October 2015 REGULAR MONTHLY LINEUP:

Transcription

1 October REGULAR MONTHLY LINEUP: SP- E-Mini YR US T-Bond Euro FX Natural Gas Corn Dow Jones Mini YR US T-Note Japanese Yen Heating Oil Wheat Russell Mini YR US T-Note US Dollar Index Gold Soybeans NASDAQ- E-Mini Eurodollar Crude Oil Silver Live Cattle BEYOND THE SCOPE: Frozen Orange Juice (ICE) Containment Weighting Legend: * weekly ** monthly *** quarterly **** annual Orange Juice monthly continuation MACD (-.) ICE FCOJ-A NOV (.,.,.,., -.) x Support / Resistance. ****. *. *. *. ***. ***. *. *. ***. ***. *. *. ***. **** The.-. region can contain strength through the balance of the year, below which ultra-longterm support in the.-. region is expected over this time horizon, possibly by the end of October, where Frozen Orange Juice (ICE) should bottom out through - if not the balance of the decade. An end-of-october settlement below. sustains a decidedly bearish dynamic into next year,. then considered an - month target likely to contain longer-term selling pressures when tested. Upside, an October settlement above. signals.-. within several months, able to contain quarterly buying pressures when tested and a meaningful upside tipping point into,. then considered an - month target able to contain annual buying pressures when tested. Pertinent Analysis: Please know that the Monthly Futures Wrap primarily uses volume-based continuation charts in its analysis. While there will be certain exceptions, especially regarding Agricultural futures, this essentially means that if any of the markets presented this month roll from one lead contract to the next due to an intra-month migration (rollover) in trading volume, you can continue to use the same support and resistance levels presented in this publication for the new contract. If a particular market rolls intra-month from one contract to another and requires fresh analysis, rest assured you ll receive a revision update of the Monthly Futures Wrap to account for this new information. Disclaimer: You should fully understand the risks associated with trading futures, options, and ETF s before making any trades. Trading futures, options, ETF s and Forex involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. On the web at info@artacadvisory.com phone:.. P a g e

2 SP- E-MINI Dec MACD (DEMA-smoothed) (-., -.).-. **. *. *. *. ***. *. *. *. *. ****. *. *. *. **** (volume rollover) Relative Strength Index (.) EMINI S&P DEC (,.,,.,,.,,., -.).. - x - A two-sided framework exists over the next - weeks between the. and. channel formations. Six-year channel support at. is the more significant of the two, able to contain selling through the balance of the year. A weekly settlement early in the month below. signals. within - weeks, ultra-long-term support able to contain selling through - if not the balance of the decade. Holding above. should, over the next - months, reach a. target stemming from a long-term buy signal Artac Advisory s referred to since February. Upside, an October settlement above. signals recovery within several weeks into the.-. region, likely to contain monthly highs when tested and a meaningful upside acceleration point into, the., - month target then narrowing to within - months.... Dow Jones Mini Dec MACD (.) DJ MINI($) DEC (,.,,.,,.,,., -.) settlement Monthly below Chart (rising monthly) would put a serious dent in the six-year bull-trend, the market then prone - - x x ** * * ** * * * * **** * * * ** The Dow conveys a similar dynamic as the SP-, with a two-sided framework for the next several months between and, the speed-line at considered trend-defining through *****, above which new highs are considered an inevitability over this time horizon. While not expected in, a weekly to collapsing into the region via trade this negative scenario obviously screaming global recession. Upside, the formation can contain monthly buying pressures when tested, with an October settlement above signaling within - months, expected within - months, able to contain annual highs when tested. P a g e

3 RUSSELL MINI Dec. ***. ***. *. *. **. *. **. *. *. *. *. ****. *. ****. *. *. *. ** MACD (DEMA-smoothed) (-., -.) Relative Strength Index (.) MiRUK DEC (,.,,.,,.,,., -.). -. The small-cap Russell (Mini) displays a wide range of meaningful support from. down to. likely to contain selling through, above which the market should drift higher into later year,. expected by the end of Q where the Russell can top out on a monthly basis. While not expected via October trade, a weekly settlement above. indicates a good low,. then expected within a full month of trade, the.-. region expected within - months where the index can top out into later. Downside, a monthly settlement below. maintains a sustained downside pace into, the., high then expected within - months, the. speed-line attainable within - months where the Russell should bottom out through the balance of the decade. NASDAQ- E-MINI Dec. MACD (DEMA-smoothed) (-.,.) Relative Strength Index (.) NAS EMIN DEC (,.,,.,,.,,., -.) The. formation can absorb NASDAQ- selling pressures through the balance of the year, above which a retest of the,. high remains a - month reality. Upside,. can contain monthly highs when tested, with an October settlement above. indicating. within - months where the techsensitive index can double-top through Q. A monthly settlement above. would sustain a decidedly bullish dynamic into later,. then considered an - month objective. Downside this month, a settlement below. signals. within several months (weeks?), where the NQ can bottom out through and above which a clear, six-year bull-trend remains firmly intact. While not anticipated via trade, a monthly settlement below. sustains a negative dynamic into later,. then expected within - months. P a g e x - x. ***. *. *. *. *. **. *. *. *. *. ****. *. *. *. *. *. ****. x

4 YR US Treasury Bond Dec. ****. *. *. *. ***. *. *. *. **. *. **. *. *. ***. *. *. **** The. level can contain October selling pressures, above which. remains a monthly target able to contain strength through the balance of the year, once tested the one. formation attainable within - months. A monthly settlement above. signals. within - months, long-term channel-top resistance able to contain strength through, once tested the. channel-base attainable within - months. Downside this month, a weekly settlement early in the month below. indicates. within - weeks, also able to contain monthly selling pressures and the level to settle below for yielding. by the end of November, able to contain quarterly selling pressures when tested. While highly unexpected this month, a settlement below. signals. within another month or two of activity, able to contain selling through. YR US Treasury Note Dec Orange Juice monthly continuation - volume rollover MACD (.) US T BONDS DEC (.,.,.,., +.)..... x MACD (.) YR TNotes DEC (.,.,.,., +.) - volume rollover.. - x. ***. *. *. **. *. *. *. ****. *. **... ****. **** Seven-year channel support at. can contain selling through, above which a bullish dynamic continues over this time horizon. Upside,. can contain monthly highs, with an end-of-october settlement above. signaling. by the end of November, able to contain strength into mid- and an important upside acceleration point into later - the. region considered a - month target following monthly settlement above.. Downside, an October settlement below. indicates bearish continuation over the following - months into the.. region, a narrowing range of ultra-long-term support able to contain selling through the balance of the decade. A violation of. would signal a good top into next decade,. then expected within a full year, the lower. s within several years. P a g e

5 YR US Treasury Note Dec. ****. *. *. **. *. ***. ***. *. *. **. *. *. ***. *. *. *. *. **** MACD (-.) YR T NOTES DEC (.,.,.,., +.). -. The YR Note encounters meaningful resistance in the.-. region able to absorb buying through Q, below which the market should slip back into the. area over the next - months. While largely irrelevant for the October edition, a settlement below. indicates several more months of bearish continuation to., able to contain selling through and a meaningful downside acceleration point over the same time horizon. Upside, an end-of-october settlement above. indicates. within - months, able to contain strength through. A monthly settlement above. signals - months of upward continuation into the. area, able to contain strength through, possibly the balance of the decade EURODOLLAR Dec MACD (.) M EURO$ DEC (.,.,.,., +.) A S ON D A MJ J A S ON D A MJ J A S ON D A MJ J A S ON D A MJ J A S ON D A MJ J A. **** The December Eurodollar continues to narrow its way into an ascending wedge formation that essentially encompasses a less than. % LIBOR. The top of this wedge at. can contain activity through the balance of, once tested the wedge-base at. attainable within a full month of activity and able to contain monthly selling pressures when tested. An end-of-october settlement below. signals. within - months where the ED can bottom out through Q. While not expected for October, a monthly close below. signals - months collapse into the. region where the ED complex can place a low. Upside trade should grow increasingly non-volatile as we approach. (.%), with an October close above. signaling. in November likely to contain monthly buying pressures if/when tested. P a g e **. *. *. *****. *. *. **. *. *. *. *. ***

6 Euro FX Dec. ***. **. *. *. *. *. **. *. *. *. *.. **** Relative Strength Index (.) MACD (-.) EURO FX DEC (.,.,.,., +.) After an aggressive, Orange one-year Juice monthly selloff the continuation Euro FX has spent the last six months consolidating inside an ascending channel formation, generally considered a bearish development - though acting too early opens the short position holder to countertrend activity. The channel-base at. can contain selling into November, above which the channel top currently at. is attainable via October trade and represents the start of a range of meaningful resistance up to. likely to contain buying through Q. Holding below the.- region should yield the. formation over the next - months; an October settlement below. indicates. within - months where the EC can bottom out through. Upside, an end-of-october settlement above. indicates a good long-term low, the. region then considered a - month target. Japanese Yen Dec MACD (-.) JPANESE YEN DEC (.,.,.,., +.) After a four-year % collapse reminiscent of the - slide, the Japanese Yen is close to testing -year channel support at.. Nearer term, the. level can contain selling through October, above which. is attainable over this time horizon, able to contain Q highs and below which the. formation remains a - month target. An end-of-october settlement above. indicates a good low, the. level then expected within - months, the. formation within - months where the JY can top out into. Downside, an October settlement below. signals. within several months, able to contain selling through the balance of the decade. A surprise October settlement below. sustains bearish momentum through, the. region then considered a - month target. P a g e x. **. *. *. *. *. ***. *. *. **. *. *. *. ****.

7 US Dollar Index Dec. *. *. ***. *. *. *. *. **. *. *. ****. *. *. ** MACD (.) ICE DOLIDX DEC (.,.,.,., +.)... - The. level can contain October selling pressures, and essentially marks the beginning of a wide zone of long-term support down to the. speed-line able to contain selling through, above which a bullish dynamic continues into later decade,. expected within several months,. within - months, the. formation within several years. An end-of-october settlement below. signals. in November, the. speed-line within - months likely to contain selling through and a meaningful downside continuation point into later decade. Upside,. can contain buying through Q, once tested the.-. region attainable again within - months. A monthly settlement above. resumes a decidedly bullish into early,. then expected within - months, able to contain strength into later. ly continuation Crude Oil WTI Nov. MACD (-.) LIGHT CRUDE NOV (.,.,.,., -.) The. level can contain October highs, below which the..,. low is attainable within the month, able to contain a double-bottom low through. An October settlement below. indicates. within several months,. attainable by the end of where Sweet-Crude should bottom out on a decade-long basis. Upside, a weekly settlement early in the month above. allows. by the end of October, the start of a wide range of long-term resistance up to. able to contain strength through the balance of the year - below which. is begging for a retest over the next several months. An end of October settlement above. indicates a good low,. than expected within several months,. within - months, the start of a wide range of longer-term resistance up to. likely to contain highs if tested. P a g e x. ***. **. *. *. *. **. *. *. *. **** x

8 Heating Oil Nov. ***. *. *. *. **. *. *. *. *. *. ****. **** MACD (-.) NY H ULSD OCT (.,.,.,., -.) The. level can contain monthly highs, below which ultra-long-term support in the.- region remains a - month target able to contain selling through, quite possibly through the balance of the decade. A surprise end-of-october settlement below. sustains a bearish dynamic well into next year,. than expected within several months,. attainable within - months. Upside, a weekly settlement early in the month above. allows. by the end of October, able to contain strength through the balance of the year and below which the.- region remains a - month target. While highly unexpected this month, an October settlement above. signals. within several months,. within - months, able to contain strength through and a meaningful upside tipping point into later decade. Natural Gas Nov MACD (-.) NAT GAS OCT (.,.,.,., -.) **. *. *. *. ***. ***. *. *. *. *. ****. *. *. *. *** Long-term support at. can contain selling through, above which the.- region remains a - month target,. attainable by the end of next year. Upside, the.- region can contain quarterly buying pressures when tested, with a monthly settlement above.- confirming a good long-term low,. then expected within - months,. within - months where this market can top-out on an annual basis. Downside, an end-of-october settlement below. maintains a heavy dynamic into - albeit within a suppressed volatility dynamic -. then expected within several months,. attainable within - months, able to contain lows. P a g e.

9 Gold COMEX Dec. ****. *. *. *. **. *. *. *. ***. *. *. *. *. *. ***. **** MACD (-.) OZ GOLD DEC (,.,,.,,.,,., -.).. -. The. level can contain strength through December, below which the.-. region remains a - month target. The.-. region represents the convergence of a long-term / speed line (.), a twoyear descending channel bottom (.), and the,. high, forming a range of support able to absorb selling through Q. Holding above this region allows recovery over the next - months into the. area, while an October settlement below. indicates the.-. region within several months, ultra-long-term support able to contain selling through - possibly the balance. of the decade. Upside, an October settlement above. indicates. in November,. within - months where the market can top out through as well as representing a meaningful upside tipping point over the same time horizon. Silver COMEX Dec... - x MACD (-.) SILVER DEC (.,.,.,., +.) ****. ****. *. *. ***. ***. *. *. *. **. ***. *. *. *** The.-. region can absorb buying through December, below which the.-. area (narrowing monthly) remains a - month target able to absorb selling into later. While highly unlikely by the end of October, a monthly settlement below. maintains a decidedly heavy dynamic into, ultra-longterm support at. then expected over the following - months where the Silver market can bottom out on a decade-long basis. Upside, an end-of-october settlement above. signals recovery over the following - months into the.- region, able to contain strength through and below which the - year trend remains negative - needing to place a monthly settlement above. to instill a stable to bullish dynamic into later decade. P a g e

10 Corn CBOT Dec. ***. *. *. **. *. *. *. *. *. **. *. *. *. *. *. **** CORN DEC (.,.,.,., +.) The. formation can contain selling through October, above which a stable to bullish dynamic continues through the balance of the year,. attainable over the next - months. Upside,. should contain monthly buying pressures when tested, with an October settlement above indicating. via November trade, able to contain strength into summer and a meaningful upside tipping point over the same time horizon. Downside, an October settlement below. indicates a test of long-term support at. by the end of the year, able to contain selling through - quite possibly through the balance of the decade. While highly unanticipated by the end of October, a monthly settlement below. weighs heavily on the Corn market into, the. region than attainable within a full year of activity. Soybeans CBOT Nov MACD (-.) SOYBEANS NOV (.,.,.,., -.) Orange Juice monthly continuation... Long-term support at. can contain selling through, above.which. remains a - month.. target,. attainable into spring. Upside,. can contain monthly buying pressures, once tested. attainable within - weeks. An October settlement above. indicates a good low,. then expected by the end of November where a broader complex should top out through the balance of the year. A monthly settlement above. sustains bullish momentum into early,. then considered a - month target able to contain strength through summer. Downside, an October settlement below. sustains a bearish dynamic into,. than expected by the end of December,. expected into next summer where the Bean market should place an annual low, quite possibly through the balance of the decade. P a g e MACD (-.).. - x - x. ***. *. *. *. *. *. *. **. ****. *. *. *. *. *. **.. - x

11 Wheat CBOT Dec. ***. *. *. *. *. **. *. *. *. **. *. *. *. **** WHEAT SRW DEC (.,.,.,., +.) The. level can contain October selling pressures, above which the. channel-top remains a - month target able to contain strength well into. Overall, continued monthly settlements below. maintain a - year bear-trend, the channel-base at. expected over the next - months. An October settlement above. signals recovery into the. region within - months where the Wheat market can top out through summer as well as representing a significant upside tipping point into. Downside, a monthly settlement below. indicates. by the end of November, the targeted. formation within - months, able to contain selling through. While highly unlikely between now and the end of the year, a monthly settlement below. sustains a decidedly bearish dynamic into,. then considered an - month target. Live Cattle Dec Orange Juice monthly continuation MACD (.) LIVE CATTLE OCT (.,.,.,., -.) The. region can contain monthly buying pressures, below which bearish momentum following a longer-term sell signal below. remains firmly intact, the. formation remaining a - month target. On the way down,. can contain monthly selling pressures when tested, with an October settlement below... indicating. via November trade, able to contain selling through. A surprise October settlement below. sustains bearish momentum into later next year,. then considered an - month target. Upside, an October settlement above. signals November recovery into the.-. region, narrowing monthly and able to contain strength into spring and the region to penetrate for reversing momentum into next spring,. then expected within - months, possibly higher into later. P a g e MACD (-.).. x. ***. ***. *. *. *. **. *. *. *. *. *. **. *. *. *. ****.. - x