RESEARCH at 30 June, 2017
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1 RESEARCH at 30 June, 2017 MARKET OUTLOOK AS AT 30 JUNE 2017 SUMMARY 1. Ghana s economy grows at 6.6% in first quarter 3. Gold Price falls 2. Cedi falls against major currencies 4. Performance of Mutual Funds in Ghana PLEASE NOTE: In this report, Figures highlighted Green mean an increase in rate, amount, etc. Figures highlighted Red mean a reduction in rate, amount, etc. GHANA GDP ANNUAL GROWTH RATE / Ghana Statistical Services Actual: Q1, % Previous: Q4, % All-Time High: Q1, % All-Time Low: Q1, % U.S.A: Q1, % U.K: Q1, % CHINA: Q1, % GERMANY: Q1, % GHANA GDP ANNUAL GROWTH RATE HIGHLIGHT SOURCE: TRADING ECONOMICS OVERVIEW: In Ghana, the annual growth rate in GDP measures the change in the value of the goods and services produced by the country during the period of 1 year. Ghana, which exports cocoa, gold and oil was one of Africa s bestperforming economies until 2014, when it was hit by a slump in commodity prices, among others. YTD 2017: The economy advanced 6.6 percent year-on-year in the first three months of 2017, following a 4.1 percent expansion in the previous period. The growth, according to the Ghana Statistical Service, is attributable to the coming on-stream of oil produced from the Tweneboah Enyenra and Ntomme (TEN) oil field. It is the highest growth rate since the third quarter of 2014 as manufacturing recovered; oil and gas output jumped and agriculture rose the most in nearly three years while the services sector slowed. A year earlier, the GDP growth was lower at 4.4 percent. Government has targeted an annual GDP growth rate of 6.3 percent, a figure some analysts have described as ambitious but achievable if the various policies outlined in the budget are pursued. IMPLICATION: The GDP growth rate measures how fast the economy is growing. It does this by comparing one quarter of the country's gross domestic product to the previous quarter. GDP measures the economic output of a nation. The GDP growth rate is the most important indicator of economic health. It changes during the four phases of the business cycle: expansion, peak, contraction and trough. When the economy is expanding, the GDP growth rate is positive. If it's growing, so will businesses, jobs and personal income. If it's contracting, then businesses will hold off investing in new purchases. They ll delay hiring new employees until they are confident the economy will improve. Those delays further depress the economy. Without jobs, consumers have less money to spend. If the GDP growth rate turns negative, then the country's economy is in a recession. With negative growth, GDP is less than the quarter or year before. It will continue to be negative until it hits a trough. ICPL Research_ Market Outlook_30 June 2017 Page 1 of 5
2 GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE COMPOSITE INDEX (GSECI) (Friday 30 June, ) SOURCE: Ghana Stock Exchange / Trading Economics 1, There has been a marginal increase in the GSE Composite Index, GSE Financial Index and Market cap. Volume of shares traded on the market was 1,524,522 Shares. Value (GHS) of shares traded on the market was GHS 1,505,393 ETI, BOPP, GOIL, SCB and EGL gained on the market. There were no losers. GGSECI increased 0.65% to 1, on Friday 30 June, 2017 from 1, in the previous trading session. Historically, the Ghana Stock Market Composite GSE-CI reached an all-time high of in February 2014 and a record low of in December of 2011 T-Bill Rates (Tues 27 June, 2017 To Fri 30 June, 2017) PERIOD 27/6/ /6/2017 Interest Rate (This week) Interest Rate (Last week) SOURCE: Bank of Ghana Weekly Ch 91-Day % Day % Year % Year Fixed Note % EXCHANGE RATE (Fri 30 June, 2017) SOURCE: Bank of Ghana 91-Day T-Bill has seen a weekly decrease of Day T-Bill has seen a weekly decrease of Year T-Bill remains the same. 2-Year T-Bill remains the same. INFLATION PREVIOUS : April, % CURRENT : May, % All-Time High: March, % All-Time Low: May, % Medium Term Target ( 8 +/- 2)% Consumer prices in Ghana increased 12.6 % year-on-year in May of 2017, easing from a 13% rise in April. It is the lowest inflation rate since September of 2013, as declining fuel cost led to a general slowdown in prices. COMMODITY PRICES (Fri 30 June, 2017) Price of Crude Oil, Cocoa, Rice, Coffee and Sugar increased on the international market. This means extra dollars could be earned by exporting those commodities. Price of Gold, however, decreased on the international market. ICPL Research_ Market Outlook_30 June 2017 Page 2 of 5
3 Asset Management Firms INVESTMENT RATES (Amts of 5,000 to 50,000) Ghana SOURCE: From sample institutions & other sources The sample investment rates provided below are as quoted by various institutions in each category. Actual rates, however, vary per transaction based on negotiations, among other factors. Generally interest rates have been on the decline. Forinstance the 91 Day treasury bill fell to 11.93% this week. ASSET MANAGEMENT FIRMS COMPANIES AMOUNT 91-Day 182-Day 365-Day Ideal Capital Partners 5,000-50, % 26.00% 26.50% Databank Asset Mgt Services 50, % 13.00% 15.00% FirstBanc Financial Services 5,000-50, % 13.11% 15.00% Unisecurities 5,000-50, % 19.00% 22.00% Sirius Capital 5,000-50, % 16-18% 20.00% Biege Capital 5,000-50, % 31.00% 32.00% All-Time Capital 5,000-50, % 22.00% 23.00% IFS CAPITAL 5,000-50, % 20.00% 22.50% SEM CAPITAL 5,000-50, % 21.00% 22.00% Goldcoast Securities 5,000-50, % 25.00% 26.00% NDK Asset management Ltd 5,000-50, % 21.50% 22.50% HFC Investment 20,000 & Above 14.00% 16.00% 17.00% CDH Securities Ltd 5,000-50, % % % Mclottey Capital 5,000-50, % 24.50% 25.20% SGL Royal Kapita 5,000-50, % 18.00% 21.00% Apex Capital Pertners 5,000-50, % 22.00% 23.00% Brooks Asset Management 5,000-50, % 20.00% 21.00% EDC Investment 5,000-50, % 11.00% 21.00% Cal Asset Management 5,000-50, % 17.00% 18.00% SAS Investment 5,000-50, % 23.00% 25.00% Generally, investment rates remain lower than previous weeks, although not as low as expected. The Association of Ghana Industries (AGI) is still pushing for a reduction in lending rates by the commercial banks, consistent with the reduction in the benchmark MPR. Some analysts are of the view that a reduction of rates on the market, consistent with the YTD reduction in the benchmark monetary policy rate (MPR) by 3% to 22.5% on 22 March, 2017, will take some time due to the high incidence of non-performing loans (NPL). Some industry practitioners, including the Head of Treasury at HFC Bank hinted that the reduced inflation and T-Bill rates will soon reflect in the calculation of their base rates, as instructed by the Bank of Ghana (BoG). MUTUAL FUND SOURCE: Doobia.com & Some company websites MONEY MARKET (Annualized Yield) Fund Fund Manager Bid Price Offer Price ANNU. YIELD Last Updated EDC FIXED INCOME EDC Investment % 16-Jun-2017 FIRSTFUND FirstBanC % 28-Jun-2017 GALAXY MFUND GALAXY CAPITAL % 05-Jun-2017 HFC UNIT HFC INVESTMENT % 28-Jun-2017 Mfund Databank Asset Mgmt Services Ltd % 29-Jun-2017 MyWealth Trust IFS Capital Mgt Ltd N/A 31-Jan-2017 Omega Income Omega Capital Ltd % 29-Jun-2017 Richie Rich IFS Capital Mgt Ltd N/A 31-Jan-2017 SEM MoneyPlus SEM Capital Mgt Ltd % 15-Jun-2017 TTL IncomeHaven TTL Capital Limited % 29-Mar-2017 IDEAL SIKA FUND IDEAL CAPITAL PARTNERS % 30-Jun-17 ICPL Research_ Market Outlook_30 June 2017 Page 3 of 5
4 MONEY MARKET ( Year To Date) Fund Fund Manager Bid Price Offer Price YTD Last Updated All-Time Bond All-Time Capital Limited % 06-Jun-2017 EdiFund T1 Databank Asset Mgt Services Ltd % 29-Jun-2017 EdiFund T2 Databank Asset Mgt Services Ltd % 29-Jun-2017 Gold Money Gold Coast Fund Mgt % 28-Jun-2017 Sirius Opportunity Sirius Capital Limited % 30-Jun-2017 STANLIB Cash STANLIB Ghana Ltd % 28-Jun-2017 STANLIB Income STANLIB Ghana Ltd % 28-Jun-2017 IDEAL SIKA FUND IDEAL CAPITAL PARTNERS % 30-Jun-17 Firstfund recorded the highest yield of 32.99% for the week under review followed by GalaxyMfund with a yield of 28.85% RichieRich and MyWealth Trust recorded the lowest yield of 0% for this week. This may be due to a lack of information to update the funds current performance. Ideal Sikafund current yield of 18.48%, beats inflation of 12.6% and the benchmark 91-Day T- bills rate of 11.93% ETHICAL FUND There is only one ethical fund in the Industry REAL ESTATE FUND There is only one real estate fund in the Industry ICPL Research_ Market Outlook_30 June 2017 Page 4 of 5
5 EQUITY FUND Fund Fund Manager Bid Price Offer Price YTD Last Updated Anidaso Fund New Generation Investment % 09-Jun-2017 Dalex Vision Dalex Capital % 27-Jun-2017 EPAcK Databank % 29-Jun-2017 Gold Fund Gold Coast % 28-Jun-2017 HeritageFund FirstBanC % 28-Jun-2017 HFC Equity HFC Investment Services Limited % 28-Jun-2017 Legacy Trust IFS Capital Management Ltd N/A 31-Jan-2017 NTHC Horizon NTHC Limited % 18-Jan-2017 Omega Equity Omega Capital Limited % 29-Jun-2017 SAS Fortune SAS Investment Mgt Limited % 29-Jun-2017 SEM ALL- AFRICA SEM Capital Management Limited % 15-Jun-2017 SOURCE: doobia.com SOURCE: Doobia.com & Some Company websites SAS Fortune recorded the highest yield of 18.83% for the week under review followed by Dalex Vision with a yield of 12.41% Legacy Trust recorded the lowest yield of 0% for this week. This may be due to a lack of information to update the funds current performance. BALANCED FUND Fund Fund Manager Bid Price Offer Price YTD Last Updated BFUND Databank Asset Management Servi % 29-Jun-2017 CAMPUSFUND SDC Capital Limited % 28-Jun-2017 CCMF Black Star Advisors % 22-May-2017 CDH BALANCED CDH Asset Management Ltd % 28-Jun-2017 EDC BALANCED EDC Investments Limited % 16-Jun-2017 Freedom Fund Liberty Asset Mgt Ltd % 07-Apr-2017 GalaxyBfund Galaxy Capital Ltd % 05-Jun-2017 HFC F Plan HFC Investment Services Limited % 28-Jun-2017 Kiddifund EDC Investments Limited % 16-Jun-2017 McTrust McOttley Capital Limited % 19-Jun-2017 MET Wealth MET Capital Group Limited N/A 02-Feb-2017 Nordea Income Nordea Capital Limited % 02-May-2017 SEM Income SEM Capital Mgt Ltd % 07-Apr-2017 Galaxy Bfund recorded the highest yield of 16.56% for the week under review. METWealth recorded the lowest yield of 0% for this week since its launch on 30 April This may be due to a lack of information to update the funds current performance Prepared by: Peter Nii Odoi Charway Head, Research & Strategy peter@idealcapitalpartnersgh.com Eugene Amponsah-Asiamah Research Officer eugene@idealcapitalpartnersgh.com ICPL Research_ Market Outlook_30 June 2017 Page 5 of 5
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