12/7/2017 WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW RESEARCH DEPARTMENT

Transcription

1 12/7/20 WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW RESEARCH DEPARTMENT

2 AXE CAPITAL ADVISORS - INTERNAL MARKET UPDATE December 7, THE MARKETS 1.1 CAPITAL MARKET GSE ALL-SHARE INDEX GSE Statistics As At 30/11/ ( OPEN) Market Capitalization (GH million) Source: GSE 07/12/ (CLOSE) Week Change (%) Year to date change (%) GSE - CI 2, , (0.519%) 48.51% GSE - FI 2, , (0.722%) 43.15% Total Volume Trade (shares) 5,019,353 2,297,271 (54.232%) - Total Value Traded ( GH ) 13,766, ,664, (80.647%) - 58, , (0.485%) - Commented [NB1]: The week-on-week performance measure is done on a Thursday-on-Thursday basis. Commented [NB2]: The First week of December saw the GSE- CI drop by 0.519%. The GSE-FI followed suit to end the week with a loss of 0.722%. Liquidity also dropped from the previous week by %, this was partly due to the loss of a trading day (1 st December, 20) Market Cap recorded a 0.485% drop from the final week of November. As at Thursday 07th December 20, investors who from the beginning of the year invested solely according to the market would have experienced a gain of 48.51% in their holdings. The financial services industry in Ghana according to the GSE-FSI has also witnessed a 43.15% rise since year inception. PRICE GAINERS Equity 30/11/ Previous Closing Price GH 07/12/ Closing Price GH Price Change (%) CAL % BOPP % GCB % TOTAL % Commented [NB3]: 4 stocks saw price increases per the week under review. The stock of CAL led the gainers by an increase in share price of 4.76%, followed in a huge gap by BOPP. Page 1 of 13

3 AXE CAPITAL ADVISORS - INTERNAL MARKET UPDATE December 7, 20 PRICE LOSERS Equity 30/11/ Previous Closing Price GH 7/12/ Closing Price GH Price Change (%) Commented [NB4]: Also the week under review closed with three stocks losing on their prices. Access Bank had the greatest loss per week under review of 15.00%. ACCESS % ETI % GOIL % BEST PERFORMERS (TOP 5) BASED ON YEAR-TO-DATE CHANGE STOCK PRICE-YEAR OPEN CURRENT PRICE YEAR-TO- DATE CHANGE (%) BOPP % GOIL % SCB % HFC % TOTAL % Commented [NB5]: All these YTD changes are currently above the GSE-CI which now stands at 48.51% Commented [NB6]: The best performers for the Final week of November maintained their respective positions in the First week of December as follows: 1.BOPP: Oil 2.GOIL: Petroleum 3.SCB: Financial Services 4.HFC: Financial Services 5.TOTAL: Petroleum WORST PERFORMERS (WORST 6) BASED ON YEAR-TO-DATE CHANGE STOCK PRICE-YEAR OPEN CURRENT PRICE YEAR-TO- DATE CHANGE (%) Commented [NB7]: The composition of the worst performers on the market are as follows (counting from the worse): MLC % TLW % SIC % ACCESS % 1. MLC: Manufacturing 2.TLW: Oil 3.SIC: Financial Services 4.ACCESS: Banking and Finance 5.AYRTN: Pharmaceuticals 6.SAMBA: Food Processing AYRTN % SAMBA % Page 2 of 13

4 AXE CAPITAL ADVISORS - INTERNAL MARKET UPDATE December 7, 20 MOST LIQUID (TOP 6) BASED ON TOTAL VOLUME TRADED FOR THE WEEK Commented [NB8]: These 6 shares accounted for close to 100% of the total shares traded within the week. STOCK TOTAL SHARES TRADED % OF TOTAL SHARES TRADED ON THE MARKET WEEKLY % CHANGE IN SHARE PRICE CHANGE IN VALUE OF SHARES TRADED (GHC) Interest in CAL seems to have soared over the week being in a considerable lead as compared to the other stocks with regards to liquidity. CAL with total shares traded of 1,900,600 was the most liquid stock over the week. CAL was ahead of ETI, which was the immediate following stock, by a pace of 1,687,500 shares traded. CAL 1,900, % ETI 213, % FML 12, % , GOIL 26, % , HFC 105, % SIC 14, % Page 3 of 13

5 AXE CAPITAL ADVISORS - INTERNAL MARKET UPDATE December 7, 20 GSE OVERVIEW Share Code Year Opening Price (GH ) Year High (GH ) Year Low (GH ) Current Price - 07/12/20 VWAP (GH ) YTD CHANGE % Total Shares Issued (Open) Total Shares Issued (Closed) Market Cap 3/1/20 Current Market Cap 07/12/20 Market Cap ABG % % Commented [NB9]: This Overview gives a brief summary of the market activity on the GSE, looking at price highs and lows, YTD changes, and Market Cap changes as well. ACI % % ADB % , % AGA % , , % ALW % % AYRTN % % BOPP % % CAL % % CLYD % % CMLT % % CPC % 2, , % EBG % , , % EGL % % ETI % 24, , , , % FML % , , % GCB % , % GGBL % % GOIL % , % GSR % % GWEB % % HFC % % MAC % % MLC % % PKL % % PBC % % PZC % % SCB % , , % SIC % % SPL % % SOGEGH % % SWL % % TBL % % TOTAL % % TRANSOL % % TLW % 1, , , , % UNIL % % Page 4 of 13

6 Interest Rate AXE CAPITAL ADVISORS - INTERNAL MARKET UPDATE December 7, MONEY MARKET TREASURY BILL RATES Treasury Security Monday 27 th Nov. To Monday 11 th Nov. To Change (%) Friday 01 st December, 20 Friday 15 th December, 20 Period Interest rates (%) Interest rates (%) Interest rates (%) 91 - day % % day % % Yr Note % - Source: Bank of Ghana and ACA Research MONDAY 11TH DEC TO FRIDAY 15TH DECEMBER, 20 INTEREST RATES (%) Commented [NB10]: The benchmark 91-day fell by 2.6bps to % from %, the 182-day bill also increased to % this week from %. The general business atmosphere remains optimistic amidst the further drop in the Policy rate to 20.0%; inflation for September dropped by 1bp to 12.2 from 12.3% in August, the general economic perception remain positive. The shape of the yield curve has gradually shifted from the inverted curve to that of a steep curve indicating a bright future for the Ghanaian economy. Generally, a steep yield curve develops after a recession, in the recovery stage, when demand for money picks up, and is traditionally thought to signal an improving economy. What happens is that investors are afraid that they could be locking in low returns as rates increase. Accordingly, they move into longerterm maturities, demanding higher returns, and causing the yield curve to steepen % % % % % % % % % % %.5000% % % 91 - d ay d ay 2- Y ear No te Duration AXE Investment Schemes Fund Bid Price(GH ) Offer Price(GH ) YTD (%) Axe Unit Trust N/A N/A N/A Source: Axe Capital Advisors Limited Page 5 of 13

7 AXE CAPITAL ADVISORS - INTERNAL MARKET UPDATE December 7, THE CURRENCY MARKET SOME CURRENCIES AGAINST THE GHANA CEDI (30/11/20) Currency Mid Rate (GH ) 23/11/ 30/11/ WEEKLY CHANGE (%) YEAR TO DATE CHANGE (%) Commented [NB11]: The Final week of November records the Cedi s persistent effort against the dollar, gaining some basis points over the same during the week. With regards to the year-to-date change for the Cedi, it is currently depreciating against the US Dollar by 4.86%. Dollar % 4.86% Pound % 15.67% Euro % 20.19% Yen (0.38%) 10.81% Swiss Franc % Source: Bank of Ghana and ACA Research Page 6 of 13

8 AXE CAPITAL ADVISORS - INTERNAL MARKET UPDATE December 7, ECONOMIC INDICATORS Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising and, consequently, the purchasing power of currency is falling. Central banks attempt to limit inflation, and avoid deflation (general decline in prices), in order to keep the economy running smoothly. Month INFLATION RATE Sep- 16 Oct- 16 Nov - 16 Dec- 16 Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May - Jun- July- Aug- Sept - Inflation (y-o-y %) Source: Ghana Statistical Service & Trading Economics Commented [NB12]: Inflation slowed down to 12.2% for the month of September, from 12.3% in August. This represents a 0.1 percent drop from August. The inflation rate measures the change over time in the general price level of goods and services that consumers purchase. The Deputy Government Statistician, Mr. Amuzu explained that; The main price drivers for the non-food inflation rate were transport (21.9%), recreation and culture (18.7%), furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance (.6%), clothing and footwear (16.2%), and miscellaneous goods and services (15.4%) And the price driver for the food inflation rate was fish and sea food (16.1%). On the regional level, Mr. Amuzu noted that, seven regions (Upper West, Greater Accra, Brong Ahafo, Western, Ashanti, Eastern and Central) recorded inflation rate higher than the national average of 12.2%. Meanwhile, Upper West Region recorded the highest year-on-year inflation rate of 13.1%, followed by Greater Accra Region (12.8%), while the Volta Region recorded the lowest year-on-year inflation (10.5%) in September, 20. Page 7 of 13

9 AXE CAPITAL ADVISORS - INTERNAL MARKET UPDATE December 7, 20 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change over time in the general price level of goods and services that households acquire for the purpose of consumption, with reference to the price level in 2012, the base year, which has an index of 100. CPI Month Sep- 16 Oct- 16 Nov- 16 Dec - 16 Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- July- Aug- Sept- Inflation CPI Source: Ghana Statistical Service & Trading Economics Commented [NB13]: Consumer Price Index CPI in Ghana decreased to Index Points in August from Index Points in July of 20. Consumer Price Index CPI in Ghana averaged Index Points from 1997 until 20, reaching an all-time high of Index Points in July of 20 and a record low of 9.81 Index Points in October of Page 8 of 13

10 AXE CAPITAL ADVISORS - INTERNAL MARKET UPDATE December 7, 20 KEY GHANA ECONOMIC DATA Latest economic figures for Ghana September GDP has inflated by 2.00% in the Second Quarter of the year 20, from 1.50 in the First Quarter of The Second quarter Year-on-year GDP growth advanced by 9% for the Second Quarter of the Year. 3. Inflation rate now stands at 12.2% for the month of September. 4. Monetary policy rate is 20.0%. 5. Interbank lending rate was 20.99% as at 31 st August, Average lending rate is 35.5% as at 31 st August, Total Exports as at April 20 is $4.92bn. Gold $2.2bn (44.7%). Cocoa $1.14bn (23.2%). Oil $845m (.2%) 8. Total Imports as at April 20 is $3.8bn. Oil $556m (14.6%). 9. Deficit is 1.5% of GDP as at March External debt as at September 2016 is GH 71.9bn (35.3% of GDP). 11. Domestic debt as at September 2016 is GH 55.2bn (27.2% of GDP). 12. Non-Performing loans (of banks) as at April 20 is 19.8%. Page 9 of 13

11 AXE CAPITAL ADVISORS - INTERNAL MARKET UPDATE December 7, THE CAPITAL REVIEW 1 st December, 20 Barclays announces final sale of stake in Africa Barclays has announced it will on Tuesday, December 5, sell a 7 percent stake in its Johannesburg-based Barclays Africa Group. The bank announced this latest decision on Friday, December 1, 20. Some analysts believe the move could likely be the last in a series of such sales as Barclays ends more than 90 years as a major presence on the continent. Barclays said after the sale, its stake in the African division would be 14.9 percent, which represents its desired long-term goal and no further sales are planned. The British bank first announced in March 2016 that it would sell most of its then 62 percent stake in Barclays Africa over two to three years. The plan formed part of efforts by the bank to refocus its strategy on the United States and Britain. A Financial Analyst at Dublin-based brokerage Goodbody, John Cronin, said, This news should be warmly received by shareholders and is a further step along the path to eliminating non-core activities as management focuses on its UK business Shares in Barclays Africa have risen by 9.7 percent since Barclays announced it would sell the unit in March By: citibusinessnews.com Page 10 of 13

12 AXE CAPITAL ADVISORS - INTERNAL MARKET UPDATE December 7, th November, 20 BoG reduces policy rate again to 20% The Bank of Ghana (BoG) has reduced the policy rate by 100 basis points from 21 percent to 20 percent. This was announced after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) finished its 79th meeting which is the final for 20. This is the fourth reduction for this year by the Central Bank. By this, the policy rate has been reduced from 25.5 percent to 20 percent this year. Speaking at a press conference, the Governor of the Bank of Ghana, Dr. Ernest Addison attributed the reason for the reduction to the inflationary trends and medium targets of the fiscal policy. There are indications that the oil induced growth is gaining momentum while the slower non-oil growth remains a concern and may require additional impetus to boost overall growth towards its full potential. However, recent developments such as the implementation of growth enhancing government policy initiatives, positive sentiments from businesses and consumers as well as improvement in electricity supply are supportive of non-oil growth. The Governor added, These notwithstanding, slower private credit expansion and tightening credit stance on enterprises could tamper with growth momentum. Under the circumstances, the committee decided to reduce the policy rate by 100 basis points to 20 percent. By: citibusinessnews.com BoG will be flexible with rural banks recapitalization 28 th November, 20 The Governor of the Bank of Ghana (BoG), Dr. Ernest Addison has stated that the central bank will be flexible in implementing the new capital requirement for rural banks. The Bank of Ghana set the end of this year for all rural banks in the country to meet a new capital requirement of one million cedis. With just a month for rural banks in the country to meet the one million cedis capital requirement, Citi Business News understand most of them may not be able to meet it. Page 11 of 13

13 AXE CAPITAL ADVISORS - INTERNAL MARKET UPDATE December 7, 20 Speaking at a press conference after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, Dr. Addison stated that the central bank will work with rural banks by being flexible in the implementation of the new capital requirement. This is an important one, we set the minimum capital for rural banks at a million cedis, but quite a number of them are yet to meet it and today is 27 th November, with the deadline at the end of this year. I had said during the rural bank week that the Bank of Ghana will be flexible about that. We will work with the rural banks to strengthen the levels of capitalization, he said. It s important to the extent that we are allowing them to take on depositors fund, we have to ensure that these banks are strong enough to do that, and this is the assurance that I gave them that we would be flexible and work with them to build up the level of capitalization, he added. Figures published by the Bank of Ghana show that, 140 rural banks have been licensed as at April Out of this, the Ashanti region has the highest number with 25, followed by the Eastern region with 23 rural banks, then the Brong Ahafo region with 22 rural banks. Central region has 20 rural banks while the Western region has 14, followed by the Volta region with 13, Northern and Greater Accra regions with 7 each, Upper East 5, and Upper West region 4. Information gathered by Citi Business News indicates that most of these rural banks are racing against time to meet the deadline for the new capital requirement of million cedis by 31 st December. The Managing Director of ARB Apex Bank, Kojo Mata in October narrated how banks are struggling to meet the new capital requirement Some of the rural banks are struggling to meet the December 31 st deadline and are pleading with the Bank of Ghana to do something about it. We hope something will be done about it, he said. According to him, rural banks are crucial in lending to traders and business owners across the hinterlands where commercial banks may not want to operate since it may be unprofitable. By: citibusinessnews.com Page 12 of 13

14 AXE CAPITAL ADVISORS - INTERNAL MARKET UPDATE December 7, TERM OF THE WEEK KEOGH PLAN A pension plan for self-employed individuals or employees of unincorporated businesses. It is also known as self-employed pension. Source: Patheos QUOTE OF THE WEEK Simplicity has a way of improving performance by enabling us to better understand what we are doing. - Charlie Munger Page 13 of 13