Market Price Considerations Week Beginning March 6, 2017
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1 Market Price Considerations Week Beginning March 6, 2017 DISCLAIMER-FOR-EDUCATIONAL-PURPOSES-ONLY Bobby Coats, Ph.D. Professor Economics Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Division of Agriculture University of Arkansas System 1
2 CHART BOOK INDEX MARKET PRICE CONSIDERATIONS FOR WEEK BEGINNING MARCH 6, 2017 Chart Book Index Chart 1. $UST10Y - 10-Year US Treasury Yield, Weekly Chart, 2014 Feb Chart 2. $UST10Y - 10-Year US Treasury Yield, Daily Chart, May 2016 Feb Chart 3. $UST10Y - 10-Year US Treasury Yield, Daily Chart, 2007 Feb Chart 4. Power Shares US Dollar Index, Weekly Chart, 2014 Feb Chart 5. Power Shares US Dollar Index, Daily Chart, July 2016 Feb Chart 6. Power Shares US Dollar Index, Monthly Chart, August 2007 Feb Chart 7. EURO Monthly Chart, 1997 Feb Chart 8. Australian Dollar Monthly Chart, 1997 Feb Chart 9. Canadian Dollar Monthly Chart, 1997 Feb Chart 10. Japanese Yen Monthly Chart, 1997 Feb Chart 11. British Pound Monthly Chart, 1997 Feb Chart 12. Dow Jones, Monthly Chart, 1997 Feb Chart 13. Dow Transports Monthly Chart, 1997 Feb Chart 14. S&P 500 Large Caps Monthly Chart, 1997 Feb Chart 15. Nasdaq Composite, Monthly Chart, 1997 Feb
3 CHART BOOK INDEX MARKET PRICE CONSIDERATIONS FOR WEEK BEGINNING MARCH 6, 2017 Chart Book Index Chart 16. World less U.S. & Canada Monthly Chart, 2001 Feb Chart 17. Emerging Markets Monthly Chart, 1997 Feb Chart 18. Australia Monthly Chart, 1997 Feb Chart 19. Brazil Monthly Chart, 1997 Feb Chart 20. Canada Monthly Chart, 1997 Feb Chart 21. China Monthly Chart, 2004 Feb Chart 22. Mexico Monthly Chart, 1997 Feb Chart 23. Japan Monthly Chart, 1997 Feb Chart 24. Russia Monthly Chart, 2007 Feb Chart 25. India Monthly Chart, 2007 Feb Chart 26. $CRB Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, Weekly Chart, November 2013 Feb Chart 27. $CRB Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, Daily Chart, July 2016 Feb Chart 28. $CRB Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, Monthly Chart, 2007 Feb Chart 29. $WTIC, Weekly Chart, 2014 Feb Chart 30. $WTIC, Daily Chart, July 2016 Feb
4 CHART BOOK INDEX MARKET PRICE CONSIDERATIONS FOR WEEK BEGINNING MARCH 6, 2017 Chart Book Index Chart 31. $WTIC, Monthly Chart, 2007 Feb Chart 32. Soybeans, Weekly Chart, 2014 Feb Chart 33. Soybeans, Daily Chart, July 2016 Feb Chart 34. Soybeans, Monthly Chart, 2004 Feb Chart 35. Corn, Weekly Chart, 2014 Feb Chart 36. Corn, Daily Chart, July 2016 Feb Chart 37. Corn, Monthly Chart, 2007 Feb Chart 38. Rough Rice Mar '17 (ZRF17) CBOT, Quarterly, Continuation Chart, 1987 Feb Chart 39. Rough Rice Mar '17 (ZRF17) CBOT, Daily Chart, Feb Feb Chart 40. Cotton, Weekly Chart, 2014 Feb Chart 41. Cotton, Daily CharJuly 2016 Feb Chart 42. Cotton, Monthly Chart, 1997 Feb Chart 43. Wheat, Weekly Chart, 2014 Feb Chart 44. Wheat, Daily Chart, July 2016 Feb Chart 45. Wheat, Monthly Chart, July 2016 Feb
5 CHART BOOK INDEX MARKET PRICE CONSIDERATIONS FOR WEEK BEGINNING MARCH 6, 2017 Chart Book Index Chart 46. Financial Sector, Weekly Chart, February 2014 Mar. 3, 2017 Chart 47. Health Care Sector, Weekly Chart, February 2014 Mar. 3, 2017 Chart 48. Technology Sector, Weekly Chart, February 2014 Mar. 3, 2017 Chart 49. Industrial Sector, Weekly Chart, February 2014 Mar. 3, 2017 Chart 50. Materials Sector, Weekly Chart, February 2014 Mar. 3, 2017 Chart 51. Energy Sector, Weekly Chart, February 2014 Mar. 3, 2017 Chart 52. Utilities Sector, Weekly Chart, February 2014 Mar. 3, 2017 Chart 53. Consumer Staples, Weekly Chart, February 2014 Mar. 3, 2017
6 NEAR TERM MARKET CONSIDERATIONS WEEK BEGINNING MARCH 6, 2017 This Weeks Select Summary Considerations: 10-Year US Treasury Yield: Moving in a sideways range between , potentially slightly bullish with a lower yield US Dollar Index: More weakness than strength presently, defining a trading range between CRB Index: Global macro forces in general remain supportive as global growth and reflationary forces slowly bear fruit $WTIC Light Crude Oil: A very important indicator of a confirmed commodity breakout would be Light Crude Oil closing and holding above $55 per barrel. Geo-economic and geopolitical issues seem to dominate price action. Technically this market appears in search of higher highs, fundamentals suggest some corrective price action should be anticipated Soybeans: More price weakness and ongoing consolidation has occurred since the week of February 13, 2017 than anticipated. Corrective price action appears to be underway. Potential price move toward the previous June 2016 $12.08 per bushel high or higher is still in play Corn: The potential of achieving a price level of $4.11- plus per bushel remains in play
7 NEAR TERM MARKET CONSIDERATIONS WEEK BEGINNING MARCH 6, 2017 Near Term Summary Considerations: Rice: Lagging demand increasingly problematic Overplanting in 2017 given present fundamentals would provide added market challenges Price will move in sympathy with grain prices and global economic momentum Rice producers overriding consideration for 2017 should be managing for a quality grain kernel Cotton: Complex price action underway with a bullish price objective into the 84-cent area stills remains in play. Fed verbal guidance and fiscal and trade policy considerations appear to have created some near term headwinds for cotton market prices Wheat: Price action a little spastic, but bullish price potential to $4.95 still a possibility SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF: Bullish price action and positive trend, prices can always correct or consolidate and give back some of their gains QQQ NASDAQ Power Shares: Another good week, corrective price action needed, but not required EFA ishares ETF - Global Equities Excluding U.S. and Canada: Building momentum and price strength EEM ishares ETF, Emerging Market Equities: Slight pause, but momentum remains positive
8 $UST10Y 10 Year US Treasury Yield Monthly Charts - Presentation This Week Primary Consideration: Near term yield remains in a sideways range between This week potentially slightly bullish with a lower yield This is a market that likely builds a trading range for the next one to two years with Global Government and Central Bank intervention and unfolding global events defining potential upside with a potential top at 3-possibly higher As global events unfold (economic, political, social, etc.) chart activity will provide guidance Present market structure suggests financial institutions and borrowers are winners at these levels Some suggest the 35 year bull bond market will be over with a yield that holds above 2.6, others at 3.0; Actually, global fiscal and monetary policy market intervention likely make picking these points very premature This is a market that could simply move sideways for a few years and even revisit the previous low or make a new low
9 Chart 1. $UST10Y - 10-Year US Treasury Yield, Weekly Chart, 2014 Mar. 3, 2017
10 Chart 2. $UST10Y - 10-Year US Treasury Yield, Daily Chart, June 2016 Mar. 3, 2017
11 Chart 3. $UST10Y - 10-Year US Treasury Yield, Daily Chart, 2004 Mar. 3, 2017
12 This Week Primary Considerations: More weakness than strength presently Defining a trading range US Dollar Index Weekly, Daily, and Monthly Charts The following determines sideways consolidation for a period or a resumption of the dollar s move to the upside: 2017 European Union management/mismanagement a key factor in dollar strength or weakness in the year ahead with next major test being the French Elections Bigger Picture: Global interventionist Government and Central Bank activities will define dollar strength or weakness over the next 3 to 12 months, including President Trump s currency, trade, regulatory policy objectives
13 Chart 4. U.S. Dollar Index, Weekly Chart, Sept Mar. 3, 2017
14 Chart 5. US Dollar Index, Daily Chart, September 2016 Mar. 3, 2017
15 Chart 6. US Dollar Index, Monthly Chart, 1997 Mar. 3, 2017
16 Select Currency Charts Monthly Charts
17 Chart 7. EURO Monthly Chart, 1997 Mar. 3, 2017 Likely bullish near term, bearish fundamentals, be respectful of this market
18 Chart 8. Australian Dollar Monthly Chart, 1997 Mar. 3, 2017 Slowly building momentum
19 Chart 9. Canadian Dollar Monthly Chart 1997 Mar. 3, 2017 Presently consolidating, more strength than weakness as the year progresses
20 Chart 10. Japanese Yen Monthly Chart 1997 Mar. 3, 2017 Trend remains down
21 Chart 11. British Pound, Monthly Chart 1997 Mar. 3, 2017 Slight correction underway before heading lower
22 Select Equity and Transportation Charts Monthly Charts
23 Chart 12. Dow Jones, Monthly Chart, 1997 Mar. 3, 2017 Trend remains up
24 Chart 13. Dow Transports Monthly Chart, 1997 Mar. 3, 2017 Trend remains up
25 Chart 14. S&P 500 Large Caps Monthly Chart, 1997 Mar. 3, 2017 Trend remains up
26 Chart 15. Nasdaq Composite, Monthly Chart, 1997 Mar. 3, 2017 Trend remains up
27 Select Global Equity Charts
28 Chart 16. World less U.S. & Canada Weekly Chart, 2001 Mar. 3, 2017 Positive momentum
29 Chart 17. Emerging Markets Monthly Chart, 1997 Mar. 3, 2017 Slight pause, momentum remains positive
30 Chart 18. Australia Monthly Chart, 1997 Mar. 3, 2017 Positive bullish momentum
31 Chart 19. Brazil Monthly Chart 2000 Mar. 3, 2017 Cautiously bullish
32 Chart 20. Canada Monthly Chart 1997 Mar. 3, 2017 Cautiously bullish
33 Chart 21. China Monthly Chart, 2004 Mar. 3, 2017 Consolidation gains. economic momentum remains positive
34 Chart 22. Mexico Monthly Chart 1997 Mar. 3, 2017 Possible bottom formed, building momentum
35 Chart 23. Japan Monthly Chart 1997 Mar. 3, 2017 Building strength
36 Chart 24. Russia Monthly Chart 2007 Mar. 3, 2017 Momentum slowing
37 Chart 25. India Monthly Chart 2007 Mar. 3, 2017 Building momentum and strength
38 This Week Primary consideration: CRB Commodity Index Weekly, Daily and Monthly Charts This indicator has been struggling since the week of February 13, 2017 due in-part to Fed continuing verbal guidance Global macro forces in general remain supportive as global growth and reflationary forces bear fruit That said, for the CRB Commodity Index to move higher will likely be a function of oil price leadership and/or broad commodity support, a reasonably stable to weaker dollar and belief and confidence in global fiscal/monetary policy leadership A cautionary note -- The $CRB below 180 would be a dangerous negative for the commodity sector
39 Chart 26. $CRB Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, Weekly Chart, December 2013 Mar. 3, 2017
40 Chart 27. $CRB Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, Daily Chart, August 2016 Mar. 3, 2017
41 Chart 28. $CRB Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, Monthly Chart, 2007 Mar. 3, 2017
42 $WTIC Light Crude Oil Weekly, Daily and Monthly Charts This Week Primary Consideration: A very important indicator of a confirmed commodity breakout would be Light Crude Oil closing and holding above $55 per barrel. Geo-economic and geopolitical issues seem to dominate price action. Technically this market appears in search of higher highs, fundamentals suggest some corrective price action should be anticipated 2017 Likely primary range $40 to $60 with possible high in $72 area Washington Leadership likely bullish U.S. production OPEC and other oil producers have major role in defining 2017 price structure Global uncertainties supportive of prices
43 Chart 29. $WTIC, Weekly Chart, 2014 Mar. 3, 2017
44 Chart 30. $WTIC, Daily Chart, August 2016 Mar. 3, 2017
45 Chart 31. $WTIC, Monthly Chart, 2007 Mar. 3, 2017
46 Soybeans Weekly, Daily and Monthly Charts This Week Primary Consideration: More price weakness and ongoing consolidation has occurred since the week of February 13, 2017 than anticipated. Corrective price action appears to be underway Potential price move toward the previous June 2016 $12.08 per bushel high or higher is still in play Additional Thought: Market participants appear to have a risk appetite. Being short means at least having close mental stops
47 Chart 32. Soybeans, Weekly Chart, 2014 Mar. 3, 2017
48 Chart 33. Soybeans, Daily Chart, 2016 Mar. 3, 2017
49 Chart 34. Soybeans, Monthly Chart, 2004 Mar. 3, 2017
50 Corn Weekly, Daily and Monthly Charts Near Term Primary consideration: The potential of achieving a price level of $4.11- plus per bushel remains in play
51 Chart 35. Corn, Weekly Chart, 2014 Mar. 3, 2017
52 Chart 36. Corn, Daily Chart, August 2016 Mar. 3, 2017
53 Chart 37. Corn, Monthly Chart, 2007 Mar. 3, 2017
54 Rice Quarterly and Daily Charts Near Term Primary consideration: Lagging demand increasingly problematic Overplanting in 2017 given present fundamentals would provide added market challenges Price will move in sympathy with grain prices and global economic momentum Rice producers overriding consideration for 2017 should be managing for a quality grain kernel
55 Chart 38. Rough Rice May '17 CBOT Weekly Chart April 2015 Mar. 3, 2017
56 Chart 39. Rough Rice May '17, CBOT Daily Chart Mar Mar. 3, 2017
57 Cotton Weekly, Daily and Monthly Charts Near Term Primary Consideration: Fed verbal guidance and fiscal and trade policy considerations appear to have created some near term headwinds for cotton market prices Complex price action underway with a bullish price objective into the 84-cent area still remains in play
58 Chart 40. Cotton, Weekly Chart, 2014 Mar. 3, 2017
59 Chart 41. Cotton, Daily Chart, September 2016 Mar. 3, 2017
60 Chart 42. Cotton, Monthly Chart, 1997 Mar. 3, 2017
61 Wheat Weekly, Daily and Monthly Charts Near Term Primary consideration: Price action a little spastic, but bullish price potential to $4.95 still a possibility
62 Chart 43. Wheat, Weekly Chart, 2014 Mar. 3, 2017
63 Chart 44. Wheat, Daily Chart, August 2016 Mar. 3, 2017
64 Chart 45. Wheat, Monthly Chart, August 2016 Mar. 3, 2017
65 S&P Sectors
66 Chart 46. Financial Sector, Weekly Chart, February 2014 Mar. 3, 2017
67 Chart 47. Health Care Sector, Weekly Chart, February 2014 Mar. 3, 2017
68 Chart 48. Technology Sector, Weekly Chart, February 2014 Mar. 3, 2017
69 Chart 49. Industrial Sector, Weekly Chart, February 2014 Mar. 3, 2017
70 Chart 50. Materials Sector, Weekly Chart, February 2014 Mar. 3, 2017
71 Chart 51. Energy Sector, Weekly Chart, February 2014 Mar. 3, 2017
72 Chart 52. Utilities Sector, Weekly Chart, February 2014 Mar. 3, 2017
73 Chart 53. Consumer Staples, Weekly Chart, February 2014 Mar. 3, 2017
74 End
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