HARNESSING EXPLOSIVE MOVES USING GANN JEFF GREENBLATT MTA WEBINAR MARCH 30, 2011

Transcription

1 HARNESSING EXPLOSIVE MOVES USING GANN JEFF GREENBLATT MTA WEBINAR MARCH 30, 2011

2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Is Pattern recognition Traders lose money because they are emotional They get emotional because they don t understand the pattern Understand the pattern=greater opportunities Dick Arms: all fear and greed in pattern

3 COMMON FIBONACCI RETRACEMENTS Once the domain of elite traders Now popularized by media outlets Its good for them but.. Once the crowd learns it No longer cutting edge So that is only our foundation We go way beyond Fibonacci

4 What We Will Cover Today Pattern recognition Cycles and symmetry Price and time ratio squares Percentage change readings Median lines (pitchforks) Support and resistance Range squaring time Relevant current situations How to profit from this data (catching turns)

5 CYCLES ARE LEADING INDICATORS Time dimension missing X factor to most people Can be anticipated in advance Eliminates need for lagging indicators In my work 262 week pivot at bull top was anticipated 6 months in advance as MOST IMPORTANT PIVOT OF DECADE

6 DOW 262 WEEK BULL MARKET Pivot was anticipated 6 months in advance

7 COMMON FIBONACCI FORMATION A is.60 of the whole correction/first summer 2007 bounce (DOW TOP)

8 SAME SEQUENCE This time according to calendar days

9 TAKING IT ONE STEP BEYOND Calendar day cycles-90 days (RUT-Dow top) Time retracement (calendar days)up =.616% Clusters with Dow all time high at 262 weeks These calculations are the underlying structure Always dig one level deeper

10 MOST IMPORTANT RULE: WHEN PRICE AND TIME SQUARE THE TREND CHANGES DIRECTION

11 MOST IMPORTANT INTERNAL READINGS Price and time square to get a ratio Ratio dictates when we are close or at a turn Cluster from various pivots Percentage change readings important part of equation

12 NUMBERS ARE LANGUAGE OF MARKETS Fibonacci 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987 etc. Lucas 7, 11, 18, 29, 47, 76, 123, 199, 322, 521, 843 etc. Golden spiral, sq roots.618, 1.618, 2.618, 4.23, 6.84,.382,.786, 1.12, 1.27, 2.05,.236 Important Gann 45, 90, 180, 270, 360

13 MORE IMPORTANT NUMBERS Geometric/Gann , 67.5, 135, Sacred Geometry 1.414, 2.236, 1.90, , 3.14 Multiples of , 432, 576, 720 etc. Astronomic 88, 182, 188, 241, 365, 414, 615, 687

14 WHAT TO DO WITH THESE NUMBERS Divide number of points into number of bars Ratio is the squaring of price and time Most pivots have some combination of these ratios Feel free to move decimal point Percentage change low to high or high to low Important application of Fibonacci # s

15 STUDY OF BEAR BOTTOM Best percentage change readings I ve ever seen Russell was Gold standard Was only part of the story Cycles and symmetry goes back 21 years Importance to understand strength of the bottom pivot

16 KEY DAILY READINGS Cluster of price and time=1.23 sq and 60%

17 PERCENTAGE % AT BOTTOM Perfect symmetry from 3 pivots

18 DOW 87 CRASH RANGE Range is 1108 points

19 NDX BOTTOM SQUARES DOW RANGE 1108 weeks; take note of parallels

20 INTRADAY TRADING Price and time squares Best situations cluster with support/resistance Support/resistance could be retracement Always be aware of larger daily cycles Percentage change less important on intraday charting

21 MOST BASIC SQUARE Numbers of bars ratio to points (5 min) 1-1 relationships are powerful setups

22 GANN GEOMETRIC ON 15 MIN 10 pts/55.5 bars completes.180 square

23 MORE NUMBERS=MORE OPPORTUNITIES I ve always taught to look for Fibonacci/Lucas cycle symmetries When combining price/time we open up understanding to greater possibilities/profit opportunities with almost ANY SET OF NUMBERS Fibonacci/Lucas numbers are part of a greater overall ratio

24 TESTS OF FIBONACCI RETRACEMENTS How do you trust a retracement? Give it a great square reading

25 NEXT SEQUENCE Test of support (blue line).260 reading

26 INTRADAY EXTENSION extension last leg down/confirms with.359 reading

27 PRICE POINT MAGNETS Action attracted to 610/618 price points

28 KEY PRICE/TIME SQUARE 360 bars off pts per hour

29 KEY POINTS TO REMEMBER These readings are the underlying structure of all markets They are leading indicators as we no longer need RSI/Stochastic/MACD, etc. We always wait for change of direction (no front running) 3 components before trading (support/resistance + square reading) And candlestick formation

30 BE CREATIVE Nat Gas turned at.429 pts per day in 429cd

31 THE CALCULATIONS Based on continuation chart at the time High was /low at There was 305 td/429cd = /305 =.0429 Bottom was on 429 th calendar day Don t forget 61 weeks

32 NEXT TRADING SEQUENCE Topped on a.0619 daily square

33 MAJOR 2010 SUGAR TURN Nothing rare about 318 days up

34 UNLESS ITS UP 317 WEEKS Cluster of 318 days/317 weeks caused turn

35 XAU 608TD

36 GOLD CASH TO 99 BOTTOM July/Aug double bottom

37 TEXTBOOK SQUARE POT topped at in 121 days

38 2009 BOTTOM IN CORN Price 302 in 302 trading days/262 from secondary pivot/383pts=1.46sq

39 CORN PRICE/TIME SQUARE Price point 302 in 302 days=rally

40 GREAT DEPRESSION PRICE/TIME SQUARE and 89% drop makes this method timeless

41 INITIAL LEG OFF 80 SILVER TOP 78.55% (Month continuation)

42 SAME CASE STUDY 78.5/90%/127wks/35.89sq

43 LARGER DEGREE VIEW Led to decade long low to early 90s

44 SUMMARY Perfect price and time (Corn, Nat Gas and POT) rare but very important Every leg has some combination of price and time Markets spiral in all degrees of trend We take snapshots of these points in time and look for opportunity We use underlying structure to identify patterns

45 MEDIAN LINES Help keep us grounded Give us a good visual on the trend Act as magnets to the price action When channel lines hit sentiment also changes

46 NOT VERY CLEAR 5 min Dow Emini

47 IS THIS MORE CLEAR? Median lines give us GPS to pattern

48 WHY DID DOLLAR TOP LAST AT BIG MID LINE YEAR?

49 BKX BOTTOM TARGET Parallel warning lines excellent tool

50 FLASH CRASH THURSDAY NDX bottomed out at 2 pitchfork levels lower

51 PARALLELS ON BOTH ENDS Caught oil top and bottom both ends

52 CONFLUENCE READINGS/PITCHFORKS Readings tell us if lines will validate

53 WHEN CHANNEL AND READING HIT HEADLINE MATERIALIZED

54 SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE Polarity where support becomes resistance Resistance becomes support Important supply and demand points The A wave tendency

55 FORMER SUPPORT BECOMES RESISTANCE

56 POLARITY CONTINUATION

57 A WAVE POLARITY

58 SMALLER A WAVE

59 ADD PITCHFORK TO A WAVE

60 GARDNER STUDY Studied musical savants (1973) Later found young children with access to elite training attained same levels as musical prodigies (1983) Conclusion: Innate gifts only potential for achievement

61 CHILD PRODIGIES Never attain excellence as adults Studies according to Barlow (1952) Feldman (1986) and Scheinfeld (1939) Studies show most exceptional adult performers got instruction early and often

62 REQUIREMENTS Passion/motivation Time, equipment and training Access to money Yours or acquired funds Don t give up

63 WHY STUDY UNDERLYING STRUCTURE? Many traders have syndrome of win a few lose a few Only way to win is understand why you win Develop conviction with higher quality setups Put yourself in a position to let winners run

64 GANN S MOST IMPORTANT History repeats DISCOVERY Past best predictor of future Squaring price/range and time Equal number of points balances equal number of periods Adapt universal principle to present day applications

65 Modern Era Squares Gann didn t have to deal with multiple indices Modern markets more complex We must combine various indices to make this work All indices related to each other in some fashion

66 APPLICATIONS Catch important turning points in key indices Buy and sell points in stocks Leverage information in important sectors Use in any market Knowledge in one area allows us to anticipate moves in related markets

67 DOW 87 CRASH RANGE Range is 1108 points

68 BKX SYMMETRY

69 AMGN SETUP 6.55 range at 65 trading days

70 AMGN/BTK CONNECTION AMGN Led whole sector up in Dec

71 RIMM CASE STUDY Found trading low at 55 days

72 RIMM NEXT SEQUENCE High at at 64 days

73 SYMMETRY ENDS CORRECTION Drop ends at 6.46 after 64 sequence

74 DUSA PENNY STOCK.42 correction in 41 days

75 SPECULATION GANN WINNER Everyone wants a bio spec winner

76 CELGENE CASE STUDY in 61.5 days off high/ low at 64days (creative variation of concept)

77 BIG DOW AUTUMN RALLY

78 SPX LONG TERM CHANNEL

79 NIKKEI 233 CONDITION

80 TRAINING PROGRAM Cover materials from today in greater detail (3 major components) One on one attention from me correspondence go at your own pace Includes Gann square of 9 and Normally $747, 1 week special at $697

81 ULTIMATE GUIDE TO PATTERN RECOGNITION ROUGH CUT We only had time for several chapters Adapted from the training program For the individual who doesn t want personal attention Covers Andrews, Gann ratio, Gann calendar, range/price square, sq of 9, support/resistance, trading strategies and psychology

82 MORE INFORMATION