RESEARCH at 29 September, 2017

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1 RESEARCH at 29 September, 2017 MARKET OUTLOOK AS AT 29 SEPTEMBER 2017 SUMMARY 1. Ghana s GDP records 9% growth YoY Q2, Performance of Commodities Market 2. Market Performance on the Ghana Stock Exchange. 4. Performance of Mutual Funds in Ghana PLEASE NOTE: In this report, Figures highlighted Green mean an increase in rate, amount, etc. Figures highlighted Red mean a reduction in rate, amount, etc. GHANA GDP GROWS TO 9.0%YEAR-ON-YEAR IN Q SOURCE: Trading Economics / Ghana Statistical Service / ICPL GHANA GDP YEAR ON YEAR DEFINITION & FORMULA GDP is simply the total value of goods and services produced by a country over a period of time. A country s GDP can be calculated by using the following formula: GDP = C + G + I + NX. Where C is equal to all private consumption, or consumer spending, in a nation's economy, G is the sum of government spending, I is the sum of all the country's investment, including businesses capital expenditures and NX is the nation's total net exports, calculated as total exports minus total imports (NX = Exports - Imports). GHANA Q2, 2017 AND YOY GROWTH GDP data released by the Ghana Statistical Services indicates that Ghana's GDP grew by 9.0% year-on-year (YOY) in the second quarter of 2017 as compared with 1.1% growth year-on-year in the second quarter of The higher economic growth recorded, according to the Ghana Statistical Service was largely due to an increase in oil production, which resulted in industry posting a very strong growth of 19.3% year on year. The Services and Agriculture sectors also grew by 5.6% year-on-year and 3.4% year-on-year respectively. The Oil GDP estimate at current prices for the 2nd quarter of 2017 was GHS 45,358.5 million compared to GHS 38,061.5 million in the 2nd quarter of The Non-oil GDP estimate at current prices for the 2nd quarter of 2017 was GHS 43,364.1 million compared to GHS 37,641.6 million in the 2nd quarter of Historically, GDP Annual Growth Rate in Ghana averaged 6.84% from 2000 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 25% in the first quarter of 2012 and a record low of -3.80% in the first quarter of Again, historically, Ghana s GDP (Amount) recorded an all-time-low of 1.22 Billion USD in July 2007 and an all-time-high of USD Billion in March For year-end 2016, Ghana was ranked 11 th in Africa and 90 th in the world with GDP (amount) of USD 43 Billion. AFRICA RANKINGS (HIGHLIGHTS) Growth Rate: In Africa, Ghana s YOY GDP of 9% in the second quarter of 2017 is the highest on the continent followed by Ivory Cost recording 7.9% and Ethopia recording 7.6%. GDP Amount: In Africa, Nigeria is ranked first with USD 405 billion. This was followed by Egypt, South Africa in second and third places. Kenya was 9 th with USD 71 billion. Neighboring countries Cote d ivoire and Togo were ranked 13 th and 43 rd respectively. The least performers in Africa and in the world were Seychelles Island with USD 1 billion and Sao Tome with USD 0.35 billion. WORLD RANKINGS (HIGHLIGHTS) Growth Rate: China, USA and UK recorded a YOY GDP of 6.9%, 2.2% and 1.5% in second quarter of 2017 respectively. GDP Amount: For the rest of the world, USA is ranked the highest in terms of GDP with amount of USD 1.8 trillion. This is followed by the Euro area with USD 1.2 trillion, then China with 1.1 trillion. Japan, Germany, UK, France, India Brazil and Canada, in that order are ranked among the first 10 countries with high GDP figures. It must be noted that GDP per capita seeks to show the value of all goods and services produced in the year divided by the population of that year. This measure provides a different picture from absolute GDP figures and growth rates. The picture looks even more interesting when the analysis is extended to include the living standards of citizens in a particular country. ICPL Research_ Market Outlook_29 September 2017 Page 1 of 6

2 GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE (MARKET PERFORMANCE) THIS WEEK IN FOCUS Day Date Volume Value GH GSE Composite Index (GSE-CI) Market Capitalizatio n GH million MONDAY 24-Sep , , , , TUESDAY 25-Sep , ,664, , , SOURCE: Ghana Stock Exchange Gainers & Losers EQUITY PRICE (GHS) % Change EGH % GOIL % GCB % FML % WEDNESDAY 26-Sep-17 55, , , , THURSDAY 27-Sep , , , , FRIDAY 28-Sep-17 1,727, ,781, , , MARKET INDICES TREND Performance YTD (37.71%) MARKET SUMMARY SOURCE: Doobia.com 2, At the close of the week, the Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index (GSECI) made a gain, as the benchmark index increased by 1.83% to close at 2, The performance resulted from stocks such as EGH, GCB, CAL, and GOIL which moved up the GSE-CI to a current YTD of 37.71% from 35.67% (last week Friday). The Ghana Stock Market Composite Index (GSE-CI) reached an all-time high of in February 2014 and a record low of in December of 2011 There was a marginal increase in market capitalization by 0.05% to GHS 58, million from GHS 58, million. Market Activity Top 5 Volumes & Values Traded Stocks Price (GHS) Vol. Traded Stocks Price (GHS) Val. Traded CAL ,061,400 GCB ,539,050 GCB ,400 CAL ,061,400 GOIL ,000 FML ,820 FML ,900 GOIL ,920 TOTAL ,000 TOTAL ,520 Volume traded on Friday 29 September 2017 was 1,727,376 valued at GHS 3,781,584. Activity levels increased on the market with volumes traded, as CAL accounted for 61% of the total volume traded, followed by GCB also accounting for 37% of total volume traded for the day. Value traded on Friday 29th September 2017 was GHS 3,781,584. Activity levels increased on the market with value traded, as GCB accounted for 67% of the total value traded, followed by CAL also accounting for 28% of total value traded for the day. There were 2 Gainers & 2 Losers at the end of the day. Performance across all indices was positive. The financial indices, GSE-CI and GSE-FI increased by 1.83% and 2.92% respectively. ICPL Research_ Market Outlook_29 September 2017 Page 2 of 6

3 T-Bill Rates (Mon 25 September, 2017 To Fri 29 September, 2017) EXCHANGE RATE (Fri 29 September, 2017) SOURCE: Bank of Ghana Currency Pairs Code Buy Sell Average Day %Ch PERIOD 25/9/ /9/2017 Interest Rate (This week) Interest Rate (Last week) Weekly Ch 91-Day % Day % Year % Year Fixed Note % Day T-Bill has seen a weekly increase of Day T-Bill has seen a weekly decrease of Year T-Bill & 2- Year T- Bill remains the same. The USDGHS remained appreciated by 0.17% on Friday September 29, 2017 to from in the previous trading session. Historically, the Ghanaian Cedi reached an all-time high of 4.73 in March of 2017 and a record low of 0.90 in July of (Source: Trading Economics) SOURCE: Bank of Ghana U. S. Dollar USDGHS % Pound GBPGHS % Sterling Euro EURGHS % Canadian CADGHS Dollar % CFA Franc GHSXOF (BCEAO) % Chinese CNYGHS Renminbi % NAIRA GHSNGN % South ZARGHS % African Rand INFLATION SOURCE: Trading Economics PREVIOUS : Jul, % CURRENT : Aug, % All-Time High: Mar, % All-Time Low: May, % Medium Term Target ( 8 +/- 2)% MONETARY POLICY RATE (MPR) SOURCE: Bank of Ghana / Trading Economics PREVIOUS : May, % CURRENT : June, % All-Time High: March, % All-Time Low: Dec, % COMMODITY PRICES (Fri, 29th September, 2017) SOURCE: Trading Economics COMMODITIES CURRENT PRICE(USD) PREVIOUS PRICE (USD) WEEKLY CH Crude Oil (BBL) $51.42 $ % Gold (oz) $1, $1, % Cocoa (MT) $2, $1, % Rice (MT) $11.97 $ % Coffee (MT) $ $ % Sugar (T) $14.09 $ % Prices of Crude Oil and Cocoa increased on the international market. Prices of Gold, Rice, Coffee and Sugar, however, decreased on the international market. ICPL Research_ Market Outlook_29 September 2017 Page 3 of 6

4 INVESTMENT RATES (Amts of 5,000 to 50,000) Ghana SOURCE: Sample institutions & other sources The sample investment rates provided below are as quoted by various institutions in each category. Actual rates, however, vary per transaction based on negotiations, among other factors. Generally interest rates have been on the decline. COMPANIES AMOUNT 91-Day 182-Day 365-Day Ideal Capital Partners 5,000-50, % 26.00% 26.50% Databank Asset Mgt Services 50, % 13.08% 15.00% FirstBanc Financial Services 5,000-50, % 18.00% 18.50% Unisecurities 5,000-50, % 22.00% 24.00% Sirius Capital 5,000-50, % 14.00% 15.00% Biege Capital 5,000-50, % 21.50% 23.50% All-Time Capital 5,000-50, % 24.00% 25.00% IFS CAPITAL 5,000-50, % 21-22% 22-24% SEM CAPITAL 5,000-50, % 21.00% 22.00% Goldcoast Securities 5,000-50, % 25.00% 26.00% NDK Asset management Ltd 5,000-50, % 24.00% 25.00% HFC Investment 20,000 & Above 11.50% 12.50% 13.50% CDH Securities Ltd 5,000-50, % 26.00% 24.00% Mclottey Capital 5,000-50, % 24.50% 25.00% SGL Royal Kapita 5,000-50, % 20.00% 22.00% Apex Capital Pertners 5,000-50, % 22.00% 23.00% Brooks Asset Management 5,000-50, % 18.50% 20.50% EDC Investment 5,000-50, % 11.00% 21.00% Cal Asset Management 5,000-50, % 17.00% 18.00% SAS Investment 6,000 & Above 26.50% 26.50% 26.50% The general public is still pushing for a reduction in lending rates by the commercial banks, consistent with the reduction in the benchmark MPR (21%). The Governor of Bank of Ghana, Dr Ernest Addison on 24 th July 2017, assured the general public that lending rates will soon follow in the line with the benchmark (MPR). Some analysts are of the view that a reduction of rates on the market, consistent with the YTD reduction in the benchmark monetary policy rate (MPR) by 3% to 21% on 24 July, 2017, will take some time due to the high incidence of non-performing loans (NPL), among others. Ideal Capital Partners (ICPL), All-Time Capital and Beige SAS still recorded relatively high rate for the week under review, whiles EDC and CAL recorded relatively lower rates with the aim of discouraging investment in fixed deposit to focus on their mutual funds. ICPL Research_ Market Outlook_29 September 2017 Page 4 of 6

5 MUTUAL FUNDS IN GHANA MONEY MARKET (Annualized Yield) SOURCE: Doobia.com Fund Fund Manager Bid Price Offer Price ANNU. YIELD Last Updated EDC FIXED INCOME EDC Investments Limited % 26-Sep-2017 FIRSTFUND FirstBanC Financial Services Ltd % 19-Sep-2017 GALAXY MFUND Galaxy Capital Ltd % 24-Sep-2017 HFC UNIT HFC Investment Services Limited % 28-Sep-2017 Mfund Databank Asset Mgmt Services Ltd % 28-Sep-2017 Omega Income Omega Capital Limited % 28-Sep-2017 SEM MoneyPlus SEM Capital Management Limited % 25-Sep-2017 TTL IncomeHaven TTL Capital Limited % 19-Sep-2017 IDEAL SIKA FUND IDEAL CAPITAL PARTNERS % 29-Sep-2017 MONEY MARKET ( Year To Date) All-Time Bond All-Time Capital Limited % 10-Aug-2017 EdiFund T1 Databank Asset Management Servi % 28-Sep-2017 EdiFund T2 Databank Asset Management Servi % 28-Sep-2017 Gold Money Gold Coast Fund Management % 29-Sep-2017 SEM Income SEM Capital Management Limited % 25-Sep-2017 Sirius Opportunity Sirius Capital Limited % 07-Sep-2017 STANLIB Cash STANLIB Ghana Ltd % 26-Sep-2017 STANLIB Income STANLIB Ghana Ltd % 26-Sep-2017 IDEAL SIKA FUND Ideal Capital Partners % 29-Sep-2017 Firstfund recorded the highest yield of 31.14% for the week under review followed by TTL Income Haven with a yield of 30.37% Ideal SikaFund recorded the lowest yield of 18.19% for this week. Ideal Sikafund current annualized yield of 18.19%, is above inflation of 12.3% (August) and the benchmark 91-Day T-bills rate of 13.24% as at 29 September Ideal Sika Fund s annualized performance of 18.19% compares with Omega Income s performance of 19.14% and MFunds performance of 20.53%. We estimate an average Annualized Yield of 23.6%, per list in table above. Also, Ideal Sika Fund s YTD performance of 10.65% is the lowest as shown in the table above. Ideal Sika Fund was launched on 9 March, We estimate an average YTD performance of 15% per the list in table above. ETHICAL FUND ARK Fund Databank Asset Mgt Services Ltd % 20-Sep-2017 There is only one ethical fund in the Industry REAL ESTATE FUND HFC Reit HFC Investment Services Ltd % 18-Sep-2017 There is only one real estate fund in the Industry SOURCE: doobia.com ICPL Research_ Market Outlook_29 September 2017 SOURCE: Doobia.com Page & Some 5 of Company 6 websites

6 EQUITY FUND Anidaso Fund New Generation Investment Servic % 28-Sep-2017 Dalex Vision Dalex Capital Management Limited % 25-Sep-2017 EPAcK Databank Asset Management Servi % 28-Sep-2017 Gold Fund Gold Coast Fund Management % 29-Sep-2017 HeritageFund FirstBanC Financial Services Ltd % 19-Sep-2017 HFC Equity HFC Investment Services Limited % 28-Sep-2017 NTHC Horizon NTHC Limited % 18-Jul-2017 Omega Equity Omega Capital Limited % 28-Sep-2017 SAS Fortune SAS Investment Management Limit % 28-Sep-2017 SEM ALL- AFRICA SEM Capital Management Limited % 25-Sep-2017 SAS Fortune recorded the highest yield of 35.09% for the week under review followed by SEM ALL- AFRICA with a yield of 34.43% Dalex Vision recorded the lowest yield of 19.93% for this week. BALANCED FUND Fund Fund Manager Bid Price Offer Price YTD Last Updated BFUND Databank Asset Management Servi % 28-Sep-2017 CCMF Black Star Advisors % 20-Jul-2017 CDH Balanced CDH Asset Management Ltd % 27-Sep-2017 CM Fund SDC Capital Limited % 25-Sep-2017 EDC BALANCED EDC Investments Limited % 26-Sep-2017 GalaxyBfund Galaxy Capital Ltd % 24-Sep-2017 HFC F Plan HFC Investment Services Limited % 28-Sep-2017 Kiddifund EDC Investments Limited % 26-Sep-2017 McTrust McOttley Capital Limited % 26-Sep-2017 Nordea Income Nordea Capital Limited % 25-Sep-2017 GalaxyBfund recorded the highest yield of 28.08% for the week followed by Bfund with 27.74% for the week under review. CCMF recorded the lowest yield of 11.89% for this week. Prepared by: SOURCE: SEC QUARTERLY REPORT Peter Nii Odoi Charway Head, Research & Strategy peter@idealcapitalpartnersgh.com Eugene Amponsah-Asiamah Research Officer eugene@idealcapitalpartnersgh.com ICPL Research_ Market Outlook_29 September 2017 Page 6 of 6