Turkish economy and banking sector

Transcription

1 Turkish economy and banking sector Dr. Ekrem Keskin 36th Meeting of the EU-Turkey JCC July 2017 Brussels

2 Main features of the economy Functioning market economy Free capital flows Free floating exchange rate regime Member of G-20; ranked the 13th in terms of Gdp on PPP Population; 78 million, ranked the 2nd after Germany in the EU Services with 60 percent and industry with 30 percent Ba1 with stable outlook by Moodys ; BB with stable outlook by S&P; BBB with negative outlook by FITCH ESC, July

3 Ranked 13th largest in the world Source: Undersecretary of Trasury ESC, July

4 6th largest in Europe Source: Undersecretary of Trasury ESC, July

5 Youngest population breakdown Source: Undersecretary of Trasury ESC, July

6 Stable and high growth performance Gdp growth (With chained index, %) ( ESC, July

7 Faster growth compared to EU Gdp growth (%) TR EU ESC, July

8 Income tripled Gdp (USD billion) Income per capita (USD) 10,500 8,915 3, ESC, July

9 Strong fiscal stability Public sector borrowing requirements (As % of Gdp) Maastricht criteria Public sector debt (As % of Gdp) Maastricht criteria March 2017 ESC, July

10 Still fight for price stability 30 Inflation (Annual % chg) June 2017 Expc for 2017 ESC, July

11 High c/a deficit and capital inflows Current account deficit (Annual average, as % of Gdp) March 2017 Net Capital flows (Annual average, USD billion) ESC, July

12 Almost half of foreign trade with EU Foreign trade Total As % of Gdp EU Share Billion Billion % Export Import Trade Volume ESC, July

13 Unemployment rate hovers at 11 percent Labour force % Total Male Female Labour force participation rate Unemployment rate Youth (15-24) Employment by sectors Agriculture Non-agriculture ESC, July

14 Strong financial stability Resilience during global crisis; no single support from the Government Healthy, well regulated and efficently supervised Fully compliant with Basel III Supervisory and regulatory requirements are equivalent to the European Union's regime, announced by EU Commission Well-diversified lending portfolio High-capital adequacy level Better risk management Innovative in products and services ESC, July

15 Rapid growth in banking sector Total assets (USD billion) March 2017 Total assets (As % of Gdp) March 2017 ESC, July

16 Increased finance to private sector 70 Total loans (As % of Gdp) March 2017 Total loans/total assets (%) March 2017 ESC, July

17 Well diversified loan portfolio and high loan quality Breakdown of loans (%) 2002 June 2017 Corporates Large companies 52 SMS 24 Consumers Housing 1 9 Automobiles 1 0 Consuming 3 9 Credit cards 9 4 Total NPLs/Loans (%) June 2017 ESC, July

18 High capital to support growth Capital adequacy (%) May 2017 Tier 1 (%) May 2017 ESC, July

19 Non-residents interest Non-residents' share in total assets (%) (shares in Borsa İstanbul not included) 25,8 26,3 3, March 2017 ESC, July

20 Big gap; narrowing? EU-Turkey Selected indicators, 2016 EU Turkey Income per Capita (euro) Assets per Capita (euro) Loans to Gdp (percentage) Assets per Capita 9,2 18,3 Income per Capita 3,8 3, ESC, July

21 SWOT analysis of Turkish economy Strengths Weakness High growth potantial Complaince with international standarts Open to the global trade Young population Institutional framework Fiscal stability Healty and strong banking sector Low income per capita High level of inflation High savings gap High level of unempleyment Small scale of financial sector Decline in credit ratings Opportunities Threats Government commitments for reforms Recovery in the EU economy Interest from international investors Infrastructure investments Peace in the region Regional hub Relationship with the EU Global imbalances Stagflation in the EU economy Regional political risks Terorism ESC, July

22 Growth and macro balance Expectations in the near future % Gdp growth Inflation Public sector debt to Gdp Current account deficit to Gdp Source: Government s programme ESC, July

23 Reliable partner Turkey is a reliable and strong partner in international economic cooperation. Turkey carries very positive features in many aspects with her economic structure, economic policies, markets, approach to global norms and standards, infrastructure, rules and institutions regulating the social and economic life in general. ESC, July

24 Thank you. Ekrem Keskin ESC, July