factor in the prospect of a global slowdown, but that threat was eventually discounted. When copper prices reached their highs in July, the market seemed to be expecting modest growth and solid demand again in the second half of And in the initial throes of the US debt ceiling crisis and through a couple of slack US non farm payroll reports, copper prices managed to hold up. But as the gridlock over the debt ceiling was extended to the breaking point, the copper market seemed to give way. As of this writing, copper prices had fallen through their May 2011 spike lows and were threatening to fall to their lowest levels in nine months. Furthermore, the COT reports as of August 2 nd showed the combined non-commercial and nonreportable position in copper to still be net long 26,207 contracts. Subsequent to that reading the market saw an additional decline of 57 cents per pound, and that might have effectively liquidated a large portion of the weak handed-bull contingent. With its long standing role as a leading indicator, copper could be one of the commodity markets that anticipate a turn away from the current, patently bearish macroeconomic condition. Furthermore, with copper market generally dependent on Asian demand and generally strong global economic activity, it is possible that nearby copper prices trading below $3.90 per pound could offer up significant long Number of Contracts Copper - COT - Futures and Options Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 Source: CFTC Non-Commercial and Nonreportable Combined Net Position Number Of Contracts Note: Last Data Point Hightower Estimate based on reported trading activity side opportunity, even if the best case scenario has the US simply skirting disaster and being forced into another prolonged, slow climb back toward economic growth status. With long term mortgage rates in the US recently managing a downside breakout and with the prospect of a move toward US tax reform, it is even possible that the US economy could eventually be seen as a positive for copper before the end of

4 Platinum After the US debt ceiling deal, the platinum market went into a tailspin, as prices fell $108 over the course of three trading sessions. At the market lows on August 8 th, platinum prices had fallen below gold for the first time in 2½ years. At the end of 2010, gold prices were $350 below platinum, and they were more than $1000 below platinum at the historic spread highs in early The S&P downgrade of US sovereign debt created a surge of safe-haven support for gold. At the same time, heavy pressure came down on industrial metals like platinum. Now that many of the aftereffects have been digested by the marketplace, platinum is likely to put together a large-scale recovery. A significant portion of platinum s selloff in early August came from the liquidation of futures positions due to margin calls and to losses from the equity markets. An improvement in market sentiment would likely lead to riskier positions being reinstated, particularly in those markets that have reached bargain levels. Higher levels of economic optimism may result in stronger US auto sales (for which platinum is used to maek catalytic convertors) and in increased purchases of platinum jewelry. Platinum prices would normally have found support from threats of a strike at a South African mine, one of the largest in the world, but that effect has been mitigated by bearish outside market forces. If that reverses and outside market factors begin to support platinum prices, there is a strong chance that platinum s premium to gold may reassert itself during the next few weeks. World Platinum Autocatayst Demand Percent of World China 3.9% North America 14.4% Japan 17.9% Rest of World 16.4% Europe 47.4% It is also possible that more salient recovery news will be forthcoming from the Japanese auto sector, as regularly scheduled Japanese data in early August showed some signs of improvement. It is probably not a coincidence that the platinum market peaked in the wake of the Japanese disaster, after it was clear that the crisis was going to have a longer shelf life than was initially expected. Therefore, platinum traders might increase the importance of Japanese economic data flows in the months ahead, as that could signal a long awaited improvement in industrial demand for platinum. 4

5 Crude Oil The crude oil market is down more than 32% from its May 2011 high, and it could be reaching a value area. Lofty valuations in May were the result of political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa, as well as from a positive demand outlook, but that landscape has shifted in recent months. While there are concerns of slowing economic growth and ongoing debt concerns in Europe and the US, we feel that the longer term issue of limited supplies will continue to support crude oil prices over the long term. The recent downdraft in crude oil prices has come about from reduced global oil demand, a haircut in second-half 2011 economic growth and panic selling. These factors have reduced the speculative froth in the crude oil market and pressured prices down toward attractive levels. Speculative interest in WTI crude oil reached an extreme in March, when the spec net long position reached 391,114 contracts. Those positions were eventually reduced to 228,692 by the August 2nd Commitments of Traders report. We feel that there is room for even more spec long liquidation ahead, down towards the 150,000 to 125,000 range. This would put it in the vicinity of the May 2010 low of 100,000, which corresponded with prices near $65.00 per barrel. Economic growth expectations came under pressure in late July, with surprisingly soft first quarter US growth, the debt ceiling debate and the downgrade on US debt. As a result, OPEC, the IEA and EIA lowered their 2011 global oil demand forecasts anywhere from 60,000 to 150,000 barrels. We also think there is a chance that these forecasts will be ratcheted down a bit more. But that doesn t mean that demand is not on the increase! In its August Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA still forecasted total world oil demand to increase by nearly 1.7% to million barrels per day in the Q At the same time, the EIA expects OECD commercial inventories to decline by as much as 2.5% by the end of 2011, which highlights the underlying issue of declining supplies in the face increasing global demand. 400, , , , , , ,000 50, ,000 Crude Oil - COT - Futures and Options Non-Commercial and Nonreportable Combined Net Position Number Of Contracts -100, The Hightower Report Source: CFTC Max: 391,114 (3/8/2011) - Min: -92,355 (12/30/1997) - Most Recent: 228,692 (08/02/2011) Crude oil prices grinded higher in 2010 and in early 2011, ultimately reaching a high in May near $ per barrel. But the last two years have also seen crude oil prices challenge support at the $70.00 area on 6 different occasions. We feel that crude oil is close to testing that level agsin in the very near future. That value is another $7.00 down from current levels, but the aggressive markdown phase of recent weeks may continue for a while. We like the longer term supply and demand fundamentals in the crude oil market. The recent weakness in closer-in contracts has brought prices back toward more normal valuations. Still, the weak economic backdrop could pressure prices lower before they turn higher. For trade strategies and updates, visit our blog at thehightowerreport.com 5

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