Knowing When to Buy or Sell a Stock
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- Byron Walton
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1 Knowing When to Buy or Sell a Stock Overview Review & Market direction Driving forces of market change Support & Resistance Basic Charting Review & Market Direction How many directions can a stock s price move? Down Sideways Up PAGE 1
2 Down Sideways Up Bulls vs Bears Bulls = Think UP Bears = Think DOWN Sideways = Bulls and bears are in balance Long vs Short Two types of trades with stock: Long = Buy a stock (think long term) Think it s going up (bullish) Short = Sell a stock (think short term) Think it s going down (bearish) Your Goal: Pick a Direction Up (Bullish) Down (Bearish) PAGE 2
3 Driving Forces of Market Price Change What is a Share of Stock? A share of ownership in a company Can be public or private Holds monetary value (equity) As the price goes up we can profit What causes the price to change? Fundamental factors? Financial data Overall economy Sector analysis Leadership/management In theory: A stock s price should always return to it s real value. Fundamental Weakness Which formula determines the real value of a stock? It takes a lot of time Requires a lot of homework Each sector behaves differently Only 4 core fundamental announcements a year PAGE 3
4 Q: So what REALLY drives the price of a stock? A: SPECULATION Q: What is the present Value of a stock? A: Present value = What someone is willing to pay What are the REAL factors to price? What buyers and sellers think about a stock (sentiment) Who are the buyers & sellers? People People are predictable People are driven by emotion Two Emotions Fear & Optimism Stocks are predictable because people are predictable PAGE 4
5 Technical Analysis Technical Definition: The study of the price action of the market as it is reflected in the chart. In reality: The study of human emotion in the stock market as it is reflected in the price of the stock. Benefits of Technical Analysis Studies the most fundamental factor We get new data every minute Allows for quick analysis We do not have to study fundamentals Most efficient way to predict prices Support & Resistance Support: The price point where a stock finds more buying pressure than selling pressure, and the buying pressure drive drives the price higher (Bullish) Resistance: The price point where a stock finds more selling pressure than buying pressure, and the selling pressure drive drives the price lower (Bearish) PAGE 5
6 Channel A stock moving sideways between support & resistance in a predictable repeating pattern Upward Channel A stock moving sideways between support & resistance in a predictable repeating pattern while making higher highs and higher lows Downward Channel A stock moving sideways between support & resistance in a predictable repeating pattern while making lower highs and lower lows Very basic retirement plan Learn to draw support & resistance Find stocks trading between support & resistance support resistance PAGE 6
7 Downward Channel Upward Channel Sideways & Upward Channels PAGE 7
8 Basic Charting What is a price chart? The plotting of the historical pricing of a stock for the purpose of analyzing market behavior The primary tool of the technical trader Basic Chart Review Three types of charts: Line Chart Bar Chart Candlestick Chart How to draw the right lines Start with a line chart Draw the highest & Lowest point Connect turning points 2 points make a line 3 points make a trend The more touches the better Check candlesticks for confirmation Notes on Line Drawing Stocks can touch line from either top or bottom Start with at least 2-3 years on your chart Daily chart is the ideal place to start drawing PAGE 8
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