What s the Canary in the Financial Coal Mine Saying?
|
|
- Miles Morrison
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 What s the Canary in the Financial Coal Mine Saying? December 22, 2015 by Martin Pring of Pring Turner Capital Group Credit spreads, which measure the relationship between bonds of different credit ratings, are arguably one of the most overlooked tools in financial market analysis. That is a shame because reversals in the momentum of credit spreads offer reliable signals of changes in the fortunes of bonds, stocks and commodities. Current evidence suggests some of these relationships have reached a critical juncture point, which means further deterioration in junk bonds and their connection with higher quality ones could lead to a crisis prone Alternatively, a fundamental improvement in these relationships, as junk bonds pull back from the brink, would signal an improving economy, equity and commodity markets. In this respect, it is perhaps ironic that mini-crises, such as that developing in the area of credit challenged bonds, would normally elicit easing from the Fed, yet instead the central bank has decided to raise rates! The Contrarian Aspect To set the scene, there have been several prominent articles in the financial press concerning the drop in junk bond prices. In addition, the Third Avenue junk bond fund recently halted redemptions to enable management to liquidate its portfolio in an orderly fashion. This very unusual step, combined with the plethora of articles, is more typical of the terminal phase of a trend than its initiation. The possibility that junk bonds have already hit their lows is therefore a very real possibility. After all, the theory of contrary opinion tells us when everyone understands the argument, there is no one left to sell. Ergo, the prevailing trend is more likely to reverse than continue. Let us hope so, because Chart 1 shows that, if we exclude the financial crisis, Moody s BAA corporate yield has violated its secular downtrend. The 2013 high has not yet been surpassed, but a rising not yet extended momentum curve in the lower panel argues that it might soon. The chart is telling us that these rates are going up, but the way in which they rise is far more important. For example, a general rise in rates, at least initially, would signal a healthy economy. Higher yields due to fears of widespread defaults would be another matter. Chart 1 Moody s BAA Corporate Bond Yields Page 1, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
2 Long-term trendline violations are usually followed by a long-term move in yields More to the point, the relationship between such bonds and higher quality treasuries has proved to be an excellent canary in the financial coal mine for the economy, bond yields, equities and commodities. The basic concept compares the yield of a poorer quality credit instrument with that of a higher quality one. When investors are confident they push up the prices of riskier higher yielding paper. This is echoed in a recovering economy, together with higher bond yields, equity and commodity prices. When bond investors show a strong preference for treasuries this caution is usually associated with a reversal in these financial market trends. Credit Spreads and the Bond Market Chart 2 compares the yield on Moody s Corporate AAA bond yield to that of a momentum measure of the ratio between Moody s BAA corporate bonds and 10-year treasuries. We use the BAA series due to the fact that it has a longer history than junk bond ETF s or indexes. Also, momentum, rather than the ratio s raw data, is employed because it is more subject to cyclical swings and tends to trade in definable bands. BAA rated paper is not considered to be junk, rather a lower quality investment grade. Even so, this relationship reflects swings in bond market confidence quite accurately. The principal message is that reversals in the spread favoring BAA bond prices indicate a growing investor confidence in the economy, as witnessed by the fact that such action is usually followed by higher rates. Upside reversals are signaled when the ratio crosses above its 6-month MA from a sub-zero position. Such instances have been identified with the solid vertical green lines. The dashed ones indicate where such crossovers were not followed by a rise in rates. Relating the red highlighted recessions to the vertical lines indicates that credit spread momentum has a strong tendency to reverse during the very early stages of the recovery. Other reversals, not marked by a recession such as 1966, are typically followed by a resumption of growth, which is also followed by higher corporate Page 2, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
3 bond yields. Chart 2 Moody s AAA Bond Yields versus Credit Spread Momentum Sub-zero reversals in credit spread momentum are usually followed by an improving economy and higher bond yields This relationship is currently quite overextended on the downside, so it would not be unreasonable to expect a reversal, but there is one important caveat. Chart 3 shows that at the end of November the CRB Composite (182.5) was right at a 40-year support trendline; so was the price of West Texas Crude ($39.75). Since then both series have extended their declines to 171 and $36, respectively. It is important to note that this is a monthly chart which requires a month end close. Current prices are an estimate therefore, and do not officially count. Even so, early December price erosion does underscore the current precarious technical nature of the commodity markets. The relevance to our discussion is the fact that resource based bond issues, have been leading junk bond prices lower because of their questionable credit rating. Commodity weakness, if it continues, will exacerbate the problem, suggesting that the final bottom for the spreads featured in Chart 6 may lie ahead. If that proves to be the case, it would likely mean lower rates for top quality debt instruments. Chart 3 CRB Composite and Oil Prices Page 3, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
4 Long-term trendline violations are usually followed by large price moves Quality Spreads and the Equity Market Chart 4 shows the momentum of this same relationship, but this time it is being compared to the S&P Composite. In this instance the vertical lines indicate reversals from at or below the -10% green horizontal line. Solid lines again represent success and dashed ones false positives. Note that pretty well every time this series reverses to the upside it signals a great buying opportunity for equities. Two of the four false signals developed when the S&P was below its 12-month MA and the other two in 2011 and early 2015 were quickly reversed. Currently, the indicator is moving lower so this model is bearish. Chart 4 Equity prices Versus Credit Market Spread Momentum Page 4, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
5 When quality spread momentum reverses to the upside it s usually positive for equities Quality Spreads and Commodities Because quality spreads are tied to the economy their momentum also acts as a leading indicator for bull and bear price movements in industrial commodity prices. Chart 5 compares the CRB Spot Raw Industrials with their long-term momentum and that for the spread between the Moody s BAA yields, but this time using the 20-year government series. The brown arrows indicate that (blue) bond market momentum has a strong, but not perfect, habit of turning ahead of (green) commodity velocity. Right now both are declining, so neither is signaling that commodities have bottomed. Chart 5 Commodity Prices versus Credit Spread Momentum Page 5, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
6 Reversals in credit spread momentum usually lead commodity prices Quality Spreads at a Crucial Technical Juncture Chart 6 shows three more measures of bond market confidence, this time featuring the actual relationships as opposed to their momentum. Each one is either approaching or cutting through very important support in the form of the three horizontal trendlines. More serious violations of those support zones would signal that further deterioration lay ahead. In that event, these canaries would indicate a weaker economy, lower equity prices and higher long-dated treasuries. On the other hand, a successful assault on the three green trendlines and 65-week EMA s would strongly indicate that financial markets were moving away from crisis mode towards a more optimistic one. That is because a set of rising ratios would represent bond market sentiment voting for a stronger economy, higher equity and commodity prices. Using Friday close prices that would occur with a JNK/IEF reading in excess of.36 and a HYG/TLT level above.76. Such action would decisively violate the trendlines and cross above the 65-week EMA. Until then, the song being sung by our canaries is a very cautious one. Chart 6 Three Credit Spreads Page 6, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
7 Credit spreads near critical juncture points Martin Pring is Chairman of Pring Turner Capital (Pringturner.com) and editor of the Intermarket Review (Pring.com) Pring Turner Capital Group Page 7, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
A Slowdown is in the Bag, but What About a Recession?
A Slowdown is in the Bag, but What About a Recession? January 11, 2019 by Martin Pring of Pring Turner Capital Group There is little doubt that the US economy is in a state of slowdown. That s actually
More informationMartin Pring s. Weekly InfoMovie Report. April 12, 2012
Martin Pring s Weekly InfoMovie Report April 12, 2012 Issue 993 Weekly InfoMovie Report 1 Bearish US Equity Market - Last week I pointed out that this up trendline for the diffusion indicator monitoring
More informationUsing Technical Analysis to Navigate the Business Cycle
Using Technical Analysis to Navigate the Business Cycle Martin J. Pring Market Technicians Association May 2012 1900-2012 US Stock Prices 4 These look like trading ranges. 3 2 1 Deflated US Stock Prices
More informationMartin Pring s. Weekly InfoMovie Report. April 8, 2014
Martin Pring s Weekly InfoMovie Report April 8, 2014 Issue 1093 Weekly InfoMovie Report 1 Key level remains $184 on the SPY. US Equity Market - Last time I pointed out that the $184 level on the S&P ETF
More informationMartin Pring s. Weekly InfoMovie Report. December 27, Happy New Year to Our Wonderful Subcriber Family! May 2013 be Prosperous and Productive!
Martin Pring s Weekly InfoMovie Report December 27, 2012 Issue 1028 Happy New Year to Our Wonderful Subcriber Family! May 2013 be Prosperous and Productive! The Pring Family ~ 2012 Weekly InfoMovie Report
More informationHas the Fat Lady Started to Sing on the Housing Market?
Has the Fat Lady Started to Sing on the Housing Market? May 30, 2013 by Martin Pring of Pring Turner Capital Group As decision makers we are continually looking for clues from economic activity in order
More informationWhat Would It Take to Trigger a Secular Reversal in Bond Yields?
What Would It Take to Trigger a Secular Reversal in Bond Yields? January 18, 2018 by Martin Pring of Pring Turner Capital Group In the fall of 1981, the twenty-year US bond yield peaked slightly above
More informationInvesting in the Second Lost Decade. IFTA Europe Martin J. Pring. Pring.com. PringTurner.com
Investing in the Second Lost Decade IFTA Europe 2014 Martin J. Pring pring.com/ifta-2014.html 1. Copy of this presentation 2. Copy of article Is the Secular Bear Market About to Resume? 3. Copy of latest
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. January 4, Daily Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on January 4, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Positive Low Positive Low Transports
More informationOSCILLATORS. TradeSmart Education Center
OSCILLATORS TradeSmart Education Center TABLE OF CONTENTS Oscillators Bollinger Bands... Commodity Channel Index.. Fast Stochastic... KST (Short term, Intermediate term, Long term) MACD... Momentum Relative
More informationS&P 500 Update: Week ending May 11th 2018
S&P 500 Update: Week ending May 11th 2018 1. Market Recap: The S&P 500 closed higher by 2.2% for week and broke out of some key resistance areas and a short term downtrend. There are 4 topics now setting
More informationSurveying The Commodity Carnage
Surveying The Commodity Carnage November 25, 2015 by Doug Ramsey of Leuthold Weeden Capital Management Commodities and commodity stocks have been a disaster in recent years, but fortunately one that our
More informationMartin Pring s. Weekly InfoMovie Report. December 19, 2012
Martin Pring s Weekly InfoMovie Report December 19, 2012 Issue 1027 Merry Christmas to All! And may 2013 bring joyous Blessings and your Family know Joy and Peace! The Pring Family ~ 2012 Weekly InfoMovie
More informationMartin J. Pring President of Pring.com
Martin J. Pring President of Pring.com How to Manage Risk Using Technical Analysis The first trading objective is to preserve capital #1 Trading rule Cut losses quickly, let profits run. First trade 50%
More informationIntermediate-a? SPX2533
Summary Like last week, also this week s Friday-price action left a lot to be desired for the Bulls and ambiguity regarding which exact Elliot Wave price pattern remains: major-4 still underway? Major-4
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. January 18, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on January 18, 2019 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Positive Low Positive Low Transports
More information10-Year Treasury Notes ($UST Price)
1 Weekly Inter-market Technical Report 10-Year Treasury Notes ($UST Price) Monthly Continuing from last week's report, bonds (notes) appear to be on a strong buy signal on the monthly chart, as price is
More informationThe Return of the Bear
The Return of the Bear Introduction There are occurrences in the business cycle when the consensus of my proprietary primary trend indicators find themselves within the confines of the bearish camp. Unfortunately,
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. November 29, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on November 29, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Positive Low Negative Low Transports
More informationWeekly Market Summary
Weekly Market Summary April 24, 2016 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: SPY made a new all-time high this week. The short and long term trend is higher. Despite a gain of 16% over the past 10 weeks,
More informationResistance remains in the SPX S/R zone, with a break out targeting 2170s.
Executive Summary With a flat week, it appears a one pager would be sufficient to summarize what has happened. However, we believe that would get us off too easy and we still would like to provide a full
More informationFund Managers Get Bullish
Fund Managers Get Bullish November 15, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: Global equities have risen 18% so far in 2017 and yet, until this month, fund managers have held significant amounts
More informationMonthly Market Risk Update: March 2019
Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2019 March 14, 2019 by Brad McMillan of Commonwealth Financial Network Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market
More informationMonthly Investment Compass Charting The Course Of The Markets
Monthly Investment Compass Charting The Course Of The Markets April 22 nd, 2016 Monthly Investment Compass Executive Summary: April 22 nd 2016 U.S. Stock Market: The most important takeaway from the latest
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. March 29, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on March 29, 2019 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Positive Low Negative High Transports
More informationPredicting Market Trends
Predicting Market Trends Scottsdale AAII December 2018 The Miller Report A newsletter that discusses market trends Three E-co-no-me-tri-cians Go Hunting Why did God create economists? To make weather forecasters
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. April 2, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on April 2, 2019 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Positive Low Positive Low Transports
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. November 16, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on November 16, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Negative Low Negative High Transports
More information3.14. The Link between Bonds and Stocks.
3.14. The Link between Bonds and Stocks. This chapter covers the important link between the bond and stock markets. It shows how the positive link between bond yields and stocks has existed over the last
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary Price finally reached our expect SPX2112-2120 and the negative divergences that started to creep in on the daily TIs finally also took their toll over the past 2 days. The weekly charts
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. January 24, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on January 24, 2019 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Neutral Low Positive Low Transports
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. January 25, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on January 25, 2019 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Positive Low Positive Low Transports
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary Based on this week s deduction of observable facts, we continue to favor the major a at SPX 1867, major b at SPX 2021 and major c down to SPX 1830-1850ies around October 9-12. How exactly
More informationRisk of Policy Error Clearly Rising Some Key Charts and Index Levels
Risk of Policy Error Clearly Rising Some Key Charts and Index Levels 4 th March 2018 What a difference a few weeks make. At the end of January, financial markets were melting up, commentators were salivating
More informationGundlach s Forecast for 2016
Gundlach s Forecast for 2016 January 19, 2016 by Robert Huebscher Jeffrey Gundlach is a prescient and accurate forecaster. Last week, as he does each January, he offered his market outlook. But unlike
More informationUnderstanding the KST and Asset Allocation
Understanding the KST and Asset Allocation 1 2 Understanding the KST and Asset Allocation Table of Contents Introduction... 5 Chapter 1: The KST System... 7 THE MARKET CYCLE MODEL... 11 Chapter 2: Business
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. February 5, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on February 5, 2019 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Positive Low Positive Low Transports
More informationINTERMEDIATE EDUCATION GUIDE
INTERMEDIATE EDUCATION GUIDE CONTENTS Key Chart Patterns That Every Trader Needs To Know Continution Patterns Reversal Patterns Statistical Indicators Support And Resistance Fibonacci Retracement Moving
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. January 11, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on January 11, 2019 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Positive Low Positive Low Transports
More informationMartin Pring s InterMarket Review
Martin Pring s InterMarket Review Publishing a synopsis of the world s Intermarket Analysis for over 20 years. 4830 Sweetmeadow Circle, Sarasota, FL 34238 February, 2012 941-926-9664 VOL. 28, NO. 9 Market
More informationA Cautionary Signal After Today's Strong Gain
A Cautionary Signal After Today's Strong Gain November 29, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: Waterfall events like the current one tend to most often reverberate into the weeks ahead. Indices
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. March 28, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on March 28, 2019 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Negative High Negative High Transports
More informationComprehensive Analysis on Australian Dollar
Comprehensive Analysis on Australian Dollar Summary on AUD: Bearish This report is an analysis on the AUD/USD currency pair. Australia s currency is called a commodity currency as its economy depends on
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. December 21, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on December 21, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Negative High Negative High Transports
More informationWeekly Market Summary
Weekly Market Summary April 12, 2015 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Sunday, April 12, 2015 Weekly Market Summary Summary: US markets once again look set-up to continue higher, as they have multiple times
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. January 22, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on January 22, 2019 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Neutral High Positive Low Transports
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. May 18, Daily Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on May 18, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Neutral Low Positive Low Transports Positive
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. October 16, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on October 16, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Neutral Low Negative High Transports
More informationMarket Insight: It s Nasty Out There Is This a Bear Market?
December 16, 2018 Market Insight: It s Nasty Out There Is This a Bear Market? Year-end commentaries are supposed to be filled with reflection, thankfulness, and inspiration for the New Year. In the grand
More informationThis article courtesy Caseyresearch.
This article courtesy Caseyresearch. Why Isn t This Incredibly Bearish Development Making the News? Editor s Note: This is one of the most important essays you ll read all year. In this special edition
More informationAugust 1 st, Divergence Warning
Dow Theory for the 21 st Century Schannep Timing Indicator COMPOSITE Indicator Dow Jones: 18,432.24 Divergence Warning S&P 500: 2,173.60 NYSE: 10,785.51 OVERVIEW: On July 11 th both the Dow and the S&P
More informationWeekly Market Summary
Weekly Market Summary June 6, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: US equities are up two months in a row and positive for the year. They are outperforming the rest of the world, despite ongoing
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. December 28, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on December 28, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Positive Low Negative High Transports
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. February 9, Daily Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on February 9, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Negative High Negative High Transports
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. December 6, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on December 6, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Negative High Positive Low Transports
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. January 30, 2018
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on January 30, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Negative High Negative Low Transports
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. November 23, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on November 23, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Negative High Negative High Transports
More informationFund Managers Remain Overweight Cash and Underweight US Equities
Fund Managers Remain Overweight Cash and Underweight US Equities June 14, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: Global equities have risen 5% in the past 3 months and nearly 20% in the past year,
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. January 29, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on January 29, 2019 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Neutral Low Positive Low Transports
More informationDAILY DAY TRADING PLAN
DAILY DAY TRADING PLAN Gatherplace will be used to place all of your trades. You will be using the 5 minute chart for the trade setup and the 1 minute chart for your entry, stop and trailing stop.you will
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. October 4, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on October 4, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Negative High Positive Low Transports
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. March 15, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on March 15, 2019 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Positive Low Negative High Transports
More informationTechnical Strategy. Q1 Dollar top as the basis for a sharp correction
2017 Chart 38. ) DXY with Advance/Decline Line (20 Key Dollar Pairs) Chart 39. ) US Dollar with Presidential Cycle Tactically, we have been bullish US dollar since the May 2016 bottom, which is the base
More informationHow To Read Charts Like A Pro Your guide to reading stock charts!
How To Read Charts Like A Pro Your guide to reading stock charts! Courtesy of Swing-Trade-Stocks.com You may distribute this book FREELY or use it as part of a commercial package as long as this page and
More informationCentral banks, the stock market, and gold
Central banks, the stock market, and gold When the pillars of the asset category that must be defended the stock market begin to crumble, the central banks always come in with policy guns a blazin. And
More information13 April US Equity Indices: the land of the bearish rising wedge. Walter Zimmermann United ICAP. US Equity Indices 13 Apr
- 1-13 April 2015 : the land of the bearish rising wedge Walter Zimmermann United ICAP The market commentary contained in this document represents the opinions of the author. Such opinions are subject
More informationThe Strategies Working Best in Today s E-Mini Market
The Strategies Working Best in Today s E-Mini Market Todd Mitchell Craig Hill Legal Disclaimer No claim is made by Trading Concepts, Inc. that the trading strategies shown here will result in profits and
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. October 23, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on October 23, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Negative High Negative High Transports
More informationGo Opposite to Hysteria
Go Opposite to Hysteria September 22, 2015 by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James... Look for hysteria to see if you shouldn t go the opposite way, but don t go the opposite way until you have fully examined
More information10-Year Treasury Yield Upshifts past 3% as Fear of Curve Inversion Grows
10-Year Treasury Yield Upshifts past 3% as Fear of Curve Inversion Grows May 3, 2018 by Charles Roth of Thornburg Investment Management Stocks slide on rising rates and yield curve inversion concerns,
More informationOn My Radar: High Probability of a Global Recession
On My Radar: High Probability of a Global Recession July 13, 2015 by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group There is a high probability of a global recession. Today, let s take a look at two
More informationProspects for the National and Local Economies: A Monetary Policymaker s View. I. Good afternoon. I m very pleased to be here with you today.
Presentation to Chapman University Annual Economic Forum Hyatt Regency, Huntington Beach, CA By Robert T. Parry, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco For delivery May 29, 2003,
More informationUsing Acceleration Bands, CCI & Williams %R
Price Headley s Simple Trading System for Stock, ETF & Option Traders Using Acceleration Bands, CCI & Williams %R How Technical Indicators Can Help You Find the Big Trends For any type of trader, correctly
More informationCanadian Technical Comment
October 15 2017 TSX: Shift to defense underway as near-term pullback looms Summary Recommendation: For long-term investment managers with cash on hand, we would wait for a short-term (2-4 week) corrective
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. December 4, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on December 4, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Neutral High Positive Low Transports
More informationLive to fight another day 5/22/2016
Live to fight another day 5/22/2016 I m taking a page out of the Sun Tzu playbook and am conceding the frequent position changes by the Federal Reserve are creating no-win situation for US stock market.
More informationMarket Maps. Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group. April RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group
Market Maps Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group All values in U.S. dollars and priced as of March 29, 2018, unless otherwise noted
More informationThe Second Lost Decade: an Update of the Secular Bear Market in Equities
Pring Turner Capital Group Registered Investment Advisor Secular Equity Bear Trend Update September 7, 2011 The Second Lost Decade: an Update of the Secular Bear Market in Equities In 2009, we published
More information10-Year Treasury Notes ($UST Price)
1 Weekly Inter-market Technical Report 10-Year Treasury Notes ($UST Price) Monthly The 10-Year Note has developed a clear rising parallel trend channel that reaches now to the $128 level with confluence
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. December 27, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on December 27, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Positive Low Negative High Transports
More informationMarket Maps. Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group. March RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group
Market Maps Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group All values in U.S. dollars and priced as of February 28, 2019, unless otherwise
More informationGundlach: I m Not Really Bullish on Bonds
Gundlach: I m Not Really Bullish on Bonds September 13, 2017 by Robert Huebscher Jeffrey Gundlach, one of the most respected bond managers in the world with over $100B in fixed-income assets under management,
More informationStocks Laboring to Move Higher
Stocks Laboring to Move Higher August 31, 2018 by Liz Ann Sonders, Jeffrey Kleintop & Brad Sorensen of Charles Schwab Key Points U.S. stocks indexes finally moved to new record highs but not exactly in
More informationUSE OF LAG CURVES TO STAY ON TH RIGHT SIDE OF A MARKET
USE OF LAG CURVES TO STAY ON TH RIGHT SIDE OF A MARKET Using my sixty plus years of experience of investing in stock markets, I have learned that predictions based on stock fundamentals or esoteric chart
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. November 20, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on November 20, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Negative High Negative High Transports
More informationAn End Has a Start: Keeping an Eye on Recession Indicators
Key Points An End Has a Start: Keeping an Eye on Recession Indicators October 8, 2018 by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab Second-longest expansion likely to make it to longest; but we re starting to see
More informationMacro Monthly UBS Asset Management June 2018
Macro Monthly UBS Asset Management June 18 Investing in a mature cycle Erin Browne Head of Asset Allocation Evan Brown, CFA Director, Asset Allocation Roland Czerniawski, CFA Associate Director, Asset
More informationPoint & Figure Basics
DORSEY WRIGHT Point & Figure Basics Technical Insights, Powerful Solutions Presented by Nasdaq Dorsey Wright Our Research Methodology Simple Economics Simply stated, Nasdaq Dorsey Wright focuses on the
More informationMacro Risk Advisors has provided the latest piece in the GVS newsletter series enclosed.
Dear Investor, The Global Volatility Summit ( GVS ) brings together volatility and tail hedge managers, institutional investors, thought-provoking speakers, and other industry experts to discuss the volatility
More informationIncreasing Risk of Medium-Term Correction Within Ongoing Bull Market
Increasing Risk of Medium-Term Correction Within Ongoing Bull Market This is a Markets Now Seminar March 27 th 2017 By David Fuller fullertreacymoney.com The Caledonian Club 9 Halkin Street London SW1Y
More informationIdentifying Market Bottoms: IBD Follow-Through Days
Issue 39 Wednesday, June 13, 2012 Identifying Market Bottoms: IBD Follow-Through Days Erik Skyba, CMT Senior Quantitative Analyst TSLabs@TradeStation.com Features Studies/Files Included: Focus: Technical
More informationFive Forecasters: Few Warning Signs
KEY TAKEAWAYS Five Forecasters: Few Warning Signs September 28, 2016 by Burt White of LPL Financial Our Five Forecasters are collectively sending mostly mid-cycle signals. The Leading Economic Index, yield
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. December 20, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on December 20, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Negative High Negative High Transports
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary Our standard sub division (SSD) Elliot Wave count for the S&P500 continues to track the market well, and we ll keep it as is until the market will tell us different. We continue to expect
More informationOctober Stock Indexes September 2009 Market Indexes September S&P 500 Index +3.6% +17.0% HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index +2.2% +11.
October 2009 Dear Investor, In September, stocks continued modestly higher, both in the US and globally. There have been a few notable exceptions to the gains, as stock indexes in China and Japan (among
More informationMarket Maps. Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group. December RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group
Market Maps Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group All values in U.S. dollars and priced as of market close, December 1, 2017, unless
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. February 12, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on February 12, 2019 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Positive Low Positive Low Transports
More informationHow Fund Managers Are Positioned
How Fund Managers Are Positioned March 23, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: Fund managers came into 2018 very bullish equities. Cash levels had fallen to the lowest level in 4 years. Allocations
More informationMarket Maps. Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group. January RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group
Market Maps Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group All values in U.S. dollars and priced as of December 31, 2018, unless otherwise
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. January 8, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on January 8, 2019 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Positive Low Positive Low Transports
More information