Level (10 6 euros) rate of change. rate of change
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1 Table 1a. Macroeconomic prospects Level (10 6 euros) 1. Real GDP 1 B1*g ,3-1,6-3,0 0,6 2,0 2,4 2,8 2. Nominal GDP B1*g ,9-1,0-2,1 2,1 3,3 4,0 4,3 Components of real GDP 3. Private Consumption expenditure P ,7-3,9-6,3-0,7 0,5 1,0 1,4 4. Government Consumption expenditure P ,7-3,9-3,2-2,9-2,6-2,0-1,6 5. Gross fixed capital formation P ,9-11,4-9,8-0,6 3,1 3,7 3,9 6. Changes in inventories and net acquisition of valuables () P.52 + P ,4-0,7-0,8-0,6-0,3-0,3-0,3 7. Exports of goods and services P ,5 7,4 3,4 5,6 6,4 6,8 6,9 8. Imports of goods and services P ,5-5,5-6,4 1,6 2,6 3,6 4,0 Contributions to real GDP growth 9. Final domestic demand - -6,1-6,7-1,0 0,4 0,9 1,3 10. Changes in inventories and net acquisition of valuables P.52 + P ,5-0,1 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 11. External balance of goods and B.11-4,4 3,7 1,5 1,6 1,4 1,4 services 1 Real GDP is measured at previous year prices. Table 1b. Price developments 1. GDP deflator 0,7 0,9 1,5 1,3 1,6 1,5 2. Private consumption deflator 3,6 3,2 1,3 1,1 1,2 1,2 3. HICP 3,6 3,2 1,3 1,1 1,2 1,2 6. Export price deflator (goods and services) 7. Import price deflator (goods and services) ,5 3,0 1,5 1,1 1,3 1,0 8,0 4,3 1,4 0,7 1,1 0,7 Table 1c. Labour market developments Level Employment, persons ,5-2,8-2,5 0,6 1,5 1,1 1,4 2. Employment, hours worked ,8-2,8-2,5 0,6 1,5 1,1 1,4 2. Unemployment rate (%) 2 12,7 14,5 14,1 13,2 12,7 12,1 4. Labour productivity, persons 3 26,7 1,2-0,5 0,0 0,5 1,2 1,4 5. Labour productivity, hours worked 5 27,5 1,2-0,5 0,0 0,5 1,2 1,4 6. Compensation of employees D ,9-2,3-5,4 1,3 2,5 2,6 2,9 7. Compensation per employee 20,3 0,5-3,0 0,7 0,9 1,3 1,5 1 Occupied population, domestic concept national accounts definition. 2 Harmonised definition, Eurostat; levels. 3 Real GDP per person employed. Table 1d. Sectoral balances ESA Code 1. Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world B.9-5,1-2,5-0,4 1,3 3,1 4,9 of which: - Balance on goods and services -3,8-0,6 1,0 2,7 4,1 5,5 - Balance of primary incomes and transfers -2,6-3,4-3,0-2,6-2,2-1,7 - Capital account 1,4 1,5 1,6 1,3 1,2 1,2 2. Net lending/borrowing of the private sector 3. Net lending/borrowing of general government B.9-0,8 2,1 2,6 3,1 4,1 5,4 EDP B.9-4,2-4,5-3,0-1,8-1,0-0,5 Statistical discrepancy 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
2 Table 2a. General government budgetary prospects Net lending (EDP B.9) by sub-sector Level 1. General government S ,2-4,5-3,0-1,8-1,0-0,5 2. Central government S ,1-4,7-3,2-2,4-1,9-1,5 3. Local government S ,4 0,1 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,3 4. Social security funds S ,3 0,1 0,0 0,4 0,6 0,8 General government (S13) 5. Total revenue TR ,7 42,9 42,9 42,8 42,7 42,5 6. Total expenditure TE ,9 47,5 45,9 44,6 43,8 43,0 7. Net lending/borrowing EDP B ,2-4,5-3,0-1,8-1,0-0,5 8. Interest expenditure EDP D ,9 4,7 4,6 4,7 4,8 4,6 9. Primary balance ,4 0,2 1,6 2,9 3,7 4,1 10. One-off and other temporary measures Selected components of revenue ,2 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 11. Total taxes (11=11a+11b+11c) ,5 24,7 24,8 24,8 24,9 24,9 11a. Taxes on production and imports D ,6 14,8 14,8 14,8 14,8 14,8 11b. Current taxes on income, wealth, etc D ,9 9,9 9,9 10,0 10,1 10,2 11c. Capital taxes D ,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 12. Social contributions D ,3 12,0 11,9 11,8 11,6 11,5 13. Property income D ,6 0,4 0,6 0,5 0,5 0,4 14. Other (14=15-( )) ,2 5,8 5,6 5,7 5,7 5,7 15=5. Total revenue TR ,7 42,9 42,9 42,8 42,7 42,5 p.m.: Tax burden (a) (D.2+D.5+D.61+D. 91-D.995) Selected components of expenditure 16. Compensation of employees + intermediate consumption ,9 33,9 33,9 34,0 34,0 34,0 D.1+P ,9 14,6 13,8 13,3 13,0 12,7 16a. Compensation of employees D ,3 10,1 9,7 9,2 9,0 8,8 16b. Intermediate consumption P ,6 4,5 4,1 4,1 4,0 3,9 17. Social payments (17=17a+17b) ,1 21,8 21,6 21,2 20,9 20,5 17a. Social transfers in kind supplied via market producers D.6311, D.63121, D ,7 4,7 4,5 4,3 4,1 4,0 17b. Social transfers other than in kind D ,4 17,2 17,1 16,9 16,8 16,5 18.=8. Interest expenditure EDP D ,9 4,7 4,6 4,7 4,8 4,6 19. Subsidies D ,7 1,0 1,0 0,9 0,9 0,9 20. Gross fixed capital formation P ,6 2,1 1,6 1,4 1,3 1,3 21. Other (21=22-( )) ,7 3,3 3,3 3,1 2,9 3,0 22=6. Total expenditure TE ,9 47,5 45,9 44,6 43,8 43,0 p.m.: Government consumption (nominal) P ,1 18,6 17,6 16,8 16,3 15,8 Table 2b. Breakdown of revenue 2011 Level 1. Total revenue at und policies ,6 41,1 42,5 42,8 42,7 42,5 2. Discretionary revenue measures 3564,0 2,1 1,8 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 Table 2c. Expenditure to be excluded from expenditure benchmark Expenditure on EU programmes fully matched by EU funds revenue Level 2. Expenditure fully matched by mandated revenues increases 3. Non-discretionary s in unemployment benefit expenditure
3 Table 3. General government expenditure by function COFOG Code General public services 1 7,9 2. Defence 2 1,4 3. Public order and safety 3 2,0 4. Economic affairs 4 5,3 5. Environmental protection 5 0,7 6. Housing and community amenities 6 0,6 7. Health 7 7,3 8. Recreation, culture and religion 8 1,2 9. Education 9 7,0 10. Social protection 10 18,0 11. Total expenditure (= item 7=26 in Table 2) TE 51,4 Table 4. General government debt developments 1. Gross debt 107,8 113,1 115,7 113,4 109,5 103,9 2. Change in gross debt ratio 14,4 5,4 2,5-2,3-3,9-5,6 Contributions to s in gross debt 3. Primary balance 0,4-0,2-1,6-2,9-3,7-4,1 4. Interest expenditure 3,9 4,7 4,6 4,7 4,8 4,6 5. Stock-flow adjustment 9,3-1,5 1,8-0,3-0,6-1,6 - Differences between cash and accruals - Net accumulation of financial assets 8,7-1,5 1,8-0,3-0,6-1,6 of which: - privatisation proceeds - Valuation effects and other 0,0 2,4 0,6 0,0 0,0 0,0 p.m. implicit interest rate on debt 4,1 4,3 4,2 4,2 4,4 4,4 Other relevant variables 6. Liquid financial assets 43,4 41,9 43,7 43,4 42,8 41,2 7. Net financial debt (7=1-6) 64,4 71,3 72,0 70,0 66,8 62,7 8. Debt amortization (existing bonds) since the end of the previous year (1) 23,8 17,5 5,7 8,0 7,0 9. Percentage of debt denominated in foreigner currency (2) 6,00% 8,36% 9,96% 10,89% 9,71% 10. Average maturity (3) 6,1 6, ) Only State Debt figures Table 5. Cyclical developments For Debt with maturity inferior to one year what is included is debt outstanding at the end of 2) previous year, therefore after 2012 only includes debt with maturity above one year "Percentage of debt denominated in foreign currency" is the share of foreign-currency debt in 3) total debt after swaps 1. Real GDP growth (%) -1,6-3,0 0,6 2,0 2,4 2,8 2. Net lending of general government EDP B.9-4,2-4,5-3,0-1,8-1,0-0,5 3. Interest expenditure EDP D.41 3,9 4,7 4,6 4,7 4,8 4,6 4. One-off and other temporary measures 0,7 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 5. Potential GDP growth (%) -0,1-0,4 0,4 0,8 1,1 1,5 contributions: - labour -0,6-0,7-0,2-0,1-0,1 0,1 - capital -0,1-0,4-0,4-0,2-0,1 0,0 - total factor productivity 0,6 0,7 0,9 1,1 1,3 1,5 6. Output gap -1,1-3,7-3,5-2,4-1,1 0,0 7. Cyclical budgetary component -0,5-1,7-1,6-1,1-0,5 0,0 8. Cyclically-adjusted balance (2-7) -3,7-2,9-1,4-0,7-0,5-0,5 9. Cyclically-adjusted primary balance (8+3) 0,1 1,9 3,2 4,0 4,2 4,1 10. Structural balance (8-4) -4,4-3,3-1,4-0,7-0,5-0,5
4 Table 6. Divergence from previous update Real GDP growth (%) Previous update 0,9 1,3 1,7 : : : Current update -1,6-3,0 0,6 2,0 2,4 2,8 Difference -2,5-4,3-1,2 : : : General government net lending (% of GDP) EDP B.9 Previous update -6,6-4,6-2,8 : : : Current update -4,2-4,5-3,0-1,8-1,0-0,5 Difference 2,3 0,1-0,2 : : : General government gross debt (% of GDP) Previous update 89,4 89,4 89,4 : : : Current update 107,8 113,1 115,7 113,4 109,5 103,9 Difference 18,3 23,7 26,2 : : : Table 7a. Long-term sustainability of public finances Total expenditure Of which: age-related expenditures 24,8 24,5 24,3 24,7 25,3 25,3 Pension expenditure 10,9 12,5 13,5 13,2 13,1 13,1 12,7 Social Security pension 6,9 8,0 9,1 9,3 10,3 11,5 12,0 Old-age and early pensions 5,1 6,1 7,2 7,5 8,6 9,8 10,3 Other pensions (disability, survivors) 1,8 1,9 2,0 1,8 1,7 1,7 1,7 Civil servants subsystem (CGA) 3,9 4,6 4,4 3,9 2,8 1,6 0,7 Health care 7,2 6,7 7,2 7,7 8,1 8,3 Long-term care 0,3 0,3 0,4 0,4 0,5 0,6 Education expenditure 4,7 3,9 3,5 3,5 3,6 3,7 Other demographic-related expenditures (a) 1,2 1,3 1,0 0,9 0,8 0,8 Interest expenditure Total revenue Of which: property income of which: from pensions contributions (or social contributions if appropriate) 10,7 10,9 10,6 9,3 8,8 8,6 8,6 Pension reserve fund assets Of which: consolidated public pension fund assets (assets other than government liabilities) Systemic pension reform (1) Social contributions diverted to mandatory private scheme Pension expenditure paid by mandatory private scheme Assumptions (2) Labour productivity growth 1,8 0,9 2,0 2,0 1,8 1,5 Real GDP growth 1,3 1,5 1,9 1,3 1,1 1,1 Participation rate males (aged 20-64) 83,9 84,2 84,0 83,6 83,9 83,6 Participation rates females (aged 20-64) 74,9 78,5 80,3 80,5 81,0 80,7 Total participation rates (aged 20-64) 79,4 81,3 82,1 82,1 82,5 82,1 Unemployment rate (15_64) 11,4 11,6 8,0 7,5 7,3 7,3 Population aged 65+ over total population 18,0 20,7 24,2 28,2 31,4 32,0 (1) Refer to pension reforms that introduce a multi-pilar system that includes a mandatory fully funded pillar. (2) Assumptions underlying the Ageing Report (a) Expenditure on unemployment benefits. Table 7b. Contingent liabilities Public guarantees 7,6 3,3 of which: linked to the financial sector 6,9 3,2
5 Table 8. Basic assumptions Short-term interest rate (annual average) Long-term interest rate (annual average) 1,4 0,8 0,9 0,9 0,9 0,9 6,4 5,0 5,0 5,0 4,9 4,5 USD/ ex rate (annual average) 1,39 1,30 1,30 1,30 1,30 1,30 Nominal effective ex rate (annual ) 0,0-0,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 World excluding EU, GDP growth 4,6 4,2 4,2 5,6 5,6 5,6 EU GDP growth 1,9 0,1 1,4 1,4 1,4 1,4 Growth of relevant foreign markets 5,1 2,1 4,7 5,4 5,4 5,4 World import volumes, excluding EU 7,7 4,9 6,0 6,0 6,0 6,0 Oil prices, (Brent, USD/barrel) 110,8 119,8 114,2 106,6 100,3 96,3
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