Myanmar Economic Monitor May 2018 Growth Amidst Uncertainty. Hans Anand Beck Lead Economist, Myanmar

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1 Myanmar Economic Monitor May 2018 Growth Amidst Uncertainty Hans Anand Beck Lead Economist, Myanmar May 17, 2018

2 Key Takeaways The economy performed better in 2017/18 amidst uncertainty. A stronger-than-expected global economic recovery in 2017 provided a boost to global trade. Myanmar s economy saw a broad based recovery in growth led by agriculture and manufacturing while services growth declined slightly as tourism was affected by Rakhine uncertainties. Inflation moderated, the current account and fiscal deficits narrowed and the Kyat strengthened slightly within the year. While the economic outlook remains positive, domestic risks in particular have intensified. Rising input costs, policy uncertainty and the perception of slowing reforms and banking sector uncertainty. Revenue leakage and low budget execution hinder basic service provision and infrastructure and hence productivity. The external environment may deteriorate due to uncertainty in global trade policy and commodity price volatility. The government has the reform tools to improve the outlook Implement the Myanmar Sustainable Development Plan Coordinate implementation and raise awareness of the Investment law and companies act to generate FDI and knowledge, and employment. Use evidence that ownership, firm size and stable electricity provision affect firm productivity. Access to credit is reported as improving, but the road to financial stability and inclusion will be bumpy.

3 The economy performed better in 2017/18 than 2016/17 The outlook remains positive, but risks have intensified Government reforms can raise the outlook and economic potential 3

4 Global conditions improved, providing a favorable environment Percent Real GDP Growth (Percent) World Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies e 2018f Source: World Bank Global Economic Prospects January

5 Myanmar capitalized on global recovery, but is losing its lead in the region. In developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP), economic growth strengthened slightly in average LAO CH MMR CAM VIET INDO MAL THA

6 April'17 May'17 June'17 July'17 Aug'17 Sept'17 Oct'17 Nov'17 Dec'17 Jan'18 Feb'18 Mar'18 A broad based a broad based pick up in growth. Real GDP growth and sector contribution Output, Employment, Price PMI 9% 8% 7% 6% 8.4% 8.0% 7.0% 5.9% 6.4% 6.8% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 2013/ / / / / /19F Agriculture Industry Services GDP production Output Employment Future output index

7 Share of GDP Share of GDP Strong export performance narrowed the trade and current account deficits, and FDI flows picked up to cover. Current account Financial Account 10% 5% 0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -5% -4.0% -10% -15% -6.0% -8.0% -20% -25% Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/2016 Q1/2017 Q2/2017 Q3/ % -12.0% Trade balance Services balance -14.0% Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/2016 Q1/2017 Q2/2017 Q3/2017 Direct Invesment Portfolio Investment Primary income balance Current account Secondary income balance Other Investment Financial account

8 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Index: April 2017 = 100 USD billion Export growth led by natural gas prices which are volatile, garments and agriculture Natural gas exports: Quantities and prices Rice - Acceleration of exports and diversification of destinations (m tons) Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2013/ / / / /18 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2014/ / / /18 Value Quantity Price Border Sea Total

9 yoy change Inflation fell on average, and within the year, before picking up in August, driven by food prices Inflation drivers 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% CPI Food CPI Non Food CPI Headline

10 Actual fiscal deficit may be considerably lower than the budget Fiscal balances, Percent of GDP 2% 1.1% 1% 0.4% 0% -1.1% -1% -0.5% -2% -2.7% -1.1% -3% -3.9% -4% -2.2% -3.1% -4.7% -5% -4.3% -6% -5.8% PA PA PA RE 2014/ / / /18 Public Sector SEEs Union Government

11 The economy performed better in 2017/18 than 2016/17 The outlook remains positive, but risks have intensified Government reforms can raise the outlook and economic potential 12

12 Favorable medium-term economic outlook Real GDP growth (% change) CPI Inflation (end of period) Current account balance (% of GDP) Fiscal balance (% of GDP)

13 But downside risks have intensified Upside Downside External risks Domestic risks 14

14 The economy performed better in 2017/18 than 2016/17 The outlook remains positive, but risks have intensified Government reforms can raise the outlook and economic potential 15

15 Buttress macroeconomic stability MSDP offers the much-needed unifying and coherent roadmap for reforms Key fiscal priority for Myanmar: to break out of the cycle of low revenue and low and inefficient public spending Could consider a fiscal strategy to increase spending on critical priorities for growth, such as capital investments in energy and transport, and for inclusive development, such as on education and health Good progress in improving transparency in the extractives sector, however, more can be done under the Extractives Industry Transparency Initiative

16 Improve operating environment for the private sector Perception of bureaucratic inertia, centralized decision making, and emerging protectionism are bottlenecks to improving the operating environment for the private sector Coordination across government departments to implement recent new economic legislations (e.g., Company Law, Investment Law) Consider using indicators in Ease of Doing Business as measurable targets for reforms and establish a mechanism to monitor reform progress, and to facilitate consultations with the private sector. Further liberalize sectors: such as insurance and banking services for foreign investments along with implementation of prudential regulations Ministries to develop communication strategies for public outreach/coherence in message (policy reforms)

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