Gross domestic product, 2008 (Preliminary estimation)

Transcription

1 Internet publication Hungarian September 2009 Central Statistical Office ISBN Gross domestic product, 2008 (Preliminary estimation) Contents Summary...2 Tables...4 Methodological notes Glossary on terms...20 Methodological improvements introduced with the second estimate for Compilation of homogeneous time series of national accounts back to Explanations of symbols Contact detailes

2 Summary 1 In 2008, Hungary s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was billion HUF at current prices. At the prices of the previous year, this means a 0.6% growth in 2008 compared to the previous year. In per capita terms, the gross domestic product was million HUF. It corresponds to at purchasing power parity, that is 63 % of the average of the EU-27. In 2008, the value added of the national economy grew by 0.9 % at basic prices compared to the preceding year. The largest growth, 2.2% was observed in the nonfinancial corporations sector. Gross value added of households also rose more rapidly than the average, by 1.1% at constant prices. At the same time the performance of the rest of the sectors decreased (general government by 3.0, financial corporations by 2.8 and non-profit institutions serving households by 1.5 %). The performance of branches producing goods (agriculture, industry, construction) rose more rapidly than the average, by 6.2%. The expansion arose completely from the 54.3% increase of the value added of agriculture. Last year s lower performance and this year s outstandingly favourable harvest in crop production were behind such an increase in agricultural production. The performance of industry increased by 0.4%. This increase below the total economy s average is due to the stagnation of the export oriented manufacturing at annual level. In the first half of the year manufacturing still performed well, but it started declining from the second half of the year, because of the economic crisis. Out of the three greatest subsections, only the manufacture of transport equipment exceeded the level of last year, while the production of electrical and optical equipment stagnated, and a decrease was observed in the manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco. The value added of construction decreased by 3.6% mainly due to the fall in building construction (especially in the construction of industrial buildings, warehouses and office buildings). The economic downturn is reflected in the performance of the services, too; the gross value added fell by 1.8%. In the field of trade there was a 2.5% decrease, in line with the drop in the households consumption. A decline was detected in the field of hotels and restaurants (2.1%), while the performance of transport, storage and communications grew by 0.8%. Value added of financial intermediation industry dropped by 3.0 % on one hand as a result of declining service activities of credit institutions (for example in case of new credit granting) and on the other hand as a result of moderate demand for financial and insurance services. In addition, growth rate of insurance claims and payments for services increased remarkably higher than the growth rate of the insurance premiums in In the branch of real estate activities the gross value added decreased by 1.1%, while in the field of public administration and defence it raised by 1.4%. The gross value added of the education industry decreased by 5.4%, of which the performance of public institutes decreased slightly, while that of the other sectors fell more significantly. The change is the opposite in healthcare, where the gross value added in the government sector decreased 1 Data includes the results of the methodological improvements introduced in 2009 and the backcasting (in the case of homogeneous long time series)

3 Gross domestic product (Preliminary estimation) significantly, which shows the continuously growing share of private sector in the field of healthcare activities. Altogether, value added of healthcare decreased by 4.7% in The sharpest fall was recorded in the field of other service activities (-5.8%) - due to the decline of the recreational, cultural and sporting activities. On the expenditure side of gross domestic product, the domestic consumption of households in Hungary (including also the consumption of non-residents) decreased by 0.7%. The consumption of non-residents in Hungary increased by far less than the still dinamically increasing consumption of resident households abroad. The latter includes the consumption of Hungarians staying abroad (for example, to work abroad) for less than a year. The households total final consumption expenditure declined by 0.5% in 2008, although early in the year a small rise was recorded which was followed by a strong decline in the last quarter. Social transfers in kind financed by general government decreased by 1.2%. The government consumption declined by 0.3%. The actual final consumption decreased by 0.6%. The volume of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) rose slightly, by 0,4%. The growth is mainly due to investments realized in real estate, renting and business activities (+6.2%) and agriculture, hunting and forestry (+12.6%). The volume of investments in manufacturing shows a 3.5% decline. Among the industries with the highest share in GFCF, the sharpest fall was detected in the public administration, defence and compulsory social security (-7%) and education (-4.3%). The total domestic use increased slightly faster than the GDP, by 0.7%. The balance of external trade shows a billion HUF surplus at current prices, with a slightly worsening terms of trade. The growth of the external trade slightly slowed down in 2008 from quarter to quarter compared to previous year, while at the end of the year it turned to a strong decrease. The volume of exports rose by 5.6%, of which the exports of goods increased by 5.8% and services by 4.5%. Imports rose faster, by 5.7%. Imports of goods increased by 5.1% and services by 9.6%. GNI amounted to billion HUF at current prices in 2008, and it was 1.1% higher in real terms than in the previous year. According to the preliminary data, the difference between GDP and GNI increased continuously since 2003, but it has stopped in While in 2007 GNI was 92.9% of GDP, it changed to 93.3% in Among transition items from GDP to GNI, balance of compensation of employees and dividends changed slightly compared to 2007 figures. At the same time, there was a significant change in the structure of reinvested earnings: resident enterprises reinvested 8.7% more earnings to the rest of the world, while non-resident enterprises reinvested 24% less earnings in Hungary. The balance of reinvested earnings decreased the level of GNI by 554 billion HUF in 2007, while this decreasing factor was only 194 billion HUF in There was a 10% difference between the growth rate of interest paid to the rest of the world and interest received from the rest of the world as a counter-effect in favour of interest paid to the rest of the world

4 Tables 1. Volume indices of gross domestic product and per capita gross domestic product, Gross value added by industries, Gross value added by sectors, Output by industries, Gross value added by industries, The final use of gross domestic product, Gross domestic product by final use, Economic accounts by sectors, Economic accounts by sectors, Gross domestic product (GDP) and gross national income (GNI) of Hungary,

5 1. Volume indices of gross domestic product and per capita gross domestic product, GDP volume indices Per capita GDP at current prices Year 1990=100.0 previous year=100.0 in HUF USD at exchange rates euro a) in purchasing power parities b) c) a) b) c) ECU until 1998, euro from Results of Eurostat's European Comparison Program. Data estimated by EUROSTAT. -5-

6 2. Gross value added by industries, Year Of which: Total economy Of which: (at purchasers' industries, total agriculture, mining, net prices) (at basic prices) hunting, forestry manufacturing, taxes and fishing electricity, gas services on products and water supply and construction Gross value added at current prices, million HUF Volume indices (previous year=100.0) x x x x x x x x x x x x x 7

7 3. Gross value added by sectors, Code Sectors At current prices million HUF structure, % Volume indices previous year = S.11 Non-financial corporations S.12 Financial corporations S.13 General government S.14 Households S.15 NPISHs GROSS VALUE ADDED Taxes less subsidies on products x x GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (at purchasers' prices) x S.11 Non-financial corporations S.12 Financial corporations S.13 General government S.14 Households S.15 NPISHs GROSS VALUE ADDED Taxes less subsidies on products x x GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (at purchasers' prices) x

8 4. Output by industries, NACE Code NACE Rev.1.1 Industries at current prices million HUF structure, % volume indices, 2006 =100.0 at current prices million HUF structure, % volume indices, 2007 =100.0 A+B Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing C+D+E Mining, manufacturing, electricity C Mining and quarrying D Manufacturing E Electricity, gas, steam and water supply F Construction G Wholesale and retail trade; repair H Hotels and restaurants I Transport, storage and communications J Financial intermediation K Real estate, business activities L+M+N Public administration, education, health L Public administration and defence, compulsory social security M Education N Health and social work O Other community, personal service activities A...O OUTPUT TOTAL (at basic prices) Taxes less subsidies on products x x x x OUTPUT (at purchasers' prices) x x

9 5. Gross value added by industries, NACE Code NACE Rev.1.1 Industries at current prices million HUF structure, % volume indices 2006 =100.0 at current prices million HUF structure, % volume indices 2007 =100.0 A+B Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing C+D+E Mining, manufacturing, electricity C Mining and quarrying D Manufacturing E Electricity, gas, steam and water supply F Construction G Wholesale and retail trade; repair H Hotels and restaurants I Transport, storage and communications J Financial intermediation K Real estate, business activities L+M+N Public administration, education, health L Public administration and defence, compulsory social security M Education N Health and social work O Other community, personal service activities GROSS VALUE ADDED Taxes less subsidies on products x x x x GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ( at purchasers' prices ) x x

10 6. The final use of gross domestic product, Of which: of which: Year Total domestic use actual final actual final actual final gross capital consumption, comsumption comsumption formation and total of households of government statistical discrepancy At current prices (million HUF) Volume indices (previous year=100.0)

11 6. The final use of gross domestic product, (continued) Of which:: gross fixed capital formation of which: changes in inventories and statistical discrepancy Exports Imports External balance of goods and services Year At current prices (million HUF) Volume indices (previous year=100.0) x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x

12 7. Gross domestic product by final use, Denomination at current prices volume indices 2006 =100.0 at current prices volume indices 2007 =100.0 million HUF structure, % million HUF structure, % Household final consumption expenditure (1) Government final consumption expenditure (2) Final consumption expenditure of non-profit institutions serving households (3) Final consumption expenditure, total (4=1+2+3) Social transfers in kind (5) Of which: from government (6) non-profit institutions serving households (7=3) Actual final consumption of households (8=1+6+7) Actual final consumption of government (9=2-6) Actual final consumption, total (10=4) Gross fixed capital formation (11) Changes in inventories (12) x x Statistical discrepancy (13) x x Gross capital formation, total (14= ) Domestic use, total (15=4+14) Exports (16) Imports (17) External balance of goods and services (18=16-17) x x GDP total (19=15+18)

13 8. Economic accounts by sectors, 2007 (HUF million) ESA code Denomination General government Nonfinancial corporation Financial corporation Housholds and NPISHs Rest of the world Non sectorized Production account / external account P.7 Imports of goods and services P.71 Imports of goods P.72 Iports of services P.6 Exports of goods and services P.61 Export of goods P.62 Export of services P.1 Output P.11 Market output P.12 Output for own final use P.13 Other non-market output P.131 Payments for other non-market output P.132 Other non-market output, other P.2 Intermediate consumption D.21-D.31 Taxes less subsidies on production B.1g Value added (gross) (P.1-P.2) B.11 External balance of goods and services K.1 Consumption of fixed capital B.1n Value added (net) (B.1g-K.1) Generation of income account B.1 n Value added (net) (B.1g-K.1) B.11 External balance of goods and services D.1 Compensation of employees, total D.11 Wages and salaries D.12 Employers' social contributions D.21 Taxes on products D.29 Other taxes on production D.31 Subsidies on products D.39 Other subsidies on production B.2 n Operating surplus, net B.3n Mixed income, net

14 8. Economic accounts by sectors, 2007 (continued) (HUF million) ESA code Denomination General government Nonfinancial corporation Financial corporation Housholds and NPISHs Rest of the world Non sectorized Allocation of primary income account B.2 n Operating surplus, net B.3n Mixed income, net D.1 Compensation of employees, total D.11 Wages and salaries D.12 Employers' social contributions D.21 Taxes on products D.29 Other taxes on production D.31 Subsidies on products D.39 Other subsidies on production D.4 Property income, received (+) D.4 Property income, paid (-) B.5 n Balance of primary incomes, net Secondary distribution of income account B.5 n Balance of primary incomes, net D.5 Current taxes on income, wealth D.61 Social contribution D.611 Actual social contribution D.612 Imputed social contributions D.62 Social benefits other than social transfer in kind D.7 Other current transfers, net B.6 n Disposable income, net

15 8. Economic accounts by sectors, 2007 (continued) (HUF million) ESA code Denomination Nonfinancial corporation Financial corporation General government Housholds and NPISHs Rest of the world Non sectorized Redistribution of income in kind account B.6n Disposable income, net D.63 Social transfers in kind B.7n Adjusted disposable income, net Use of income account B.6n Disposable income, net P.4 Actual final consumption P.3 Final consumption expenditure D.8 Adjustment for the change in net equity of households in pension funds reserves B.8n Saving, net B.12 Current external balance Capital account B.8n Saving, net B.12 Current external balance P.51 Gross fixed capital formation P.52 Changes in inventories** K.1 Consumption of fixed capital K.2 Acquisitions less disposals of non-produced non-financial assets D.9 Capital transfers, receivable (+) D.9 Capital transfers, payable (-) B.9 Net lending(+) / net borrowing(-)

16 9. Economic accounts by sectors, 2008 (HUF million) ESA code Denomination Nonfinancial corporation Financial corporation General government Housholds and NPISHs Rest of the world Non sectorized Production account / external account P.7 Imports of goods and services P.71 Imports of goods P.72 Iports of services P.6 Exports of goods and services P.61 Export of goods P.62 Export of services P.1 Output P.11 Market output P.12 Output for own final use P.13 Other non-market output P.131 Payments for other non-market output P.132 Other non-market output, other P.2 Intermediate consumption D.21-D.31 Taxes less subsidies on production B.1g Value added (gross) (P.1-P.2) B.11 External balance of goods and services K.1 Consumption of fixed capital B.1n Value added (net) (B.1g-K.1) Generation of income account B.1 n Value added (net) (B.1g-K.1) B.11 External balance of goods and services D.1 Compensation of employees, total D.11 Wages and salaries D.12 Employers' social contributions D.21 Taxes on products D.29 Other taxes on production D.31 Subsidies on products D.39 Other subsidies on production B.2 n Operating surplus, net B.3n Mixed income, net

17 9. Economic accounts by sectors, 2008 (continued) (HUF million) ESA code Denomination Nonfinancial corporation Financial corporation General government Housholds and NPISHs Rest of the world Non sectorized Allocation of primary income account B.2 n Operating surplus, net B.3n Mixed income, net D.1 Compensation of employees, total D.11 Wages and salaries D.12 Employers' social contributions D.21 Taxes on products D.29 Other taxes on production D.31 Subsidies on products D.39 Other subsidies on production D.4 Property income, received (+) D.4 Property income, paid (-) B.5 n Balance of primary incomes, net Secondary distribution of income account B.5 n Balance of primary incomes, net D.5 Current taxes on income, wealth D.61 Social contribution D.611 Actual social contribution D.612 Imputed social contributions D.62 Social benefits other than social transfer in kind D.7 Other current transfers, net B.6 n Disposable income, net

18 9. Economic accounts by sectors, 2008 (continued) (HUF million) ESA code Denomination Nonfinancial corporation Financial corporation General government Housholds and NPISHs Rest of the world Non sectorized Redistribution of income in kind account B.6n Disposable income, net D.63 Social transfers in kind B.7n Adjusted disposable income, net Use of income account B.6n Disposable income, net P.4 Actual final consumption P.3 Final consumption expenditure D.8 Adjustment for the change in net equity of households in pension funds reserves B.8n Saving, net B.12 Current external balance Capital account B.8n Saving, net B.12 Current external balance P.51 Gross fixed capital formation P.52 Changes in inventories** K.1 Consumption of fixed capital K.2 Acquisitions less disposals of non-produced non-financial assets D.9 Capital transfers, receivable (+) D.9 Capital transfers, payable (-) B.9 Net lending(+) / net borrowing(-)

19 10. Gross domestic product (GDP) and gross national income (GNI) of Hungary, Compensation of employees Property income of which: reinvested earnings on direct foreign investment Year GDP received from the rest of the world paid to the rest of the world net received from the rest of the world paid to the rest of the world net receivable from the rest of the world payable to the rest of the world net Taxes to the EU Subsides from the EU GNI The volume indices of GNI previous year=100.0 at current prices, million HUF x

20 Methodological notes At the time of the preliminary national accounts estimations for 2008, data sources necessary for the calculations are not fully complete. Next estimates for 2008 on the basis of comprehensive information will be published in September The publication including detailed data of homogeneous time series ( ) will be published later this year. The updated tables in the Stadat (predefined tables) and in the publication database will be available soon at HCSO s website. The system of national accounts is a system of macroeconomic statistical accounts summarising the country s economic activities by comparing the production of goods with their use. The methodology of HCSO follows the articles of European System of Accounts (ESA 95) and its amendments based on the integrated system prepared by the agency of the United Nations, Eurostat, IMF, OECD and the World Bank (System of National Accounts, SNA 93). Accordingly, it is harmonized with the methodology used in EU Member States. Glossary on terms Output consists of goods and services that are produced within an institutional unit to be purchased by other institutional units and of those that are produced for own final use. It is valued at basic prices in the national accounts. The (real) holding gain/loss on a given quantity of an asset (inventories, fixed assets, financial assets etc.) is defined as the change in the value for the owner of that asset as a result of a change in its price over/below the change in the general price level. Intermediate consumption consists of the value of goods and services consumed as inputs in the process of production, excluding the consumption of fixed capital. These inputs are purchased from other units. Intermediate consumption is valued at market prices. Gross domestic product is a concept of value added. It is the sum of gross value added of all resident producers (institutional sectors or industries) measured at basic prices, plus the balance of taxes and subsidies on products, which cannot be divided among the industries or sectors. So GDP is an aggregate value at market prices. GDP can be defined by three approaches: by production approach it is: + the sum of gross value added at basic prices + taxes on products subsidies on products by expenditure approach it is: + final consumption expenditure of households + final consumption expenditure of government + final consumption expenditure of non-profit institutions serving households + gross fixed capital formation

21 Gross domestic product (Preliminary estimation) + changes in inventories + exports imports by income approach it is 2 + wages and salaries + employers social contributions other subsidies on production + other taxes on production + gross operating surplus and mixed income + taxes on products subsidies on products Statistical discrepancy is the difference between GDP estimates by different approaches (between production and expenditure approaches etc.). Taxes less subsidies on products is the difference between taxes and subsidies connected with the acquisition, sale and any other transfers of goods and services (i.e. customs duties, consumption tax, value added tax, producer price subsidy and consumer price subsidy). Household consumption comprises the value of goods and services meeting the personal consumption requirements of households resident in Hungary. The sources of financing are household consumption expenditure, social transfers from the general government and social transfers in kind from non-profit institutions serving households. Collective consumption is a part of total final consumption which is intended to satisfy collective needs or needs of large sections of the community. This type of consumption should be financed exclusively by the general government sector due to the definition of the concept. Final consumption is the value of goods and services consumed by households and the community independently of the source of financing. Gross fixed capital formation: includes the value of purchased or own-produced tangible fixed assets and intangible fixed assets, the increase of used assets in value terms, the value of own-account production of fixed assets, capital transfer in kind from abroad and rental paid for financial leasing. Gross fixed capital formation is not reduced by the consumption of fixed capital (annual depreciation of the capital stock). Consumption of fixed capital: represents the amount of fixed assets used up during the considered period as a result of normal wear and tear and foreseeable obsolescence. Gross capital formation is the sum of gross fixed capital formation and change in inventories. Change in inventories: the value of change in the own-produced and purchased inventories of each sector, which occurs during the accounting period. External trade turnover is the export and import turnover of goods and services. Turnover of goods comprises general turnover based on foreign trade statistics (including the turnover between industrial customs free zones and the rest of the world), repair charges, and inward and outward processing. The turnover of services includes tourism as 2 Data in this publication were estimated by two approaches (production and use)

22 well as the balance of re-exports and re-imports. The external trade balance is the balance of export and import turnover of goods and services of the national economy. Prices used. The basic price is the amount receivable by the producer from the purchaser for a unit of a good or service produced as output minus any tax payable and plus any subsidy receivable on that unit as a consequence of its production or sale. Purchasers price is the amount actually paid by the purchaser, excluding any deductible VAT or similar deductible taxes. (It means it excludes taxes on purchased goods and services that are acquired for intermediate consumption and subsidies on products.) Gross national income (GNI) is equal to GDP less primary income payable to nonresident units plus primary income receivable from non-resident units and the balance of subsidies receivable from the EU and taxes payable to the EU. While GDP is a concept of value added, GNI is a concept of income (primary income). GNI = + gross domestic product (GDP) + primary income receivable from non-resident economic units primary income payable to non-resident economic units taxes payable to the EU + subsidies receivable from the EU Primary incomes are incomes that accrue to institutional units as a consequence of their involvement in the process of production or of their ownership of assets that may be needed for purposes of production (e.g. compensation of employees, dividends on invested capital, interest, etc.). Non-financial corporations sector covers all the corporations with and without legal entity, except sole proprietors. It includes those non-profit institutions, too, whose principal activity is mainly the production of market goods or non-financial services and so their costs are financed from their sales receipts. Financial corporations sector consists of all corporations principally engaged in financial intermediation. i.e. the National Bank of Hungary, commercial banks, savings cooperatives, credit co-operatives, specialized credit institutions, financial enterprises dealing with financial leasing, other credit-granting corporations, private pension funds, voluntary mutual pension funds, health and income-replacement funds, insurance companies, insurance unions, investment fund managers, security dealers etc. General government sector covers the units mainly financed by the budgets of the central government and local governments, extra-budgetary funds and social security funds. It also includes those non-profit institutions which are mainly financed by the state budget and public companies carrying out non-market activities ( MNV Zrt., NIF Zrt., ÁAK Zrt), as well. Household sector covers the activities of households both as consumers and, where appropriate, as producers. The latter category includes sole proprietors, production of households for their own final use and housing services by owner-occupied dwellings. Non-profit institutions serving households sector includes those non-profit institutions that are not controlled directly by the government and are mainly financed by fees and other contributions obtained mostly from private resources. Constant price estimations are calculated at the prices of previous years

23 Methodological improvements introduced with the second estimate for 2008 In January 2008 and 2009, during the GNI information visit of Eurostat, some methodological improvements were requested in order to better meet the requirements of ESA and other EU legislation. In response to this, five methodological improvements have been introduced. Furthermore, - in addition to the regular corrections of data two other improvements have been made. I. Methodological improvements 1. Exclusion of holding gains and losses on inventories The (real) holding gain/loss on a given quantity of an asset is defined as the change in the value for the owner of that asset as a result of a change in its price over/below the change in the general price level. In line with the international requirements, the estimation of holding gains on inventories is based on quarterly data. Quarterly data on opening and closing stocks from the bookkeeping of enterprises are deflated to the price level of the previous year with the aid of monthly producer price indices at two digit level breakdown of NACE. The difference between the resulting constant-price closing and opening stock equals the change in stock at constant prices. The change in stock at constant prices is inflated with the quarterly average price index. This way we have the change in inventories at current prices. The difference between the change in inventories at current prices and the change in stock at book value is equal to holding gain/loss. Holding gain/loss is eliminated only from the current price bookkeeping data, hence the volume index of GDP is not affected (because for the calculation of volume indices, weights of the previous year are used and the values at the prices of the previous year are divided by the current price data of the base year). 2. Exclusion of holding gains/losses from insurance technical reserves at insurance corporations When recording output of insurance services, according to ESA95 not only actual premiums and claims due in the accounting period but also property income attributed to policy holders earned from the investment of insurance technical reserves and changes in these reserves are taken into account. In the case of both the property income and the changes in technical reserves holding gains/losses have been eliminated. For this item, the changes are not intended to be backcasted before 2002, because the legislation prevailing in this period allowed only such a very strict investment policy for

24 the insurance companies which resulted in very low (smaller than one billion HUF per year) holding gain or loss. This methodological improvement has a neglible effect on the level of GDP in some years, however during three years it has an increasing effect of billion HUF. Elimination of holding gain or loss had an effect on output values, as well. Since the output of insurance companies should be allocated to user sectors, it changed the households consumption expenditures, too. Benefiting from the experiences of the compilation of supply and use tables, we made corrections to the households consumption data in order to equilibrate the production and expenditure sides of GDP. 3. Imputation of operating surplus for own account GFCF (mark up) The aim of this methodological improvement is to value the own account GFCF at market prices instead of the cost-based method applied in the bookkeeping. For having this correction done, the estimated cost-based figures had to be raised with the amount of the average operating surplus of similar market investments. In order to gain the mark up the average operating income/operating cost ratios were calculated at 4 digit level of NACE using the data from the business statistics surveys and the corporate tax returns. The cost-based figures were raised with this ratio. This methodological improvement increases the level of the GDP at current prices, but has no significant effect on GDP volumes. 4. Recording of entertainment, literary, and artistic originals in the national accounts /production, capital formation/ Entertainment, literary and artistic originals (henceforth: originals ) are recorded as output at the production side and as own account gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) at the expenditure side of GDP. Until now, these artistic works weren t completely recorded in Hungarian national accounts. They were not accounted for at the production side, while GFCF data at the production side partly covered them. Hence this improvement modified the two sides of GDP on a different way. We included estimates of entertainment, literary and artistic originals for TV and radio programmes, films, musical works and books. It was necessary to define the valuation method for each group of originals (either measure by production costs, or by modelling of income (royalty flows) based on the recommendation of Eurostat. In the course of the elaboration of the methodology the practises of other EU countries were also taken into account. In the case of the TV and radio programmes the values of originals are measured by production costs, including a mark-up for operating surplus. Sources of data are the National Statistical Data Collection Programme OSAP 1175/08 and 1174/05 questionnaires

25 The values of films are estimated using the turnover and attendance data of Hungarian movies in cinemas. Source of data is the National Statistical Data Collection Programme OSAP 1454/08 questionnaire. In the case of music works the estimates are based on the turnover data collected by Association of Hungarian Record Companies (MAHASZ), and the estimation of the royalty component in the purchaser s price of music mediums. The value of literature originals are estimated by modelling the royalty payments received by authors from sales of books. (sources of data are the annual reports of Association of Hungarian Publishers (MKKE) and HCSO data collection on sales) 5. Imputed rent for the holiday homes and garages The output of imputed dwelling services are estimated according to the user cost method. At the production side of GDP in the industry of Real estate activities, value added is calculated by deducting intermediate consumption from this output value. At the expenditure side of GDP, the total value of output is recorded as household consumption expenditure. For this estimation the consumption of fixed capital of owner-occupied dwellings, the expenditure on maintenance (without charges paid to public utility companies, with net insurance premium paid by owner occupants), the net value of dwelling stock and the imputed operating surplus of owner-occupied dwellings (based on an estimated rate for real return) are taken into account. The services of garages were already accounted indirectly in the estimation of owner-occupied dwelling services up to now. This value has been separated now, and the imputed rent on holiday homes was estimated and that of garages was re-estimated based on the data of the population census and dwelling statistics. Dwelling stock and the value of consumption of fixed capital were taken directly from the data of stock of fixed assets. The expenditures on maintenance were fully taken into account up to now, although they contained the expenditures charged for the holiday homes. These expenditures have been separated, and the imputed operating surplus by the user cost method was added. This new calculation method resulted in a GDP increase of 7 29 billion HUF at current prices. II. Other changes 1. Correction of data on agricultural inventories With the aim of further harmonisation between national accounts and agricultural accounts (EAA), the national accounts data have been replaced by the data of EAA at the expenditure side of GDP. At the production side EAA had already been taken into account earlier, therefore this correction does not effect GDP, but lowers the statistical discrepancy

26 2. Other corrections Besides the usual data corrections, as a result of the integration process of the Supply and Use Tables in the national accounts, the mining royalties recorded as intermediate cost in the business accounting were reclassified as property income paid to central government, according to ESA 95 rules. In addition however in lower magnitudes the compulsory contribution fee to the storage of crude oil and crude oil products recorded as expenditure in the business accounting was reclassified as intermediate consumption, in line with ESA 95 rules. As a result of these corrections the GDP at current prices rose by an annually different amount of billion HUF. The tables below shows the effect of all the above changes on the GDP at current prices. Year Holding gains or losses on inventories Effect of the changes on the production side of GDP Holding gains at insurance corporations Own account GFCF (mark up) Artistic originals Imputed rent of garages, holiday homes (at current prices, million HUF) Other changes Total

27 Effect of the changes on the expenditure side of GDP (at current prices, million HUF) Year Changes in inventories holding gains and losses integration of EAA data on inventories Gross fixed capital formation own account GFCF (mark up) artistic originals Households consumption expenditures imputed rent of garages, holiday homes holding gains at insurance corporations Other routine corrections Statistical discrepancy Total