RESEARCH at 09 June, 2017

Transcription

1 RESEARCH at 09 June, 2017 MARKET OUTLOOK AS AT 09 JUNE 2017 SUMMARY 1. Interest rates & T-Bills continue to fall. 3. Performance of Mutual Funds in Ghana 2. Ghana Cedi depreciates against major currencies. 4. African Stock Market PLEASE NOTE: In this report, Figures highlighted Green mean an increase in rate, amount, etc. Figures highlighted Red mean a reduction in rate, amount, etc. INTEREST RATES / INFLATION MPR (BoG) 22.5% (April 2017) Previous (MPR) 23.5% (March 2017) All time high 27.5% (March 2003) All time low 12.5% (Dec, 2006) Africa/World Highest 27.5% Ghana World second Highest Argentina Africa Lowest 2.2% Morocco World Lowest Switzerland (b) (a) Interbank Commercial Rate Bank Base Rate Ghana (b) Inflation UMB % pa (Effective June 6, 2017) ADB % pa (Effective June 12, 2017) CAL BANK % pa GCB % P.A (Effective July 2, 2017) SOURCE: Daily Graphic /Trading Economics PREVIOUS : March, % CURRENT : April, % All-Time High: March, % All-Time Low: May, % Medium Term Target ( 8 +/-) T-Bill Rates (Mon 05 June, 2017 To Fri 09 June, 2017) PERIOD 91-Day T-Bill has seen a weekly decrease of Day T-Bill has seen a weekly decrease of Year T-Bill has seen a weekly decrease of Year T-Bill recorded an interest rate of 18.5%. SOURCE: Bank of Ghana 5/6/2017 5/6/ /5/2017 Discount Rate Interest Rate (This week) Interest Rate (Last week) Government continues to reduce domestic borrowings. This has caused benchmark Interest rates to fall. Long term Investors are also likely to begin to consider investing in stocks. Weekly Ch 91-Day % Day % Year % Year Fixed Note % 18.5 EXCHANGE RATE (Fri 09 June, 2017) SOURCE: Bank of Ghana Currency Pairs Code Buy Sell Average Day %Ch U. S. Dollar USDGHS % Pound GBPGHS Sterling % Euro EURGHS % Canadian CADGHS Dollar % CFA Franc GHSXOF (BCEAO) % Chinese CNYGHS Renminbi % NAIRA GHSNGN % South ZARGHS African Rand % The Cedi depreciated against major currencies such as the US Dollar by (-0.37%), the Euro by (-0.05%), the Canadian Dollars by (-0.86%), the CFA Franc by (-0.05%), the Chinese Renminbi by (- 0.39%), the Naira by (-0.37%) and the South African Rand by (-0.74%). The Cedi, however, appreciated against the Pounds Sterling (1.29%) GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE COMPOSITE INDEX (GSECI) (Friday 09 June, ) SOURCE: Ghana Stock Exchange / Trading Economics Indices and Market Cap Level Previous Level Change % Change GSE Composite Index 1, , % GSE Financial Index 1, , % Market Cap (GHS'mn) 58, , % 1, There has been a marginal decrease in the GSE Composite Index, GSE Financial Index and Market cap. Volume of shares traded on the market was 92,859 Shares. ICPL Research_ Market Outlook_09 June 2017 Page 1 of 5

2 Value (GHS) of shares traded on the market was GHS 122,937 Goil gained on the market whiles EGH and GCB lost on the market. GGSECI decreased 0.27% to 1, on Friday 09 June, 2017 from 1, in the previous trading session. Historically, the Ghana Stock Market Composite GSE-CI reached an all-time high of in February 2014 and a record low of in December of Commodity Prices Ghana SOURCE: Trading Economics COMMODITY PRICES COMMODITIES CURRENT PRICE(USD) PREVIOUS PRICE (USD) WEEKLY CH Crude Oil % Gold 1, % Cocoa 2, % Rice % Coffee % Sugar % Prices of Cocoa, Rice, Coffee and sugar increased on the international market. This means extra Cedis could be earned by exporting of those commodities. Price of Crude oil and Gold, however, decreased on the international market. INVESTMENT RATES SOURCE: From sample institutions & other sources Investment Rates (Amts of 5,000 to 50,000) Ghana The sample investment rates provided below are as quoted by various institutions in each category. Actual rates, however, vary per transaction based on negotiations, among other factors. Generally interest rates have been on the decline. For instance, the 91 Day treasury bill fell to 12.39% this week. ASSET MANAGEMENT COMPANIES AMOUNT 91-Day 182-Day 365-Day Ideal Capital Partners 5,000-50,000 24% 26% 26.50% Databank Asset Mgt Services 50,000 17% 19% N/A FirstBanc Financial Services 5,000-50, % % % Unisecurities 5,000-50, % % 20-23% Sirius Capital 5,000-50, % % % Biege Capital 5,000-50,000 24% 26% 27% All-Time Capital 5,000-50, % 22-25% 23-27% IFS CAPITAL 5,000-50, % % % SEM CAPITAL 5,000-50,000 21% 22% 23% Goldcoast Securities 5,000-50,000 24% 25% 26% NDK Asset management Ltd 5,000-50, % % % HFC Investment 20,000 & Above 14.50% 16.50% 17% CDH Securities Ltd 5,000-50, % % % Mclottey Capital 5,000-50, % 26-27% % SGL Royal Kapita 5,000-50, % 19-22% 20-24% Apex Capital Pertners 5,000-50,000 21% 22% 23% Brooks Asset Management 5,000-50, % 20-22% 21-23% EDC Investment 5,000-50,000 7% 11% 21% Cal Asset Management 5,000-50,000 16% 17% 18% SAS Investment 5,000-50, % 23-24% 25-26% Generally, investment rates remain lower than previous weeks, although not as low as expected. The Association of Ghana Industries (AGI) is still pushing for a reduction in lending rates by the commercial banks, consistent with the reduction in the benchmark MPR. Some analysts are of the view that a reduction of rates on the market, consistent with the YTD reduction in the benchmark monetary policy rate (MPR) by 3% to 22.5% on 22 March, 2017, will take some time due to the high incidence of non-performing loans (NPL). Some industry practitioners, including the Head of Treasury at HFC Bank hinted that the reduced inflation and T-Bill rates will soon reflect in the calculation of their base rates, as instructed by the Bank of Ghana (BoG). ICPL Research_ Market Outlook_09 June 2017 Page 2 of 5

3 MUTUAL FUND SOURCE: Doobia.com & Some company websites MONEY MARKET EDC FIXED INCOME EDC Investment % 31-May-2017 FIRSTFUND FirstBanC % 06-Jun-2017 GALAXY MFUND GALAXY CAPITAL % 05-Jun-2017 HFC UNIT HFC INVESTMENT % 08-Jun-2017 Mfund Databank Asset Mgmt Services Ltd % 08-Jun-2017 MyWealth Trust IFS Capital Mgt Ltd % 31-Jan-2017 Omega Income Omega Capital Ltd % 07-Jun-2017 Richie Rich IFS Capital Mgt Ltd % 31-Jan-2017 SEM MoneyPlus SEM Capital Mgt Ltd % 31-May-2017 TTL IncomeHaven TTL Capital Limited % 29-Mar-2017 All-Time Bond All-Time Capital Limited % 25-Apr-2017 EdiFund T1 Databank Asset Mgt Services Ltd % 08-Jun-2017 EdiFund T2 Databank Asset Mgt Services Ltd % 08-Jun-2017 Gold Money Gold Coast Fund Mgt % 05-Jun-2017 Sirius Opportunity Sirius Capital Limited % 31-May-2017 STANLIB Cash STANLIB Ghana Ltd % 08-Jun-2017 STANLIB Income STANLIB Ghana Ltd % 08-Jun-2017 IDEAL SIKA FUND IDEAL CAPITAL PARTNERS % 9-Jun-17 Firstfund recorded the highest yield of 33.65% for the week under review followed by GalaxyMfund with a yield of 28.85% RichieRich and MyWealth Trust recorded the lowest yield of 0% for this week. This may be due to a lack of information to update the funds current performance. Ideal Sikafund current yield of 18.48%, beats inflation of 13% and the benchmark 91-Day T-bills rate of 12.3% ETHICAL FUND ARK Fund Databank Asset Mgt Services Ltd % 08-Jun-2017 There is only one ethical fund in the Industry REAL ESTATE FUND HFC Reit HFC Investment Services Ltd % 08-Jun-2017 There is only one real estate fund in the Industry ICPL Research_ Market Outlook_09 June 2017 Page 3 of 5

4 MUTUAL FUNDS (BALANCED FUND & EQUITY FUND) SOURCE: doobia.com SOURCE: Doobia.com & Some Company websites EQUITY FUND Anidaso Fund New Generation Investment % 06-Apr-2017 Dalex Vision Dalex Capital % 06-Jun-2017 EPAcK Databank % 08-Jun-2017 Gold Fund Gold Coast % 05-Jun-2017 HeritageFund FirstBanC % 06-Jun-2017 HFC Equity HFC Investment Services Limited % 08-Jun-2017 Legacy Trust IFS Capital Management Ltd % 31-Jan-2017 NTHC Horizon NTHC Limited % 18-Jan-2017 Omega Equity Omega Capital Limited % 07-Jun-2017 SAS Fortune SAS Investment Mgt Limited % 08-Jun-2017 SEM ALL- AFRICA SEM Capital Management Limited % 31-May-17 SAS Fortune recorded the highest yield of 16.75% for the week under review followed by Anidaso fund with a yield of 10.93% Legacy Trust recorded the lowest yield of 0% for this week. This may be due to a lack of information to update the funds current performance. BALANCED FUND Fund Fund Manager Bid Price Offer Price YTD Last Updated BFUND Databank Asset Management Servi % 08-Jun-2017 CAMPUSFUND SDC Capital Limited % 04-Jun-2017 CCMF Black Star Advisors % 22-May-2017 CDH BALANCED CDH Asset Management Ltd % 01-Jun-2017 EDC BALANCED EDC Investments Limited % 31-May-2017 Freedom Fund Liberty Asset Mgt Ltd % 07-Apr-2017 GalaxyBfund Galaxy Capital Ltd % 05-Jun-2017 HFC F Plan HFC Investment Services Limited % 08-Jun-2017 Kiddifund EDC Investments Limited % 31-May-2017 McTrust McOttley Capital Limited % 08-Jun-2017 MET Wealth MET Capital Group Limited % 02-Feb-2017 Nordea Income Nordea Capital Limited % 02-May-2017 SEM Income SEM Capital Mgt Ltd % 7-Apr-17 CDH Balanced recorded the highest yield of 13.64% for the week under review. METWealth recorded the lowest yield of 0% for this week since its launch on 30 April This may be due to a lack of information to update the funds current performance ICPL Research_ Market Outlook_09 June 2017 Page 4 of 5

5 AFRICAN STOCK & FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET SOURCE: Trading Economics STOCK MARKET OF SOME AFRICAN COUNTRIES COUNTRY INDEX LEVEL DAY CHANGE WEEKLY CHANGE MONTHLY CHANGE YEARLY CHANGE DATE Ghana GGSECI 1, % -0.09% 0.62% 9.26% 9-Jun-17 Nigeria NSE-ALL Share 33, % 6.07% 20.80% 22.19% 9-Jun-17 South Africa JALSH - ALL Share 52, % -1.27% -3.76% -1.80% 9-Jun-17 Egypt Egypt EGX 30 13, % 1.61% 5.80% 76.42% 8-Jun-17 Kenya Nairobi 20 3, % -0.13% 9.24% -9.51% 9-Jun-17 Bostwana Gaborone 9, % % % -7.60% 8-Jun-17 Tunisia TUN 5, % 1.51% 1.33% 6.20% 9-Jun-17 Namibia NSXOverall 1, % -1.32% -3.80% 4.76% 9-Jun-17 The African Stock Markets recorded a mixed outcome for equity investors the week under review. The Nigerian Stock Market recorded the weekly highest gain of 6.07% followed by Egyptian Stock Market with a weekly gain of 1.61%. The South African and Namibia Stock Markets recorded the weekly lowest loss of -1.27% and -1.32%. FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET - AFRICA COUNTRY INDEX PRICE DAY CHANGE WEEKLY CHANGE MONTHLY CHANGE YEARLY CHANGE DATE Ghana USDGHS % 1.44% 2.68% 12.66% 9-Jun-17 Nigeria USDNGN % 5.78% 5.70% 61.81% 9-Jun-17 South Africa USDZAR % 1.15% -3.88% % 9-Jun-17 Egypt USDEGP % 0.89% 0.22% % 9-Jun-17 Kenya USDKES % -0.19% -0.19% 1.98% 9-Jun-17 Bostwana USDBWP % % -9.78% 9-Jun-17 Tunisia USDTND % 0.97% 0.91% 13.60% 9-Jun-17 Namibia USDNAD % 0.40% -4.16% % 9-Jun-17 Most African countries currencies depreciated against the United State Dollar due to fall in prices of most traditional exports and higher demand for dollar by business owners for importing foreign goods. The Bostwana Pula appreciated the highest against the dollar (-0.03%) followed by Kenyan Shiling of (-0.19) for the week under review. The Nigerian Niara depreciated the highest against the United State Dollar (5.78%) followed by the Ghana Cedi (1.44%) for the week under review. Prepared by: Peter Nii Odoi Charway Head, Research & Strategy peter@idealcapitalpartnersgh.com Eugene Amponsah-Asiamah Research Officer eugene@idealcapitalpartnersgh.com ICPL Research_ Market Outlook_09 June 2017 Page 5 of 5