Divergent Monetary Policy Implication for sub-saharan African Economies. By Sarah O. Alade Deputy Governor, Economic Policy Central Bank of Nigeria

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Divergent Monetary Policy Implication for sub-saharan African Economies. By Sarah O. Alade Deputy Governor, Economic Policy Central Bank of Nigeria"

Transcription

1 Divergent Monetary Policy Implication for sub-saharan African Economies By Sarah O. Alade Deputy Governor, Economic Policy Central Bank of Nigeria

2 Crisis background The recent financial crisis is one of the most significant macroeconomic crisis in recent times Many countries suffered low investment rate, high unemployment rate and collapse of the financial market Financial markets not only triggered the crisis, but played a role in transmission of shock to the real economy Collapse on financial institutions, sharp decline on several assets, lack of credit, and loss of confidence in the financial system were all indicators of the grave situation

3 Crisis background The 28 crisis caused huge recession and outpaced conventional monetary policy response With the exceptional economic conditions, Central Banks took unconventional measures to promote investment and production in advanced economies The massive expansionary monetary policy in industrialized countries had global effects and international spillovers that caused emerging markets economies to change their monetary and economic policy

4 Crisis background.. The US and UK adopted some assets buying and bond purchasing measures to resuscitate their economies This had implications for emerging market economies in the areas of capital inflows, bond yield, assets prices and exchange rate volatility. The near zero interest rate in advanced economies gave rise to capital flows into emerging markets and SSA benefited from the inflows.

5 Divergent Monetary Policy: Impact on SSA Economies While advanced economies experienced low growth, economies of emerging markets witnessed sustained growth as high interest rate attracted inflows from advanced economies Quantitative Easing policies of the US FED and EU countries resulted in an unprecedented increase in monetary base, lower interest rates and flattened yield curve With cheap and new capital flows into the SSA economies, many countries became highly exposed to external shocks.

6 Divergent Monetary Policy: Impact on SSA Economies Real GDP for Sub-Saharan Africa * 216* * Projections Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database

7 Growth in SSA remain good although at a lower rate. Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Growth, North Africa: Real GDP Growth, Percent 4 Percent Average Average Average Average Near-Term Outlook 7

8 Divergent of growth for SSA export market, China is slowing down, while Europe and the United States are picking up 2 China, Europe, and United States: Real GDP Growth, China 15 United States Europe Percent Near-Term Outlook 8

9 Divergent Monetary policy Impact on SSA Economies Quantitative Easing also promoted trading in the financial markets and some Sub-Saharan Africa countries raised huge amount of money from the international debt market taking advantage of the near zero interest rate. However, the drop in commodity prices is putting many SSA economies in a challenging position Most SSA African countries are commodity exporters and low commodity prices will effect the external position and financing in these countries

10 Falling commodity prices is constraining growth rate and affecting the fiscal position of most countries Crude Oil Price (Monthly) Main exports & top trading partners of selected African economies Country Product (% value of export) Major trading Partners (% of total exports) Angola Crude Oil (96%), Diamonds (1%) China (51%), US (1%), India (1%) Côte d'ivoire Cocoa (33%), Oil (13%) Ghana (9%), US (9%), Nigeria (8%) Ethiopia Coffee (23%), Vegetables (19%), Oil seeds (13%) Somalia (14%), Netherlands (1%), China (9%) Ghana Oil (33%), Cocoa (27%), Gold (13%) China (11%), France (1%), South Africa (8%) Kenya Tea (18%), Vegetables (11%), Oil (7%) Uganda (12%), US (8%), Netherlands (8%) Nigeria Oil (76%), Natural Gas (11%), India (15%), Brazil (1%), Spain (8%) Gold (2%), Tobacco (7%), Precious Metals Tanzania (6%) India (16%), China (12%), South Africa (7%) Zambia Copper (61%), Base Metals (5%) China (29%), Switzerland (2%), DRC (13%) Source: UNCTAD. Source: Bloomberg

11 The drop in commodity prices will affect many SSA commodityexporting countries, and the near term outlook remain mixed Outlook for select Commodity Prices 213- Sept GOLD COCOA BONNY LIGHT US$ Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Source: Bloomberg. 11

12 SSA still produce the bulk of the primary commodities.. Share of SSA Primary Commodites % of World production Platinum Cocoa Cotton Diamond Palladium Gold Tea Oil Alluminium Copper Nickle Coal Source: World Bank

13 Low oil price has negative impact for oil exporting countries Sub-Saharan African Oil Exporters: Fiscal Balance, Sub-Saharan African Oil Exporters: Current Account Balance, Percent of GDP -3-4 Percent of GDP October 214 WEO July 215 WEO No adjustment scenario Near-Term Outlook 13

14 Fiscal and external positions are now weaker than they were at the start of the global financial crisis. Current account balance (percent of GDP) Sub-Saharan Africa: Current Account Balance and Fiscal Balance, Sub-Saharan Africa Oil exporters Middle-income countries Low-income countries Fragile states Fiscal balance (percent of GDP) Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.

15 Divergent Monetary Policy: Impact on sub-saharan Africa. Portfolio flows have become increasingly volatile, and the region has recently experienced net outflows. Sub-Saharan Africa: Bond and Equity Flows to Emerging and Frontier Economies (Millions of U.S. dollars, cumulative since January 29) Millions of U.S. dollars 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, South Africa (left scale) Sub-Saharan African frontier markets (right scale) -2, ,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Source: Haver. Note: Data until August 12, 215. Near-Term Outlook 15

16 Divergent Monetary Policy: Impact on sub-saharan African Economies 25 After sharp rise in , the pace of sovereign bond issuance has slowed down. Sub-Saharan Africa: Outstanding International Sovereign Bonds for Markets Access Economies Excluding South Africa 2 Billions of U.S. dollars :Q1 27:Q3 28:Q1 28:Q3 29:Q1 29:Q3 21:Q1 21:Q3 211:Q1 211:Q3 212:Q1 212:Q3 213:Q1 213:Q3 214:Q1 214:Q3 215:Q1 215:Q3 Sources: Bank for International Settlement Quarterly Review; Bloomberg, L.P.; EPFR. Note: Market access economies includes Angola, Côte d'ivoire, Ethiopia, Ghana, Gabon, Kenya, Mauritius, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. Data until August 18,215 Near-Term Outlook 16

17 Divergent Monetary Policy: Impact on SSA Economies currency Sovereign spreads have widened and domestic currencies against the USD has weakened Zambia Sub-Saharan Africa: Sovereign Spreads Basis points change since October 214 Gabon Tanzania Nigeria Ghana Kenya Senegal Cote d'ivoire South Africa Sub-Saharan Africa: Exchange Rate to U.S. dollar Depreciation since October 214 Uganda Ghana Angola Zambia Tanzania Nigeria Kenya South Africa Mauritius Senegal Cote d'ivoire % 1% 2% 3% 4% Source: Bloomberg, L.P. Note: Data until August 17, 215.

18 Divergent Monetary Policy: Impact on sub-saharan African Economies Most countries expanded fiscal space Public Expenditure and Sources of Financing 35 Sub-Saharan Africa excluding Nigeria Selected Regions: Total Tax Revenue and Weighted average, percent of GDP Median, percent of GDP Average Potential Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook.. Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa Emerging and developing Asia Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database. Note: Middle East and North Africa includes Pakistan and Afghanistan. Emerging and developing Europe

19 Impact Divergent Monetary Policy on the Nigerian Economy Inflation has been itching up even as reserve dwindles 12. Food Inflation Headline Inflation Core Inflation Reserves US$million 2.. Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15. Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Source: CBN Statistical database

20 Divergent Monetary Policy: Near-term Outlook for sub- Saharan African Countries The recovery in advanced economies like US, UK and Euro zone areas will be sustained The European Central Bank has taken many steps to increase the degree of policy accommodation, including an expansion of its bondbuying program The Bank of Japan has continued with very accommodative monetary policies, including a % interest rate and purchases of Japanese government bonds and other assets. The slow down in the Chinese economy despite liquidity injection will have a spillover effect on SSA economies especially in terms of commodity prices

21 Divergent Monetary Policy: Near Term Outlook for sub-saharan Africa Minimal impact of FED rate hike expected for the region in the short term The anticipated rate hike has been priced in, and would not have much of an economic impact on the region. Risk to the regional outlook will be more effected by slow down in growth on China, increased production of shale oil in the USA, and geopolitical tension in the middle East (Iran deal, Libyan peace deal etc.) Further decline in oil price could exacerbate upside risks to exchange rate on many countries and result in dislocations and inflationary pressures Anticipated rate hike could foster another round of offshore positioning. Foreign investors may unwind fixed income and/or equity holding resulting in upward pressure on the domestic currency. This coupled with lower buffers from low commodity prices would put downward pressure on the domestic currency

22 Divergent Monetary Policy: Near term Outlook for sub-saharan Africa Many SSA countries are better prepared now than at the start of the crisis due to hard lessons learned and some reforms implemented, although more needs to be done in some countries to strengthen institutional structures. Some of the reforms include Fuel subsidy reform, Tax measures, including increasing tax rates, and Greater exchange rate flexibility, where feasible Domestic fundamentals are more likely to be the most important determinants of how SSA economies financial conditions respond to FED normalization policy Therefore, it is important that SSA economies continue to build strong system institution and strengthen financial system stability to be better prepared for the further FED actions.

23 Divergent Monetary Policy: Concluding Remarks As global markets anticipate rate hike by the FED, it is important that its global implication is considered and forward guidance given. Policy decisions should not be isolated, but most be consultative, gradual and predictable to avoid negative feedback effects for the US economy and the global economy. Emerging market economies have sustained global growth during the crisis, and policies coordination is essential to avoid dislocation and strengthen financial system stability Emerging markets should be prepared to manage capital flow volatility, build fiscal buffer and safeguard its financial system to weather the storm Market during the taper tantrum of Spring 213 underscores the importance of transparency and effective communication by the FED on the timing and magnitude of the normalization

Regional Economic Outlook for sub-saharan Africa. African Department International Monetary Fund November 30, 2017

Regional Economic Outlook for sub-saharan Africa. African Department International Monetary Fund November 30, 2017 Regional Economic Outlook for sub-saharan Africa African Department International Monetary Fund November 3, 217 Outline 1. Sharp slowdown after two decades of strong growth 2. A partial and tentative policy

More information

MFW4A: The impact of the global financial crisis on funding needs and borrowing strategies in Africa

MFW4A: The impact of the global financial crisis on funding needs and borrowing strategies in Africa MFW4A: The impact of the global financial crisis on funding needs and borrowing strategies in Africa Stefan Nalletamby, Coordinator This presentation covers four sections 1. Impact of the financial crisis

More information

SEPTEMBER Overview

SEPTEMBER Overview Overview SEPTEMBER 214 Global growth. Global growth has been weaker than expected so far this year, as economic activity disappointed in a number of major countries in the first six months (Figure 1).

More information

Fiscal Policy Responses in African Countries to the Global Financial Crisis

Fiscal Policy Responses in African Countries to the Global Financial Crisis Fiscal Policy Responses in African Countries to the Global Financial Crisis Sanjeev Gupta Deputy Director Fiscal Affairs Department International Monetary Fund Outline Global economic outlook Growth prospects

More information

The State of the World s Macroeconomy

The State of the World s Macroeconomy The State of the World s Macroeconomy Marcelo Giugale Senior Director Global Practice for Macroeconomics & Fiscal Management Washington DC, December 3 rd 2014 Content 1. What s Happening? Growing Concerns

More information

Global Outlook. October 22, M. Marc Stocker DEC-Development Prospects Group

Global Outlook. October 22, M. Marc Stocker DEC-Development Prospects Group Global Outlook October 22, 214 M. Marc Stocker DEC-Development Prospects Group mstocker1@worldbank.org 1 About Growth Forecasts Public release of growth forecasts in the Global Economic Prospects in June

More information

Capital Flows and Monetary Coordination. Rakesh Mohan Executive Director International Monetary Fund

Capital Flows and Monetary Coordination. Rakesh Mohan Executive Director International Monetary Fund Capital Flows and Monetary Coordination Rakesh Mohan Executive Director International Monetary Fund June 9, 214 Capital Flows: Historical Overview Pre-WW I Debt flows, mostly long-term Gold standard stable

More information

ShockwatchBulletin: Monitoring the impact of the euro zone crisis, China/India slow-down, and energy price shocks on lower-income countries

ShockwatchBulletin: Monitoring the impact of the euro zone crisis, China/India slow-down, and energy price shocks on lower-income countries ShockwatchBulletin: Monitoring the impact of the euro zone crisis, China/India slow-down, and energy price shocks on lower-income countries Isabella Massa DSA Conference London, 3 November 2012 Outline

More information

Global Economic Prospects: Spillovers amid Weak Growth. Select Publications from DECPG

Global Economic Prospects: Spillovers amid Weak Growth. Select Publications from DECPG // Global Economic Prospects: Spillovers amid Weak Growth February M. Ayhan Kose Disclaimer! The views presented here are those of the authors and do NOT necessarily reflect the views and policies of the

More information

Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges

Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Daniel A. Citrin Asia and Pacific Department, IMF April 3, 28 Global Financial Stability Map: risks have risen; conditions have deteriorated October 27

More information

Global growth fragile: The global economy is projected to grow at 3.5% in 2019 and 3.6% in 2020, 0.2% and 0.1% below October 2018 projections.

Global growth fragile: The global economy is projected to grow at 3.5% in 2019 and 3.6% in 2020, 0.2% and 0.1% below October 2018 projections. Monday January 21st 19 1:05pm International Prepared by: Ravi Kurjah, Senior Economic Analyst (Research & Analytics) ravi.kurjah@firstcitizenstt.com World Economic Outlook: A Weakening Global Expansion

More information

National Monetary Policy Forum. Chris Loewald, Head: Policy Development and Research 10 April 2016 Pretoria

National Monetary Policy Forum. Chris Loewald, Head: Policy Development and Research 10 April 2016 Pretoria National Monetary Policy Forum Chris Loewald, Head: Policy Development and Research 1 April 1 Pretoria In the April 17 MPR Executive summary & overview of the policy stance Overview of the world economy

More information

HIGHLIGHTS from CHAPTER 1: GLOBAL OUTLOOK DARKENING SKIES

HIGHLIGHTS from CHAPTER 1: GLOBAL OUTLOOK DARKENING SKIES Key Points HIGHLIGHTS from CHAPTER 1: GLOBAL OUTLOOK DARKENING SKIES Global growth has moderated, and it is expected to slow from 3 percent in 18 to.9 percent in. International trade and manufacturing

More information

Global Economic Prospects

Global Economic Prospects Global Economic Prospects Assuring growth over the medium term Andrew Burns DEC Prospects Group January 213 1 Despite better financial conditions, stronger growth remains elusive More than 4 years after

More information

Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class

Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to

More information

Global Economic Prospects. South Asia. June 2014 Andrew Burns

Global Economic Prospects. South Asia. June 2014 Andrew Burns Global Economic Prospects South Asia June 214 Andrew Burns Main Messages 214 Global forecast has been downgraded, mainly reflecting one-off factors Financing conditions have eased temporarily, but are

More information

Inflation Report. January March 2013

Inflation Report. January March 2013 January March 2013 May 8, 2013 Outline 1 External Conditions 2 Economic Activity in Mexico 3 Monetary Policy and Inflation Determinants 4 Forecasts and Balance of Risks 2 External Conditions Global Environment

More information

TRENDS, DYNAMICS, AND CHALLENGES OF CAPITAL FLOWS TO FRONTIER MARKETS

TRENDS, DYNAMICS, AND CHALLENGES OF CAPITAL FLOWS TO FRONTIER MARKETS HIGH-LEVEL CONFERENCE ON MANAGING CAPITAL FLOWS: LESSONS FROM EMERGING MARKETS FOR FRONTIER ECONOMIES MARCH 2, 2015, MAURITIUS TRENDS, DYNAMICS, AND CHALLENGES OF CAPITAL FLOWS TO FRONTIER MARKETS By Henry

More information

Global Economic Prospects: Update Global Recovery in Transition

Global Economic Prospects: Update Global Recovery in Transition Global Economic Prospects: Update Global Recovery in Transition April 2015 M. Ayhan Kose 1 Global Prospects: Three Questions 1. How have global economic conditions changed since December? Broadly as expected;

More information

International Monetary Fund

International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Deputy Director Research Department, IMF April 212 Towards Lasting Stability Global Economy Pulled Back from the Brink Policies Stepped

More information

Eighth UNCTAD Debt Management Conference

Eighth UNCTAD Debt Management Conference Eighth UNCTAD Debt Management Conference Geneva, 14-16 November 2011 Rising Debt of the Developed World and Implications for Developing Countries by Dr. Ellias Ngalande Executive Director, Macroeconomic

More information

Audited 2015 Full Year Result Presentation. Phillips Oduoza, Group Managing Director/CEO

Audited 2015 Full Year Result Presentation. Phillips Oduoza, Group Managing Director/CEO Audited 2015 Full Year Result Presentation Phillips Oduoza, Group Managing Director/CEO Good day everyone and thanks for joining this call. The year 2015 was characterised by macroeconomic uncertainties,

More information

Economic Outlook for Infrastructure Projects: Africa Perspective Mahendra Dedasaniya: Associate Director - Deloitte 7 November 2017

Economic Outlook for Infrastructure Projects: Africa Perspective Mahendra Dedasaniya: Associate Director - Deloitte 7 November 2017 Economic Outlook for Infrastructure Projects: Africa Perspective Mahendra Dedasaniya: Associate Director - Deloitte 7 November 2017 Global overview of infrastructure investment in emerging markets Global

More information

Leumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. May 8, The Finance Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.

Leumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. May 8, The Finance Division, Economics Department. leumiusa. Global Economics Monthly Review May 8, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report Key

More information

Review of the Economy. E.1 Global trends. January 2014

Review of the Economy. E.1 Global trends. January 2014 Export performance was robust during the third quarter, partly on account of the sharp depreciation in the exchange rate of the rupee and partly on account of a modest recovery in major advanced economies.

More information

Spain Economic Outlook Q FIRST QUARTER. Economic Outlook. Spain. Economic Outlook. Spain

Spain Economic Outlook Q FIRST QUARTER. Economic Outlook. Spain. Economic Outlook. Spain Economic Outlook FIRST QUARTER 2016 Spain Economic Outlook Spain The world economy will continue to grow, but at a slower pace than in the past and with more risks Spain's economy has started 2016 with

More information

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing The risks of renewed capital flight from emerging markets Recent episodes of capital flight from emerging markets have highlighted the vulnerability of a number

More information

UN: Global economy at great risk of falling into renewed recession Different policy approaches are needed to address continued jobs crisis

UN: Global economy at great risk of falling into renewed recession Different policy approaches are needed to address continued jobs crisis UN: Global economy at great risk of falling into renewed recession Different policy approaches are needed to address continued jobs crisis New York, 18 December 2012: Growth of the world economy has weakened

More information

World Economic Outlook Is the Tide Rising?

World Economic Outlook Is the Tide Rising? World Economic Outlook Is the Tide Rising? January 214 1 Global activity has strengthened. Further improvements expected. WEO Update in a nutshell Advanced economy growth has picked up Robust private demand

More information

UPDATE ON GLOBAL PROSPECTS AND POLICY CHALLENGES

UPDATE ON GLOBAL PROSPECTS AND POLICY CHALLENGES G R O U P O F T W E N T Y UPDATE ON GLOBAL PROSPECTS AND POLICY CHALLENGES G-20 Leaders Summit September 5 6, 2013 St. Petersburg Prepared by Staff of the I N T E R N A T I O N A L M O N E T A R Y F U

More information

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK January 2018 Research Department, International Monetary Fund

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK January 2018 Research Department, International Monetary Fund WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK January 2018 Research Department, International Monetary Fund Global activity has gained further momentum Global growth picked up further in 2017H2; outlook is for higher annual

More information

MID-TERM REVIEW OF THE 2014 MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT

MID-TERM REVIEW OF THE 2014 MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT MID-TERM REVIEW OF THE 2014 MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 The Mid-Term Review (MTR) of the 2014 Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) examines recent price developments and reviews key financial

More information

How the financial crisis is affecting Sub Saharan Africa. Sophie Chauvin and Marc Lantéri

How the financial crisis is affecting Sub Saharan Africa. Sophie Chauvin and Marc Lantéri How the financial crisis is affecting Sub Saharan Africa Sophie Chauvin and Marc Lantéri Introduction I. The crisis has been transmitted to SSA mainly through the impact of the global economic slowdown

More information

Financial System Stabilized, but Exit, Reform, and Fiscal Challenges Lie Ahead

Financial System Stabilized, but Exit, Reform, and Fiscal Challenges Lie Ahead January 21 Financial System Stabilized, but Exit, Reform, and Fiscal Challenges Lie Ahead Systemic risks have continued to subside as economic fundamentals have improved and substantial public support

More information

World Economic outlook

World Economic outlook Frontier s Strategy Note: 01/23/2014 World Economic outlook IMF has just released the World Economic Update on the 21st January 2015 and we are displaying the main points here. Even with the sharp oil

More information

ANNUAL ECONOMIC REPORT AJMAN 2015

ANNUAL ECONOMIC REPORT AJMAN 2015 ANNUAL ECONOMIC REPORT AJMAN C O N T E N T S Introduction Growth of the Global Economy Economic Growth in the United Arab Emirates Macro - Economic Growth in the Emirate of Ajman Gross Domestic Product

More information

MID-TERM REVIEW OF THE 2016 MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT

MID-TERM REVIEW OF THE 2016 MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT MID-TERM REVIEW OF THE 1 MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 The Mid-Term Review (MTR) of the 1 Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) examines price developments and the underlying causal factors in

More information

Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook Oil, Conflicts, and Transitions

Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook Oil, Conflicts, and Transitions Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook Oil, Conflicts, and Transitions May 5, 2015 Agenda Global Environment MENAP Oil Exporters MENAP Oil Importers Global growth remains moderate and uneven

More information

The Global Economy Modest Improvement

The Global Economy Modest Improvement Title line 1 Title line 2 The Global Economy Modest Improvement Name David Katsnelson, Director Title, date RISI Macroeconomic Service 3 June, 2015 1 Agenda 1. Global Snapshot 2. China 3. External Environment

More information

Latin America: the shadow of China

Latin America: the shadow of China Latin America: the shadow of China Juan Ruiz BBVA Research Chief Economist for South America Latin America Outlook Second Quarter Madrid, 13 May Latin America Outlook / May Key messages 1 2 3 4 5 The global

More information

Indonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

Indonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty Indonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty 2016 Article IV Consultation Report on Indonesia John G. Nelmes IMF Senior Resident Representative for Indonesia Academic

More information

Economic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute

Economic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute October 2017 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic

More information

OECD Interim Economic Projections Real GDP 1 Percentage change September 2015 Interim Projections. Outlook

OECD Interim Economic Projections Real GDP 1 Percentage change September 2015 Interim Projections. Outlook ass Interim Economic Outlook 16 September 2015 Puzzles and uncertainties Global growth prospects have weakened slightly and become less clear in recent months. World trade growth has stagnated and financial

More information

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH Augustine Faucher Chief Economist November 13, 2017 Senior Economic Advisor Chief Economist BETTER GROWTH THIS YEAR, AND AN UPGRADE TO 2018 World output,

More information

Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low Income Developing Countries

Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low Income Developing Countries Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low Income Developing Countries Min Zhu Deputy Managing Director Carnegie Endowment for International Peace February 18, 2016 Low income developing country group:

More information

SOUTH ASIA. Chapter 2. Recent developments

SOUTH ASIA. Chapter 2. Recent developments SOUTH ASIA GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS January 2014 Chapter 2 s GDP growth rose to an estimated 4.6 percent in 2013 from 4.2 percent in 2012, but was well below its average in the past decade, reflecting

More information

Reflections on the Global Economic Outlook

Reflections on the Global Economic Outlook Reflections on the Global Economic Outlook A presentation to the ACI-ICA World Congress October 2018 Mahmoud Mohieldin Senior Vice President World Bank Group @wbg2030 worldbank.org/sdgs Global Megatrends

More information

The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 2009

The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 2009 The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 29 Anoop Singh Asia and Pacific Department IMF 1 Five key questions

More information

Growth has peaked amidst escalating risks

Growth has peaked amidst escalating risks OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Growth has peaked amidst escalating risks 1 November 18 Ángel Gurría OECD Secretary-General Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/ ECOSCOPE

More information

Global Economic Prospects: A Fragile Recovery. June M. Ayhan Kose Four Questions

Global Economic Prospects: A Fragile Recovery. June M. Ayhan Kose Four Questions //7 Global Economic Prospects: A Fragile Recovery June 7 M. Ayhan Kose akose@worldbank.org Four Questions How is the health of the global economy? Recovery underway, broadly as expected How important is

More information

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK October 2017

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK October 2017 WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK October 2017 Andreas Bauer Sr Resident Representative @imf_delhi World Economic Outlook The big picture Global activity picked up further in 2017H1 the outlook is now for higher

More information

MANAGING CAPITAL FLOWS: LESSONS FROM EMERGING MARKETS FOR FRONTIER ECONOMIES: POLICY RESPONSES TO CAPITAL INFLOWS IN GHANA

MANAGING CAPITAL FLOWS: LESSONS FROM EMERGING MARKETS FOR FRONTIER ECONOMIES: POLICY RESPONSES TO CAPITAL INFLOWS IN GHANA MANAGING CAPITAL FLOWS: LESSONS FROM EMERGING MARKETS FOR FRONTIER ECONOMIES: POLICY RESPONSES TO CAPITAL INFLOWS IN GHANA Mr. Millison Narh First Deputy Governor Bank of Ghana OUTLINE Introduction Trends

More information

Key Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia. Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February

Key Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia. Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February Key Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February 2017 1 Global and Asia Outlook 2 Global activity strengthening, with rising dispersion and uncertainty

More information

Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook. November 12, 2013

Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook. November 12, 2013 Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook November 12, 213 Outline Global Outlook MENAP: Recent Developments, Outlook, and Risks Oil Exporters Oil Importers Key Takeaways 2 Global Outlook

More information

Recent Economic Developments and Monetary Policy in Mexico

Recent Economic Developments and Monetary Policy in Mexico Recent Economic Developments and Monetary Policy in Mexico Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* United States-Mexico Chamber of Commerce, Northeast Chapter New York City, 2 June 2017

More information

Quarterly Report. April June 2015

Quarterly Report. April June 2015 April June August 12, 1 1 Outline 1 2 Monetary Policy External Conditions 3 Economic Activity in Mexico Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks April-June 2 Monetary Policy Conduction in

More information

Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook

Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook Regional Economic Outlook Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya Lebanon Egypt Syria Iraq Iran Jordan Saudi Kuwait Arabia Bahrain Afghanistan Pakistan Mauritania Sudan Djibouti Qatar Yemen Oman United Arab Emirates

More information

Sub-Sahara Africa Economic Outlook

Sub-Sahara Africa Economic Outlook Sub-Sahara Africa Economic Outlook Nicholas Staines and Jean-Paul Mvogo International Monetary Fund Kinshasa, November 2015 nstaines@imf.org and mvogo@imf.org www.imf.org and www.imf.org/kinshasa Regional

More information

Jörg Decressin Deputy Director

Jörg Decressin Deputy Director World Economic Outlook October 13 Jörg Decressin Deputy Director Research Department, IMF 1 Outline Prospects for Advanced Economies Recent Developments and Implications for Emerging Economies Medium-term

More information

Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy and the MENA Region

Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy and the MENA Region Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy and the MENA Region Ministry of Finance Cairo October 25, 2011 Andreas Bauer Division i i Chief, t International Monetary Fund Key points: The global outlook

More information

eregionaloutlooksincharts

eregionaloutlooksincharts eregionaloutlooksincharts (clickonregion) EastAsiaandPaci c EuropeandCentralAsia LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean MiddleEastandNorthAfrica SouthAsia Sub-SaharanAfrica The Economic Outlook for East Asia and

More information

Three-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World

Three-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below

More information

COMCEC STRATEGY COMCEC FINANCIAL OUTLOOK. Cafer Biçer. 9 th Meeting of COMCEC Financial Cooperation Working Group

COMCEC STRATEGY COMCEC FINANCIAL OUTLOOK. Cafer Biçer. 9 th Meeting of COMCEC Financial Cooperation Working Group COMCEC FINANCIAL OUTLOOK Cafer Biçer 9 th Meeting of COMCEC Financial Cooperation Working Group October 26 th, 217 Ankara, Turkey OUTLINE Recent Global Economic and Financial Developments Financial Outlook

More information

Global macroeconomic performance and outlook

Global macroeconomic performance and outlook 2 Global macroeconomic performance and outlook Chapter 2 1 reviews recent developments and short-term prospects for the global economy and examines the main risks facing recovery from the Great Recession.

More information

Chikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund

Chikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund Chikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund (percent YOY) 8 6 Real GDP Growth ASSUMPTIONS A more gradual monetary policy normalization 4 2 21 211 212

More information

Sovereign Debt Managers Forum

Sovereign Debt Managers Forum Sovereign Debt Managers Forum Breakout Session 1: Market Dynamics in International Capital Markets for Sovereign Debt By C J P Siriwardena Assistant Governor Central Bank of Sri Lanka 04 December 2014

More information

In 2012, the Franc Zone countries posted particularly strong economic growth of 5.8% on average compared

In 2012, the Franc Zone countries posted particularly strong economic growth of 5.8% on average compared OVERVIEW In 01, the Franc Zone countries posted particularly strong economic growth of 5.8% on average compared with an average of.9% for Sub-Saharan Africa. The Franc Zone countries benefited from ongoing

More information

Improving the Investment Climate in Sub-Saharan Africa

Improving the Investment Climate in Sub-Saharan Africa REALIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR PROFITABLE INVESTMENT IN AFRICA High-Level Seminar organized by the IMF Institute and the Joint Africa Institute TUNIS,TUNISIA,FEBRUARY28 MARCH1,2006 Improving the Investment

More information

Monetary Policy Report

Monetary Policy Report CENTRAL BANK OF THE GAMBIA Monetary Policy Report November 20 The Central Bank of The Gambia Monetary Policy Report provides summary of reports presented at the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting. It entails

More information

Global Economic Prospects

Global Economic Prospects Global Economic Prospects Back from the Brink? Andrew Burns World Bank Prospects Group April 12, 212 1 Amid some signs of improvement, global recovery remains fragile First quarter of 212 has been generally

More information

GLOBAL ECONOMY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR ISRAEL

GLOBAL ECONOMY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR ISRAEL GLOBAL ECONOMY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR ISRAEL Aaron Institute for Economic Policy Annual Conference May 4, 217 Craig Beaumont, European Department, IMF Outline World economic outlook (WEO) Broader trends

More information

GLOBAL FIXED INCOME OVERVIEW

GLOBAL FIXED INCOME OVERVIEW 2016 Global Market Outlook Press Briefing GLOBAL FIXED INCOME OVERVIEW Edward A. Wiese, CFA, Head of Fixed Income November 18, 2015 Global Fixed Income Outlook: Summary Environment Developed market yields

More information

Regional Economic Outlook

Regional Economic Outlook Regional Economic Outlook Caucasus and Central Asia Azim Sadikov International Monetary Fund Resident Representative November 6, 2013 Outline Global Outlook CCA: Recent Developments, Outlook, and Risks

More information

As Good as it Gets Title of Goldman Sachs Research Paper, November 15, 2017

As Good as it Gets Title of Goldman Sachs Research Paper, November 15, 2017 2017 Review and 2018 Outlook As Good as it Gets Title of Goldman Sachs Research Paper, November 15, 2017 2017 was a remarkable year in many ways. Despite a myriad of reasons to worry about potential pitfalls,

More information

PERFORMANCE OF THE ECONOMY REPORT NOVEMBER 2017

PERFORMANCE OF THE ECONOMY REPORT NOVEMBER 2017 PERFORMANCE OF THE ECONOMY REPORT NOVEMBER 2017 MACROECONOMIC POLICY DEPARTMENT MINISTRY OF FINANCE, PLANNING AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT www.finance.go.ug Table of Contents SUMMARY... 2 REAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS...

More information

Global MT outlook: Will the crisis in emerging markets derail the recovery?

Global MT outlook: Will the crisis in emerging markets derail the recovery? Global MT outlook: Will the crisis in emerging markets derail the recovery? John Walker Chairman and Chief Economist jwalker@oxfordeconomics.com March 2014 Oxford Economics Oxford Economics is one of the

More information

Building Resilience in Fragile States: Experiences from Sub Saharan Africa. Mumtaz Hussain International Monetary Fund October 2017

Building Resilience in Fragile States: Experiences from Sub Saharan Africa. Mumtaz Hussain International Monetary Fund October 2017 Building Resilience in Fragile States: Experiences from Sub Saharan Africa Mumtaz Hussain International Monetary Fund October 2017 How Fragility has Changed since the 1990s? In early 1990s, 20 sub-saharan

More information

Macroeconomic projections for Assumptions from the external surrounding. Baseline macroeconomic scenario for

Macroeconomic projections for Assumptions from the external surrounding. Baseline macroeconomic scenario for Dimitar Bogov Governor November, Macroeconomic projections for -4 Assumptions from the external surrounding Baseline macroeconomic scenario for -4 Comparison with the previous projection In the period

More information

Irish Exporters Association Half Year 2013 Review -Export contraction impacting differing sectors -

Irish Exporters Association Half Year 2013 Review -Export contraction impacting differing sectors - Irish Exporters Association Half Year 2013 Review -Export contraction impacting differing sectors - -------------------------------- Published August 2013 0 Contents 1. Executive Summary - January to June

More information

Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents

Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Andrew Burns World Bank January 18, 2011 http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook Main messages Most developing countries have passed with flying colors

More information

Mexico s Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy

Mexico s Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy Mexico s Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* XP Securities Washington, DC, 13 October 2017 */ The opinions and views expressed in this document

More information

Mauritius Economy Update January 2015

Mauritius Economy Update January 2015 January 19, 2015 Economics Mauritius Economy Update January 2015 Overview - Mauritian economy has been witnessing a persistent moderation in growth since 2010 due to weak economic activity in Euro Zone,

More information

1.1. Low yield environment

1.1. Low yield environment 1. Key developments Overall, the macroeconomic outlook has deteriorated since June 215. Although many European countries continue to recover, economic growth still remains fragile reflecting high public

More information

Hamid Rashid, Ph.D. Chief Global Economic Monitoring Unit Development Policy Analysis Division UNDESA, New York

Hamid Rashid, Ph.D. Chief Global Economic Monitoring Unit Development Policy Analysis Division UNDESA, New York Hamid Rashid, Ph.D. Chief Global Economic Monitoring Unit Development Policy Analysis Division UNDESA, New York 1 Global macroeconomic trends Major headwinds Risks and uncertainties Policy questions and

More information

Japan s Economy: Monthly Review

Japan s Economy: Monthly Review Japan's Economy 18 July 214 (No. of pages: 8) Japanese report: 18 Jul 214 Japan s Economy: Monthly Review China s shadow banking problem requires continued monitoring Economic Intelligence Team Mitsumaru

More information

The real change in private inventories added 0.22 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.

The real change in private inventories added 0.22 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter. QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy bounced back in the second quarter of 2007, growing at the fastest pace in more than a year. According the final estimates released

More information

Macroeconomic Outlook November 2015

Macroeconomic Outlook November 2015 Macroeconomic Outlook November 2015 Philippe WAECHTER Head of Economic Research My twitter account @phil_waechter or http://twitter.com/phil_waechter My blog http://philippewaechter.en.nam.natixis.com

More information

Our goal is to provide a clear perspective on the global financial markets, as well as a logical framework to discuss them, thereby enabling

Our goal is to provide a clear perspective on the global financial markets, as well as a logical framework to discuss them, thereby enabling Our goal is to provide a clear perspective on the global financial markets, as well as a logical framework to discuss them, thereby enabling investors to recognize both the opportunities and risks that

More information

Key developments and outlook

Key developments and outlook 1/17 Key developments and outlook Economic growths in 2016 and 2017 remain close to the previous assessment. Better-than-expected merchandise exports and private consumption compensate for weaker-than-expected

More information

Presentation to Chief Executive Officers of Commercial and Microfinance Banks Dr. Patrick Njoroge Governor, Central Bank of Kenya

Presentation to Chief Executive Officers of Commercial and Microfinance Banks Dr. Patrick Njoroge Governor, Central Bank of Kenya Presentation to Chief Executive Officers of Commercial and Microfinance Banks Dr. Patrick Njoroge Governor, Central Bank of Kenya August 6, 2015 Outline 1. The Information basis for the MPC meeting 2.

More information

The Future of Mexican Monetary Policy

The Future of Mexican Monetary Policy The Future of Mexican Monetary Policy Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* XP Securities Mexico Summit Mexico City, 2 March 2017 */ The views expressed herein are strictly personal.

More information

Commercial Cards & Payments Leo Abruzzese October 2015 New York

Commercial Cards & Payments Leo Abruzzese October 2015 New York US, China and emerging markets: What s next for the global economy? Commercial Cards & Payments Leo Abruzzese October 2015 New York Overview Key points for 2015-16 Global economy struggling to gain traction

More information

Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook October 2011

Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook October 2011 Regional Economic Outlook October 211 Oil and gas exporters Oil and gas importers Kazakhstan Georgia Uzbekistan Kyrgyz Republic Armenia Azerbaijan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Overview Global outlook (CCA)

More information

Monthly Economic and Financial Developments April 2006

Monthly Economic and Financial Developments April 2006 Release Date: 30 May Monthly Economic and Financial Developments April In an effort to provide the public with more frequent information on its economic surveillance activities, the Central Bank has decided

More information

PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY. Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 2012

PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY. Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 2012 PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 1 Working paper, September 1. Kindly authorized by the Author.

More information

International M onetary Monetary Fund Macroec Macr oec nomic D evelopmen Deve lopmen s t a nd and Pr ospects

International M onetary Monetary Fund Macroec Macr oec nomic D evelopmen Deve lopmen s t a nd and Pr ospects International Monetary Fund Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low- Income Developing Countries ----------- The IMF and the 2030 Development Agenda Sean Nolan and Stefania Fabrizio Strategy, Policy,

More information

MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT JULY-DECEMBER 2004

MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT JULY-DECEMBER 2004 MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT JULY-DECEMBER 2004 Monetary Policy Statement (July-December 2004) Monetary Policy Statement July-December, 2004 Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy Stance Recent global

More information

International Monetary and Financial Committee

International Monetary and Financial Committee International Monetary and Financial Committee Thirty-Third Meeting April 16, 2016 IMFC Statement by Pravin Jamnadas Gordhan Minister of Finance, South Africa On behalf of Angola, Botswana, Burundi, Eritrea,

More information

April 2015 Fiscal Monitor

April 2015 Fiscal Monitor International Monetary Fund April 17, 2015 April 2015 Fiscal Monitor Now is the Time: Fiscal Policies for Sustainable Growth Xavier Debrun Deputy Chief, Fiscal Policy and Surveillance, Fiscal Affairs Department

More information

Fiscal Adjustment and Economic Diversification Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa

Fiscal Adjustment and Economic Diversification Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa Fiscal Adjustment and Economic Diversification Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa African Department International Monetary Fund November 16, 17 Outline 1. A modest growth recovery 2. Factors

More information