Economy and Banking Sector in Turkey. İstanbul June, 2012

Transcription

1 Economy and Banking Sector in Turkey İstanbul June, 2012

2 Content Economic Outlook Banking sector Near-term expectations Turkish economy and banking sector 1

3 Turkish economy and banking sector 2 Economic Outlook

4 Member of G-20 Turkey has a functioning market economy, capital flows are free and there is no exchange rate restriction for residents and non-residents The Central Bank has been implementing a formal inflation-targeting framework under a floating exchange rate regime Sovereign credit rating, currently is BB with stable comment Long term average growth rate is about 4.5 percent. GDP is about USD 770 billion, 17th largest in the world, 6th in the Europe; 2nd in the region after Russia. Turkish economy and banking sector 3

5 Open economy and young population Income per capita is around USD 10,500 Services and industry have shares of 60 percent and 30 percent, respectively. Foreign trade volume to GDP is about 48 percent. Almost half of Turkey's total trade is with the EU. In terms of total assets of banks, Turkey is ranked the 15th in the EU. Population is about 74 million in which the group of age has a share of 65 percent. Unemployment rate is about 9 percent, recently. Turkish economy and banking sector 4

6 High and rather stable growth 10 GDP growth (%) avg pt 13 pt 14 pt Turkish economy and banking sector 5

7 Cost of growth (lack of savings) Private Public Total Turkish economy and banking sector 6

8 Lower Government external debt 60 External debt (As % of Gdp) Total Government Private Turkish economy and banking sector 7

9 TL began to apriciate in 2012 again, following a rapid depreciation in Real exchange rate (2003=100) Turkish economy and banking sector 8

10 Less crowding out, more loans to private sector Public sector domestic debt and loans (as % of Gdp) Public sector debt Loans (right) Turkish economy and banking sector 9

11 Turkish economy and banking sector 10 Banking sector

12 Financial sector; supervision and size Financial institutions Authorities Share in total assets* (%) Banks BRSA 88 Leasing companies BRSA 1 Factoring BRSA 1 Consumer finance companies BRSA 1 Capital market companies Mutual funds CMB 2 Securities dealer CMB 1 Real estate investment funds CMB 1 Pension funds CMB 1 Insurance companies Treasury 3 Payment system Central B. * As of December 2011 Source: BRSA Turkish economy and banking sector 11

13 Banks by functions Banks in Turkey (As of December 2011) Number of banks Share in total assets (%) Deposit banks State-owned 4 28 Private Foreign-owned* Development and investment banks 12 3 Participation banks 4 8 Total *Having more than 50% share in shareholders equity Turkish economy and banking sector 12

14 Foreign owned-banks share Ownership structure (%) Free flot Non residents' share* Non residents' share* in shareholders' equity in total assets ,4 3, ,1 23,9 23, ,9 24,7 24,8 *weighted share in non-public shares Turkish economy and banking sector 13

15 Number of Branches and Employees (Continuous organic growth) Branch (left axis) Employee Turkish economy and banking sector 14

16 The largest ten account for 87% of total assets Concentration ratio* % Change Largest five** Assets Deposits Loans Largest ten** Assets Deposits Loans * Deposit, investment and development banks ** According to total assets Turkish economy and banking sector 15

17 Rapid growth in banking sector Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar Total assets (left axis) Total assets growth rate Turkish economy and banking sector 16

18 Assets Million TL April 12 Annual change (prc) TL FX Total Liquid assets 53,033 96, , Securities 237,616 44, ,588 3 Loans and Non Performing Loans (NPLs) (Net) 484, , , Loans 481, , , NPLs (Net) 3, , a) NPLs 18, ,580 5 b) NPL provision (-) 14, ,833-2 Other assets 33,638 2,283 35, Total assets 854, ,005 1,197, Turkish economy and banking sector 17

19 Liabilities Million TL April 12 Annual change (prc) TL FX Total Deposit 437, , , Non deposit funds 124, , , Funds borrowed 30, , , Funds provided by repo agreements 70,528 28,639 99, Shareholder's equity 147, , Current year income (loss) 7, , Other liabilities 57, , Total liabilities 774, ,121 1,197, Turkish economy and banking sector 18

20 Loans / deposit ratio (percent) Turkish economy and banking sector 19

21 Strong lending growth 45 Total loans (As fixed rates of 2010 December, y-o-y % chg) Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Total TL FX Turkish economy and banking sector 20

22 Loan distribution Million TL Loans NPL Total Share (percent) Total 734,183 19, , Consumer 236,990 7, , Credit Cards 63,245 3,774 67, Housing 76, , Automobile 7, , Others 90,257 2,661 92, Corporate 497,193 12, , SME 164,547 5, , Turkish economy and banking sector 21

23 Continuous increase in credit & debit cards April 11 April 12 Annual change (prc) Total credit cards (thousand) 48,344 52,434 8 Total debit cards (thousand) 73,062 85, POS (thousand) 1, 879 2,003 7 ATM 28,618 33, Transaction volume of credit cards (billion TL)* Transaction volume of debit cards (billion TL)* *Annualized. Turkish economy and banking sector 22

24 NPLs have remanied at a rather low level % 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Consumer Corporate Total Turkish economy and banking sector 23

25 Stronger shareholders equity; enabled the banking sector to change its risk structure Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar Shareholders' Equity (billion TL) CAR (right axis) Turkish economy and banking sector 24

26 Income statement (Annulized) Million TL 2012/IV 2011/IV Annual change Annual change (prc) Interest income 94,023 74,046 19, Interest expenditure 52,998 38,740 14, Net interest income (expenditure) 41,024 35,306 5, Non interest income 21,764 21, Fees and commission income (net) Banking services income 13,350 11,336 2, Other non interest income 8,930 9, Operasional expenses 33,166 28,031 5, Other non interest income 11,902 10,663 1, Provisions 5,913 3,411 2, Non interest income (net) -11,402-6,683-4, Tax provision 5,454 4, Current year net profit (loss) 19,699 19, Turkish economy and banking sector 25

27 Annualized profit and ROE Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 17,0 16,5 16,0 15,5 15,0 14,5 14,0 13,5 13,0 Annualized profit (million TL, left axis) ROE (percent) Turkish economy and banking sector 26

28 Remarkable resilience to global crisis 1. Reasons No high risky assets Small investments in housing financing Well-diversified lending portfolio, mainly to private sector and G-securities High-capital adequacy level with 16% High-liquidity level Efficent supervision Turkish economy and banking sector 27

29 Remarkable resilience to global crisis 2. Results No change in deposit-quaranty limit, current level is TL 50,000 No financial support form the Government Banking sector has kept financing economic activities Decrease in NPLs following a slight rise in 2009 The years of 2009, 2010, 2011; became most profitable years (in the last decade) Turkish economy and banking sector 28

30 Turkey and G-20 countries Capital adequacy ratio (percent) ROE (average, percent) NPL / Loans (percent) 1. Brasil Argentina Canada Turkey Canada Argentina Australia Korea S.Africa Australia Turkey Mexico Indonesia Turkey 2.7 Source: IMF, Financial Soundness Indicators, May 2012 Turkish economy and banking sector 29

31 High growth potantial Financial sector Selected indicators As % of GDP 2010 World EMs TR Bank assets Capital markets Market capitilization Debt securities Public Private Total Source: IMF, Global Financial Stability Report, Spt 2011 Turkish economy and banking sector 30

32 Expectations for the near future Larger and deeper financial markets (Capital Markets Law) Lengthening the maturities of deposits and borrowing (issuing of bonds and measures to encourage lengthening the maturity of deposits) Higher lending to private sector (lower psbr) Intense competition in retail business Decline in interest margin with widening business activity Positive climate for foreign investors Turkish economy and banking sector 31

33 Thank you. Emre Alpan İnan: Şirin Mutlutürk: Turkish economy and banking sector 32