October Investor Relations / Investor Presentation

Transcription

1 October 2013 Investor Relations / Investor Presentation

2 Agenda 1 Turkish Economy 2 Turkish Banking Sector: An attractive investment opportunity 3 Garanti Overview and Key Investment Highlights 2

3 Moderate economic growth, downward risks still continue Investor Relations / Investor Presentation Slight Recovery Expected After the Slowdown in 2012 GDP Growth 5.3% 9.4% 8.4% 9.2% 8.8% 6.9% 4.7% 2.2% 3.2% 0.7% -4.8% E 17 th largest economy across the globe in 2012 A period of sustainable growth Rapid recovery in , slowdown in 2012, slight recovery expected in 2013 on the back of increasing domestic demand Much lower or even negative contribution from external demand in 2013 Inflationary Pressures Become More Apparent Benchmark Bond Rate Real Interest Inflation (CPI) 18.4% 27.2% 22.3% 9.3% 14.0% 7.7% 21.2% 16.6% 9.7% 8.4% 16.5% 10.1% 8.9% 7.1% 6.5% 6.4% 11.0% 9.5% 10.4% 6.2% 6.2% 7.3% Successful switch from hyperinflationary economy to price stability in the recent years More recent developments in currency basket and interest rate create upward risks on inflation Considering increasing inflationary pressures CBT follows tight liquidity policy and utilizes interest rate corridor more flexibly and actively E Inflation is expected to accelerate slightly to ~7% in 2013 Source: Turkish Statistical Institute, Undersecretariat of Treasury E:Garanti Estimate 3

4 Ongoing strength in fiscal balance while external balance widens Government Indebtness EU Defined Government Debt Stock 78% 74% 68% 60% 53% 47% 40% 40% 46% Maastricht criteria 60% 42% 39% 36% 35% Government indebtness far below Maastricht Criteria Government debt has started to decline just after the crisis and the downward trend is expected to continue in the coming years E Current Account Deficit* Current Account Balance/GDP E Strong domestic demand and relatively weak external demand led CAD/GDP ratio to reach its record level after the crisis. In line with the weakening domestic demand and strong export performance external balance improved throughout % -3.6% -4.5% -6.0% -5.8% -5.4% -2.0% -6.2% -9.7% -6.1% -6.9% Relatively higher growth in 2013 will result in slight expansion in CAD. Hence, macro prudential measures will likely remain in place for financial stability purposes. Source: Turkish Statistical Institute, Undersecretariat of Treasury E:Garanti Estimate * Figures including tourism revenue revisions announced by TurkStat, as of 2012 YE 4

5 Agenda 1 Turkish Economy 2 Turkish Banking Sector: An attractive investment opportunity 3 Garanti Overview and Key Investment Highlights 5

6 Real GDP Growth (Rebased) Investor Relations / Investor Presentation 1 Underpenetrated market with strong growth potential High and sustainable Real GDP growth EU27 LATAM CEEMEA TURKEY Penetration Ratios 4 337% 94% 58% 39% 117% 116% 53% 56% 13% 2 nd largest banking system in CEE 2 with an asset size of US$728bn H13 CAGR: 17% Well-regulated and strictly monitored Significant long-term growth potential backed by attractive demographics & underpenetrated market 59% of the 76mn population < age of 35 5 Loans/GDP: 56% vs. 116% in EU ROAE: ~16% 3 Total Assets / GDP Total Cus. Deposits / GDP Total Loans / GDP Turkey Turkey - 2Q13 Euro Area - 2Q13 1 Source: IMF. CEEMEA countries include Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa. LATAM Countries include Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru 2 Source: EBF Banking Sector Statistics Database 2011, ranking per total assets 3 BRSA Monthly data for commercial banks as of June US$/TL: Source: ECB, TurkStat, BRSA for commercial banks 5 Source: TurkStat 6

7 2 Highly liquid Deposit-heavy funding structure Deposits fund 56% of assets 1 Comfortable level of Loans/Deposits at 106% 1 Comfortable liquidity levels Liquidity Adequacy Ratios 2 well-above required levels Total Liquidity Ratio -- Weekly: 166%; Monthly: 120% FC Liquidity Ratio -- Weekly: 167%; Monthly: 121% Continuous access to international funding sources Banking Sector External Debt Roll-over Ratio Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 1 BRSA monthly data for commercial banks, as of June CBRT Financial Stability Report, May Liquidity Ratios are as of April

8 3 well-capitalized and underleveraged High solvency ratio Tier-I Ratio 1 (4Q12) 15.1% 13.5% 14.3% 13.3% Basel II CAR 2 : 15.6% (1H13) Turkey LATAM CEEMEA EU27 Low leverage Leverage 1 (4Q12) 14.1x 7.3x 7.9x 9.2x Turkey LATAM CEEMEA EU27 High ROAEs 2 :~16% (1H13) despite the low leverage 1 Source: Latest data from the IMF-FSI database. Represents country averages most of which are based on 4Q12 figures 2 BRSA monthly data as of June 2013, commercial banks only 8

9 Austria Turkey Belgium Netherlands Brazil UK Denmark S.Africa Czech Rep. Poland Russia Spain Portugal Italy Bulgaria Slovenia Hungary Romania Ireland Ukraine Greece Investor Relations / Investor Presentation 4 Standing out for its asset quality Non-performing loans/total gross loans Sustained sound asset quality No exposure to any toxic assets or problematic sovereign assets NPL Ratio 3 : 2.7% in Turkey (1H13) NPL ratio % 9.5% 8.5% 7.5% 6.5% 5.5% 4.5% 3.5% 2.5% 1.5% CEEMEA 10.2% EU % TURKEY 2.8% LATAM 2.8% High cash 74% 3 Established & prudent underwriting procedures 1 Source: Latest data from the IMF-FSI database, most of which are based on 4Q12 figures 2 Source: Latest data from the IMF-FSI database. Represents country averages most of which are based on 4Q12 figures 3 BRSA weekly data, as of June 28,

10 5 Differentiating itself even in a challenging environment Decelerating pace in GDP growth moderates lending growth Global macro picture remains as the highest risk factor Regulatory changes supporting financial stability; pressure profitability In this environment Turkish banking sector s High liquidity Strong capitalization Low leverage and Sound asset quality remain as its main strengths 10

11 Agenda 1 Turkish Economy 2 Turkish Banking Sector: An attractive investment opportunity 3 Garanti Overview and Key Investment Highlights 11

12 Garanti: Pre-eminent Banking Franchise Total Assets US$ 104 bn 1H13 Net Income US$ 1.1 bn ROAE 21% Basel II CAR 15% Branch network 977* # of customers 12.2 mn* 2 nd largest private bank by asset size Robust balance sheet highly liquid, well-capitalized & low risk #1 in ordinary banking income proven track record of sustainable banking income generation Focused on relationship banking with broad geographical coverage and wide multi-channel distribution network Most valuable company on the BIST by market capitalization Note: BRSA Consolidated Financials as of June 30, 2013 US$/ TL = as of June 30, 2013 * As of September 30,

13 Integrated financial services company focused on retail Investor Relations / Investor Presentation Consumer Payment Systems * Corporate Commercial SME ~10.7mn customers ** ~ 2,460 sales force 1 Affluent : 0.1% 3 Personal Financial Assets: >$250K Upscale: 4.5% 3 Personal Financial Assets: TL50K-$250K > 9.3mn credit cards ~ 7.2mn debit cards > 550K POS > 3,750 ATMs ~ 2.0K customers ** ~ 35 sales force 1 Major Turkish & multinational operations ~43.5K customers ** ~900 sales force 1,2 Annual sales >TL10 mn or Transaction Volume >TL600k ~ 1.5 mn customers ** ~ 2,120 sales force 1,2 Medium: 8% 3 Annual sales TL3 mn-tl10 mn Small: 24% 3 Annual sales TL500K-TL3 mn Mass Market: 95.4% 3 Personal Financial Assets: <TL50K Mass: 68% 3 Annual sales <TL500K Financial Subsidiaries Asset Contribution: 5.3% Asset Contribution: 1.6% Asset Contribution: 2.4% Asset Contribution: 0.0% Asset Contribution: 2.1% Asset Contribution: 0.4% Asset Contribution: 0.8% Asset Contribution: 0.0% * Payment Systems data as of September 2013 **As of September 30, Sales force is field only, data as of September 19, people within the sales force are responsible for serving both SME and Commercial banking 3 Per transaction volume, as of December 31,

14 State-of-the-art, proprietary IT platform -- fully aligned with the business Investor Relations / Investor Presentation Fully aligned IT processes & infrastructure with business strategy One of the largest private internal IT service providers in Turkey Most up-to-date IT infrastructure Tightly integrated and fully in-house developed, custom-fit IT solutions Uninterrupted transaction capability and infrastructure security Top down fast decision making and strong communication Centralized management reporting systems, enabling management to take timely actions Advanced CRM applications Paperless banking environment Reputation as innovator Continuous investment in technology since 90 s 14

15 Strong brand and reputation as a product and service innovator Investor Relations / Investor Presentation Interactive mobile-only platform In 1H 2013, 36 new products were launched 544 Products in total Mobile Banking Bonus Trink - credit card with contactless chip technology E-trader Application Cardless remittance via ATMs Golden Bonus Card First financial company in Turkey using call steering system in call center First cash management account in Turkey (the award - winning ELMA) First chip-based installment credit card loyalty program in Turkey (Bonus Card) First credit card offering air miles (Shop & Miles) First credit card with the concept of personalization (Flexi) First direct debit system in Turkey First web-based supplier financing system (Garanti Discount) in Turkey First inventory financing system in Turkey First gold financing system in Turkey First P2P mobile money transfer in Turkey (CepBank) First cash withdrawal with coins in Turkey First cardless bill payment via ATM in Turkey First NFC enabled SIM card Bonuslu Avea in the world First gold-saving credit card in the world (Golden Bonus Card) First-of-its-kind financial service leading the future of banking business and the revolution of conventional banking approach. (igaranti) 15

16 Extensive distribution network via strong branch coverage Investor Relations / Investor Presentation Number of Branches 2x M13 96% Geographical Coverage 99% GDP Coverage Presence in 78 Cities #1 in branch openings since 2006 >520 new branch additions 1.25x of its closest peer 60% was outside of Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir Note: Represents net branch openings figure are as of June Source:Turkish Banking Association 16

17 and effective utilization of digital channels (I/II) -- Targeted solutions for new customer segment: Digital Customers Total Bankable Population 15x Increase in the # of mobile internet users in last 2.5 years 2 Social Media platforms to shape new era in CRM -- Turkey is the 6 th biggest user of Facebook 1 40% * Digital customers Garanti targets this new segment via; Simple Fast Personalized Anytime anywhere accessible channels + + Omni Channel Strategy Providing seemless experience across all channels (branches, ATMs, Internet banking, Mobile Banking, Call Center) Garanti Bank Application Store ~3mn downloads World s first banking app for Windows 8 E-trader app: Leading trading platform in Turkey + 33% of customers use self-service channels + Product sales through ADCs GPL: 25% Time Deposit:13% *Source: McKinsey & Company Source: Socialbakers, last visit on February 21, Source: Information and Communications Technologies Authority, Quarterly Reports 17

18 and effective utilization of digital channels (II/II) -- 80% of financial transactions carried through digital channels Every 1 out of 3 internet transaction is via Garanti Internet Banking ~2.7 mn active users >170 type of transactions Serving non-bank customers through cardless transactions Cash deposits/withdrawals: 105% ATMs Online Banking Mobile Banking #1 in mobile banking >690k mobile banking users 45% market share in financial transactions ~60 mn customer contact/yr Centralized branch calls Call Center Omni Channel Strategy Providing seemless experience across all channels Social Media Special offerings a first-of-its-kind application in Europe Money transfer Consumer loan application via secure full form A new banking experience targeting socially active & connected customers Digital Wallet credit, debit, identity and loyalty cards under one roof Location based offers based on check-ins from foursquare First in Europe: speech recognition, speech command 18

19 Customer-centric growth strategy aligned with Improving Process & Service Technologically advanced banking systems Competent HR & dynamic sales force Extensive training Incentive schemes Operational efficiencies Superior employee productivity 99% centralization ratio Cross-sell Growing Revenues Outperform sector in selective products Leader in ordinary banking income generation * ROAE : 21% ; ROAA :2.4% Net F&C Income market share ~15% * -- highest in the sector Customer Delighting Customers Innovative customer oriented products and services Multi-channel CRM tools offering effective & timely solutions Integrated channel strategy Internet & Mobile Banking ATM Call Center Branch Network Adding New Customers Extensive branch network Tripled in the last 10 years 96% TR coverage To open branches in 2013 Customer Centricity Index Making a difference in customer experience with smart business processes * As of June 2013, Garanti figure is per bank-only data for fair comparison with sector Sector figure is based on BRSA monthly data for commercial banks 19

20 key strengths feed the differentiated business model Investor Relations / Investor Presentation Leading market shares across all lucrative products Impressive track record and attractive platform for future growth Sophisticated customer segmentation model Solid asset quality High quality, multi-channel distribution Business-integrated IT Product, service and technology innovator High quality employee base & proven management team Strong shareholder support -- Jointly controlled by Doğuş Group and BBVA 20

21 result in sustainable outperformance H13 Growth CAGR Assets (TL Bn) x 30% Market Share 6.6% 12.8% +6.2pps Rank (1) #4 #2 Loans (TL Bn) x 35% Market Share 8.1% 12.8% +4.7pps Rank (1) #5 #2 Customer Deposits (TL Bn) x 34% Market Share 5.0% 12.3% +7.3pps Rank (1) #5 #2 Shareholders Equity (TL Bn) x 33% Net Profit (TL Mn) 205 3,070 * 15x * 25% * ROAE H13 Avg. >20% Note: Figures are based on BRSA Bank-only financials for fair comparison. 1 Among private banks 2 Rankings are as of 1Q13. Market shares are as of 1H13, calculated based on bank-only financials. *2012 Bank only Net Income used in calculations for fair comparison 21

22 Disclaimer Statement Türkiye Garanti Bankasi A.Ş. (the TGB ) has prepared this presentation document (the Document ) thereto for the sole purposes of providing information which include forward looking projections and statements relating to the TGB (the Information ). No representation or warranty is made by TGB for the accuracy or completeness of the Information contained herein. The Information is subject to change without any notice. Neither the Document nor the Information can construe any investment advise, or an offer to buy or sell TGB shares. This Document and/or the Information cannot be copied, disclosed or distributed to any person other than the person to whom the Document and/or Information delivered or sent by TGB or who required a copy of the same from the TGB. TGB expressly disclaims any and all liability for any statements including any forward looking projections and statements, expressed, implied, contained herein, or for any omissions from Information or any other written or oral communication transmitted or made available. 22

23 Investor Relations Levent Nispetiye Mah. Aytar Cad. No:2 Beşiktaş Istanbul Turkey Tel: +90 (212) Fax: +90 (212) Internet: /garantibankasi 23